Long-term prediction of intermediate depth earthquakes in the southern Aegean region based on a time-predictable model   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

B. C. Papazachos 《Natural Hazards》1993,7(3):211-218

Repeat times of strong intermediate depth (60 km h 180 km) earthquakes have been determined by the use of instrumental and historical data for six seismogenic sources in the Benioff zone of the southern Aegean area. For four of these sources, at least two interevent times (three mainshocks) are available for each source. By using the repeat times for these four sources, the following relation has been determined: logT _t = 0.20M _min + 0.19M _p +a, whereT _t is the repeat time (in years),M _min the surface wave magnitude of the smallest earthquake considered,M _p the magnitude of the preceding mainshock and a parameter which varies from source to source. A multilinear correlation coefficient equal to 0.91 was determined for this relation, which indicates that the time predictable model holds to a satisfactory degree for the strong mainshocks of intermediate focal depth in the southern Aegean.By assuming that the ratioT/T _t, whereT is the observed andT _t the calculated repeat time, follows a lognormal distribution, the conditional probabilities for the occurrence of strong (M _s 6.5) and very strong (M _s 7.5) earthquakes during the period 1991–2001 in these four seismogenic sources have been calculated. These probabilities are very high (P > 0.9) for the strong and high (P > 0.5) for the very strong intermediate depth earthquakes which occur in the three sources of the shallower (h < 100 km) part of the Benioff zone where coupling occurs between the front parts of the Mediterranean lithosphere (downgoing) and the Aegean lithosphere.  相似文献   

Die Rheingrabenrandverwerfung im Wattkopftunnel bei Ettlingen (Nordschwarzwald)     

Ernst Neßeler  Michael Fröhler  Sebastían Lebede 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1993,82(4):765-768

The Wattkopftunnel, near Ettlingen (Nordschwarzwald), drives through the eastern margin of the Rheingraben. The tunnel passes cenozoic and mesozoic sediments. Early quarternary and tertiary beds are situated west of the main thrust of the Rheingraben. Fossil record indicates upper Oligocene age (Chatt) for parts of the tertiary sediments. At the eastern border of the Rheingraben, wedges of jurassic and middle triassic series are squeezed. East of the Rheingraben the tunnel drives in the lower triassic Bausandstein. The eastern margin of the Rheingraben was investigated in detail during tunneling. Faults of the Rheingraben margin are distributed in an 130 meter wide fault zone in the tunnel. Total stratigraphic separation by the normal faults reaches more than 2 000 meters. The cenozoic sequence suffered synsedimentary to early diagenetic deformation, while the mesozoic series are characterized by ruptural deformation. The fault- and joint system is directed in the rheinische Richtung (SSW-NNE). East of the Rheingraben a second direction occur, running parallel to the lower Albtal (W-E).

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Stable isotope study of carbonate-cemented rocks from the Pobitite Kamani area,north-eastern Bulgaria     

R. W. Botz  V. Georgiev  P. Stoffers  Kh. Khrischev  V. Kostadinov 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1993,82(4):663-666

The Precipitation of carbonate cements in the Pobitite Kamani area (Lower Eocene) began during early diagenesis of sediments. There is evidence, however, that calcite is still forming today.The negative ¹³C values to –29.2 suggest that the carbonate formed during degradation of ¹²C-enriched organic matter (perhaps partly from oxidation of methane). The ¹⁸O values of –0.9 to –1.6 reflect the marine origin of the early diagenetic carbonate cements. Most of the carbonates, however, formed during late diagenesis (at approximately 1300 m burial depth) and/or recently (after uplift) from percolating groundwaters. These carbonates have an isotopic composition characteristic of carbonates which precipitated from meteoric waters under normal sedimentary temperatures in isotopic equilibrium with ¹²C-enriched soil carbon dioxide.  相似文献   

On the tidal variation of the geopotential     

José M. Ferrándiz  Juan Getino 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1993,57(1-2):279-292

In this paper analytical expressions are derived for the temporal variations ofJ ₂ andJ ₂₂ due to the tides of the solid Earth, taking into account only the deformation of the mantle, and employing a procedure already used by the authors in their Hamiltonian theory of the Earth's rotation, which obtain the necessary parameters in a direct way by integration of those provided by a selected model of Earth interior.Numerical tables giving the periodic variation of coefficients are given, as well as a new prediction for UT1. For J ₂ and J ₂₂ the amplitudes reach such a magnitude that both two variations should not be ignored in studies involving the analysis of highly precise satellite tracking data. Moreover, the possibility of improving our knowledge of the value of those harmonic coefficients in only a more exact digit appears as to be strongly dependent on the limitations in the theoretical modeling of the variations of the inertia tensor due to solid tides.  相似文献   

Energy efficiency evaluation,technology gap ratio,and determinants of energy productivity change in developed and developing G20 economies: DEA super-SBM and MLI approaches     

《Gondwana Research》2024

This study employed Slack-based measure (SBM), Meta-frontier analysis, and Malmquist–Luenberger index (MLI) approaches to measure energy efficiency (EE), production technology heterogeneity, and energy productivity variation and its main determinants in developed and developing G20 countries for the period 1995–2020. The study's findings are: (i) Average EE for G20 countries is 0.8577, but still has an improvement potential of 14.23 percent. (ii) Developed countries have a higher average EE than developing (0.8927 > 0.8290). Results further revealed that energy efficiency scores in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, France, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the US, the UK, and Korea are>1. (iii) Technology gap ratio (TGR) value in developed countries is higher than in developing (0.9869 > 0.6801), indicating that developed countries have advanced energy technologies superiority. The average MLI is less than one, showing a decline in energy productivity mainly due to a decline in technical efficiency, as EC < TC. (iv) Developed G20 countries get 0.64 percent aggregate growth in energy productivity as their MLI score is 1.0064, mainly due to technological growth (TC = 1.0161). Developing G20 countries, on the other hand, witnessed a decline in their energy productivity during 1995–2020, as MLI = 0.9925 > 1, designating that, on average, there is a 0.75 % decline in MLI.  相似文献   

南海海盆区莫霍面分布规律及其对深部钻探的意义     

秦绪文  张宝金  赵斌  路允乾  陈玺  王利杰  许振强  张如伟  耿明会  杨振  李建平  吕文超  尉建功 《地质学报》2022,96(8):2635-2646

钻遇莫霍面是人类一直以来的梦想。深海海底是地球上离莫霍面最近的地方，目前有研究推测南海是世界上莫霍面深度最浅的海域之一，但缺乏足够的直接证据。深反射地震探测可以直接揭示岩石圈的构造形态，是莫霍面探测的重要手段。本文基于长达15000 km的深反射多道地震剖面的解释、处理、制图和分析，结合前人的研究，形成了南海海盆区莫霍面反射特征和空间分布的初步认识。① 南海东部次海盆南部早期经历了较快速扩张，岩浆供应充足，受扩张停止后岩浆活动影响较小，基底平坦，地质构造相对简单，同时洋壳地震速度结构不存在异常，且有较强的广角莫霍面反射波和可识别的地幔顶部折射波，具备莫霍面钻探的基本条件。② 南海海盆不同区域的莫霍面反射强度存在较大差异。其中东部次海盆莫霍面反射最为强烈且清晰，西北次海盆次之，西南次海盆仅有零星出现的清晰莫霍面反射且可信度不高。③ 识别南海海盆区莫霍面地震反射长度超过3500 km，首次形成了海盆区深度域莫霍面地震反射空间分布图。与重力反演的莫霍面深度相比，利用深反射多道地震计算的莫霍面深度细节更为丰富，并且可以在垂向上清晰刻画莫霍面的结构。整体上，南海海盆区莫霍面地震反射强烈和可信度高的区域中，深度较浅的区域之一是东部次海盆南部，最浅处仅约9. 5 km，其中水深4. 01 km，洋壳厚度仅5. 54 km。综合判断，东部次海盆南部是南海重要的莫霍面钻探备选区，这对南海莫霍面钻探选址具有重要意义。  相似文献   

南海北部陆缘新生代玄武岩地球化学特征及成因     

曹楚奇  熊发挥  杨胜标  徐向珍  刘飞  牛晓露  冯光英  邱添  杨经绥 《地质学报》2022,96(8):2683-2704

南海盆地及周缘地区新生代玄武岩对揭示南海盆地的演化历史至关重要，然而这些玄武岩的成因还存在争议。本文研究了位于南海北部陆缘的海南岛临高县多文组玄武岩岩石地球化学和矿物地球化学特征，并探讨其成因和构造背景。多文组玄武岩主要由橄榄石、单斜辉石、斜长石、斜方辉石、铬尖晶石和铁钛氧化物等组成。橄榄石Fo值变化于55. 5~71. 1之间，Ni的含量较低， Fe/Mn比值较高。铬尖晶石Cr#值为74. 1~82. 7，Mg#值为45. 5~63. 8， Ti的含量较高。斜方辉石Mg#值为63. 9~79. 6，单斜辉石为66. 0~80. 6。单斜辉石稀土配分曲线富集MREE，亏损LREE和HREE，呈拱形分布。斜长石以中- 拉长石为主(Ab36. 56~52. 78), 富集LREE、Ba、Sr和Eu。铁钛氧化物的TiO2含量为50. 19%~51. 46%。多文组玄武岩原始岩浆的主量和微量元素组成与夏威夷、峨眉山、塔里木等玄武岩组成一致，地幔源区包含了辉石岩的成分，而且其地幔潜在温度(＞1400℃)和氧逸度(ΔNNO)要高于大洋中脊玄武岩(N- MORB)，表明多文组玄武岩的形成与海南地幔柱活动有关。由于海南地幔柱形成时代明显晚于南海盆地的扩张时代，认为南海地幔柱是南海盆地伸展的被动响应。  相似文献   

珠江口盆地西江主洼油气差异分布机制     

刘培  张向涛  林鹤鸣  杜家元  冯进  陈维涛  梁杰  贾培蒙 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2021,51(1):52-64

西江主洼是珠江口盆地一个低勘探程度洼陷，油气差异聚集特征明显，但其机理不清。本文在断陷盆地油气成藏理论指导下，利用研究区地质、地球物理和地球化学等资料，开展了烃源岩、断盖组合、储集体系和运聚模式等方面的研究。结果表明，裂陷期沉降、沉积中心有序迁移，造成主力烃源岩自东向西由文四段迁移至文三段、文一+二段，控制东、西部油气差异分布。恩平组区域性泥岩发育且晚期断裂缺乏，导致油气纵向上更易聚集于下构造层；区域泥岩减薄尖灭或晚期断裂切开盖层的区域，上构造层有一定油气分布。"源-汇"类型从宏观上控制储层优劣，影响下构造层油气富集程度；"仓储"运移是控制上构造层油气规模聚集的主要模式。下构造层古近系应作为重点部署方向，东部围绕文四段、西部围绕文三段、文一+二段烃源岩构成的含油气系统展开；上构造层勘探需关注珠海组，在隆起周边寻找具备"仓储"运移模式的有利区带。  相似文献   

地铁施工对济南白泉泉群流量的影响     

束龙仓  王小博  李虎  倪寒茜  李罡  余亚飞  王鑫  张曼琦 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2021,51(1):192-200

为研究地铁建设对济南白泉泉群的影响，在综合分析白泉泉域地质、水文地质条件的基础上，假定研究区岩溶强径流带位置及水力性质，利用FEFLOW软件建立地下水流数值模型。以规划地铁M1号线为研究对象，分析了济南东站、梁王站、梁王东站分别施工及3个站同时施工4种情景下，采用施工降水或施工降水+人工回灌两种施工方式对白泉泉群流量的影响。结果表明：单独采用施工降水的施工方式使得白泉泉群流量衰减，其中3个站同时施工对泉流量的影响最大，泉流量最大衰减达5.48%；各站分别施工时，济南东站对泉流量影响最大，泉流量较未施工时减少了0.043×10⁴ m³/d。采用施工降水+人工回灌的施工方式，能够有效缓解泉流量的衰减，各车站施工时的泉流量衰减由仅施工降水时的2.26%~5.48%降低至0.08%~1.21%。岩溶强径流带有利于地下水形成优势径流，促进白泉泉群补给，一定程度上缓解因地铁施工引起的泉流量衰减。  相似文献   

赣南合龙钨矿矿床地质、成岩成矿时代与成矿模式     

尹政  赵正  陶建利  吴胜华  李宏伟  甘加伟  陈伟  李小伟 《岩石学报》2021,37(5):1531-1552

合龙钨矿床位于南岭东西向构造岩浆带与北-北东向于山构造带交汇部位,是南岭东段于都-赣县矿集区的重要组成。合龙钨矿床是赣南地区近年在石英脉型钨矿勘查取得最重要突破的矿区,新发现钨多金属矿体达48条,新探明黑钨矿资源量3.5万余吨,WO_3平均品位2.189%,深部具有大型以上资源潜力。合龙钨矿床以外带石英大脉型矿体与岩体内石英细脉-云英岩型钨矿体分带共生为特色,区别于经典的石英脉型钨矿床的"五层楼"分带,也不同于"西华山式"仅岩体内成矿和"盘古山式"的仅岩体外成矿,故对其开展成岩成矿时差研究、内外带成矿过程对比研究和成矿模式研究具有重要意义。本文在矿床地质工作基础之上,对该矿床进行了较详细的矿物学研究,对比了不同阶段、不同分带黑钨矿和白钨矿的矿物化学特征;应用LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb法获得深部隐伏中细粒斑状黑云母花岗岩的成岩年龄为159.0Ma;应用辉钼矿Re-Os等时线法,测定了内带石英脉-云英岩型矿体成矿时代为157.3Ma,外带石英脉型矿体成矿时代为159.6Ma。研究表明,合龙钨矿床形成于燕山早期,是华南东部中生代大规模花岗质岩浆活动与钨多金属成矿作用的产物,其成矿作用紧随花岗质岩浆侵入而发生,成岩与成矿时间基本一致。内脉带矿化略晚于外脉带钨矿化,外脉带黑钨矿以相对高温阶段形成的含锰钨铁矿为主,内脉带黑钨矿则以成矿作用中晚期的含铁钨锰矿为主。基于上述研究成果,本文建立了"合龙式"钨矿床成矿模式,对石英脉-云英岩型钨矿成矿理论研究具有一定的推动作用,对下一步勘查工作部署具有重要实践意义。  相似文献