Modelling net erosion responses to enviroclimatic changes recorded upon multisecular timescales     

Nazzareno Diodato   《Geomorphology》2006,80(3-4):164-177

Land use change has been recognized throughout the Earth as one of the most important factors influencing the occurrence of rainfall-driven geomorphological processes. However, relating the occurrence of historical soil erosion rates is difficult because of the lack of long-term research projects in river basins. Also, complex models are not adequate to reconstruct erosion rate changes because they require significant input data not always available on long timescales. Given the problems with assessing sediment yield using complex erosion models, the objective of this study is to explore a parsimonious scale-adapted erosion model (ADT) from the original Thornes and Douglas algorithms, which aims at reconstruction of annual net erosion (ANE) upon multisecular timescales. As a test site, the Calore River basin (3015 km² in southern Italy) provides a peculiar and unique opportunity for modelling erosion responses to climate and land cover changes, where input-data generation and interpretation results were also supported by documented hydrogeomorphological events that occurred before and after land deforestation. In this way, ANE_ADT-values were reconstructed for the period 1675–2004 by using precipitation indexes, complemented by recent instrumental records, and by using land cover statistics from documented agrarian sources. Pulses of natural sedimentation in the predeforestation period have been related to Vesuvius volcanic activity and changes in rainstorm frequency. After deforestation, the basin system became unstable with sudden fluctuations in the hydrogeomorphological regime contributing significantly to increased erosion and, in turn, sediment transport sequences via river drainage towards the Tyrrhenian coast.  相似文献   

Lake-Level Fluctuations and Small-Scale Vegetation Patterns During the Late Glacial in The Netherlands     

Johanna A. A. Bos  Sjoerd J. P. Bohncke  C. Roel Janssen 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2006,35(2):211-238

Late glacial changes in the vegetation were studied in and around a former lake on the southeastern side of a coversand ridge near Milheeze (southern Netherlands). Analyses of microfossils and macroremains and AMS ¹⁴C dating were performed on four sediment cores along a transect from sand ridge to the lake centre. Small-scale vegetation patterns and lake-level fluctuations were reconstructed in detail based on the information provided by the transect. For the first time in The Netherlands, cores along a transect within one lake were used to reconstruct the amplitude of late glacial lake-level fluctuations. Near Milheeze, a small and shallow lake was formed during the Bølling. The large increase in the water level during the Bølling and early Allerød, and the transition to more eutrophic conditions at the start of the Allerød, were probably related to the disappearance of permafrost. During the Allerød, open birch and pine woodlands developed in the area. In the lake, organic deposits accumulated, and the lake size and depth fluctuated. At the start of the Younger Dryas, higher lake water levels were recorded and woodlands became more open as a result of both a drop in the temperature and an increase in the effective precipitation. During the late Younger Dryas the lake water level dropped as the climate became drier and temperatures slightly increased. Accumulation of organic deposits in the lake ceased at the end of the Younger Dryas, which was caused by a drop in the water level in combination with the hydroseral succession process within the lake itself. The climatic signal reflected in the late glacial flora and lake-level fluctuations agree well with other published data from The Netherlands.  相似文献   

A Comparison of Sediment Varves (1950–2003 AD) in Two Adjacent Lakes in Northern Sweden     

V. Gälman  G. Petterson  I. Renberg 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2006,35(4):837-853

Koltjärnen and Nylandssjön are two closely situated lakes (<2 km apart) in northern Sweden. During the past century, distinct varved sediments have formed in these lakes. Nylandssjön has two varved, deep basins. Since lake and catchment characteristics superficially appear very similar for the two lakes and they are exposed to the same climate, one would expect the sediment varves to be similar. This investigation compares the varves in the two deep basins of Nylandssjön, and in the two lakes. The comparison of basins of Nylandssjön shows that varve thickness, water content and annual accumulation rates of organic matter and nitrogen are correlated for the period (1970–2003). The grey-scale curves are only clearly similar in about 50% of the varves. In the between-lake comparison varve thickness, water content and annual accumulation rates of organic matter and nitrogen are correlated for the period (1950–1996). However, the annual accumulation rates of dry mass, minerogenic matter and biogenic silica differ between the lakes, as well as within-varve successions in grey-scale. A general explanation to the differences is that the prerequisites for varve formation are not totally similar because of differences in catchment size, catchment- to-lake material fluxes, lake productivity and land-use influence. This study illustrates the complex relationships that exist between a lake, its catchment, in-lake productivity and formation of sediment varves. As a consequence, we must not apply a too simplistic view of the potential of varves as past climatic indicators, especially if the lakes are affected by land-use.  相似文献   

Sedimentary facies and climate control on formation of vivianite and siderite microconcretions in sediments of Lake Baikal, Siberia     

Tomasz Sapota  Ala Aldahan  Ihsan S. Al-Aasm 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2006,36(3):245-257

Authigenic vivianite and siderite microconcretions were found, respectively, in hemipelagic and deltaic facies of 600-m-long BDP-98 sediment section from Lake Baikal. Textural investigations of these microconcretions show that they are typically <1 mm in size, irregular in shape and composed of aggregated crystallites. Dissimilar orientation of vivianite and siderite crystallites suggests formation at different depths in the sediment; up to tens of centimeters for vivianite and tens of meters for siderite. Chemical analyses of both the vivianite and the siderite indicate cation composition characterized by minor amounts of Mn, Ca and Mn apart from the dominating Fe. Rather limited and distinctive carbon isotopic composition of the siderite, with δ ¹³C_VPDB values between about +13 and +16‰, implies formation of the mineral in the methanogenic zone of diagenesis. Isotopic composition of oxygen in the siderite (δ ¹⁸O_VPDB values between about −10 and -11‰ ) is consistent with crystallization temperature at about 10–30°C and water δ ¹⁸O_SMOW values between about −10 and -16‰ . The distribution of the authigenic minerals in the section suggests changes in both sedimentary facies and climate, where vivianite formation was controlled by hemipelagic depositional conditions during the Pliocene and Quaternary, whereas siderite reflects impact of deltaic conditions during the Miocene.  相似文献   

近20年全球总云量变化趋势分析   总被引：29，自引：2，他引：29       下载免费PDF全文

丁守国赵春生  石广玉武春爱 《应用气象学报》2005,16(5):670-677

利用ISCCP月平均云气候资料集的总云量资料, 采用趋势分析的方法, 得到1983年7月至2001年9月近20年来全球平均总云量的变化趋势, 并分析云量变化的可能原因。近20年全球增温幅度加快, 研究这期间云的变化, 对气候研究和模拟具有重要的意义。结果表明:平均大气环流决定总云量的分布;全球平均总云量的变化趋势在20世纪80年代末发生逆转, 即由增加转为减少;全球平均云量呈减少的变化趋势, 2000年与1987年相比, 减少量约占平均总云量的4%;从地理位置上看, 云量的变化存在区域性差异, 热带和中纬度地区的总云量减少较多, 高纬度地区云量略有增加, 其中南极大陆云量增加较多。  相似文献   

A multidisciplinary multi-scale framework for assessing vulnerabilities to global change   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Marc J. Metzger  Rik Leemans  Dagmar Schrter 《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2005,7(4):253-267

Terrestrial ecosystems provide a number of vital services for people and society, such as food, fibre, water resources, carbon sequestration, and recreation. The future capability of ecosystems to provide these services is determined by changes in socio-economic factors, land use, atmospheric composition, and climate. Most impact assessments do not quantify the vulnerability of ecosystems and ecosystem services under such environmental change. They cannot answer important policy-relevant questions such as 'Which are the main regions or sectors that are most vulnerable to global change?’ 'How do the vulnerabilities of two regions compare?’ 'Which scenario is the least harmful for a sector?’This paper describes a new approach to vulnerability assessment developed by the Advanced Terrestrial Ecosystem Analysis and Modelling (ATEAM) project. Different ecosystem models, covering biodiversity, agriculture, forestry, hydrology, and carbon sequestration are fed with the same Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Each model gives insights into specific ecosystems, as in traditional impact assessments. Moreover, by integrating the results in a vulnerability assessment, the policy-relevant questions listed above can also be addressed. A statistically derived European environmental stratification forms a key element in the vulnerability assessment. By linking it to other quantitative environmental stratifications, comparisons can be made using data from different assessments and spatial scales.  相似文献   

地磁场与气候变化关系的新探索   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：5  

高晓清  柳艳香  董文杰  汤懋苍 《高原气象》2002,21(4):395-401

对地磁场与气候变化的统计研究早已表明，二者有很好的相关关系。本文的目的是对它们的关系给出一种可能的物理解释。利用近600年的地磁场模型资料和全球平均温度序列分析了两者变化的关系，发现它们有很好的对应，且地磁场变化超前于全球气温变化。从地磁场的变化来看，21世纪初全球变暖的趋势应该减缓。文中对地表浅层热场（地热带、火山和地温场）的分布特征与地球内部软流圈－岩石圈边界上焦耳热场的分布特征进行了对比分析。结果表明，地表浅层热场与地球深层焦耳热的分布有很好的对应关系，这可能暗示地表浅层热场是地球深层焦耳热的反映，地磁场通过焦耳热的不断释旋影响气候变化。  相似文献   

当代气候研究计划   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李崇银 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2002,25(5):1-4

就气候系统问题，国际上与气候及其变化有关的重要科学计划、尤其是气候变化及可预报性研究（CLIVAR）计划，作了简要介绍，同时还就气候预测问题作了讨论。  相似文献   

近十年来我国气候变暖影响研究的若干进展   总被引：51，自引：12，他引：51       下载免费PDF全文

王馥棠 《应用气象学报》2002,13(6):755-766

近年来，我国政府和科技界十分关注气候王馥棠变暖对我国经济发展可能影响的评估, 开展了许多重大项目和课题的研究。该文仅就气候变暖对我国自然植被、农业、森林、水资源、能源利用和区域海平面上升等领域影响评估研究的若干有意义的初步结果简要归纳和评述如下:取自不同GCM模型的未来气候变化情景下的影响评估模拟表明，我国的特征性自然植被类型将会发生明显的变化。同当前气候（1951~1980年）下的模拟分布相比，到2050年我国几乎所有地方的农业种植制度均将发生较大变化；气候变暖将导致复种指数增加和种植方式多样化，但降水与蒸散之间可能出现的负平衡和土壤水分胁迫的增加以及生育期的可能缩短，最终将导致我国主要作物的产量下降。气候变暖对我国水资源最明显的影响将会发生在黄淮海流域，这个区域的水资源供需短缺将大大提高。同时，气候变暖将改变我国室内取暖和降温的能源需求关系:北方冬季取暖的能源消耗将减少, 而南方夏季降温的能源消耗将会增加。海平面的上升将使我国三个主要沿海低洼脆弱区，即珠江三角洲、长江三角洲和黄河三角洲，面临部分遭受海水淹没的威胁。  相似文献   

Predicting average annual groundwater levels from climatic variables: an empirical model   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

Zhuoheng Chen  Stephen E. Grasby  Kirk G. Osadetz 《Journal of Hydrology》2002,260(1-4):102-117

On the basis of one-dimensional theoretical water flow model, we demonstrate that the groundwater level variation follows a pattern similar to recharge fluctuation, with a time delay that depends on the characteristics of aquifer, recharge pattern as well as the distance between the recharge and observation locations. On the basis of a water budget model and the groundwater flow model, we propose an empirical model that links climatic variables to groundwater level. The empirical model is tested using a partial data set from historical records of water levels from more than 80 wells in a monitoring network for the carbonate rock aquifer, southern Manitoba, Canada. The testing results show that the predicted groundwater levels are very close to the observed ones in most cases. The overall average correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed water levels is 0.92. This proposed empirical statistical model could be used to predict variations in groundwater level in response to different climate scenarios in a climate change impact assessment.  相似文献