A nonstationary extreme value distribution for analysing the cessation of karst spring discharge          下载免费PDF全文

Yan Liu  Yonghong Hao  Yonghui Fan  Tongke Wang  Xueli Huo  Youcun Liu  Tian‐Chyi J. Yeh 《水文研究》2014,28(20):5251-5258

The effects of climate change and population growth in recent decades are leading us to consider their combined and potentially extreme consequences, particularly regarding hydrological processes, which can be modeled using a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Most of the GEV models were based on a stationary assumption for hydrological processes, in contrast to the nonstationary reality due to climate change and human activities. In this paper, we present the nonstationary generalized extreme value (NSGEV) distribution and use it to investigate the risk of Niangziguan Springs discharge decreasing to zero. Rather than assuming the location, scale, and shape parameters to be constant as one might do for a stationary GEV distribution analysis, the NSGEV approach can reflect the dynamic processes by defining the GEV parameters as functions of time. Because most of the GEV model is designed to evaluate maxima (e.g. flooding, represented by positive numbers), and spring discharge cessation is a ?minima’, we deduced an NSGEV model for minima by applying opposite numbers, i.e. negative instead of positive numbers. The results of the model application to Niangziguan Springs showed that the probability of zero discharge at Niangziguan Springs will be 1/80 in 2025, and 1/10 in 2030. After 2025, the rate of decrease in spring discharge will accelerate, and the probability that Niangziguan Springs will cease flowing will dramatically increase. The NSGEV model is a robust method for analysing karst spring discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Stable isotopes of precipitation and spring waters reveal an altitude effect in the Anti‐Lebanon Mountains,Syria          下载免费PDF全文

Paul Koeniger  Mathias Toll  Thomas Himmelsbach 《水文研究》2016,30(16):2851-2860

  相似文献   

A novel approach for estimating karst groundwater recharge in mountainous regions and its application in Switzerland          下载免费PDF全文

Arnauld Malard  Michael Sinreich  Pierre‐Yves Jeannin 《水文研究》2016,30(13):2153-2166

A pragmatic and simple approach for estimating the groundwater recharge of karst aquifers in mountainous regions by extrapolation of the hydrological regimes of gauged and well‐documented systems is presented. Specific discharge rates are derived using annual precipitation and spring measurements by taking into account catchment size and elevation, which are assumed to be the dominant factors. Reference sites with high data reliability are used for calibration and regional extrapolation. This is performed with normalized values employing spatial precipitation deviations and correlation with the elevation of the catchment areas. A tiered step procedure provides minimum and maximum normalized gradients for the relationship between recharge quantity and elevation for karst regions. The normalized recharge can therefore be obtained and extrapolated for any location using the spatial precipitation variability to provide an estimate of annual groundwater recharge. The approach was applied to Switzerland (approximately 7500 km² of karst terrain situated between 200 and over 4000 m a.s.l.) using annual precipitation data from meteorological stations for the years 2000 to 2011. Results show that the average recharge rates of different Swiss karst domains range from 20 to 46 L/km²s, which corresponds to an infiltration ratio between 0.6 and 0.9 of total precipitation. Despite uncertainties inherent in the approach, these results provide a benchmark for renewable karst groundwater resources in Switzerland of about 8.4 km³/year. The approach can be applied to any other mountainous karst region, that is, where a clear relationship between elevation, precipitation and recharge can be assumed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Groundwater mixing between different aquifer types in a complex structural setting discerned by elemental and stable isotope geochemistry          下载免费PDF全文

Dorina Murgulet  Marlon Cook  Valeriu Murgulet 《水文研究》2016,30(3):410-423

Karst aquifers are well known for their intricate stratigraphy and geologic structures, which make groundwater characterization challenging because flowpaths and recharge sources are complex and difficult to evaluate. Geochemical data, collected from ten closely spaced production wells constructed in two karst aquifers (Bangor Limestone (Mb) and Tuscumbia Limestone/Fort Payne Chert (Mftp)) in Trussville, north‐central Alabama, illustrate two distinctive groundwater end‐members: (1) higher major ion, dissolved inorganic carbon, conductivity, alkalinity concentrations, heavier δ¹³C ratios (max: −10.2 ± 0.2‰ Vienna Pee Dee Belemnite (PDB)) and lower residence times (mean: 19.5 ± 2 years, n = 2) of groundwater in the Mb aquifer and (2) lower constituent concentrations, lighter δ¹³C ratios (min: −13.4 ± 0.2‰ PDB) and longer residence times of groundwater (mean: 23.6 ± 2 years, n = 4) in the Mftp aquifer. Summer and fall data and the binary mixing model show aquifer inter‐flow mixing along solution fractures and confirms the distinctive groundwater geochemistry of the two aquifers. Lowering of static water levels over the summer (drawdown from 2 to 5.2 m) leads to more reducing groundwater conditions (lower Eh values) and slightly enriched δ¹⁸O and δD ratios during the fall [δ¹⁸O: −4.8 ± 0.1 to −5.4 ± 0.1‰ Vienna Standard Mean Oceanic Water (VSMOW), n = 9; δD: −25.4 ± 1 to −27.4 ± 1‰ VSMOW, n = 9] when compared with summer season samples (δ¹⁸O: −5.1 ± 0.1 to −5.7 ± 0.1‰ VSMOW, n = 11; δD: −25.0 ± 1 to −30.6 ± 1‰ VSMOW, n = 11). GIS analyses confirm the localized origin of recharge to the investigated aquifers. The combination of GIS, field parameters and geochemistry analyses can be successfully used to identify recharge sources, evaluate groundwater flow and transport pathways and to improve understanding of how groundwater withdrawals impact the sustainability and susceptibility to contamination of karst aquifers. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Hydraulic modeling of flood pulses in the Middle Bussento Karst System (MBSKS), UNESCO Cilento Global Geopark,southern Italy          下载免费PDF全文

Vittorio Bovolin  Albina Cuomo  Domenico Guida 《水文研究》2017,31(3):639-653

Karst systems provide water for domestic and industrial uses and for generating hydropower, but they can also create fluvial hazards, such as upstream back‐flooding and downstream karst flash‐flood events. However, these hazards are difficult to foresee due to the complex recharge‐discharge processes as well as the lack of information on the inside of the system, which has often not been completely surveyed by speleologists or explored by boreholes. To overcome these difficulties, hydro‐chemical data from the monitoring system in the Middle Bussento Karst System (MBSKS), one of the first Experimental Karst Systems in southern Italy, were recorded and previously discussed. Based on shared background in flood karst hydraulic modeling, this paper describes the conceptual premises and rationale of a general‐purpose hydraulic model that is suitable both for the MBSKS and for other Mediterranean, multi‐recharge, mature, conduit‐dominated karst systems. To test the reliability of the model, simulations of time–space behavior and response are performed using natural and artificial flood pulses “as tracers”, considering a “pulse” as a significant variation in water quantity and/or quality. The results of the model explain the interactions between allogenic, autogenic, and anthropogenic recharges from differentiated sources and phreatic conduit systems. These results also clarify the overall response of karst springs at typical time scales of flood pulses. Table acronym name  相似文献   

浅析GIS的地下管线查询与管理系统     

孙毓晗  魏东岚  王鸿燕 《测绘与空间地理信息》2016,(9):127-129

城镇地下管线就像是城镇的脉络,对于城镇的运转非常重要,肩负着为城镇运送物质能量、输出废弃物的重要使命。随着城镇的扩建,敷设于地下的管线不断向周围扩张,其规模不断膨胀,因此,也变得越来越复杂。传统的管线管理方式不仅数据的查询效率低,导致因管线错挖而造成的爆管事故频发,而且不能及时准确地进行应急处理。所以在告别传统落后的地下管线管理方式的同时,我们应思考如何能够更好的管理大量的地下管线数据,从而提高了数据的查询与应急管理的效率,为城镇规划和发展提供更好的支撑作用。  相似文献   

桂林毛村不同植被类型土壤微生物数量与碳酸酐酶活性比较     

黄芬  黄艳梅  杨利超  白冰  曹建华 《地质论评》2016,62(1):94-102

以非岩溶区林地为对比,分析了桂林毛村岩溶区4种不同植被类型土壤微生物数量及碳酸酐酶(CA)活性的季度动态变化规律,发现以下主要结果:1随着植被的正向演替,岩溶区弃耕地、草地、灌丛及林地微生物数量及CA活性逐渐升高,微生物总数从64.07×10~4cfu/g上升到178.23×10~4cfu/g,CA活性从0.77 U/g上升到1.82 U/g,岩溶区林地大于非岩溶区林地。2在岩溶区不同植被类型,微生物组成均表现为细菌最多(平均值95.14%),放线菌次之(平均值2.79%),真菌数量最少(平均值1.75%)。而在非岩溶区表现为细菌最多(平均值90.95%),真菌次之(平均值5.32%),放线菌最少(平均值3.73%)。3微生物数量季节动态整体表现为春季至夏季逐渐上升,至秋季达到最高,冬季下降,微生物总数的增长依赖于细菌的倍数增长,真菌和放线菌影响较小。CA活性整体表现为夏季和冬季低于春季和秋季,秋季达到最大值。4 CA活性与细菌及微生物总数呈极显著的正相关,表明土壤CA主要来源于细菌的分泌。  相似文献   

基于GRNN模型的岩溶地区城市水生态足迹分析与预测   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

杨振华  苏维词  赵卫权  谢砫军  李艳丽 《中国岩溶》2016,35(1):36-42

为揭示岩溶地区城市生态足迹的驱动因子与机制,评估和预测水资源可持续利用程度,根据岩溶地区水文地质特征及其与水生态足迹的相关性,分析了贵阳市2002-2014年水生态足迹的变化特征,并利用GRNN模型对其进行了时间序列预测。结果表明,贵阳市水生态足迹由2002年的12.79万hm2上升至2014年的15.74万hm2,整体呈波动上升趋势,其中,水量生态足迹变化特征主要由工业用水量决定,水质生态足迹变化特征主要由氨氮排放量决定。水生态承载力波动变化明显,且小于水生态足迹需水量,导致水资源可持续利用系数介于0.31~0.63之间。对贵阳市2015-2019年水生态足迹进行GRNN预测,表明水生态足迹呈现先升后降得趋势,水生态承载力变幅在4.315~8.038万hm2之间,但水生态足迹与承载力的缺口大,水资源可持续利用系数偏低。因此,在水生态承载力有限的贵阳市,降低水生态足迹才是实现水资源可持续利用的关键。  相似文献   

软土地区地铁道床沉降特征及其诱发因素分析     

焦珣  吴建中  王寒梅  吴吉春  叶淑君 《世界地质》2016,35(1):276-282

以上海4条地铁线路道床长期沉降监测资料为基础,分析了地铁隧道的纵向沉降特征;结合该地区地质环境调查资料,深入分析地铁隧道沉降与下卧层地层结构、浅部地下水位变化以及区域地面沉降三个地质环境因素之间的相互作用关系。结果表明,地铁隧道下卧地层结构差异是地铁隧道沉降差异性的重要地质环境因素,深基坑降排水引起降水目的含水层地下水位下降,使得降水目的层以及相邻软黏性土层发生较大的压缩变形,导致以降水目的层上覆软黏性土层为承载体的地铁隧道也随之发生沉降,区域地面沉降也是地铁隧道沉降的重要影响因素。  相似文献   

长兴岛碳酸盐岩裂隙岩溶水特征分析     

陈冶  程微  宋波  宋建伟  程静  孙丽萍 《化工矿产地质》2016,(2):79-84

长兴岛碳酸盐岩区占整个岛的44%,受降雨、岩性、构造等条件的影响,岩溶较发育,地下水资源较丰富,且水质较好,适宜作为饮用水水源。在收集大量基础地质资料,并结合现场调查、钻探、抽水试验成果,分析了从上至下5层岩溶带的发育特征、赋水性规律及补、径、排条件。同时考虑供水水文地质条件,进行了天然资源和开采资源概算,及成井条件、水质的分析评价。  相似文献