Quantifying the relative impact of hydrological and hydraulic modelling parameterizations on uncertainty of inundation maps     

A. Annis  F. Nardi  E. Volpi  A. Fiori 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(4):507-523

ABSTRACT

Flood risk management strongly relies on inundation models for river basin zoning in flood-prone and risk-free areas. Floodplain zoning is significantly affected by the diverse and concurrent uncertainties that characterize the modelling chain used for producing inundation maps. In order to quantify the relative impact of the uncertainties linked to a lumped hydrological (rainfall–runoff) model and a FLO-2D hydraulic model, a Monte Carlo procedure is proposed in this work. The hydrological uncertainty is associated with the design rainfall estimation method, while the hydraulic model uncertainty is associated with roughness parameterization. This uncertainty analysis is tested on the case study of the Marta coastal catchment in Italy, by comparing the different frequency, extent and depth of inundation simulations associated with varying rainfall forcing and/or hydraulic model roughness realizations. The results suggest a significant predominance of the hydrological uncertainty with respect to the hydraulic one on the overall uncertainty associated with the simulated inundation maps.  相似文献   

Application of Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) at different temporal scales to reduce the uncertainty level in modelled river flows     

Ragab Ragab  Alexandra Kaelin  Muhammad Afzal  Ioanna Panagea 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(11):1856-1871

ABSTRACT

In this study, the distributed catchment-scale model, DiCaSM, was applied on five catchments across the UK. Given its importance, river flow was selected to study the uncertainty in streamflow prediction using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology at different timescales (daily, monthly, seasonal and annual). The uncertainty analysis showed that the observed river flows were within the predicted bounds/envelope of 5% and 95% percentiles. These predicted river flow bounds contained most of the observed river flows, as expressed by the high containment ratio, CR. In addition to CR, other uncertainty indices – bandwidth B, relative bandwidth RB, degrees of asymmetry S and T, deviation amplitude D, relative deviation amplitude RD and the R factor – also indicated that the predicted river flows have acceptable uncertainty levels. The results show lower uncertainty in predicted river flows when increasing the timescale from daily to monthly to seasonal, with the lowest uncertainty associated with annual flows.  相似文献   

An IEEE value loop of human-technology collaboration in geospatial information science     

Liqiu Meng 《地球空间信息科学学报》2020,23(1):61-67

ABSTRACT

Geosensing and social sensing as two digitalization mainstreams in big data era are increasingly converging toward an integrated system for the creation of semantically enriched digital Earth. Along with the rapid developments of AI technologies, this convergence has inevitably brought about a number of transformations. On the one hand, value-adding chains from raw data to products and services are becoming value-adding loops composed of four successive stages – Informing, Enabling, Engaging and Empowering (IEEE). Each stage is a dynamic loop for itself. On the other hand, the “human versus technology” relationship is upgraded toward a game-changing “human and technology” collaboration. The information loop is essentially shaped by the omnipresent reciprocity between humans and technologies as equal partners, co-learners and co-creators of new values.

The paper gives an analytical review on the mutually changing roles and responsibilities of humans and technologies in the individual stages of the IEEE loop, with the aim to promote a holistic understanding of the state of the art of geospatial information science. Meanwhile, the author elicits a number of challenges facing the interwoven human-technology collaboration. The transformation to a growth mind-set may take time to realize and consolidate. Research works on large-scale semantic data integration are just in the beginning. User experiences of geovisual analytic approaches are far from being systematically studied. Finally, the ethical concerns for the handling of semantically enriched digital Earth cover not only the sensitive issues related to privacy violation, copyright infringement, abuse, etc. but also the questions of how to make technologies as controllable and understandable as possible for humans and how to keep the technological ethos within its constructive sphere of societal influence.  相似文献   

地震速报参数不确定性的应急灾害损失快速评估模型   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

王晓青  邵辉成  丁香 《地震工程与工程振动》2003,23(6):198-201

本文针对目前地震应急灾害损失快速评估中存在的问题,建立了考虑地震速报参数不确定性的灾害损失快速评估模型。并利用1990年来全国的81组速报震中与宏观震中数据。得到速报震中与宏观震中偏差的概率分布经验参数。  相似文献   

中国中奥陶世岩相古地理   总被引：18，自引：10，他引：8       下载免费PDF全文

冯增昭  彭勇民  金振奎  鲍志东 《古地理学报》2003,5(3):263-278

本文是中国早、中、晚寒武世和早奥陶世岩相古地理诸文的继续。在笔者等的华北地区、华南地区和西北地区寒武纪和奥陶纪定量岩相古地理研究及编图成果的基础上,结合其他地区（主要是蒙兴地区、昆仑秦岭地区、西藏地区、海南岛地区和台湾地区）的地质资料,编制出了中国中奥陶世岩相古地理图,并撰写出本文。华北地区、华南地区和西北地区的研究程度较高,其岩相古地理图和文字论述都是定量的。其他地区的研究程度较低,其岩相古地理图和相应的文字论述则是定性的和概略性的。中国中奥陶世岩相古地理的基本格局仍和早奥陶世的一样为“两槽和三台相间分布”。两槽即天山北山蒙辽吉槽地和昆仑秦岭槽地,三台即准噶尔蒙兴台地、塔里木柴达木华北台地和西藏华南台地。但是这些古地理单元及其次级古地理单元的特征却与早奥陶世的有所不同或大不相同。  相似文献   

我国古地理学的形成、发展、问题和共识   总被引：23，自引：17，他引：6       下载免费PDF全文

冯增昭 《古地理学报》2003,5(2):129-141

古地理是研究地质历史时期和人类历史时期的自然地理特征的科学,有重要的地学理论意义和生产实践意义,还与人类赖以生存的古今地理环境密切相关。我国古地理学来源于地层学、地史学、大地构造学、古生物学、沉积岩石学、自然地理学、第四纪地质学、考古学、人类历史地理学等,因此就相应地产生和形成了地层古地理学(或地史古地理学)、构造古地理学、生物古地理学、岩相古地理学(或沉积古地理学)、自然地理古地理学、第四纪古地理学、人类历史古地理学等分支学科。有许多类型的古地理图,如构造古地理图、生物古地理图、岩相古地理图、示意的或定性的古地理图、定量的古地理图、不同比例尺的古地理图、当今界限的古地理图、非当今界限的古地理图等。古地理图是古地理研究的集中表现,是古地理学的生长点。我国的古地理学有4个主要的发展趋势,即从单一到综合,从定性到定量,从手工作图到计算机作图,从理论到应用。《古地理学报》的创刊和开始进入我国科技期刊的先进行列是我国古地理学发展历史中的一件大事。2002年12月香山科学会议第197次学术讨论会围绕“多信息的古地理重建”这个主题,通过充分的讨论和争鸣,对我国古地理学的发展前景达到了共识,即根据多学科的、多层圈的、多时代的、第一手为主的和定量为主的信息资料,编制从长城纪到第四纪以及人类历史时期的、各种比例尺兼有的、既有地学理论意义又能为生产实践和人类生存环境的维护和改善服务的、综合各古地理学分支学科之长的古地理图,是时候了。这是一个巨大的工程。让我们共同努力,为促使这一有重大历史意义和现实意义的宏伟目标的早日实现而奋斗。  相似文献   

GIS中线元的误差熵带研究   总被引：6，自引：3，他引：3  

李大军  龚健雅  谢刚生  杜道生 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2002,27(5):462-466

基于现有的线元位置不确定性模型大多与置信水平的选取有关,而置信水平的选取带有一定程度的主观性,因而不能惟一确定,引入信息熵理论,提出了线元的误差熵带模型,并将它与“E－带”进行了比较,计算了落入其内的概率。该模型根据联合熵惟一确定,与置信水平的选取无关。  相似文献   

Integrated surface–groundwater flow modeling: A free-surface overland flow boundary condition in a parallel groundwater flow model     

Stefan J. Kollet  Reed M. Maxwell 《Advances in water resources》2006

Interactions between surface and groundwater are a key component of the hydrologic budget on the watershed scale. Models that honor these interactions are commonly based on the conductance concept that presumes a distinct interface at the land surface, separating the surface from the subsurface domain. These types of models link the subsurface and surface domains via an exchange flux that depends upon the magnitude and direction of the hydraulic gradient across the interface and a proportionality constant (a measure of the hydraulic connectivity). Because experimental evidence of such a distinct interface is often lacking in field systems, there is a need for a more general coupled modeling approach.  相似文献   

氢醌滴定法测定金矿石中金的不确定度评定   总被引：5，自引：4，他引：5  

陈爱平陈志慧  王苏明王烨 《岩矿测试》2006,25(4):360-364

以氢醌滴定法测定金矿石中贵金属金的实例进行不确定度评定。测量结果的不确定度由配制金标准母液、金标准工作液、氢醌滴定液浓度、称样质量、滴定样品所用氢醌溶液体积等所引入的不确定度分量组成。在对各个不确定度分量进行量化的基础上，通过合成得到测量结果的标准不确定度，再乘以95％置信概率下的扩展因子2，得到测量结果的扩展不确定度。  相似文献   

地理信息系统数据的不确定性问题   总被引：4，自引：6，他引：4  

邬伦  承继成  史文中 《测绘科学》2006,31(5):13-17

在总结当前GIS数据不确定性问题的研究进展和动态的基础上,论述GIS数据不确定性的框架体系,并分析探讨GIS数据不确定性的核心理论和主要研究内容,特别是位置不确定性、属性不确定性、时域不确定性、不确定性传播和管理等问题,最后对GIS数据不确定性的数学研究方法进行分析、归纳和阐述。  相似文献