ParBreZo: A parallel,unstructured grid,Godunov-type,shallow-water code for high-resolution flood inundation modeling at the regional scale     

Brett F. Sanders  Jochen E. Schubert  Russell L. Detwiler 《Advances in water resources》2010

Topographic data are increasingly available at high resolutions (<10 m) over large spatial extents to support detailed flood inundation modeling and loss estimation analyses required for flood risk management. This paper describes ParBreZo, the parallel implementation of a two-dimensional, Godunov-type, shallow-water code, to address the computational demand of high-resolution flood modeling at the regional scale (10²–10⁴ km²). A systematic approach to unstructured grid partitioning (domain decomposition) is presented, and the Single Process Multiple Data (SPMD) paradigm of distributed-memory parallelism is implemented so the code can be executed on computer clusters with distributed memory, shared memory, or some combination of the two (now common with multi-core architectures). In a fully-wetted, load-balanced test problem, the code scales very well with a parallel efficiency of close to 100% on up to 512 processes (maximum tested). A weighted grid partitioning is used to partially address the load balancing challenge posed by partially wetted domains germane to flooding applications, where the flood extent varies over time, while the partitioning remains static. An urban dam-break flood test problem shows that weighted partitions achieve a parallel efficiency exceeding 70% using up to 48 processes. This corresponds to a 97% reduction in execution time so results are obtained in a matter of minutes, which is attractive for routine engineering analyses. A hurricane storm surge test problem shows that a 10 m resolution, 12 h inundation forecast for a 40 km length of coastline can be completed in under 2 h using 512 processors. Hence, if coupled to a hurricane forecast system capable of resolving storm surge, inundation forecasts could be made at 10 m resolution with at least a 10 h lead time.  相似文献   

Retrospective analysis of the impacts of major hurricanes on sediments in the lower Everglades and Florida Bay     

W.-J.?Kang  J.?H.?TrefryEmail author 《Environmental Geology》2003,44(7):771-780

A record of the impacts of major hurricanes on sediment stratigraphy and composition in subtropical ecosystems has been preserved in the lower Everglades and Florida Bay. These impacts were observed in discontinuous layers of sediment that were identified from high-resolution, vertical profiles of excess ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs. Discontinuities were found at different geographic locations and at two to three different depths in the sediment column; however, the layers were each deposited within time periods that corresponded with the passing of category 3–5 hurricanes during 1960, 1948 and 1935. A simple mass balance model for excess ²¹⁰Pb was used to show net changes of ±20–100% in excess ²¹⁰Pb inventory that resulted from sediment disturbances of <1 to >22 cm. Abrupt shifts in sediment composition were often observed in hurricane-impacted layers. Ratios of organic (C/P) were four- to fivefold higher than normal in post-hurricane layers of sediment at open bay sites. These layers are phosphorus poor and seem to reflect preferential decomposition of organic P relative to organic C in association with hurricanes. The net effect is for major hurricanes to redistribute sediment, organic matter and nutrients.This revised version was published online in July 2003.  相似文献   

Hurricane-induced landslide activity on an alluvial fan along Meadow Run, Shenandoah Valley, Virginia (eastern USA)     

Gerald F. Wieczorek  L. Scott Eaton  Thomas M. Yanosky  Eric J. Turner 《Landslides》2006,3(2):95-106

Although intense rainfall and localized flooding occurred as Hurricane Isabel tracked inland northwestardly across the Blue Ridge Mountains of central Virginia on September 18–19, 2003, few landslides occurred. However, the hurricane reactivated a dormant landslide along a bluff of an incised alluvial fan along Meadow Run on the western flanks of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Subsequent monitoring showed retrogressive movement involving several landslide blocks for the next several months. Using dendrochronology, aerial photography, and stream discharge records revealed periods of landslide activity. The annual variation of growth rings on trees within the landslide suggested previous slope instability in 1937, 1972, 1993, 1997, and 1999, which correlated with periods of local flood events. The avulsive and migrating nature of Meadow Run, combined with strong erosional force potential during flood stages, indicates that landslides are common along the bluff-channel bank interface, locally posing landslide hazards to relatively few structures within this farming region.  相似文献   

Resilient Landscapes: The Reconstruction of Southeastern Connecticut Following the 1938 Hurricane     

Elyse Zavar  Ronald R. Hagelman  III 《The Professional geographer》2018,70(3):443-452

Following the 1938 hurricane that damaged much of the New England coast, New London, Connecticut, responded like most communities by leveraging federal and state funds to rebuild and augment engineered mitigation structures. Eighty years of subsequent storm experience, however, illustrates that a small number of nonstructural mitigation projects, especially private property acquisitions, have had significant long-term effects on New London's coastal resiliency, especially in the Ocean Beach neighborhood. Archival research identifies that these nonstructural mitigation projects were not initially intended to reduce hurricane or flooding risk but were aimed at removing structures determined to be public nuisances and reducing fire hazard. Therefore, New London's post-1938 mitigation experience underscores how community-scale mitigation planning following one disaster can greatly affect the outcome of future disasters. Analytically, New London's experience offers a compelling case study to critically compare two competing environmental mitigation approaches following the same disaster and to offer insight into the environmental legacies of both.  相似文献   

Adaptive capacity in light of Hurricane Sandy: The need for policy engagement     

《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2014

The aftermath of Hurricane Sandy brings to light the tenuous U.S. model of natural disaster management. Climatic extremes, like Sandy, are projected to increase in magnitude and frequency, calling upon societies to adapt appropriately to imminent threats. In this paper, we describe the knowledge and policy disconnect exposed by Sandy between what we submit are four key elements of adaptive capacity: resources, institutions, knowledge and innovation of technology. Our synthesis of multi-disciplinary expert knowledge and admonition from civil engineers, climatologists, and urban planners demonstrates the significance of mobilizing knowledge to design robust socio-ecological systems. We contrast the U.S. model to the Dutch system of climate adaptation to emphasize the feasibility, value, and effectiveness of adopting robust adaptive capacities, rather than policies steeped in reactionary responses. Such strategies that integrate coordination and imagination from members across society are imperative in translating scientific foresight into institutional action. The solution we offer is not only material for a more action-based discussion, but also provides an illustration of crafting policy that enhances adaptive capacities of socio-ecological systems.  相似文献   

三维变分同化机载雷达资料对飓风预报的影响研究——2012年Isaac试验     

陆续  马旭林  王旭光 《大气科学》2015,39(6):1112-1122

随着气旋内部资料(Inner core data)在热带气旋预报中的使用,其重要性逐渐受到人们越来越多的关注。为了研究该资料中尾部机载雷达(Tail Doppler Radar,TDR)资料在业务系统中的应用效果,本文利用2012年飓风等级热带气旋Isaac期间的TDR资料,采用业务HWRF(Weather Research and Forecasting model for Hurricane)数值模式与业务GSI(Grid-point Statistical Interpolation system)三维变分同化(Three-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation, 3DVar)系统对TDR资料进行了同化,展开了一系列预报试验,并对其效果进行了分析和研究。结果表明与HWRF的业务预报相比,GSI系统同化TDR资料后对热带气旋的路径和强度预报有明显改进;但其同化效果同时也表明业务三维变分中的静态背景误差协方差在TDR资料的应用中仍需要进一步的改进。  相似文献   

Extreme Waves and Wave Run-up in Halifax Harbour under Climate Change Scenarios     

Fumin Xu  William Perrie 《大气与海洋》2013,51(4):407-420

The tendency for rising sea levels, combined with changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme storm events raises the potential for flooding and inundation of coastal locations such as Halifax Harbour, in the context of climate change. In this study, we consider three scenarios for extreme high water levels based on climate change scenarios and estimates for land subsidence, rising mean sea levels, and return period analysis for extreme events (from previous studies). We also investigate the effect of ocean waves on these estimates for extreme high water levels. Because the most damaging storm to make landfall in Nova Scotia over the last century was Hurricane Juan (2003), it was chosen to simulate the extreme case of storm-generated waves and wave run-up in Halifax Harbour. To simulate waves generated by Hurricane Juan, a nested-grid system consisting of two modern state-of-the-art operational wave models was used. High quality winds were used to drive the wave models, and the simulations used recently updated high resolution coastal bathymetry. Observed water elevation changes in Halifax Harbour were used in wave model simulations of Hurricane Juan. The Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) run-up model is used to estimate wave run-up elevation, which is validated with recorded high water observations along the coastline. Simulated waves and wave run-up elevations for Hurricane Juan suggest that the maximum significant wave heights at the mouth of the Harbour were 9.0 m, and the wave run-up was as high as 2.0 m along the shoreline of Halifax Harbour. In this way, we estimated the impact of waves and wave run-up on extreme high water elevations for three climate change scenarios in Halifax Harbour, under worst-case conditions. The sensitivity of these estimates is analyzed for different water level variations, wave propagation directions and shore slope profiles.

[Traduit par la rédaction] La tendance à la hausse du niveau de la mer de pair avec les changements dans la fréquence et l'intensité des événements de tempêtes extrêmes augmentent le risque d'inondation et de submersion à des emplacements côtiers comme le port d'Halifax dans le contexte du changement climatique. Dans cette étude, nous examinons trois scénarios de niveaux de hautes eaux extrêmes basés sur des scénarios de changement climatique et estimations de subsidence du terrain, l’élévation du niveau moyen de la mer ainsi que l'analyse de la période de retour d’événements extrêmes (faite lors d’études antérieures). Nous examinons aussi les effets des vagues de l'océan sur ces estimations de niveaux de hautes eaux extrêmes. Étant donné que la tempête la plus dévastatrice à avoir touché terre en Nouvelle–Écosse au cours du dernier siècle a été l'ouragan Juan (2003), c'est celle-ci que nous avons choisie pour simuler le cas extrême de vagues produites par une tempête et de remontée de vagues dans le port d'Halifax. Pour simuler les vagues produites par Juan, nous nous sommes servis d'un système à grilles imbriquées consistant en deux modèles de vagues opérationnels à la fine pointe de la technologie. Les modèles de vagues étaient pilotés par des données de vent de haute qualité et les simulations disposaient d'une bathymétrie côtière à haute résolution récemment mise à jour. Les changements observés d’élévation de l'eau dans le port d'Halifax ont été utilisés dans les simulations de l'ouragan Juan par les modèles de vagues. Nous utilisons le modèle de remontée des vagues de la Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) pour estimer la hauteur des remontées, qui est validée par rapport aux observations de hautes eaux enregistrées le long de la côte. Les vagues et les hauteurs de remontée des vagues simulées pour l'ouragan Juan suggèrent que la hauteur significative maximale des vagues à l'entrée du port était de 9,0 m et la remontée des vagues atteignait 2,0 m le long de la côte du port d'Halifax. Nous avons de cette manière estimé l'impact des vagues et de la remontée des vagues sur l’élévation des hautes eaux extrêmes pour trois scénarios de changement climatique dans le port d'Halifax dans les conditions les plus défavorables. Nous analysons la sensibilité de ces estimations à divers changements de niveau d'eau, directions de propagation et profils de pente côtière.  相似文献