Evaluation of spring persistent rainfall over East Asia in CMIP3/CMIP5 AGCM simulations     

张洁  周天军  辛晓歌 《大气科学进展》2013,30(6):1587-1600

The progress made fi＇om Phase 3 to Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP3 to CMIP5） in simulating spring persistent rainfall （SPR） over East Asia was examined from the outputs of nine atmospheric general circulation models （AGCMs）. The majority of the models overestimated the precipitation over the SPR domain, with the mean latitude of the SPR belt shifting to the north. The overestimation was about 1mm d-1 in the CMIP3 ensemble, and the northward displacement was about 3°, while in the CMIP5 ensemble the overestimation was suppressed to 0.7 mm d-i and the northward shift decreased to 2.5°. The SPR features a northeast-southwest extended rain belt with a slope of 0.4°N/°E. The CMIP5 ensemble yielded a smaller slope （0.2°N/°E）, whereas the CMIP3 ensemble featured an unre- alistic zonally-distributed slope. The CMIP5 models also showed better skill in simulating the interannual variability of SPR. Previous studies have suggested that the zonal land-sea thermal contrast and sensible heat flux over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau are important for the existence of SPR. These two ther- mal factors were captured well in the CMIP5 ensemble, but underestimated in the CMIP3 ensemble. The variability of zonal land-sea thermal contrast is positively correlated with the rainfall amount over the main SPR center, but it was found that an overestimated thermal contrast between East Asia and South China Sea is a common problem in most of the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Simulation of the meridional thermal contrast is therefore important for the future improvement of current AGCMs.  相似文献   

Revealing the Effects of the El Ni(n)o-Southern Oscillation on Tropical Cyclone Intensity over the Western North Pacific from a Model Sensitivity Study     

ZHOU Yang  JIANG Jing  Youyu LU  HUANG Anning 《大气科学进展》2013,30(4)

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CMIP5部分模式气温和降水模拟结果在北半球及青藏高原的检验   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

李振朝  韦志刚  吕世华  高艳红  韩博  李锁锁  奥银焕  陈昊 《高原气象》2013,32(4)

利用北半球和青藏高原的观测资料,通过趋势分析、量值比较及小波分析等方法对已提交历史模拟结果的8个模式进行了比较.结果表明,各模式对北半球气温年变化模拟的较好,一般7、8月气温最高,1月气温最低,不存在相位差问题.各模式模拟的历史气温年际和年代际变化趋势比较一致,气温最大相差2.8℃以上;模拟的1850-2005年气温平均最高和最低值相差可达1.8℃左右;除1个模式外,其余模式都能较准确地模拟出至少有一次气温突变.对北半球降水的模拟,各模式都模拟出了降水的季节变化,但从年际变化趋势来看,4个模式模拟的降水为增大趋势,4个为减小趋势.对青藏高原的模拟,从变化趋势与观测气温的对比来看,8个模式中,除2个模式通过了0.05显著性水平检验外,其余均通过了0.01显著性水平检验;各模式都模拟出了青藏高原的降水中心,但对降水量值的模拟相差较大.  相似文献   

基于ERA5再分析数据的中国邻近海域极端波高特征分析     

杜文彦  张旭日  张丽丽  尤再进  石洪源 《海洋与湖沼》2022,53(4):1007-1014

极端波浪对沿海地区基础设施有着深远的影响,了解它们的变化规律是进行海岸带风险分析和灾害预防的基础。文章基于欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting,ECMWF)第五代再分析数据集(ECMWF reanalysis v5,ERA5),对中国邻近海域1979~2018年间极端波高展开时空特征分析,并统计了40 a厄尔尼诺系数,利用广义极值分布(generalized extreme value,GEV)函数探究了近40 a厄尔尼诺现象对我国海域极端波高的影响,结果显示:统计1979~2018年整个研究区域前2%极端波浪年均值在6~10 m间浮动,且整体趋势递增,在四季趋势变化中,春夏极端波高增长趋势较秋冬高,且波动明显,在年际极端波高变化趋势中有较大波动时大多伴随着厄尔尼诺或是拉尼娜现象的发生,结合厄尔尼诺现象对GEV分布中位置参数的影响分布图和极端波高年、季节际趋势变化分布图,厄尔尼诺现象影响大的地区极端波高大多呈现增长趋势,表明厄尔尼诺现象对极端波高有较高影响。  相似文献   

渤海湾盆地沙南凹陷曹妃甸14-5区沙河街组砂体成因分析     

祝彦贺  刘丽芳  吴克强  李宏义 《海洋地质译丛》2010,(4):7-14,38

西洼沙河街组沉积位于渤海湾盆地沙南凹陷,从Es3m到Es1,沙南凹陷经历四期裂陷幕,其间发育的不整合面T5使区域古地貌隆升,形成四期的三级层序变化旋回,并在西洼东—西向中央断裂带的控制下形成南、北物源和北部断裂坡折。双向物源和断裂坡折控制沙河街组沉积,形成多类型沉积,其中Es3m以半深湖—深湖、富泥质的湖底扇为特征,形成弱水动力沉积环境;Es3u以半深湖—深湖、富砂质的湖底扇和火山岩为特征,形成局部动荡的水动力沉积环境;Es12沉积较薄,形成独具特色的多样式、多类型沉积,包括半深湖—深湖、扇三角洲前缘、前缘斜坡扇、滑塌体、湖底扇及火山岩沉积,以及牵引流与重力流并存,以重力流为沉积主导。层段内的沉积序列及演化特征决定该区域形成南、北物源控制的4种成因砂体,南物源的晚期成砂机制,包括扇三角洲前缘砂、前缘斜坡扇砂,北物源的中晚期成砂机制,包括滑塌体砂和湖底扇砂。因此,西洼区域勘探以寻找岩性圈闭、构造—岩性圈闭为主,断裂与砂体的空间匹配关系决定了圈闭的有效性。  相似文献   

NONHYDROSTATIC NUMERICAL SIMULATION FOR THE“96.8”EXTRAORDINARY RAINSTORM AND THE DEVELOPING STRUCTURE OF MESOSCALE SYSTEM     

冯伍虎  程麟生  程明虎 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2002,(4)

During the period of 3—5 August 1996(for short “96.8”),an extraordinary rainstorm eventoccurred in Henan,Hebei and Shanxi Provinces in China,resulting in severe flood catastrophe.Synoptic analyses indicated that the stable gross col field and the interaction between a northwardmoving typhoon(down into low pressure)and its east lateral Pacific subtropical high were thelarge-and meso-scale circulation conditions of the “96.8” extraordinary rainstorm.The mesoscaletyphoon-low and its specific dynamical and thermodynamical structures were directly related to thisrainstorm event.The nonhydrostatic version of mesoscale numerical model MM5 was used toconduct investigation of numerical simulation for this case.The simulation with the full physicalprocesses of nonhydrostatic version MM5 was basically possessed of a capability to reproduce thegenesis,development and evolution of the large-scale and meso-α scale synoptic systems.Thesimulative results using a two-way interactive nesting procedure revealed that the typhoon-low waspossessed of an intensive coupled mechanism between the dynamical and thermodynamical fields,namely,the developing typhoon-low was possessed of a structure of the.cyclonic vorticity columnwith warm center and high humidity,the vorticity column on the lower levels was the moistconvective instability and negative moist potential vorticity structure:the intensive ascendingvertical motion and the intense divergence on upper levels and intensive convergence on the lowerlevels as well as the development of the convective cloud cluster were intercoupling:the intensesouthern wind jet companied by the typhoon-low was not only the interaccompanying andintercoupling condition of the development and maintenance of the typhoon-low and convectivecloud cluster,but also was the transportable belt of the moisture source and heat energy of the“96.8”extraordinary rainstorm.The analysis of simulative results of precipitation indicated thatthe distribution of the rainfall belt and rainfall rate was basically consistent with that of theobservation in spite of some rainfall centers less or larger than those of the observation for coarseor fine mesh domain,respectively.  相似文献   

Propagation and source of Pc5 frequency range pulsation at cusp latitude     

刘勇华  贺龙松  杨少峰  刘瑞源  BJ Fraser 《极地研究(英文版)》2002,13(1)

1　ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＴｈｅｐｏｌａｒｒｅｇｉｏｎｉｓａｎｉｍｐｏｒｔａｎｔａｒｅａｆｏｒｅｎｅｒｇｅｔｉｃｃｏｕｐｌｉｎｇｂｅｔｗｅｅｎｓｏｌａｒｗｉｎｄａｎｄｅａｒｔｈ’ｓｍａｇｎｅｔｏｓｐｈｅｒｅ .Ｔｈｅｃｕｓｐｉｓｔｈｅｄｉｒｅｃｔｐａｔｈｆｏｒｓｏｌａｒｗｉｎｄｐｅｎｅｔｒａｔｉｎｇｉｎｔｏｔｈｅｍａｇｎｅｔｏｓｐｈｅｒｅｏｒｅｖｅｎｉｎｔｏｔｈｅｉｏｎｏｓｐｈｅｒｅａｎｄｉｔａｌｓｏｉｓａｃｏｎｖｅｒｇｅｎｔｒｅｇｉｏｎｆｏｒａｌｏｔｏｆｍａｇｎｅｔｏｓｐｈｅｒｉｃｂｏｕｎｄａ…  相似文献   

High-velocity regions in planetary nebulae     

Krzysztof Gesicki  Albert A. Zijlstra 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,338(2):347-359

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矿物光电子能量在地球早期生命起源与进化中的作用          下载免费PDF全文

鲁安怀  李艳  黎晏彰  丁竑瑞  王长秋 《地质论评》2023,69(1):234-246

地球早期生命起源的第一步是合成简单的有机化合物,但合成有机物所需能量来源问题长期困扰着学术界。早期地球上丰富的硫化物半导体矿物可将太阳光子转化为光电子,提供持续的能量来源。也正是由于矿物光电子能量较高,在非生物途径合成小分子有机物方面具有优势。其中半导体矿物自然硫转化太阳能产生的光电子能量,是目前所发现的最高的矿物光电子能量,不仅能直接还原CO₂分子为甲酸物质,还可催化其他生命基础物质的合成。在全球陆地系统中暴露在阳光下的岩石/土壤表面普遍被一层铁锰氧化物“矿物膜”所覆盖,光照下含半导体矿物水钠锰矿的“矿物膜”产生原位、灵敏、长效的光电流,显示出优异的光电效应。生物光合作用中心Mn₄CaO₅在裂解水产氧过程中产生成分和结构类似水钠锰矿的结构中间体,地球早期“矿物膜”中水钠锰矿可能促进了锰簇Mn₄CaO₅与生物光合作用的起源与进化。早期地球半导体矿物为生命起源基本物质的合成提供直接能量来源,矿物光电子能量在地球早期生命起源与进化中起到了重要作用。  相似文献   

大港油田滩海区域ZH5断块厚砂体夹层研究     

李宁  牟晓慧  黄国梁  唐和军  蒋成成  金海锋 《地质与资源》2018,27(4):383-388

大港油田滩海区域ZH5断块发育单层厚砂体,目前开发效果差,急需开展夹层研究,寻找注水未波及区,挖掘剩余油.通过采用孔隙度-渗透率交会法与测井识别法有效识别,研究区夹层主要为泥质夹层和物性夹层.夹层纵向对应关系差,平面分布受沉积微相展布特征控制,主要发育于滩坝沉积的侧部.泥质夹层主要分布于断块的中南部,呈条带状分布,物性夹层呈片状不稳定分布.通过对ZH29-29井封堵水淹层,控水效果良好.  相似文献