小波功率谱Monte Carlo显著性检验的一个简易方案   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

王蕊  王盘兴  吴洪宝  李丽平  陈延聪  刘晴晴 《南京气象学院学报》2009,32(1):140-144

对一个气象量时间序列p={P（t）,t=^-1,n},通过相空间中的几何分析直观地阐明了Morlet小波功率谱W（t,k）的计算原理,给出了一个对W（t,k）作Monte Carlo显著性检验的方案。由于该方案中随机序列的产生与分析序列p的理论分布无关,实施简单易行。对6月100hPa南亚高压强度指数序列的小波功率谱显著性检验表明,该方案能充分揭示p中年际、年代际振荡随时间的变化,因而具有实际应用价值。  相似文献   

GPS time-series and its response to M _S=8.1 Kunlunshan earthquake     

Jing Shao-qun  Wu Yun  Qiao Xue-jun  Zhou Shuo-yu  Shi Shun-ying 《地震学报(英文版)》2005,18(4):419-426

In this paper, observation data in 25 GPS reference stations of China have been analyzed by calculating GPS position coordinate time-series with GIPSY. Result shows there is an obvious trend variation in such time-series. The trend variations of time series along the longitude and latitude coordinate reflect the motion of each position in the global-plate, in which the trend variation in the vertical direction reveals some large-scale construction information or reflects the local movement around the positions. The analysis also shows that such time-series have a variation cycle of nearly 1.02 a, but the reason still remains to be further studied. At the end of this paper, response of the time-series of M _S=8.1 Kunlunshan earthquake was analyzed, and the seismogenic process of M _S=8.1 Kunlunshan earthquake, according to the time proceeding and the feature of anomaly, was divided into 3 phases—changes in blocks with forces, strain accumulation, quick accumulation and slow release of energy. At the initial stage of seismogenic process of M _S=8.1 earthquake and at the imminent earthquake, coseismic process as well as during the post earthquake recovery, anomaly in vertical direction is always in a majority. The anomalous movement in vertical direction at the initial stage resulted in a blocking between faults, while at the middle stage of seismogenic process, the differential movement between blocks are in a majority, which is the major reason causing energy accumulating at the blocking stage of faults. Foundation item: National Natural Science Foundation of China (40074024 and 40304002).  相似文献   

Differencing Reveals Hidden Changes in Baseline Length Time-series     

H. Bâki Iz 《Journal of Geodesy》2006,80(5):259-269

In order to make successful earthquake predictions, detection and monitoring of baseline changes are important for investigating their origins, including precursory crustal deformations in tectonically active areas. In this study, differencing two baselines that run approximately parallel to each other and normal to the expected crustal deformations, and that share a station is proposed for analysis. Differencing reduces common systematic baseline errors, thereby enabling detection of subtle transient systematic changes in the baseline time-series that are otherwise buried in the measurement noise. Mean shift analysis, a well-known statistical technique to determine hether the mean of a stochastic process has shifted using cumulative sum charts, can then be used to locate the change points in the time-series. The application of this method to the differences of concurrently observed very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) and global positioning system (GPS) baselines in the Japanese Keystone project, where periodic and persistent baseline changes are removed, revealed transient variations in the baseline lengths several months prior to the seismic activity in the Izu Islands that started on June 26, 2000. Reproduction of the results using GPS and VLBI, two alternative baseline measurement techniques, validated the accuracy of the proposed approach for detecting previously hidden transient changes in the baseline lengths.  相似文献   

D.G. Frey and E.S. Deevey Review 1: Numerical tools in palaeolimnology – Progress, potentialities, and problems     

H.J.B. Birks  H.J.B Birks 《Journal of Paleolimnology》1998,20(4):307-332

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基于时序预报神经网络的斜坡变形预测方法     

黄国明  苏文智 《中国煤田地质》1996,8(4):56-57

将神经网络理论引入到斜坡变形预测领域，利用时序数据构造训练样本，在训练过程中引入遗忘因子和期望因子，形成相应的网络结构，初步探索出了一条新的预测斜坡变形的理论方法。  相似文献   

Excitation Sompi method and its application to an analysis of the Earth's polar motion     

Yukiko Yokoyama 《Geophysical Journal International》2002,150(2):467-482

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How well do ecosystem indicators communicate the effects of anthropogenic eutrophication?     

Abigail McQuatters-Gollop  Alison J. Gilbert  Laurence D. Mee  Jan E. Vermaat  Yuri Artioli  Christoph Humborg  Fred Wulff   《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2009,82(4):583-596

Anthropogenic eutrophication affects the Mediterranean, Black, North and Baltic Seas to various extents. Responses to nutrient loading and methods of monitoring relevant indicators vary regionally, hindering interpretation of ecosystem state changes and preventing a straightforward pan-European assessment of eutrophication symptoms. Here we summarize responses to nutrient enrichment in Europe's seas, comparing existing time-series of selected pelagic (phytoplankton biomass and community composition, turbidity, N:P ratio) and benthic (macro flora and faunal communities, bottom oxygen condition) indicators based on their effectiveness in assessing eutrophication effects. Our results suggest that the Black Sea and Northern Adriatic appear to be recovering from eutrophication due to economic reorganization in the Black Sea catchment and nutrient abatement measures in the case of the Northern Adriatic. The Baltic is most strongly impacted by eutrophication due to its limited exchange and the prevalence of nutrient recycling. Eutrophication in the North Sea is primarily a coastal problem, but may be exacerbated by climatic changes. Indicator interpretation is strongly dependent on sea-specific knowledge of ecosystem characteristics, and no single indicator can be employed to adequately compare eutrophication state between European seas. Communicating eutrophication-related information to policy-makers could be facilitated through the use of consistent indicator selection and monitoring methodologies across European seas. This work is discussed in the context of the European Commission's recently published Marine Strategy Directive.  相似文献   

西北太平洋黑潮路径变化与柔鱼CPUE的关系研究   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

邵全琴  马巍巍  陈卓奇  游智敏  王文宇 《海洋与湖沼》2005,36(2):111-122

利用西北太平洋长时间序列SST、黑潮路径、柔鱼渔获量数据,基于GIS技术分析了黑潮路径类型变化和离岸摆动及其对柔鱼CPUE的影响。分析结果表明,1990—2003年,黑潮弯曲发生的月份数占82％,其中整月发生弯曲的月份数占47％,共发生2次大弯曲、2次准弯曲、5次小弯曲。柔鱼年CPUE,在黑潮发生准弯曲年份最高,黑潮发生小弯曲年份较高,黑潮发生大弯曲年份和平直年份较低,黑潮大弯曲发生的强盛年份最低。柔鱼月CPUE高值时段,多是黑潮发生弯曲时段,且主要是C型弯曲。连续3月以上出现月CPUE高值段,黑潮路径模式是C型弯曲和平直路径交替出现。3天CPUE的高值时段,黑潮弯曲型的频次远高于平直型;较高值时段,黑潮弯曲型的频次稍高于平直型;中值时段,黑潮平直型频次稍高于弯曲型;较低值时段,黑潮平直型高于弯曲型;低值时段,黑潮平直型远高于弯曲型。  相似文献   

利用渔场环境因子标准化西北太平洋柔鱼CPUE的研究     

雷林  汪金涛  陈新军  陆化杰 《海洋学报》2019,41(1):134-141

本文利用1998-2016年西北太平洋柔鱼渔业数据及其渔场（35°~45°N，140°~165°E）的海洋遥感环境数据，包括海表温度、海面高度异常和叶绿素浓度，采用基于渔场环境的方法标准化西北太平洋柔鱼单位捕捞努力量渔获量（catch per unit effort，CPUE）。结果表明:柔鱼高频次作业的海表温度范围为10.2~22.2℃（96.05%），海面高度异常范围为-15.9~28.2 cm（97.91%），叶绿素浓度范围为0.0~1.0 mg/m3（96.69%）。名义CPUE和基于环境因子的标准化CPUE年际变化趋势基本一致。但由于柔鱼作业方式高度集中，有效捕捞努力量远低于名义捕捞努力量，以及考虑环境因子影响效应，名义CPUE均低于标准化CPUE。在深入理解鱿钓渔业和其生物学特性的基础上，基于渔场环境因子准化后的CPUE更具代表性，建议在以后的柔鱼资源评估与管理中使用基于渔场环境因子的标准化CPUE。  相似文献   

Effects of spatio-temporal and environmental factors on distribution and abundance of wintering anchovy Engraulis japonicus in central and southern Yellow Sea     

牛明香  金显仕  李显森  王俊 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2014,32(3):565-575

We investigated the spatio-temporal and environmental factors that affect the distribution and abundance of wintering anchovy and quantifi es the infl uences of these factors. Generalized additive models(GAMs) were developed to examine the variation in species distribution and abundance with a set of spatiotemporal and oceanographic factors, using data collected by bottom trawl surveys and remote sensing in the central and southern Yellow Sea during 2000–2011. The fi nal model accounted for 28.21% and 41.03% of the variance in anchovy distribution and abundance, respectively. The results of a two-step GAM showed that hour, longitude, latitude, temperature gradient(TGR), and chlorophyll a(Chl- a) concentration best explained the anchovy distribution(presence/absence) and that a model including year, longitude, latitude, depth, sea surface temperature(SST), and TGR best described anchovy abundance(given presence). Longitude and latitude were the most important factors affecting both distribution and abundance, but the area of high abundance tended to be east and south of the area where anchovy were most likely to be present. Hour had a signifi cant effect on distribution, but year was more important for anchovy abundance, indicating that the anchovy catch ratio varied across the day but abundance had an apparent interannual variation. With respect to environmental factors, TGR and Chl- a concentration had effects on distribution, while depth, SST, and TGR affected abundance. Changes in SST between two successive years or between any year and the 2000–2011 mean were not associated with changes in anchovy distribution or abundance. This fi nding indicated that short- and long-term water temperature changes during 2000–2011 were not of suffi cient magnitude to give rise to variation in wintering anchovy distribution or abundance in the study area. The results of this study have important implications for fi sheries management.  相似文献