从光谱指数到融合数据集的全球植被遥感数据产品     

邱思静  胡涛  胡熠娜  丁子涵  刘焱序  彭建 《地理学报》2022,77(5):1102-1119

遥感对地观测为理解陆地植被动态与全球环境变化规律提供了数据基础,基于卫星观测的全球植被遥感数据产品近年来层出不穷,但缺乏基于数据使用者视角的系统梳理。本文回顾了全球植被遥感数据产品的发展历程,梳理了相关卫星计划及对应数据产品,分析了从植被光谱指数到生物物理特征参量、传统光学遥感反演到叶绿素荧光及星载微波反演产品、从单一传感器生产到多数据源—多数据集融合产品的发展脉络,阐述了全球植被遥感数据产品的来源、特征与关联关系。认为当前全球植被遥感数据产品的生产与应用存在一定脱节,遥感产品精度制约了对地球系统的深入理解。全球植被遥感数据产品正从宏观状态监测向专业化、精细化、标准化转变,建议未来制备全球遥感数据产品应充分利用目前已积累的长时序观测数据,融合多源观测资料,提升现有数据集的时空分辨率、精度及连续性;注重提高特殊区域与特定类型生态系统的反演精度,加强多维植被特征的一体化监测;建立全球植被产品数据共享平台,提供标准的全流程数据处理与分发服务,将数据不确定性信息高效、清晰提供给用户。  相似文献   

PolInSAR森林高度反演中方法及波段选择引起的不确定性分析     

张庭苇  姬永杰  张王菲 《遥感学报》2022,26(10):1963-1975

森林高度是反映森林资源数量和质量的重要参数,极化干涉合成孔径雷达PolInSAR （Polarimetric Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry）技术在森林高度反演中极具潜力。由于森林散射特征受波长影响明显,由此引起的散射机理差异使得基于PolInSAR技术反演的森林高度结果具有很大的不确定性。为了定量化该不确定性的影响,本文以模拟森林场景为例,对PolInSAR技术森林高度反演中常用的4种方法——极化相位中心高度估测法、复相干相位中心差分法、复相干幅度反演法以及相干幅度、相位联合反演法,以及它们在常用的4个微波波段P、L、C和X中的森林高度估测结果进行了分析;明确了匀质森林场景中,算法、波段选择引起的森林高度估测结果的不确定性。研究结果表明：在森林场景基本一致的情况下,估测算法的选择直接影响森林高度估测结果,其中复相干幅度反演法在4个波段的估测结果中精度均最高,但各估测点的估测结果离散度及不确定度较大。波长对4类估测方法估测结果的影响差异明显：复相干幅度反演法的反演结果几乎不受波长的影响,而相干幅度、相位联合反演法受波长影响明显,在P和L波段反演结果中精度较高,在C和X波段反演结果中精度降低明显。此外,以传统的交叉极化（HV）相位代表冠层散射相位中心,水平同极化与垂直同极化的相位差（HH-VV）代表地表散射相位中心,采用复相干相位中心差分法进行森林高度估测会出现严重低估现象。估测结果不确定度具有波长和算法选择依赖性,在C和X波段采用复相干相位中心差分法估测结果不确定度最低,在P和L波段采用极化相位中心高度估测法估测结果不确定度最低,而复相干幅度反演法估测结果则在多个波段中的不确定度均最高。  相似文献   

Earthquake disaster risk index for Canadian cities using Bayesian belief networks     

《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2013,7(2):128-140

Devastation observed from global earthquakes highlights the need for a decision-making tool to aid in prioritisation and resource allocation for seismic risk management. In this paper, a seismic risk index assessment tool is developed using Bayesian belief network (BBN) that considers geological, engineering, economic, social, political and cultural factors. Previously proposed hierarchical structure is modified and modelled using a BBN. The subjective probabilities of the BBN are derived using expert knowledge. Furthermore, to illustrate versatility of the proposed model, a case study is undertaken for 11 Canadian cities.  相似文献   

Stochastic model for settlement: footings on cohesionless soil     

《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2013,7(4):269-283

In this paper, given an estimate of the bearing capacity of the soil, by treating settlement at a given load as a random variable and the evolution of settlement of footing on cohesionless soil with the increasing load as a stochastic process, a tri-level homogeneous Markov chain (TLHMC) model is proposed for prediction of settlement. Comparison of the predicted mean and bounds on settlements, obtained using TLHMC, with the respective field values obtained from literature shows that the stochastic evolution can be modelled using TLHMC with a correlation coefficient of 0.90. A methodology for reliability-based design of footings is also presented and its use is demonstrated through a numerical example.  相似文献   

An improved impulsive control approach to robust lag synchronization between two different chaotic systems     

马铁东  浮洁  孙跃 《海洋学报(英文版)》2010,29(9)

In this paper, a novel robust impulsive lag synchronization scheme for different chaotic systems with parametric uncertainties is proposed. Based on the theory of impulsive functional differential equations and a new differential inequality, some new and less conservative sufficient conditions are established to guarantee that the error dynamics can converge to a predetermined region. Finally, some numerical simulations for the Lorenz system and Chen system are given to demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method. Compared with the existing results based on so-called dual-stage impulsive control, the derived results reduce the complexity of impulsive controller, moreover, a larger stable region can be obtained under the same parameters, which can be shown in the numerical simulations finally.  相似文献   

Hydrological model sensitivity to parameter and radar rainfall estimation uncertainty     

Faisal Hossain  Emmanouil N. Anagnostou  Tufa Dinku  Marco Borga 《水文研究》2004,18(17):3277-3291

Radar estimates of rainfall are being increasingly applied to flood forecasting applications. Errors are inherent both in the process of estimating rainfall from radar and in the modelling of the rainfall–runoff transformation. The study aims at building a framework for the assessment of uncertainty that is consistent with the limitations of the model and data available and that allows a direct quantitative comparison between model predictions obtained by using radar and raingauge rainfall inputs. The study uses radar data from a mountainous region in northern Italy where complex topography amplifies radar errors due to radar beam occlusion and variability of precipitation with height. These errors, together with other error sources, are adjusted by applying a radar rainfall estimation algorithm. Radar rainfall estimates, adjusted and not, are used as an input to TOPMODEL for flood simulation over the Posina catchment (116 km²). Hydrological model parameter uncertainty is explicitly accounted for by use of the GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation). Statistics are proposed to evaluate both the wideness of the uncertainty limits and the percentage of observations which fall within the uncertainty bounds. Results show the critical importance of proper adjustment of radar estimates and the use of radar estimates as close to ground as possible. Uncertainties affecting runoff predictions from adjusted radar data are close to those obtained by using a dense raingauge network, at least for the lowest radar observations available. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Multiple objective evaluation of a simple phosphorus transfer model     

Russell M. S. Smith  Howard S. Wheater 《水文研究》2004,18(9):1703-1720

A simple phosphorus (P) transfer model of the Welland catchment, UK, is evaluated against multiple objective functions using a Monte Carlo approach that combines calibration, identifiability, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The model is based on simple conceptual rainfall‐runoff and river routing components, combined with estimates of the daily non‐point source load derived from annual landuse‐based export coefficients, disaggregated as a function of the runoff. The model has limited data requirements, consistent with data availability, and is parsimoneous with respect to the number of parameters identified through inverse modelling. The best performing parameter sets capture the main aspects of the observed flow and total P (TP) concentrations and provide a suitable basis for a decision‐support tool. However, a trade‐off is evident between matching the observed flow peaks, flow recessions and TP concentrations simultaneously, highlighting some limitations of the model structure and/or calibration data. Model analysis indicates that daily non‐point source load cannot be described as a function of near‐surface runoff and land use alone, but that other influences, including seasonality, are important. However, further model development to improve performance is likely to introduce additional complexity (in terms of parameter numbers), and hence additional problems of parameter identifiability and output uncertainty, which in turn raises issues of the information content of the available data. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

SL3型雨量传感器示值误差测量不确定度评定方法   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

王敏  魏根宝  王毛翠  马锦国 《气象科技》2015,43(1):65-69

基于雨量传感器的检定方法,介绍了SL3型雨量传感器示值误差测量不确定度的评定方法。组建了测量模型,由测量不确定度传播定理,分析了雨量传感器示值误差测量不确定度的来源,根据不同的评定方法,对测量不确定度分量进行合理评定;结合实际工作,展示了SL3型雨量传感器示值误差测量不确定度的评定实例;分析了影响雨量传感器测量不确定度的主要因素。结果表明：雨量传感器示值误差的扩展不确定度U=01 mm（k=2）。其中,示值重复性引入的标准不确定度是影响测量不确定度的主要因素,其次是雨量传感器的分辨力和计数装置分辨力引入的标准不确定度,全自动雨量校准仪模拟雨强精度偏差引入的标准不确定度影响最小。  相似文献   

地面气温的概率预报试验     

李刚  吴春燕  肖若 《气象科技》2015,43(1):97-102

基于TIGGE(THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble)资料,对中国气象局(CMA)集合数值预报产品进行温度概率预报试验。分别应用降尺度技术、系统偏差订正及降尺度与系统偏差订正相结合的方法对2008年1月的气温进行试验。结果表明,通过Brier评分和ROC分析的检验,在24～240 h预报中,都得到了明显改进,在进行降尺度和系统偏差订正相结合的方法下,预报技巧的改进更加明显,优于单个方法独自使用的效果。RPS评分检验则表明:在168 h内,两种改进方案相结合的概率预报效果明显优于单一改进方法的使用;168 h后,预报效果逐渐下降不如系统偏差订正的效果,但优于降尺度技术的改进。总体而言,3种方法对地面气温的概率预报都有正的技巧预报,对预报时效较短(7天前)温度概率预报技巧高于预报时效较长的(7天后)。  相似文献   

气候变化影响与风险评估方法的研究进展          下载免费PDF全文

彭鹏  张韧  洪梅  王锋  龙强 《大气科学学报》2015,38(2):155-164

气候变化影响是指气候变化背景下社会经济或资源环境的响应。气候变化风险是指由于气候变化所引起的社会经济或资源环境的可能损失。气候变化风险评估是对气候变化影响的定性和对风险的量化。针对气候变化风险评估方法的原理和技术体系,本文从风险指数、风险概率和脆弱性评估三个方面,对研究现状、热点问题和通常方法进行了评述,并对当前研究中存在的问题和未来需求进行了归纳和展望。  相似文献