东海海啸反问题预报模式研究——以日本“3·11”海啸为例     

应超  于普兵  穆锦斌  周华民 《海洋预报》2015,32(3):36-42

采用COMCOT数值模式,将日本东海岸划分为18个单位震源,建立了日本东海岸海啸数据库并用非负约束的最小二乘法建立反问题预报模式。将本模式应用于日本"3·11"海啸,计算所得的海啸初始水位有10 m的抬高与3 m的降低,与前人研究结果基本一致,预报的浮标水位与实测资料符合良好。对比浙江省近岸潮位站实测海啸波高,预报值与实测值偏差较大。若采用反问题反演的震源,通过COMCOT非线性模式求解近岸水位,可以大幅提高预报精度。  相似文献   

Propagation of the Storegga tsunami into ice‐free lakes along the southern shores of the Barents Sea     

Anders Romundset  Stein Bondevik 《第四纪科学杂志》2011,26(5):457-462

Deposits in coastal lakes in northernmost Norway reveal that the Storegga tsunami propagated well into the Barents Sea ca. 8100–8200 years ago. A tsunami deposit – found in cores from five coastal lakes located near the North Cape in Finnmark – rests on an erosional unconformity and consists of graded sand layers and re‐deposited organic remains. Rip‐up clasts of lake mud, peat and soil suggest strong erosion of the lake floor and neighbouring land. Inundation reached at least 500 m inland and minimum vertical run‐up has been reconstructed to 3–4 m. In this part of the Arctic coastal lakes are usually covered by >1 m of solid lake ice in winter. The significant erosion and deposition of rip‐up clasts indicate that the lakes were ice free and that the ground was probably not frozen. We suggest that the Storegga slide and ensuing tsunami happened sometime in the summer season, between April and October. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Potential Tsunami Hazard Associated with the Kerepehi Fault,Firth of Thames,New Zealand     

Chick  L. M.  De Lange  W. P.  Healy  T. R. 《Natural Hazards》2001,24(3):309-318

Geophysical data have identified four submarine segments of the Kerepehi Fault, roughly bisecting a back-arc rift (Hauraki Rift). These segments have been traced through the shallow waters of the Firth of Thames, which lies at the southern end of the Hauraki Gulf, New Zealand. No historical or paleotsunami data are available to assess the tsunami hazard of these fault segments.Analysis of the fault geometry, combined with paleoseismic data for three further terrestrial segments of the Fault, suggest Most Credible Earthquake (MCE) moment magnitudes of 6.5–7.1. Due to the presence of thick deposits of soft sediment, and thesemi-confined nature of the Firth, the MCE events are considered capable of generating tsunami or tsunami-like waves. Two numerical models (finite element and finite difference), and an empirical method proposed by Abe (1995), were used to predict maximum tsunami wave heights. The numerical models also modelled the tsunami propagation.The MCE events were found not to represent a major threat to the large metropolitan centre of Auckland City (New Zealand's largest population centre). However, the waves were a threat to small coastal communities around the Firth, including the township of Thames, and 35,000 ha of low-lying land along the southern shores of the Firth of Thames.The Abe method was found to provide a quick and useful method of assessing the regional tsunami height. However, for sources in water depths < 25 m the Abe method predicted heights 2–4 times larger than the numerical models. Since the numerical models were not intended for simulating tsunami generation in such shallow water, the Abe results are probably a good guide to the maximum wave heights.  相似文献   

Numerical simulation of the 1992 Flores tsunami: Interpretation of tsunami phenomena in northeastern Flores Island and damage at Babi Island   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Fumihiko Imamura  Edison Gica  Tomoyuki Takahashi  Nobuo Shuto 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1995,144(3-4):555-568

Numerical analysis of the 1992 Flores Island, Indonesia earthquake tsunami is carried out with the composite fault model consisting of two different slip values. Computed results show good agreement with the measured runup heights in the northeastern part of Flores Island, except for those in the southern shore of Hading Bay and at Riangkroko. The landslides in the southern part of Hading Bay could generate local tsunamis of more than 10 m. The circular-arc slip model proposed in this study for wave generation due to landslides shows better results than the subsidence model, It is, however, difficult to reproduce the tsunami runup height of 26.2 m at Riangkroko, which was extraordinarily high compared to other places. The wave propagation process on a sea bottom with a steep slope, as well as landslides, may be the cause of the amplification of tsunami at Riangkroko. The simulation model demonstrates that the reflected wave along the northeastern shore of Flores Island, accompanying a high hydraulic pressure, could be the main cause of severe damage in the southern coast of Babi Island.  相似文献   

Tsunami deposits from the 1993 Southwest Hokkaido earthquake and the 1640 Hokkaido Komagatake eruption,northern Japan   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Yuichi Nishimura  Naomichi Miyaji 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1995,144(3-4):719-733

The southwest Hokkaido tsunami of July 12th, 1993, left continuous onshore sand deposits along the west coast of Oshima Peninsuka, Hokkaido, northern Japan. We investigated spatial distribution and lithofacies of the new tsunami deposits for its identification of ancient tsunami deposits. An eyewitness acount and bent plants helped our interpretation of the onshore tsunami behavior. We regard the following properties as typical of the coastal tsunami sand deposits: (1) The deposits cover the surface almost continuously on gentle topography. (2) Deposit thicknesses and mean grain sizes descrease with distance from the sea. (3) Deposit thicknesses and lithofacies vary greatly across local surface undulation. (4) Graded bedding reflecting tsunami runup and backwash is present in thick deposits. (5) The deposits are widely distributed along the coast and extend inland several tens of meters to 100 m. We examined a candidate for the paleo-tsunami deposits associated with the 1640 Komagatake eruption, and confirmed that the similar patterns are typical of ancient tsunami deposits.  相似文献   

Magnitude scale for the Central American tsunamis     

Tokutaro Hatori 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1995,144(3-4):471-479

Based on the tsunami data in the Central American region, the regional characteristic of tsunami magnitude scales is discussed in relation to earthquake magnitudes during the period from 1900 to 1993. Tsunami magnitudes on the Imamura-Iida scale of the 1985 Mexico and 1992 Nicaragua tsunamis are determined to bem=2.5, judging from the tsunami height-distance diagram. The magnitude values of the Central American tsunamis are relatively small compared to earthquakes with similar size in other regions. However, there are a few large tsunamis generated by low-frequency earthquakes such as the 1992 Nicaragua earthquake. Inundation heights of these unusual tsunamis are about 10 times higher than those of normal tsunamis for the same earthquake magnitude (M _s =6.9–7.2). The Central American tsunamis having magnitudem>1 have been observed by the Japanese tide stations, but the effect of directivity toward Japan is very small compared to that of the South American tsunamis.  相似文献   

Finite element modeling of the July 12, 1993 Hokkaido Nansei-Oki tsunami   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Edward P. Myers  António M. Baptista 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1995,144(3-4):769-801

A fault plane model and a finite element hydrodynamic model are applied to the simulation of the Hokkaido Nansei-Oki tsunami of July 12, 1993. The joint performance of the models is assessed based on the overall ability to reproduce observed tsunami waveforms and to preserve mass and energy during tsunami propagation. While a number of observed characteristics of the waveforms are satisfactorily reproduced (in particular, amplitudes and arrival times at tidal gauges relatively close to the source, and general patterns of energy concentration), others are only marginally so (notably, wave periods at the same gauges, and wave heights along Okushiri); differences between observations and simulations are traceable to both the fault plane and the hydrodynamic models. Nonnegligible losses of energy occur throughout the simulated tsunami propagation. These losses seem to be due to a combination of factors, including numerical damping and possible deficiencies of the shallow water equations in preserving energy.  相似文献   

Discovery of an ancient tsunami deposit in coastal sequences of southwest Japan: Verification of a large historic tsunami   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Koji  Minoura Takashi  Nakata 《Island Arc》1994,3(1):66-72

Abstract A tsunamigenic sand layer is present in coastal sequences of the Masuda Plain, southwest Japan. The radiometric age of the layer has been estimated at 930 ± 80 years BP. It is proposed that the deposit is the product of a large historic tsunami believed to have occurred in the Japan Sea on 16 June 1026 AD.  相似文献   

Neogene Through Quaternary Tectonic Reactivation of SW Iberian Passive Margin   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

N.?ZitelliniEmail author  M.?Rovere  P.?Terrinha  F.?Chierici  L.?Matias  Bigsets Team 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2004,161(3):565-587

Southwest Portugal, the Gulf of Cadiz and Morocco are under the potential threat of natural hazards linked to seismicity and tsunami generation. We report the results of two multi-channel seismic (MCS) surveys carried out in 1992 and 1998 along the continental margin and oceanic crust of SW Iberia. This MCS data set shows the evidence of the compressional deformation which involves both the continental and the oceanic crust of the study area. The area of deformation extends from the southern border of the Tagus Abyssal Plain to the Seine Abyssal Plain, encompassing the continental margin of SW Portugal. Most of the structures observed are probably related to a Mid-Miocene phase of Africa-Europe plate convergence. In this paper we discuss the recent advances on the identification of the tectonic structures that are still active and that may generate great earthquakes and tsunamis. The tectonic structures identified are located respectively at the Guadalquivir Bank, along the eastern border of the Horseshoe Abyssal Plain and along the southern continental slope of SW Portugal.BIGSETS Team: L. Mendes Victor, C. Corela, A. Ribeiro, D. Cordoba, J. J. Danobeitia, E. Grácia, R. Bartolomé, R. Nicolich, G. Pellis, B. DellaVedova, R. Sartori, L. Torelli, A. Correggiari, L. Vigliotti.  相似文献   

Tsunami Hazard in the Eastern Mediterranean: Strong Earthquakes and Tsunamis in the Corinth Gulf,Central Greece     

Papadopoulos  Gerassimos A. 《Natural Hazards》2003,29(3):437-464

The exhaustive review of a long number of historical documents, books, reports,scientific and press reports, instrumental recordings, previous catalogues andpersonal field observations, concluded with the production of a completely newtsunami catalogue for the Corinth Gulf, Central Greece, which is arranged in theformat adopted by the GITEC group for the new European Tsunami Catalogue.The catalogue is presented in three sections: the Quick-Look Table, the Quick-LookAccounts File and the References File. An Appendix explains why some particularsea disturbances were not included in the new catalogue although they were consideredas tsunami events by previous researchers. Past history clearly shows that most tsunamis in the Corinth Gulf are produced by strong (Ms 5.5) offshore and near shore earthquakes. However, seismic or aseismic sliding of coastal and submarine sediments is a significant factor in tsunamigenesis. Calculations based on the random model indicate that the probability for at least one tsunami occurrence of intensity TI 2 TI 3 and TI 4 within 50 years equals 0.851, 0.747 and 0.606, respectively. From the intensity–frequency relationship the mean return period of tsunami intensity TI 2, TI 3 and TI 4 equals to 16, 40 and 103 years. The tsunami geographicaldistribution, however, is non-random with a clear trend for the tsunamigenesis todecrease drastically from west to east within the Corinth Gulf. In fact, the probabilityfor a strong earthquake to cause a tsunami of TI 3 in the Corinth Gulf consideredas an entity is 0.35, while in the western part of the Gulf it goes up to 0.55. Therefore, the rapid and accurate determination of the earthquake focal parameters is of great importance in an algorithm of a real-time tsunami warning system in the Corinth Gulf.  相似文献