ENSO事件中次表层海温距平在10°N附近向西传播的机理   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

巢纪平  蔡怡 《气象学报》2005,63(4):385-390

在最大温度距平的极值曲面上,对观测资料的分析表明,在这个曲面上的次表层海温距平,一般从西太平洋暖池附近沿赤道向东传播,然后在东太平洋95°W附近向两极传播,并在10°N附近(北半球比南半球清楚)向西传播,再在140°E暖池海域传向赤道,形成一个信号传播的回路。文章试图研究东太平洋次表层海温距平信号在10°N附近向西传播的可能机制。低空850 hPa风场的资料分析表明,当ENSO处在暖(冷)位相时,东太平洋沿岸附近将出现经向风,首先在经向风的吹引下,将产生沿岸的Kelvin波,进而在经向风的辐散(辐合)作用下,通过沿岸的上升(下沉)流在各个纬度激发出向西的Rossby波,但理论表明在与观测接近的周期性经向风作用下由Kelvin波产生的沿岸上升(下沉)流在10°N附近最大,因此在那个纬度附近Rossby波的振幅最大,更易将距平意义下的冷(暖)水传向西太平洋。  相似文献   

Persistent effects of physical disturbance on meiobenthos in mangrove sediments     

Dye AH 《Marine environmental research》2006,62(5):341-355

Disturbance is an important factor in structuring ecological communities, exerting its influence through changes to the physical environment and to the trajectories of successional processes. Marine environments are subject to a wide range of disturbances and while much is known about the effects of disturbance on macrobenthos in unconsolidated sediments, little is known about the responses of meiobenthos to disturbance in consolidated sediments, such as mangroves. Trampling was used to study the response of meiobenthos to disturbance in mangrove sediments. Even light trampling appeared to break up the mangrove root mat and increased the proportion of fine sediment. Densities of meiobenthos increased 2-3-fold in disturbed sediments, but there was no evidence of disproportionate abundance. Temporal variability was similar in all treatments, but spatial variability increased 4-5-fold in disturbed sediments. Effects persisted for at least 24 months, with little evidence of convergence of treatments. Meiobenthos may have exploited the increase in habitat resulting from loss of the root mat and possibly benefited from increased food from the decomposition of root material. These effects are likely to persist for several years because of the minimal recovery of the root mat.  相似文献   

磁暴期内夜间h’F的突增现象   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

沈长寿  资民筠 《地球物理学报》1998,41(2):156-161

用3个经度链上电离层垂测站资料分析磁暴时夜间h＇F的同时突增现象提出了电动耦合在夜间出现东向电场从而使F层抬升的物理机制同时也解释了突增现象在午夜后更多,且增幅更强的事实．  相似文献   

Short- and long-term patterns of sponge diversity on a rocky tropical coast: evidence of large-scale structuring factors   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jose Luis Carballo  Cristina Vega  José Antonio Cruz-Barraza  Benjamin Yáñez  Héctor Nava  Enrique Ávila  & Miroslava Wilson 《Marine Ecology》2008,29(2):216-236

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不确定性对象表达及其时空拓扑研究     

薛存金  苏奋振 《地球信息科学学报》2009,11(4):475-481

不确定性对象时空拓扑关系研究的滞后,严重制约了时空推理与分析的进展。文中分析了时空对象空间信息与时间信息不确定性,并引入Rough集理论的上、下近似集概念对不确定性对象进行表达。另外,根据时空对象空间与时间信息的确定性与否,把时空对象归纳为4种类型,时空对象间的时空拓扑描述框架归纳为10种。再是,基于点集理论、Egenhofer的空间拓扑与舒红的时态拓扑关系研究成果,给出4-交扩展模型的时空拓扑描述框架,并得出类型I对象间的时空拓扑是最基本的拓扑关系,类型IV对象间的拓扑关系是最复杂的拓扑关系,其他类型对象间的时空拓扑都可通过类型对象I间的和类型对象IV间的时空拓扑演绎而得。最后,鉴于不确定性对象时空拓扑的复杂性,给出不确定性拓扑描述表达的流程体系。  相似文献   

基于多尺度分割算法的湿地干扰格局研究     

孔博  陶和平  刘斌涛  陈伟利  张继飞 《国土资源遥感》2009,(4):62-67

以三江平原具有典型湿地特征的建三江区为例,首先采用不同时间段归一化植被指数（NDVI）差值的变化监测人类活动改变的土地利用变化程度,然后结合遥感图像多尺度分割法,分析湿地系统的8种类型空间干扰格局,计算干扰度（PD）、干扰邻近度（PDD）及二者的相关性。结果表明：研究区土地利用类型变化对多尺度干扰格局的分布有明显影响,耕地、草地和沼泽地总干扰率较高,变化频繁;水域、林地和沼泽在干扰类型C1、C2中分布较广,但干扰值低,面积小;耕地分别占干扰类型C7、C8的74.38%和61.76%,干扰值高且面积大,说明耕地是建三江区湿地系统的主要干扰源。干扰邻近度说明干扰在一定尺度上发生,当干扰度PD＆lt;0.4或PD＆gt;0.7,且干扰邻近度PDD＆gt;PD时,干扰对周边土地类型必定产生影响。本研究为湿地生态系统脆弱性和恢复力的评价提供有效的生态特征指标。  相似文献   

The influence of plant removal on succession in Wyoming big sagebrush     

C.S. Boyd  T.J. Svejcar 《Journal of Arid Environments》2011,75(8):734-741

Restoration treatments are based on the largely untested notion that desired recovery of plant communities following disturbance wouldn’t occur in the absence of active intervention. We identified rate of short-term (10 year) floristic changes following removal of plant functional groups in Wyoming big sagebrush plant communities in 1999-2005 and 2008. Treatments imposed on 6 × 6 m plots were: 1) removal of all plant functional groups, 2) perennial grass removal, 3) shrub removal and 4) control. Our data suggest recovery of the shrub component on shrub removal plots could take decades. Similarly, perennial grass cover and density on perennial grass removal plots was less than half that of unaltered plots 10 years after treatment. When all functional groups were removed, cover of annual forbs, annual grasses, and shrubs returned to unaltered levels within ten years or less. Perennial forbs were unaffected (p > 0.05) by treatment. The fact that natural recovery of some components occurred within a relatively short post-disturbance time interval (i.e. <10 years) suggests that intervention may not be necessary for some functional groups. Restoring shrubs in areas dominated by perennial grasses may require targeted reductions of competing perennial grasses. Conversely, shrub dominance may limit perennial grass re-establishment.  相似文献   

The Uncertainty of Mesoscale Numerical Prediction of Heavy Rain in South China and the Ensemble Simulations?          下载免费PDF全文

CHEN Jing  XUE Jishan  YAN Hong 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2005,19(1):1-18

In the context of non-hydrostatic MM5 version we have explored the impact of convective parameterization schemes on uncertainty in mesoscale numerical prediction of South China heavy rain and mesoscale heavy rainfall short-range ensemble simulation by using two kinds of physics perturbation methods through a heavy rain case occurring on June 8, 1998 in Guangdong and Fujian Provinces. The results show the physical process of impacts of convective schemes on heavy rainfall is that different latent heat of convective condensation produced by different convective schemes can make local temperature perturbation, leading to the difference of local vertical speed by the intrinsic dynamic and thermodynamic processes of atmosphere,and therefore, making difference of the timing, locations and strength of mesh scale and subgrid scale precipitation later. New precipitations become the new source of latent heat and temperature perturbation,which finally make the dynamic and thermodynamic structures different in the simulations. Two kinds of methods are used to construct different model version stochastically. The first one is using different convective parameterization and planetary boundary layer schemes, the second is adjusting different parameters of convective trigger functions in Grell scheme. The results indicate that the first ensemble simulations can provide more uncertainty information of location and strength of heavy rainfall than the second. The single determinate predictions of heavy rain are unstable; physics ensemble predictions can reflect the uncertainty of heavy rain, provide more useful guidance and have higher application value.Physics ensembles suggest that model errors should be taken into consideration in the heavy rainfall ensembles. Although the method of using different parameters in Grell scheme could not produce good results, how to construct the perturbation model or adjust the parameter in one scheme according to the physical meaning of the parameter still needs further investigation. The limitation of the current study is that it is based on a single case and more cases will be addressed in the future researches.  相似文献   

Non‐ergodicity and PEER's framework formula     

Armen Der Kiureghian 《地震工程与结构动力学》2005,34(13):1643-1652

A framework formula for performance‐based earthquake engineering, advocated and used by researchers at the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research (PEER) Center, is closely examined. The formula was originally intended for computing the mean annual rate of a performance measure exceeding a specified threshold. However, it has also been used for computing the probability that a performance measure will exceed a specified threshold during a given period of time. It is shown that the use of the formula to compute such probabilities could lead to errors when non‐ergodic variables (aleatory or epistemic) are present. Assuming a Poisson model for the occurrence of earthquakes in time, an exact expression is derived for the probability distribution of the maximum of a performance measure over a given period of time, properly accounting for non‐ergodic uncertainties. This result is used to assess the approximation involved in the PEER formula for computing probabilities. It is found that the PEER approximation of the probability has a negligible error for probabilities less than about 0.01. For larger probabilities, the error depends on the magnitude of non‐ergodic uncertainties and the duration of time considered and can be as much as 20% for probabilities around 0.05 and 30% for probabilities around 0.10. The error is always on the conservative side. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Site-specific prediction of West Nile virus mosquito abundance in Greater Toronto Area using generalized linear mixed models     

Eun-Hye Yoo 《International journal of geographical information science》2014,28(2):296-313

Mosquito surveillance programs provide a primary means of understanding mosquito vector population dynamics for the risk assessment of human exposure to West Nile virus (WNv). The lack of spatial coverage and missing observations in mosquito surveillance data often challenge our efforts to predict this vector-borne disease and implement control measures. We developed a WNv mosquito abundance prediction model in which local meteorological and environmental data were synthesized with entomological data in a generalized linear mixed modeling framework. The discrete nature of mosquito surveillance data is accommodated by a Poisson distributional assumption, and the site-specific random effects of the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) capture any fluctuation unexplained by a general trend. The proposed Poisson GLMMs efficiently account for the nested structure of mosquito surveillance data and incorporate the temporal correlation between observations obtained at each trap by a first-order autoregressive model. In the case study, Bayesian inference of the proposed models is illustrated using a subset of mosquito surveillance data in the Greater Toronto Area. The relevance of the proposed GLMM tailored to WNv mosquito surveillance data is highlighted by the comparison of model performance in the presence of inevitable but quantifiable uncertainties.  相似文献