Data-based forecasting of beach volumes on monthly to yearly timescales   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Howard N. Southgate   《Coastal Engineering》2008,55(12):1005-1015

Data-based methods for forecasting beach volumes are tested using ground-measured bathymetry from Duck, North Carolina, comprising 26 profiles, 20 year duration and one-month resolution. Derived beach volume time series show weak seasonal and strong event signals. The forecasting methods used are: Holt–Winters (standard and modified), three types of linear regression, and a default forecast in which the latest measurement persists unchanged into the future. Improved forecast accuracies are obtained by two modifications to Holt–Winters, involving an autocorrelation correction and long-term trend-damping, and by smoothing the fitting data using running medians or wavelet approximations. Beach volume forecasts are tested mainly at monthly intervals up to 12 months ahead, with further tests at up to 36 months ahead. Overall, modified Holt–Winters performs best and the default forecast second-best. With an added artificial seasonal signal, modified Holt–Winters outperforms the other methods more substantially.  相似文献   

Lagrangian measurements and modelling of fluid advection in the inner surf and swash zones     

T.E. Baldock  A. KudoP.A. Guard  J.M. AlsinaM.P. Barnes 《Coastal Engineering》2008

New laboratory and field data are presented on fluid advection into the swash zone. The data illustrate the region of the inner surf zone from which sediment can be directly advected into the swash zone during a single uprush, which is termed the advection length. Experiments were conducted by particle tracking in a Lagrangian reference frame, and were performed for monochromatic breaking waves, solitary bores, non-breaking solitary waves and field conditions. The advection length is normalised by the run-up length to give an advection ratio, A, and different advection ratios are identified on the basis of the experimental data. The data show that fluid enters the swash zone from a region of the inner surf zone that can extend a distance seaward of the bore collapse location that is approximately equal to half of the run-up length. This region is about eight times wider than the region predicted by the classical swash solution of Shen and Meyer [Shen, M.C., Meyer, R.E., 1963. Climb of a bore on a beach. Part 3. Runup. Journal of Fluid Mechanics 16, 113–125], as illustrated by Pritchard and Hogg [Pritchard, D., Hogg, A.J., 2005. On the transport of suspended sediment by a swash event on a plane beach. Coastal Engineering 52, 1–23]. Measured advection ratios for periodic waves show no significant trend with Iribarren number, consistent with self-similarity in typical swash flows. The data are compared to recent characteristic solutions of the non-linear shallow water wave (NLSW) equations and both finite difference and finite volume solutions of the NLSW equations.  相似文献   

Summer weather characteristics on the Grove Mountain of East Antarctica     

CHENG Yanjie  BIAN Lingen  LIU Xiaohan 《极地研究(英文版)》2000,11(2)

The summer weather characteristics of the Grove Mountain, East Antarctica, are presented based on the data obtained by Chinese National Antarctic Expedition (CHINARE) in January 1999. The result shows that the pattern of daily variation of temperature and the prevailing wind direction in Grove is similar to that of Zhongshan Station. However, the daily range of temperature and strong wind frequency are much higher than those of Zhongshan Station. The change of wind direction is close to the weather system that impacted the Grove Mountain. The warm and wet air from northern parts often causes the precipitation. The clear weather appears when controlled by eastern winds in January.  相似文献   

胶莱盆地东缘早白垩世莱阳群沉积序列及岩相古地理   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

任天龙 《山东国土资源》2019,35(7):38-45

胶莱盆地东缘早白垩世早期莱阳群沉积体现了湖盆由开始形成—鼎盛—萎缩消亡的全过程,发育由冲洪积相—湖相—三角洲相—河流相沉积的完整序列,且由东至西,由湖相到河流相逐渐过渡;古水流方向显示莱阳期盆地中心位于朱吴断裂、海阳断裂带之间,以断裂带为界,以西水流方向大致为由NW至SE向,以东水流方向则为由SE至NW向;早白垩世早期莱阳期盆地的形成与演化明显受区域性牟(平)-即(墨)断裂带活动所控制。  相似文献   

新疆准东煤田库兰喀孜干勘查区赋煤特征分析          下载免费PDF全文

孙增兵 《山东国土资源》2018,34(1)

该文以准东东部库兰喀孜干勘查区煤田钻探资料和勘探成果资料为基础,对区内煤炭资源分布特点、赋存特征和赋煤规律等方面进行了研究。区内主要含煤地层为中侏罗统西山窑组和下侏罗统八道湾组,含煤层23层,西山窑组19层,平均厚度45.55m,八道湾组3层,总厚度7.30m,其中2,9,13,15,17,21,23煤层为可采煤层,结合煤层厚度、岩性特征和测井结果,对区内煤层进行了对比。同时,从剖面纵向上总结了西山窑组和八道湾组煤层的垂向分布特征、含煤特征,总结了二者的平面展布特征,认为西山窑组煤层总厚度呈中间厚、四周薄的趋势,八道湾组煤层仅分布在井田中部和南部,厚度由南向北逐渐变薄。在此基础上,从沉积学特征、构造环境和沉积环境方面,对赋煤规律进行了浅析,认为煤层发育总体受沉积环境和基底沉降等地质条件的控制。  相似文献   

Structural Setting and Kinematic Analysis of the Halaban Region,Eastern Arabian Shield,Saudi Arabia     

Osama M. KASSEM  Yousef A. ALAMRI  Faisal K. ZAIDI  Abdel Aziz M. AL BASSAM  Mansour H. AL-HASHIM 《《地质学报》英文版》2021,95(3):750-760

The vorticity analysis technique was applied to measure the different lithological units,such as schist,metagranite and metavolcano-sedimentary rocks,which are present in the Halaban region.This work aims to interpret the relationship between the different lithologies and the tectonic setting,in order to elucidate the nature of kinematic analysis in the Halaban region.The kinematic analyses were applied to feldspar porphyroclasts,quartz and hornblende for twentysix samples.The kinematic vorticity number (W_m) for deformed rocks in the study area ranged from～0.6 to 0.9.The direction of the long axes for finite strain data (X axes) revealed a WNW trend with shallow dipping.The direction of the short axes for finite strain data (Z axes) were represented by vertical with associated horizontal foliation.The results of the kinematic vorticity and strain analyses are characterized by simple shear with different degrees of deformation in the Halaban region.Furthermore,our finite strain data shows no significant volume change during deformation.The subhorizontal foliation was synchronized with thrusting and deformation.Furthermore,throughout the overlying nappes,the same attitudes of tectonic contacts are observable,the nappes in the orogens being formed from simple shear deformation.  相似文献   

中国大陆东部强震区和火山区人工地震探测研究综述   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

赖晓玲  孙译 《地球物理学进展》2006,21(3):722-729

介绍了东北、华北、华东和华南的强震区和火山区的地震测深研究成果,揭示了强震区和火山区的地壳深部构造背景.分析表明,地壳深部断裂、中下地壳低速层、速度结构的差异、波速比异常、泊松比和岩性的不同、上地幔顶部隆起、莫霍界面较大的起伏、复杂的壳幔过渡带、滑脱构造、深部岩浆活动等构造特征与东部地区强震形成和发生有较为密切的关系.  相似文献   

辽东的主要剪切带及其金矿化特征   总被引：13，自引：7，他引：6       下载免费PDF全文

刘如琦  戴立军  商木元  王铁军  汪振斌  崔武军  关康 《地质科学》2006,41(2):181-194

辽东地区构造上位于辽中—吉南元古宙活动带西南部,为胶辽克拉通金矿床分布比较集中的地区。金矿化作用发生于古元古宙变质沉积岩和花岗片麻岩的韧性及脆-韧性剪切带之中,剪切活动与成金事件具同时性关系。矿化剪切带分为3大系统,其中近东—西向和北东—南西向两大系统发育于辽河群分布区,其受控于岩石非均匀性,分别借助于早(吕梁)期S₁(≈S₀)和S₂或D₃剪切带而形成,剪切活动(构造事件)与成金事件主要发生于印支运动;丹东韧性剪切带及其相关构造为本区最重要的含矿系统,矿床均顺主构造线分布,并规律性地受控于其次级构造,剪切带的形成和成金事件均在燕山运动时期。本区提供了一个特殊的克拉通成矿作用格局:容矿岩石时代老,成金事件时代新。  相似文献   

Discovery of Paleogene Sporopollen from the Matrix Strata of the Naij Tal Group-Complex in the Eastern Kunlun Orogenic Belt   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

GUO Xianpu  WANG Naiwen  DENG Xiaozhong  ZHAO Min  WANG Daning Institute of Geology  Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences  Beijing 《《地质学报》英文版》2006,80(4):490-497

The Naij Tal Group-complex is a suite of tectonic-sedimentary melange aggregation of the Eastern Kunlun orogenic belt, which is composed of two parts, i.e. the exotic blocks of various ages and the matrix strata. On the basis of coral, brachiopod and gastropod fossils found in the exotic blocks, the age of this group-complex was once defined to the Late Ordovician or the Paleozoic. This paper reports for the first time 44 genera and 31 species of Mid-Late Oligocene sporopollen in samples from the matrix strata in this group-complex and the Paleogene Quercoidites-Persicarioipollis assemblage is named. The paper aims to provide some detailed evidence for determining the age of the matrix strata in this group-complex based upon a study at the Caiyuanzigou section, which would be of great geological significance for further understanding this group-complex as a suite of tectonic-sedimentary melange aggregation. The new finding will certainly benefit from now on the investigation of formation and evolution mechanism for the Eastern Kunlun orogenic belt.  相似文献   

粤东南澳岛青澳海滩侵蚀退化风险评价及其安全调控          下载免费PDF全文

李平  杜军  张志卫  徐国强 《海洋科学进展》2020,38(1):171-181

分析了南澳岛海滩资源储量、空间分布及其开发利用现状,开展海岛海滩侵蚀风险评价,选择青澳海滩开展岸滩及其海湾海床地形、沉积物、动力泥沙调查,分析探讨了青澳海滩泥沙动力沉积特征,灾变退化过程机制,并从海滩稳定性和游客安全角度给出安全调控建议。结果表明:1)南澳岛海滩资源储量与侵蚀风险区域分异特征明显,其中青澳海滩旅游活动频繁、开发强度大,侵蚀退化风险等级高,人为破坏干扰抑制滩海泥沙交换,无序无度占滩开发与利用破坏了海滩自然演化进程,短期过量旅游活动加速海滩侵蚀退化进程;2)青澳湾沉积物以粗粒砂为主,沙源供给不足,不同岸段岸线进退与岸滩蚀淤与海滩方位、波浪动力强度强弱关系密切,具有明显的纵向沉积地貌分带特征。湾内落潮优势流(SE)优于涨潮(NW),对泥沙输运进入湾内具有抑制作用,潮周期海湾泥沙自湾内向湾外输运,泥沙以外输为主单宽输沙为3 400 t;3)青澳海滩存在严重的"无序占滩建筑,污水肆意排放,管理不规范"等问题,监测评价亦表明侵蚀退化风险巨大,游客安全面临着风险隐患,建议青澳海滩实行以生态化养护开发和"游客为中心"为理念的安全调控措施,设立红线及安全标示。该研究为岛礁生态建设、海岛保护及修复提供科学依据。  相似文献