b值在地震预测中的三类应用及其物理基础与须注意的问题   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

韩渭宾 《四川地震》2003,(1):1-5

将b值在地震预测中的直接应用归为三类：1）根据b值的动态变化预测地震。2）根据G－R律求出各级地震平均复发周期或年均发生率，推测未来一定时段如50年或100年内发生各级地震的危险性。3）根据G－R直线在横轴的截距，预测强余震的震级。讨论了这三种用法的物理基础及现有工作中容易出现的问题。  相似文献   

高维PP时间序列分析在地震预报中的应用   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

王琼  朱令人 《地震工程学报》2003,25(2):103-111

将投影寻踪(PP)与高维时间序列分析结合起来，建立了地震PP综合预测模型。并选取祁连山地区作研究区，做了未来三个月内最大震级的短期预测，经展望式检验，合格率(预测误差≤0．5或≤10％)≥80％。中根据实际需要提出建立一定震级门限(M≥4．0)的预测具有更好的效果。本预测模型还可增加自变量、维数和改变时间尺度，并运用到其他领域中。  相似文献   

邛崃4.5级地震与震后趋势判断     

袁海良  朱昌保  宋杰  高进  任寰 《地震地磁观测与研究》2003,24(4):80-83

邛崃地震发生后，成都市地震局很快做出反应，及时开展了地震考察并做出了正确的震后趋势判断，取得了较好的社会效益。  相似文献   

Inversion of receiver function by wavelet transformation     

吴庆举  田小波  张乃铃  李桂银  曾融生 《地震学报(英文版)》2003,16(6):616-623

Introduction Receiver function has been extensively applied in studying S wave velocity of crust and up-per mantle for about 20 years (Owens, et al, 1987; LIU, et al, 1996), which is a time series ob-tained by the deconvolution of vertical component from horizontal component for teleseismic P waveform. Receiver function represents the teleseismic P plane wave response of crust and upper mantle beneath seismic station, from which the source and propagation effects are removed. Receiver funct…  相似文献   

Lateral tidal mixing in the Antarctic marginal seas     

Aike Beckmann  Adriene F. Pereira 《Ocean Dynamics》2003,53(1):21-26

Tidal mixing plays an important role in the modification of dense water masses around the Antarctic continent. In addition to the vertical (diapycnal) mixing in the near-bottom layers, lateral mixing can also be of relevance in some areas. A numerical tide simulation shows that lateral tidal mixing is not uniformly distributed along the shelf break. In particular, strong mixing occurs all along the Ross Sea and Southern Weddell Sea shelf breaks, while other regions (e.g., the western Weddell Sea) are relatively quiet. The latter regions correspond surprisingly well to areas where indications for cross-shelf exchange of dense water masses have been found. The results suggest that lateral tidal mixing may account for the relatively small contribution of Ross Sea dense water masses to Antarctic Bottom Water.  相似文献   

地图数字化数据处理的相关平差与精度分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

余晓红 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2003,28(5):555-558

根据地图数字化坐标转换方法、转换所得地面坐标平差方法 ,得到数字化数据处理的几种方案 ,对不同方案的计算结果进行比较 ,讨论了相关性对平差结果的影响 ,并对数字化数据的精度评定进行了分析  相似文献   

特定基准下的异常位移诊断   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

独知行  欧吉坤  柴艳菊  韩保民 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2003,28(5):569-572

针对地壳运动和变形研究中存在的位移资料的参考基准、异常位移等问题，主要讨论了位移资料特定基准的转换和异常位移诊断的数学模型——特定基准转换模型为七参数相似变换模型，转换保持了变形体内部相对位置关系不变，并使转换后的位移矢量更能体现区域内的相对运动信息；异常位移诊断采用拟准检定法(QUAD)，在选定拟准观测的情况下，使得位移真误差具有明显的分群性；模拟算例结果显示，本文采用的线性变换模型、粗差拟准检定法都表现出很好的效果。  相似文献   

GPS测定坐标转换至地方坐标   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

王解先  王军  陆彩萍 《全球定位系统》2003,28(4):7-10

GPS测量得到的是WGS-84中的地心空间直角坐标，而工程施工中通常使用地方独立坐标系，要求得到地方平面坐标。平面转换模型原理简单，数值稳定可靠，但只能适用于小范围的GPS测量。空间转换模型可用于大范围GPS测量，分为七参数转换和三参数转换两种。鉴于北京54坐标的大地高通常不能精确已知，对这两种参数转换方法得到的平面坐标的精度进行了比较，得出大地高精度主要表现为对高程的影响，对平面坐标影响较小的结论，同时，还讨论了七参数与三参数对转换结果的影响。  相似文献   

Recent Precipitation Trends in Hungary in the Context of Larger Scale Climatic Changes   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Domonkos  Peter 《Natural Hazards》2003,29(2):255-271

The time series of monthly precipitation totals from 14 Hungarian observing stations (1901–1998) were analysed to reveal the long term changes in precipitation characteristics occurred in the 20th century. A particular attention was given to the changes in the recent decades and their links with the larger scale climatic and circulation changes over Europe and the Atlantic.The statistical significancesof systematic changes are controlled by linear trend analysis and the Mann–Kendall test. The long term fluctuations are illustrated applying a 15-point Gaussian filter on the time series. The Standardised Precipitation Index is used to evaluate the changes in the drought event frequency. The relationships with larger scale changes are mostly discussed relying on contemporary papers, and the Grosswetterlagen Catalogue is used as well.The annual precipitation total decreased by 15–20% in Hungary during the 20th century. The decline is substantial in both halves of the century, but the precipitation sums in the transition seasons declined in the first 50 years, and the winter precipitation decreased in the latest decades. The precipitation total of the period November–February declined significantly in the last 50 years. In the same time the mean winter value of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) increased, the positions of the main pressure patterns over the Atlantic are shifted northeastward, and lot of other coherent changes detected in the winter climate of the European–Atlantic region. The mean summer precipitation total has hardly changed, but the frequency of summer drought events increased. There are some signs of a shift of the Hungarian summer climate towards a Mediterranean like climate.  相似文献   

Stepwise Conditional Transformation for Simulation of Multiple Variables   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Oy Leuangthong  Clayton V. Deutsch 《Mathematical Geology》2003,35(2):155-173

Most geostatistical studies consider multiple-related variables. These relationships often show complex features such as nonlinearity, heteroscedasticity, and mineralogical or other constraints. These features are not handled by the well-established Gaussian simulation techniques. Earth science variables are rarely Gaussian. Transformation or anamorphosis techniques make each variable univariate Gaussian, but do not enforce bivariate or higher order Gaussianity. The stepwise conditional transformation technique is proposed to transform multiple variables to be univariate Gaussian and multivariate Gaussian with no cross correlation. This makes it remarkably easy to simulate multiple variables with arbitrarily complex relationships: (1) transform the multiple variables, (2) perform independent Gaussian simulation on the transformed variables, and (3) back transform to the original variables. The back transformation enforces reproduction of the original complex features. The methodology and underlying assumptions are explained. Several petroleum and mining examples are used to show features of the transformation and implementation details.  相似文献