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Hannah M. Clilverd Yin‐Phan Tsang Dana M. Infante Abigail J. Lynch Ayron M. Strauch 《水文研究》2019,33(5):699-719
Climate change has fundamentally altered the water cycle in tropical islands, which is a critical driver of freshwater ecosystems. To examine how changes in streamflow regime have impacted habitat quality for native migratory aquatic species, we present a 50‐year (1967–2016) analysis of hydrologic records in 23 unregulated streams across the five largest Hawaiian Islands. For each stream, flow was separated into direct run‐off and baseflow and high‐ and low‐flow statistics (i.e., Q10 and Q90) with ecologically important hydrologic indices (e.g., frequency of flooding and low flow duration) derived. Using Mann–Kendall tests with a running trend analysis, we determined the persistence of streamflow trends through time. We analysed native stream fauna from ~400 sites, sampled from 1992 to 2007, to assess species richness among islands and streams. Declines in streamflow metrics indicated a general drying across the islands. In particular, significant declines in low flow conditions (baseflows), were experienced in 57% of streams, compared with a significant decline in storm flow conditions for 22% of streams. The running trend analysis indicated that many of the significant downward trends were not persistent through time but were only significant if recent decades (1987–2016) were included, with an average decline in baseflow and run‐off of 10.90% and 8.28% per decade, respectively. Streams that supported higher native species diversity were associated with moderate discharge and baseflow index, short duration of low flows, and negligible downward trends in flow. A significant decline in dry season flows (May–October) has led to an increase in the number of no‐flow days in drier areas, indicating that more streams may become intermittent, which has important implications for mauka to makai (mountain to ocean) hydrological connectivity and management of Hawai'i's native migratory freshwater fauna. 相似文献
2.
Regime shift and principal component analysis of a spatially disaggregated database capturing time-series of climatic, nutrient and plankton variables in the North Sea revealed considerable covariance between groups of ecosystem indicators. Plankton and climate time-series span the period 1958–2003, those of nutrients start in 1980. In both regions, the period from 1989 to 2001 identified in principal component 1 had warmer surface waters, higher Atlantic inflow and stronger winds, than the periods before or after. However, it was preceded by a regime shift in both open (PC2) and coastal (PC3) waters during 1977 towards more hours of sunlight and higher water temperature, which lasted until 1997. The relative influence of nutrient availability and climatic forcing differed between open and coastal North Sea regions. Inter-annual variability in phytoplankton dynamics of the open North Sea was primarily regulated by climatic forcing, specifically by sea surface temperature, Atlantic inflow and co-varying wind stress and NAO. Coastal phytoplankton variability, however, was regulated by insolation and sea surface temperature, as well as Si availability, but not by N or P. Regime shifts in principal components of hydrographic and climatic variables (explaining 55 and 61% of the variance in coastal and open water variables) were detected using Rodionov's sequential t-test. These shifts in hydroclimatic variables which occurred around 1977, 1989, 1997 and 2001, were synchronized in open and coastal waters, and were tracked by open water chlorophyll and copepods, but not by coastal plankton. North–central–south or open-coastal spatial breakdowns of the North Sea explained similar amounts of variability in most ecosystem indicators with the exception of diatom abundance and chlorophyll concentration, which were clearly better explained using the open-coastal configuration. 相似文献
3.
The large, extensive tufa deposits of the semi‐arid Naukluft Mountains, Namibia are potentially important palaeoenvironmental indicators in an area with few proxy records. Tufas are reliable indicators of increased moisture availability, and have been shown to be amenable to 234U–230Th dating, although two challenges are detrital contamination and open‐system behaviour. Densely cemented tufa facies are good candidates for dating, minimising these problems. We report attempts to date five densely‐cemented units, which are only found rarely within the Naukluft deposits. We applied a detailed methodology using multiple subsample analysis, measurement of insoluble residues, application of ‘isochron’ mixing lines, and attempted open‐systems modelling, alongside observations of micromorphology and cathodoluminescence in order to assess the validity of any obtained dates. Surprisingly, densely cemented tufas were found not always to be suitable for dating. Two units contained detrital contamination, which could not be corrected for using a single leachate correction or ‘isochron’ methods. Two units contained ‘excess 230Th’. This could result under a closed‐system if initial (234U/238U) was sufficiently high. Alternatively this may be the result of open‐system behaviour, and loss of uranium, or incorporation of initial unsupported 230Th, which render samples unsuitable for 234U–230Th dating. Micromorphological appearance and cathodoluminescence behaviour are used to explore these possibilities. This study exemplifies the need for careful sample selection, and highlights the importance of analysing multiple subsamples from any tufa sample. The detailed methodology applied proves to be a powerful tool for identifying the range of problems that can be encountered when selecting suitable candidate samples for successful dating. It also shows that semi‐arid tufa sequences may contain very little material suitable for dating. A reliable age of c 80 ka was obtained for a banded unit within a large fluvial barrage, with less reliable dates suggesting tufa deposition during times since >350 ka through to the late Holocene. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
4.
The need for building human and institutional capacity has been identified in Agenda 21 of the UNCED conference as well as by a number of international environmental institutions as essential for integrated coastal management (ICM) and sustainable development in developing coastal states. There is a growing need for coastal management practitioners and organizations with expertise in planning and implementation for ICM. The application of strategies for institutional development and building human capacity in coastal management and other fields shows that short-term intensive training efforts and long-term institutional strengthening programs are appropriate to address the issues and needs of ICM. An overview of the experience of the URI/USAID International Coastal Resources Management Program in Sri Lanka, Thailand and Ecuador presents lessons learned for strengthening ICM efforts in developing countries. 相似文献
5.
Sustaining and increasing crop production and productivity has to be a major policy thrust for developing countries. Using a simulation approach different production strategies were evaluated conditioned on climate information to derive optimal strategies to help farmers reduce risk and increase productivity. By examining the existence of options in this case planting dates the study provides an analyses of the expected value and risks associated with changing decisions based on the availability of climate forecasts. The 15-March planting date produced the highest mean yield for the two cultivars examined although 1-April, 15-April and 1-May plantings had one to zero probability of crop failures compared to 15-March with crop failures in 4 out of 20 years. Results indicate losses of between 25 and 35 kg/day due to delays in planting from 15-March planting to 1-June planting for the 120- and 150-day cultivar. El niño years were associated with positive yield deviations for both cultivars and most planting dates. Farmers are known to make tactical adjustments to their management in light of information perceived relevant to the prospects of forthcoming crop. Although in its present form most current forecast products do not provide information on onset of the rainfall, however the information they do provide could play a crucial role in helping farmers reduce the risks posed by climatic variability. 相似文献
6.
Abigail Amissah-Arthur 《GeoJournal》2005,62(1):181-189
Sustaining and increasing crop production and productivity has to be a major policy thrust for developing countries. Using a simulation approach different production strategies were evaluated conditioned on climate information to derive optimal strategies to help farmers reduce risk and increase productivity. By examining the existence of options in this case planting dates the study provides an analyses of the expected value and risks associated with changing decisions based on the availability of climate forecasts. The 15-March planting date produced the highest mean yield for the two cultivars examined although 1-April, 15-April and 1-May plantings had one to zero probability of crop failures compared to 15-March with crop failures in 4 out of 20 years. Results indicate losses of between 25 and 35 kg/day due to delays in planting from 15-March planting to 1-June planting for the 120- and 150-day cultivar. El niño years were associated with positive yield deviations for both cultivars and most planting dates. Farmers are known to make tactical adjustments to their management in light of information perceived relevant to the prospects of forthcoming crop. Although in its present form most current forecast products do not provide information on onset of the rainfall, however the information they do provide could play a crucial role in helping farmers reduce the risks posed by climatic variability. 相似文献
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Edmund M. Harris Deborah G. Martin Colin Polsky Lillian Denhardt Abigail Nehring 《The Professional geographer》2013,65(2):345-361
Many recent studies have applied satellite remote sensing data to large-scale hydrologic and biospheric modeling. It is widely accepted that the thermal infrared observations from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) have the potential to estimate land surface conditions, such as surface temperature, near surface air temperature, and near surface water vapor. In this study, algorithms to estimate all three variables are presented and applied to an area covering the state of Oklahoma for a six day period in August, 1994. The results were validated using ground observations from the 111 station Oklahoma Mesonet. Validation of the remote sensing algorithms with Mesonet observations produced comparable results to previous validation studies. In addition, the validation process revealed inadequacies in thermal modeling that had not been detected in previous validation studies leading to the development of a new approach to estimate atmospheric water vapor. 相似文献
9.
Three colonies of the erect, robust branching, cheilostome bryozoan Adeonellopsis sp. were collected from Doubtful Sound, New Zealand, to investigate within‐colony variation in carbonate mineralogy. One‐hundred‐and‐twenty‐one sections from 9 branches were found to contain mostly aragonite, with calcite ranging from 1.1 to 7.3 wt% (mean ± SD = 2.4 ± 1.2 wt%, n = 120). The magnesium (Mg) content in calcite ranged from 5.3 to 13.1 wt% magnesium carbonate (8.8 ± 1.0 wt% MgCO3; n = 120). Calcite content decreased with increasing age proximally along the branch, indicating that secondary thickening is achieved with aragonite. In contrast, an oscillating trend in Mg content along branches suggests that seasonal or interannual environmental parameters may influence this geochemical parameter. Mineralogical variability highlights the need for multiple samples from the same colony to be measured when determining quantitative carbonate mineralogy in bryozoans. Bimineralic bryozoans such as Adeonellopsis sp. may have lower preservation potential than monomineralic bryozoans, and consequently may not survive diagenesis to become fossils. Bimineralic species may also be more vulnerable to dissolution pressure and possible ocean acidification than monomineralic calcitic taxa. 相似文献
10.
Low‐frequency modulation and trend of the relationship between ENSO and precipitation along the northern to centre Peruvian Pacific coast 
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下载免费PDF全文 Luc Bourrel Pedro Rau Boris Dewitte David Labat Waldo Lavado Aude Coutaud Andrea Vera Abigail Alvarado Julio Ordoñez 《水文研究》2015,29(6):1252-1266
The relationship between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and precipitation along the Peruvian Pacific coast is investigated over 1964–2011 on the basis of a variety of indices accounting for the different types of El Niño events and atmospheric and oceanographic manifestations of the interannual variability in the tropical Pacific. We show the existence of fluctuations in the ENSO/precipitation relationship at decadal timescales that are associated with the ENSO property changes over the recent decades. Several indices are considered in order to discriminate the influence of the two types of El Niño, namely, the eastern Pacific El Niño and the central Pacific El Niño, as well as the influence of large‐scale atmospheric variability associated to the Madden and Julian Oscillation, and of regional oceanic conditions. Three main periods are identified that correspond to the interleave periods between the main climatic transitions over 1964–2011, i.e. the shifts of the 1970s and the 2000s, over which ENSO experiences significant changes in its characteristics. We show that the relationship between ENSO and precipitation along the western coast of Peru has experienced significant decadal change. Whereas El Niño events before 2000 lead to increased precipitation, in the 2000s, ENSO is associated to drier conditions. This is due to the change in the main ENSO pattern after 2000 that is associated to cooler oceanic conditions off Peru during warm events (i.e. central Pacific El Niño). Our analysis also indicates that the two extreme El Niño events of 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 have overshadowed actual trends in the relationship between interannual variability in the tropical Pacific and precipitation along the coast of Peru. Overall, our study stresses on the complexity of the hydrological cycle on the western side of the Andes with regard to its relationship with the interannual to decadal variability in the tropical Pacific. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献