基于粗集的知识发现与地理模拟——以深圳市土地利用变化为例   总被引：18，自引：0，他引：18  

杨青生  黎夏 《地理学报》2006,61(8):882-894

为了更有效地模拟地理现象的复杂演变过程,提出了用粗集理论来确定元胞自动机 (CA)不确定性转换规则的新方法。CA可以通过局部规则来有效地模拟许多地理现象的演变过程。但目前缺乏很好定义CA转换规则的方法。往往采用启发式的方法来定义CA的转换规则,这些转换规则是静态的,而且其参数值多是确定的。在反映诸如城市扩张、疾病扩散等不确定性复杂现象时,具有一定的局限性。利用粗集从GIS和遥感数据中发现知识,自动寻找CA的不确定性转换规则,基于粗集的CA在缩短建模时间的同时,能提取非确定性的转换规则,更好地反映复杂系统的特点。采用所提出的方法模拟了深圳市的城市发展过程,取得了比传统MCE方法更好的模拟效果。  相似文献   

用斜率和曲率湿周法推求河道最小生态需水量的比较   总被引：17，自引：1，他引：16  

刘苏峡  莫兴国  夏军  刘昌明  林忠辉  门宝辉  吉利娜 《地理学报》2006,61(3):273-281

从湿周-流量曲线临界点的两种不同确定准则入手,分析湿周法推求河道内最小生态需水量 (minimum ecological instream flow requirements, 简称MEIFR) 的不确定性。假设河道呈三角形断面和均匀流,得到湿周法的解析解表达式。表达式显示斜率法 (曲线上斜率为1) 和曲率法 (曲线上曲率最大) 二者所得的MEIFR结果迥异。当斜率法取斜率为0.39时,其相应的流量与曲率法结果一致。MEIFR对斜率临界值非常敏感,斜率法中的斜率临界值难以确定,相比而言,曲率法更可靠。这用近似具有三角形断面的南水北调西线一期工程调水区流域的实际数据得到证实。根据我们在该区实地观测和收集的6条河35个河道断面的水深和水宽资料,用解析解估算出各断面的MEIFR。曲率法所估算的MEIFR结果为多年平均流量的2.5%~23.7%,大部分数据落在Tennant法的10%~30%的范围。斜率法为11%~105.7%,普遍偏大,超过这个范围。虽然采用较小的斜率临界点可使斜率法的估算结果变小,然而到底斜率临界点应取何值存在较大的不确定性。这进一步说明,在无法获得一个确定的斜率临界值的情况下,湿周法估算MEIFR宜采用曲率法确定临界点。本文的结果基于理想情况,更普遍的结论有待于对更多种河道断面的探讨。  相似文献   

A preliminary assessment of the spatial sources of contemporary suspended sediment in the Ohio River basin,United States,using water quality data from the NASQAN programme in a source tracing procedure     

Y. S. Zhang  A. L. Collins  A. J. Horowitz 《水文研究》2012,26(3):326-334

Reliable information on catchment scale suspended sediment sources is required to inform the design of management strategies for helping abate the numerous environmental issues associated with enhanced sediment mobilization and off‐site loadings. Since sediment fingerprinting techniques avoid many of the logistical constraints associated with using more traditional indirect measurement methods at catchment scale, such approaches have been increasingly reported in the international literature and typically use data sets collected specifically for sediment source apportionment purposes. There remains scope for investigating the potential for using geochemical data sets assembled by routine monitoring programmes to fingerprint sediment provenance. In the United States, routine water quality samples are collected as part of the US Geological Survey's revised National Stream Quality Accounting Network programme. Accordingly, the geochemistry data generated from these samples over a 10‐year period (1996–2006) were used as the basis for a fingerprinting exercise to assess the key tributary sub‐catchment spatial sources of contemporary suspended sediment transported by the Ohio River. Uncertainty associated with the spatial source estimates was quantified using a Monte Carlo approach in conjunction with mass balance modelling. Relative frequency weighted means were used as an alternative way of summarizing the spatial source contributions, thereby avoiding the need to use confidence limits. The results should be interpreted in the context of the routine, but infrequent nature, of the suspended sediment samples used to assemble geochemistry as a basis for the sourcing exercise. Nonetheless, the study demonstrates how routine monitoring samples can be used to provide some preliminary information on sediment provenance in large drainage basins. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Evaluation of monthly precipitation forecasting skill of the National Multi‐model Ensemble in the summer season          下载免费PDF全文

Hui Wang 《水文研究》2014,28(15):4472-4486

As a test bed, the National Multi‐model Ensemble (NMME) comprises seven climate models from different sources, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society. It provides 89 ensemble members of precipitation forecasts at different lead times. Precipitation forecasting from climate models has been applied to provide streamflow forecasts, and its utility in water resource system operation has been demonstrated in the literature. In this study, 1‐month‐ahead precipitation forecasts from NMME are evaluated for 945 grid points of 1°‐by‐1° resolution over the continental USA using mean square error and rank probability score. The temporal and spatial variabilities of the forecasting skill over different months of the summer season are discussed. The relation between forecasting uncertainty and observed precipitation is investigated. Such analyses have implications for monthly operational forecasts and water resource management at the watershed scale. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Uncertainty in streamflow rating curves: methods,controls and consequences          下载免费PDF全文

Kerrie M. Tomkins 《水文研究》2014,28(3):464-481

Discharge time series' are one of the core data sets used in hydrological investigations. Errors in the data mainly occur through uncertainty in gauging (measurement uncertainty) and uncertainty in determination of the stage–discharge relationship (rating curve uncertainty). Thirty‐six flow gauges from the Namoi River catchment, Australia, were examined to explore how rating curve uncertainty affects gauge reliability and uncertainty of observed flow records. The analysis focused on the deviations in gaugings from the rating curves because standard (statistical) uncertainty methods could not be applied. Deviations of greater/lesser than 10% were considered significant to allow for a measurement uncertainty threshold of 10%, determined from quality coding of gaugings and operational procedures. The deviations in gaugings were compared against various factors to examine trends and identify major controls, including stage height, date, month, rating table, gauging frequency and quality, catchment area and type of control. The analysis gave important insights into data quality and the reliability of each gauge, which had previously not been recognized. These included identification of more/less reliable periods of record, which varied widely between gauges, and identification of more/less reliable parts of the hydrograph. Most gauges showed significant deviations at low stages, affecting the determination of low flows. This was independent of the type of gauge control, with many gauges experiencing problems in the stability of the rating curve, likely as a result of sediment flux. The deviations in gaugings also have widespread application in modelling, for example, informing suitable calibration periods and defining error distributions. This paper demonstrates the value and importance of undertaking qualitative analyses of observed records. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Diagnostic evaluation of multiple hypotheses of hydrological behaviour in a limits‐of‐acceptability framework for 24 UK catchments          下载免费PDF全文

G. Coxon  J. Freer  T. Wagener  N. A. Odoni  M. Clark 《水文研究》2014,28(25):6135-6150

Testing competing conceptual model hypotheses in hydrology is complicated by uncertainties from a wide range of sources, which result in multiple simulations that explain catchment behaviour. In this study, the limits of acceptability uncertainty analysis approach used to discriminate between 78 competing hypotheses in the Framework for Understanding Structural Errors for 24 catchments in the UK. During model evaluation, we test the model's ability to represent observed catchment dynamics and processes by defining key hydrologic signatures and time step‐based metrics from the observed discharge time series. We explicitly account for uncertainty in the evaluation data by constructing uncertainty bounds from errors in the stage‐discharge rating curve relationship. Our study revealed large differences in model performance both between catchments and depending on the type of diagnostic used to constrain the simulations. Model performance varied with catchment characteristics and was best in wet catchments with a simple rainfall‐runoff relationship. The analysis showed that the value of different diagnostics in constraining catchment response and discriminating between competing conceptual hypotheses varies according to catchment characteristics. The information content held within water balance signatures was found to better capture catchment dynamics in chalk catchments, where catchment behaviour is predominantly controlled by seasonal and annual changes in rainfall, whereas the information content in the flow‐duration curve and time‐step performance metrics was able to better capture the dynamics of rainfall‐driven catchments. We also investigate the effect of model structure on model performance and demonstrate its (in)significance in reproducing catchment dynamics for different catchments. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Estimating stream solute loads from fixed frequency sampling regimes: the importance of considering multiple solutes and seasonal fluxes in the design of long‐term stream monitoring networks          下载免费PDF全文

Jason G. Kerr  M. Catherine Eimers  Huaxia Yao 《水文研究》2016,30(10):1521-1535

Reduced sampling frequency is known to increase the error associated with estimates of stream solute load. However, the extent to which the magnitude of error differs among commonly measured solutes and across seasons is unclear. In this study, a high sampling frequency data set from two forested streams (one upland‐draining and one wetland‐draining stream) in south‐central Ontario was systematically sub‐sampled to simulate weekly, fortnightly and monthly fixed frequency sampling regimes for 12 stream solutes. We found that solutes which had a higher degree of temporal variation in concentration (i.e. higher %RSD) had poorer precision (C_v) in estimates of annual load relative to solutes with a lower %RSD. In addition, the magnitude and direction of bias varied considerably among solutes and were related to differences in spring concentration‐discharge relationships (m_{[spring Q vs C]}) among the 12 solutes. Solutes which decreased in concentration with increases in spring flow (i.e. m_{[spring Q vs C]} <0) exhibited positive bias in annual load while solutes which increased in concentration with increases in spring flow (i.e. m_{[spring Q vs C]} >0) were negatively biased. In terms of differences between seasonal and annual load errors, precision was generally lower for estimates of seasonal load relative to annual load while bias varied in both magnitude and direction among seasons. When the root mean square error (RMSE) of load estimates was compared to a threshold of acceptable error (<15%), the proportion of solutes attaining acceptable levels of uncertainty ranged from 11/12 for annual load estimates at a weekly sampling frequency to only 4/12 at a monthly frequency when both annual and seasonal loads were considered. Our results demonstrate that commonly measured solutes do not behave uniformly in response to changes in sampling frequency and that estimates of seasonal loads are often less accurate than estimates of annual load. These findings provide important insights into the design of stream monitoring programs and the evaluation of existing long‐term data sets. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Catchment‐scale sensitivity and uncertainty in water quality modelling          下载免费PDF全文

Barry Hankin  Sally Bielby  Linda Pope  John Douglass 《水文研究》2016,30(22):4004-4018

In this paper, we assess the performance of the catchment model SIMulated CATchment model (SIMCAT), to predict nitrate and soluble reactive phosphorus concentrations against four monitoring regimes with different spatial and temporal sampling frequencies. The Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) uncertainty framework is used, along with a general sensitivity analysis to understand relative parameter sensitivity. Improvements to model calibration are explored by introducing more detailed process representation using the Integrated Catchments model (INCA) water quality model, driven by the European hydrological predictions for the environment model. The results show how targeted sampling of headwater watercourses upstream of point discharges is essential for calibrating diffuse loads and can exert a strong influence on the whole‐catchment model performance. Further downstream, if the point discharges and loads are accurately represented, then the improvement in the catchment‐scale model performance is relatively small as more calibration points are added or frequency is increased. The higher‐order, dynamic model integrated catchments model of phosphorus dynamics, which incorporates sediment and biotic interaction, resulted in improved whole‐catchment performance over SIMCAT, although there are still large epistemic uncertainties from land‐phase export coefficients and runoff. However, the very large sampling errors in routine monitoring make it difficult to invest confidence in the modelling, especially because we know phosphorous transport to be very episodic and driven by high flow conditions for which there are few samples. The environmental modelling community seems to have been stuck in this position for some time, and whilst it is useful to use an uncertainty framework to highlight these issues, it has not widely been adopted, perhaps because there is no clear mechanism to allow uncertainties to influence investment decisions. This raises the question as to whether it might better place a cost on uncertainty and use this to drive more data collection or improved models, before making investment decisions concerning, for example, mitigation strategies. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Efficient solution algorithms for multiaxial probabilistic elasto‐plastic constitutive simulations of soils          下载免费PDF全文

Arezoo Sadrinezhad  Kallol Sett  S. I. Hariharan 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2017,41(18):1807-1827

A Fokker‐Planck‐Kolmogorov (FPK) equation approach has recently been developed to probabilistically solve any elastic‐plastic constitutive equation with uncertain material parameters by transforming the nonlinear, stochastic constitutive rate equation into a linear, deterministic partial differential equation (PDE) and thereby simplifying the numerical solution process. For an uniaxial problem, conventional numerical techniques, such as the finite difference or finite element methods, may be used to solve the resulting univariate FPK PDE. However, for a multiaxial problem, an efficient algorithm is necessary for tractability of the numerical solution of the multivariate FPK PDE. In this paper, computationally efficient algorithms, based on a Fourier spectral approach, are presented for solving FPK PDEs in (stress) space and (pseudo) time, having space‐independent but time‐dependent coefficients and both space‐ and time‐dependent coefficients, that commonly arise in probabilistic elasto‐plasticity. The algorithms are illustrated by probabilistically simulating 2 common laboratory constitutive experiments in geotechnical engineering, namely, the unconfined compression test and the unconsolidated undrained triaxial compression test.  相似文献   

Evaporation in Mediterranean conditions: Estimations based on isotopic approaches at the watershed scale     

Alexandra Mattei  Frédéric Huneau  Emilie Garel  Sébastien Santoni  Yuliya Vystavna 《水文研究》2021,35(5):e14085

In Mediterranean regions, the marked climatic seasonality and uneven precipitation distribution complicate the application of isotope mass balances to obtain meaningful basin-wide annual average evaporation rates. In the present study, a mass balance approach carried out on the Tavignanu River watershed in Corsica (France), showed unrealistic evaporation rate estimates: 10% for 2017–2018 and 1% for 2018–2019. This suggests that not only does evaporation alter the seasonal isotopic composition in the river, but that there is complex variability of the dominant water reservoirs contributing to the streamflow. Therefore, we propose a modified mass balance approach, including monthly quantifications of different water sources contributing to the river discharge. This allows the discrimination of isotopic variation occurring by evaporation from that originating by mixing processes. By applying this modified approach, we estimated evaporation rates on the Tavignanu River watershed that were in good agreement with results obtained by hydrological modelling: 40% for 2017–2018 and 46% for 2018–2019, respectively. An uncertainty analysis showed that evaporation rates obtained with the modified isotopic approach are close to those obtained with the non-modified approach. Therefore, we recommend using this modified isotope mass balance approach to estimate evaporation rates in such regions as the Mediterranean with high seasonality in hydrological processes.  相似文献