Estimating the spatial pattern of human-caused forest fires using a generalized linear mixed model with spatial autocorrelation in South Korea     

Hanbin Kwak  Joachim Saborowski  Si-Young Lee  Myoung-Soo Won  Kyo-Sang Koo 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(9):1589-1602

Most forest fires in Korea are spatially concentrated in certain areas and are highly related to human activities. These site-specific characteristics of forest fires are analyzed by spatial regression analysis using the R-module generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), which can consider spatial autocorrelation. We examined the quantitative effect of topology, human accessibility, and forest cover without and with spatial autocorrelation. Under the assumption that slope, elevation, aspect, population density, distance from road, and forest cover are related to forest fire occurrence, the explanatory variables of each of these factors were prepared using a Geographic Information System-based process. First, we tried to test the influence of fixed effects on the occurrence of forest fires using a generalized linear model (GLM) with Poisson distribution. In addition, the overdispersion of the response data was also detected, and variogram analysis was performed using the standardized residuals of GLM. Second, GLMM was applied to consider the obvious residual autocorrelation structure. The fitted models were validated and compared using the multiple correlation and root mean square error (RMSE). Results showed that slope, elevation, aspect index, population density, and distance from road were significant factors capable of explaining the forest fire occurrence. Positive spatial autocorrelation was estimated up to a distance of 32 km. The kriging predictions based on GLMM were smoother than those of the GLM. Finally, a forest fire occurrence map was prepared using the results from both models. The fire risk decreases with increasing distance to areas with high population densities, and increasing elevation showed a suppressing effect on fire occurrence. Both variables are in accordance with the significance tests.  相似文献   

随机反演在陆丰13-1油田储层预测中的应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘丹  徐伟 《物探化探计算技术》2012,34(3):331-335,240,241

这里以陆丰13-1油田为例,研究发现井上波阻抗曲线并不能有效区分砂岩储层和泥岩非储层,故对孔隙度数据体进行了反演.首先对井上孔隙度曲线进行直方图统计分析,变差函数分析及孔隙度和波阻抗的相关性分析,然后用高斯模拟加模拟退火的随机反演方法对研究区进行了孔隙度体的反演.经反演发现,较其它反演方法孔隙度体反演剖面分辨率有了很大提高,对薄砂体也能很好地识别,且与井上吻合较好,能很好地刻画出砂体的横向变化情况,平面上砂体的展布也符合该区的沉积相分布.  相似文献   

随机地震反演关键参数优选和效果分析(英文)   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

黄哲远  甘利灯  戴晓峰  李凌高  王军 《应用地球物理》2012,9(1):49-56

随机地震反演技术是将地质统计理论和地震反演相结合的反演方法,它将地震资料、测井资料和地质统计学信息融合为地下模型的后验概率分布,利用马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛(MCMC)方法对该后验概率分布采样,通过综合分析多个采样结果来研究后验概率分布的性质,进而认识地下情况。本文首先介绍了随机地震反演的原理,然后对影响随机地震反演效果的四个关键参数,即地震资料信噪比、变差函数、后验概率分布的样本个数和井网密度进行分析并给出其优化原则。资料分析表明地震资料信噪比控制地震资料和地质统计规律对反演结果的约束程度,变差函数影响反演结果的平滑程度,后验概率分布的样本个数决定样本统计特征的可靠性,而参与反演的井网密度则影响反演的不确定性。最后通过对比试验工区随机地震反演和基于模型的确定性地震反演结果,指出随机地震反演可以给出更符合地下实际情况的模型。  相似文献   

地质统计学在东天山化探信息提取中的应用     

阴江宁  肖克炎  邹伟  王中  路璐 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2012,42(3):887-894

地球化学场和地球物理场都具有一定的空间结构性和空间自相关性,而揭示这种空间相关性的有力工具是变差函数。利用变差函数对东天山的1∶20万区域地球化学数据Cu和Au进行了结构分析。结果表明：两元素在东西方向有着较好的稳定性和连续性,南北方向有较大的变化性并具有一定的线性漂移,总体呈现带状异常,与东天山EW方向大断裂具有很好的一致性。利用泛克里格法对Cu、Au进行了异常信息的提取和评价,泛克里格法提取的剩余异常不仅能突出高异常区,也较清晰地反映了部分低缓异常带,为研究区域化探异常分布特征提供了丰富的信息。  相似文献   

基于多尺度最小二乘支持向量机优化的克里金插值方法     

车磊  王海起  费涛  闫滨  刘玉  桂丽  陈冉  翟文龙 《地球信息科学学报》2017,19(8):1001-1010

克里金插值方法根据待估位置点、已知样本数据点的位置关系和区域化变量的空间相关性,实现空间加权估计,满足估计的无偏性和最优性。传统方法理论模型形状固定且选择具有人为主观性,无法反映空间数据的变化趋势及其空间多尺度特征。本文为解决上述问题,提出了一种基于多尺度最小二乘支持向量机优化的克里金插值方法,此方法为拟合实验变异函数提供了一种新的思路。从实际样本数据的变化趋势出发,采用最小二乘支持向量机拟合实验变异函数,并利用不同尺度小波核反映不同尺度下的空间变化。最后,实验环节包括模拟和应用,模拟主要验证经多尺度最小二乘支持向量机优化后插值方法的科学有效性以及准确性,应用主要研究青岛市PM_2.5浓度时空分布特征,为城市生态科学防护及控制提供理论依据。结果表明,基于多尺度最小二乘支持向量机优化的克里金插值方法能够更好地刻画变异函数,反映不同尺度下的空间变化细节,从而在一定程度上提高插值的精度,是一种可选的克里金插值方法。  相似文献   

Spatial prediction of river channel topography by kriging   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Carl J. Legleiter  Phaedon C. Kyriakidis 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2008,33(6):841-867

Topographic information is fundamental to geomorphic inquiry, and spatial prediction of bed elevation from irregular survey data is an important component of many reach‐scale studies. Kriging is a geostatistical technique for obtaining these predictions along with measures of their reliability, and this paper outlines a specialized framework intended for application to river channels. Our modular approach includes an algorithm for transforming the coordinates of data and prediction locations to a channel‐centered coordinate system, several different methods of representing the trend component of topographic variation and search strategies that incorporate geomorphic information to determine which survey data are used to make a prediction at a specific location. For example, a relationship between curvature and the lateral position of maximum depth can be used to include cross‐sectional asymmetry in a two‐dimensional trend surface model, and topographic breaklines can be used to restrict which data are retained in a local neighborhood around each prediction location. Using survey data from a restored gravel‐bed river, we demonstrate how transformation to the channel‐centered coordinate system facilitates interpretation of the variogram, a statistical model of reach‐scale spatial structure used in kriging, and how the choice of a trend model affects the variogram of the residuals from that trend. Similarly, we show how decomposing kriging predictions into their trend and residual components can yield useful information on channel morphology. Cross‐validation analyses involving different data configurations and kriging variants indicate that kriging is quite robust and that survey density is the primary control on the accuracy of bed elevation predictions. The root mean‐square error of these predictions is directly proportional to the spacing between surveyed cross‐sections, even in a reconfigured channel with a relatively simple morphology; sophisticated methods of spatial prediction are no substitute for field data. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Spatial considerations when monitoring reef fishes     

D Parker  H Winker  ATF Bernard  MKS Smith  A Götz 《African Journal of Marine Science》2019,41(1):93-101

Spatial dependence can obscure relationships between response and explanatory variables because of structuring within the residuals reducing variance and biasing coefficient estimates. Here, we highlight the influence of the spatial component, in the presence of spatial dependence, on abundance trends. This is illustrated using abundance data for a Critically Endangered reef fish, dageraad Chrysoblephus cristiceps, which were obtained from a long-term monitoring programme in the Tsitsikamma National Park marine protected area, South Africa. Correlograms illustrate distinct spatial structuring in the abundance data, and spatial variables were determined as more important than temporal variables when ranked according to predictive power using a random forest analysis. A generalised additive model (GAM) that did not account for spatial dependencies was compared to a generalised additive mixed model (GAMM) that incorporated a spatial residual correlation structure. Results derived from the spatially explicit GAMM differed considerably from the GAM lacking a spatial component, with the latter deemed to produce over-precise and partially biased abundance trends. The study emphasises the importance of space in accurately modelling abundance estimates, particularly temporal trends, and provides an introduction to the minimal statistical requirements necessary to address the violations associated with spatial autocorrelation.  相似文献   

IDENTIFICATION OF PALEO-EARTHQUAKES OF LUOYUNSHAN PIEDMONT FAULT BY QUANTITATIVE MORPHOLOGY OF LIMESTONE FAULT SURFACES     

ZOU Jun-jie  HE Hong-lin  SHI Feng  WEI Zhan-yu  SU Peng  YAN Xiao-bing 《地震地质》2019,41(2):400-418

The quantitative analysis of morphologic characteristics of bedrock fault surface is a useful approach to study faulting history and identify paleo-earthquake. It is an effective complement to trenching technique, specially to identifying paleo-earthquakes in a bedrock area where the trenching technique cannot be applied. This paper focuses on the Luoyunshan piedmont fault, which is an active normal fault extending along the eastern boundary of the Shanxi Graben, China. There are a lot of fault scarps along the fault zone, which supply plentiful samples to be selected to our research, that is, to study faulting history and identify paleo-earthquakes in bedrock area by the quantitative analysis of morphologic characteristics of fault surfaces. In this paper, we calculate the 2D fractal dimension of two bedrock fault surfaces on the Luoyunshan piedmont fault in the Shanxi Graben, China using the isotropic empirical variance function, which is a popular method in fractal geometry. Results indicate that the fractal dimension varies systematically with height above the base of the fault surface exposures, indicating segmentation of the fault surface morphology. The 2D fractal dimension on a fault surface shows a ‘stair-like’ vertical segmentation, which is consistent with the weathering band and suggests that those fault surfaces are outcropped due to periodic faulting earthquakes. However, compared to the results of gneiss obtained by the former researchers, the characteristic fractal value of limestone shows an opposite evolution trend. 1)The paleo-earthquake study of the bedrock fault surface can be used as a supplementary method to study the activity history of faults in specific geomorphological regions. It can be used to fill the gaps in the exploration of the paleo-earthquake method in the bedrock area, and then broaden the study of active faults in space and scope. The quantitative analysis of bedrock fault surface morphology is an effective method to study faulting history and identify paleo-earthquake. The quantitative feature analysis method of the bedrock fault surface is a cost-effective method for the study of paleo-earthquakes in the bedrock fault surface. The number of weathered bands and band height can be identified by the segment number and segment height of the characteristic fractal dimension, and then the paleoearthquake events and the co-seismic displacement can be determined; 2)The exposure of the fault surface of the Luoyunshan bedrock is affected and controlled by both fault activity and erosion. A strong fault activity(ruptured earthquake)forms a segment of fault surface which is equivalent to the vertical co-seismic displacement of the earthquake. After the segment is cropped out, it suffers from the same effect of weathering and erosion, and thus this segment has approximately the same fractal dimension. Multiple severe fault activities(ruptured earthquake)form multiple fault surface topography. The long-term erosion under weak hydrodynamic conditions at the base of the fault cliff between two adjacent fault activities(intermittent period)will form a gradual slow-connect region where the fractal dimension gradually changes with the height of the fault surface. Based on the segmentation of quantitative morphology of the two fault surfaces on the Luoyunshan piedmont fault, we identified four earthquake events. Two sets of co-seismic displacement of about 3m and 1m on the fault are obtained; 3)The relationship between the fault surface morphology parameters and the time is described as follows:The fractal dimension of the limestone area decreases with the increase of the exposure time, which reflects the gradual smoothing characteristics after exposed. The phenomenon is opposite to the evolution of the geological features of gneiss faults acquired by the predecessors on the Huoshan piedmont fault; 4)Lithology plays an important role in morphology evolution of fault surface and the two opposite evolution trends of the characteristic fractal value on limestone and gneiss show that the weathering mechanism of limestone is different from that of the gneiss.  相似文献   

Cokriging for enhanced spatial interpolation of rainfall in two Australian catchments   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Sajal Kumar Adhikary  Nitin Muttil  Abdullah Gokhan Yilmaz 《水文研究》2017,31(12):2143-2161

Rainfall data in continuous space provide an essential input for most hydrological and water resources planning studies. Spatial distribution of rainfall is usually estimated using ground‐based point rainfall data from sparsely positioned rain‐gauge stations in a rain‐gauge network. Kriging has become a widely used interpolation method to estimate the spatial distribution of climate variables including rainfall. The objective of this study is to evaluate three geostatistical (ordinary kriging [OK], ordinary cokriging [OCK], kriging with an external drift [KED]), and two deterministic (inverse distance weighting, radial basis function) interpolation methods for enhanced spatial interpolation of monthly rainfall in the Middle Yarra River catchment and the Ovens River catchment in Victoria, Australia. Historical rainfall records from existing rain‐gauge stations of the catchments during 1980–2012 period are used for the analysis. A digital elevation model of each catchment is used as the supplementary information in addition to rainfall for the OCK and kriging with an external drift methods. The prediction performance of the adopted interpolation methods is assessed through cross‐validation. Results indicate that the geostatistical methods outperform the deterministic methods for spatial interpolation of rainfall. Results also indicate that among the geostatistical methods, the OCK method is found to be the best interpolator for estimating spatial rainfall distribution in both the catchments with the lowest prediction error between the observed and estimated monthly rainfall. Thus, this study demonstrates that the use of elevation as an auxiliary variable in addition to rainfall data in the geostatistical framework can significantly enhance the estimation of rainfall over a catchment.  相似文献   

井震联合建模技术在萨尔图油田B1DD区块的应用及其效果     

刘金平  杨懋新  邵英梅 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2020,50(2):579-588

为解决以往油藏描述工作单孔资料在深度和广度上存在明显局限性的问题,提出了一套井震联合地质建模的方法：首先以地震精细解释的层位数据和断层数据为约束,结合测井资料建立构造模型;然后采用地震反演体的概率面在平面上作为约束,纵向上在测井曲线上分类统计各微相的概率分布曲线,在变差函数分析的基础上,采用序贯指示模拟算法模拟出储层微相的空间展布,建立沉积相模型;最后采用相控技术和地质统计学理论,分析参数区域化变量的特征,建立储层属性模型。在大庆萨尔图油田的B1DD区块进行验证的结果表明,井震资料的联合应用揭示了大量的小断层,使断点组合率提高了15%,大于2 m的砂岩预测符合率达到90%以上,提高了井间断层和砂岩的预测精度,进而提高了地质模型、尤其是井间模型的精度。  相似文献