极端天气气候事件监测与预测研究进展及其应用综述   总被引：8，自引：2，他引：6  

任福民  高辉  刘绿柳  宋艳玲  高荣  王遵娅  龚志强  王永光  陈丽娟  李清泉  柯宗建  孙丞虎  贾小龙 《气象》2014,40(7):860-874

极端天气气候事件(简称"极端事件")分为单站极端事件和区域性极端事件。本文回顾了极端事件的研究进展,首先回顾了单站极端温度、极端降水和干旱事件的观测研究及相关指数,进而对近年来不断增多的区域性极端事件研究做了简要回顾,最后还回顾了极端事件气候预测研究进展。同时,对国内外在极端事件气候监测和预测业务现状进行了初步总结,并指出:在极端事件气候监测方面中国的业务产品较丰富,并率先开展了针对区域性极端事件的监测业务,但在产品表现形式上缺乏统一组织,特别是英文产品表现力严重不足;在极端事件气候预测方面,国家气候中心发展了两种方法:一个是基于物理统计的BP-CCA和OSR的干旱预测方法,另一个基于国家气候中心月动力延伸预报模式(DERF)的高温预测方法。最后,对极端事件监测和预测业务发展及相关科学问题给出展望,指出应根据极端事件的业务需求继续加强相关研究和业务能力建设。  相似文献   

Weather extremes and street life in India—Implications of Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping as a new tool for semi-quantitative impact assessment and ranking of adaptation measures     

《Global Environmental Change》2014

The potential impacts of progressing climate change are alarming. Some adverse consequences are now unavoidable and adaptation measures are increasingly needful. This poses enormous challenges for emerging megacities in the Global South, which barely manage in current weather conditions. This paper introduces Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping as a new tool for structured, semi-quantitative assessments of climate change impacts and adaptation measures.Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping is used to evaluate differences in sensitivities to heatwaves and rainstorms across socio-economic groups and for the ranking of useful adaptation options, based on 188 individual interviews to the impacts of extreme weather events in Hyderabad, India. The results of this multi-stakeholder assessment indicate that rainstorms affect low-income residents more than heatwaves, while the opposite is true for medium-income respondents. The latter are also less seriously affected by extreme weather in general. Profession, though, not income determines the kind of impact that people feel most affected by. Individual characteristics like age and gender do not significantly explain differences in the data, but religion does. This is because, in Hyderabad, Muslims live in the older, less serviced and more affected parts of the city. However, semi-quantitative scenario analyses suggest that, under future climate change, many parts of the city will become increasingly exposed to the effects of extreme weather. Planned investments in urban infrastructure will be seriously challenged by climate change and preventive adaptation measures are urgently needed to at least maintain the current level of quality of life. Investments in the health infrastructure appear to be most effective in reducing the impact of heatwaves and investments in the traffic infrastructure most effective in reducing the impact of rainstorms. However, looking at heat and rain events together—which is realistic as they are both projected to increase and often occur in the same year—reveals that investments in water infrastructure and management have greatest potential to reduce impacts across all localities and on all social groups, particularly the lower-income classes. This is because first-order impacts caused by inadequate water infrastructure often give rise to second- or third-order impacts. Addressing the root cause is the most effective way to break cause-and-effect chains and prevent proliferation of negative consequences. Similar studies are suggested in other cities in order to support adaptation mainstreaming in complex urban environments. Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping proved a useful, semi-quantitative tool for climate change impact and adaptation assessments.  相似文献   

Stratigraphy and facies development of the marine Late Devonian near the Boulongour Reservoir,northwest Xinjiang,China     

《Journal of Asian Earth Sciences》2014

Late Devonian to Early Carboniferous stratigraphic units within the ‘Zhulumute’ Formation, Hongguleleng Formation (stratotype), ‘Hebukehe’ Formation and the Heishantou Formation near the Boulongour Reservoir in northwestern Xinjiang are fossil-rich. The Hongguleleng and ‘Hebukehe’ formations are biostratigraphically well constrained by microfossils from the latest Frasnian linguiformis to mid-Famennian trachytera conodont biozones. The Hongguleleng Formation (96.8 m) is characterized by bioclastic argillaceous limestones and marls (the dominant facies) intercalated with green spiculitic calcareous shales. It yields abundant and highly diverse faunas of bryozoans, brachiopods and crinoids with subordinate solitary rugose corals, ostracods, trilobites, conodonts and other fish teeth. The succeeding ‘Hebukehe’ Formation (95.7 m) consists of siltstones, mudstones, arenites and intervals of bioclastic limestone (e.g. ‘Blastoid Hill’) and cherts with radiolarians. A diverse ichnofauna, phacopid trilobites, echinoderms (crinoids and blastoids) together with brachiopods, ostracods, bryozoans and rare cephalopods have been collected from this interval. Analysis of geochemical data, microfacies and especially the distribution of marine organisms, which are not described in detail here, but used for facies analysis, indicate a deepening of the depositional environment at the Boulongour Reservoir section. Results presented here concern mainly the sedimentological and stratigraphical context of the investigated section. Additionally, one Late Devonian palaeo-oceanic and biotic event, the Upper Kellwasser Event is recognized near the section base.  相似文献   

青海玉树断裂带地震落石的地震地质意义     

田婷婷  吴中海  马志邦  冯卉  尼玛次仁  蒋瑶  张绪教  张铎 《地质通报》2014,33(4):567-577

2010年青海玉树Ms 7.1级大地震引发了一系列次生地质灾害,其中地震落石是除地震滑坡外沿断裂带及其邻侧最常见的现象。对玉树震区落石的调查发现,该区多处存在非常典型的多期地震落石分布现象,指示该区地震落石的发育与其他古地震现象类似,具有多期性和一定的原地复发性。实地调查表明,该区地震落石分布的主要特征为:多集中发育在活动断裂带附近的陡峭基岩斜坡下方,分布零散,且滚动较远,并常与古地震滑坡相伴生。初步获得的8个地震落石钙膜U系测年结果分布在距今6030±300a BP、4720±210a BP、3530±490~3560±280a BP、2010±160a BP、1090±70a BP、760±20a BP和230±20a BP年龄段,与该区古地震探槽和滑坡反映的地震事件比较吻合,进一步揭示玉树断裂带附近在全新世中晚期发生过多期可导致地表产生地震落石的事件。同时也说明,地震落石及其钙膜测年是特别值得进一步探索的潜在古地震研究方法或途径。  相似文献   

Geochronologic and paleontologic evidence for a Pacific–Atlantic connection during the late Oligocene–early Miocene in the Patagonian Andes (43–44°S)     

《Journal of South American Earth Sciences》2014

Cenozoic marine strata occur in the western, eastern, and central parts of the North Patagonian Andes between ∼43°S and 44°S. Correlation of these deposits is difficult because they occur in small and discontinuous outcrops and their ages are uncertain. In order to better understand the age and sedimentary environment of these strata, we combined U–Pb (LA-MC-ICPMS) geochronology on detrital zircons with sedimentologic and paleontologic (foraminifers and molluscs) studies. Sedimentologic analyses suggest that the Puduhuapi Formation on the western flank of the Andean Cordillera was deposited in a deep-marine setting, the Vargas Formation in the central part of the Andes was deposited at outer-neritic or bathyal depths, and the La Cascada Formation on the eastern flank of the range was deposited in a shallow-marine environment. Geochronologic and paleontologic results indicate that the three marine units were deposited during the late Oligocene-early Miocene interval, although it is not clear whether this occurred during one or more marine incursions in the area. The alluvial(?) conglomeratic deposits of the La Junta Formation, exposed in the proximity of the Vargas Formation outcrops, have a maximum depositional age of ∼26 Ma and could have been deposited during the initial stage of subsidence that affected this region prior to the marine transgression over this area. The occurrence of both Pacific and Atlantic molluscan taxa in the La Cascada and Vargas formations suggests that a marine strait connected both oceans during the accumulation of these units. The new data on the age of the Puduhuapi, Vargas, and La Cascada formations indicate that these units may correlate with lower Miocene marine deposits in the forearc of central and southern Chile (Navidad Formation and equivalent units) and on the eastern flank of the Patagonian Andes (Río Foyel Formation and equivalent units). A late Oligocene−early Miocene age for these marine deposits is a reliable maximum age for the deformation and uplift of the North Patagonian Andes.  相似文献   

尺度转换视角下易武斗茶会的构建与变迁     

唐雪琼  徐海妙  尹铎 《地理科学》2022,42(1):136-142

选取易武斗茶会为研究案例,以尺度转换为理论分析工具,通过参与式观察法和半结构化访谈法,深入分析易武斗茶会的发展历程并展示推动其发展演变的多元社会主体的不同行动与实践。研究发现：① 易武斗茶会的演变过程中存在2种尺度转换的方式,一种是为迎合普洱茶市场细分而进行的尺度下推,另一种是根据地方发展需求而进行的尺度上推。② 易武斗茶会尺度转换是在地方政府的推动、茶企的支持、茶农的配合以及茶客的偏好下共同驱动的。③ 多元主体的行动在推动易武斗茶会尺度转换的过程中满足了各自群体的利益诉求,地方依凭茶叶经济实现了本土发展。从节事的角度对中国茶文化进行深入分析研究,为茶村如何通过地方性节事活动实现本土发展提供理论依据与案例借鉴。  相似文献   

1637—1643年华北地区极端干旱事件中的粮食危机     

孟佳颖 《地域研究与开发》2022,41(1):169-174

粮食作为自然生态系统与社会经济系统的关联点,能够有效地揭示极端干旱事件对自然-经济-社会复合生态系统影响的过程和机理。以粮价异动为切入点,通过粮价通胀指数和“无透雨”的持续时间,分析农业旱情及其对粮食生产的影响,对1637—1643年华北地区极端干旱事件中的粮食安全进行深入剖析。结果显示:华北地区无透雨天数超过150 d,年降水量与5—9月降水量的距平值均≤-30%,水分异常短缺,土壤严重失墒,危及粮食生产安全。因此,降水量距平值≤-30%是华北地区粮食生产安全的临界阈值。此次极端干旱事件是历史同类事件之最,连续无透雨日数最长,地表径流枯竭记录最多,水资源的短缺导致伴生灾害相继发生,超过生态系统的忍耐极限,粮食生长期缩短,减产歉收,绝产绝收,粮食供给链条断裂。粮价通胀指数最低9.50,最高26.70;货币发行与粮食供给失衡,通货膨胀严重,粮价飞涨,市场倒闭,粮食安全体系崩塌,自然-经济-社会复合生态系统发生质变成为历史必然。  相似文献   

ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS ON HUMAN SETTLF, MENT IN THE CHANGJIANG RIVER DELTA IN NEOLITHIC AGE   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

ZHANGQiang LIUChun-ling ZHUCheng JIANGTong 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2004,14(3):239-244

Dating data, altitude of Neolithic sites, climatic changes from sedimentary records and previous research results were collected and analyzed to detect possible connections between climatic changes and human activities in the Changjiang River Delta in the Neolithic Age. The results indicated that hydrological changes greatly impacted the human activities in the study region. Low-lying geomorphology made the floods and sea level changes become the important factors affecting human activities, especially the altitude change of human settlements. People usually moved to higher places during the periods characterized by high sea level and frequent floods to escape the negative influences from water body expansion, which resulted in cultural hiatus in certain profiles. However, some higher-altitude settlements were not the results of climatic changes but the results of social factors, such as religious ceremony and social status. Therefore, further research will be necessary for the degree and types of impacts of climatic changes on human activities in the study area at that time.  相似文献   

Extreme storms in Malmö, Sweden     

Lars Bengtsson  Stefan Milloti 《水文研究》2010,24(24):3462-3475

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A detailed luminescence chronology of the Lower Volga loess-palaeosol sequence at Leninsk     

《Quaternary Geochronology》2022

We present a detailed luminescence chronology of the loess-palaeosol sequences in the Lower Volga region of Russia at the Leninsk site – an important palaeogeographic archive describing the climate and environmental conditions of regressive stages of the Caspian Sea. The chronology of these sediments has received very little attention compared to the under- and overlying marine deposits. The degree of bleaching was addressed by making use of the differential resetting rates of quartz and feldspar. Our results show that the quartz OSL and feldspar pIRIR_50,290 signals were sufficiently bleached before deposition and uncertainties in bleaching have a negligible impact on the reliability of the luminescence ages. The combined quartz OSL and K-feldspar pIRIR_50,290 chronology constrains the main stages of the Northern Caspian Lowland evolution during the Late Quaternary. During early MIS 5 (130–120 ka), the northern part of the Lower Volga was covered by a shallow brackish water estuary of the warm Late Khazarian Caspian Sea transgression. After ∼122 ka, the Volga incised the Northern Caspian Lowland surface following sea-level decrease and the start of subaerial conditions at Leninsk. Loess accumulation rate increased towards the end of MIS 5 and two palaeosols of presumably MIS 5с and MIS 5a age formed, exhibiting features evidencing a dry, cold climate, influenced by long seasonal flooding by the Volga River. Cryogenesis affecting the MIS 5a soil is a regional phenomenon and is dated to between ∼70 and 90 ka. The overlying thick Atelian loess unit formed during the cold periods of MIS 4 and MIS 3. Clear erosional features at the top of the Atelian loess are constrained by luminescence to ∼35 to ∼24 ka, allowing reconstruction of erosion of 150–200 cm of loess.  相似文献