Uncertainty as the overlap of alternate conditional distributions     

Olena Babak  Clayton V. Deutsch 《Computational Geosciences》2008,12(4):503-512

An important task in modern geostatistics is the assessment and quantification of resource and reserve uncertainty. This uncertainty is valuable support information for many management decisions. Uncertainty at specific locations and uncertainty in the global resource is of interest. There are many different methods to build models of uncertainty, including Kriging, Cokriging, and Inverse Distance. Each method leads to different results. A method is proposed to combine local uncertainties predicted by different models to obtain a combined measure of uncertainty that combines good features of each alternative. The new estimator is the overlap of alternate conditional distributions.  相似文献   

Retailing local food in the Scottish-English borders: A supply chain perspective     

B. Ilbery  D. Maye 《Geoforum》2006,37(3):352-367

Local food is championed as one alternative response to industrial systems of food production and supply. While advocacy for local food is high, there is a lack of empirical evidence about the actual shape and scale of such food supply chains, especially from a retail perspective. Using supply chain diagrams, this paper presents a summary of ‘new’ agro-food geographies for five different retail types—farm shops, butchers, caterers, specialist shops, supermarkets/department stores—that all source local food from suppliers in the Scottish-English borders. Presented as five separate ‘shopping trips’, the paper examines where, how and why retailers source local food. Results reveal the complex nature of local food systems, especially in terms of intra-sector competitive dynamics (with a notable tension between direct forms of retail and established (independent) retailers), links and overlaps with ‘normal’ food retail systems and elastic notions of the ‘local’. The paper also draws a key distinction between locally produced and locally supplied food products.  相似文献   

HP–LT Variscan metamorphism in the Cubito-Moura schists (Ossa-Morena Zone, southern Iberia)     

Guillermo Booth-Rea  Jos Fernando Simancas  Antonio Azor  Jos Miguel Azan  Francisco Gonzlez-Lodeiro  Paulo Fonseca 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2006,338(16):1260-1267

Multi-equilibrium thermobarometry shows that low-grade metapelites (Cubito-Moura schists) from the Ossa–Morena Zone underwent HP–LT metamorphism from 340–370 °C at 1.0–0.9 GPa to 400–450 °C at 0.8–0.7 GPa. These HP–LT equilibriums were reached by parageneses including white K mica, chlorite and chloritoid, which define the earliest schistosity (S₁) in these rocks. The main foliation in the schists is a crenulation cleavage (S₂), which developed during decompression from 0.8–0.7 to 0.4–0.3 GPa at increasing temperatures from 400–450 °C to 440–465 °C. Fe³⁺ in chlorite decreased greatly during prograde metamorphism from molar fractions of 0.4 determined in syn-S₁ chlorites down to 0.1 in syn-S₂ chlorites. These new data add to previous findings of eclogites in the Moura schists indicating that a pile of allochtonous rocks situated next to the Beja-Acebuches oceanic amphibolites underwent HP–LT metamorphism during the Variscan orogeny. To cite this article: G. Booth-Rea et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).  相似文献   

Heavy metals in freshly deposited sediments of the river Subernarekha, India: an example of lithogenic and anthropogenic effects   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

A. K. Upadhyay  K. K. Gupta  J. K. Sircar  M. K. Deb  G. L. Mundhara 《Environmental Geology》2006,50(3):397-403

Heavy metal distribution patterns in river sediments aid in understanding the exogenic cycling of elements as well as in assessing the effect of anthropogenic influences. In India, the Subernarekha river flows over the Precambrian terrain of the Singhbhum craton in eastern India. The rocks are of an iron ore series and the primary rock types are schist and quartzite. One main tributary, the Kharkhai, flows through granite rocks and subsequently flows through the schist and quartzite layers. The Subernarekha flows through the East Singhbhum district, which is one of India’s industrialised areas known for ore mining, steel production, power generation, cement production and other related activities. Freshly deposited river sediments were collected upstream and downstream the industrial zone. Samples were collected from four locations and analysed in <63-μm sediment fraction for heavy metals including Zn, Pb, Cd and Cu by anodic stripping voltammetry. Enrichment of these elements over and above the local natural concentration level has been calculated and reported. Sediments of the present study are classified by Muller’s geo-accumulation index (I _geo) and vary from element to element and with climatic seasons. During pre-monsoon period the maximum I _geo value for Zn is moderately to highly polluted and for Cu and Pb is moderately polluted, respectively, based on the Muller’s standard. Anthropogenic, lithogenic or cumulative effects of both components are the main reasons for such variations in I _geo values. The basic igneous rock layer through which the river flows or a seasonal rivulet that joins with the main river may be the primary source for lithogenic components.  相似文献   

水库下游河流再造床过程中的河岸侵蚀   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

张春燕  陈立  张俊勇  王志国 《水科学进展》2005,16(3):356-360

根据实测河道地形资料,分析了水库下游河床演变中的河岸侵蚀现象,包括不同横向边界约束条件、不同床沙组成和不同河型河段的河岸侵蚀的特征及规律。结果表明:①水库下游均会有河岸侵蚀发生,但初期一般以下切为主,后期以展宽为主。②对于横向边界约束较强的河段,河岸侵蚀相对较弱;相反,则河岸坍塌严重,河岸侵蚀强烈;③对不同的河床组成和边滩组成的河段:河床较粗特别是形成抗冲粗化层,且边滩组成较细的河段,河岸侵蚀现象非常剧烈;河床组成较细的河段,如果边滩抗冲性较强,则河岸侵蚀现象相对较弱,如果滩地组成较细、容易坍塌,河岸侵蚀也会较强;④不同的河型有着不同的河岸侵蚀现象。分汊河段以主汊为主;游荡段的游荡特性在初期受到抑制;弯曲河段的撇弯切滩现象较普遍。  相似文献   

葛洲坝水利枢纽运行后泥沙冲淤变化分析   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

戴会超  何文社  袁杰  曹叔尤 《水科学进展》2005,16(5):691-695

对葛洲坝水利枢纽及其运行情况和河段特性进行了介绍。分析认为葛洲坝水利枢纽运行前后的入库水沙特性基本一致。探讨了库区冲淤变化特点、淤积量及其分布,冲淤过程及达到冲淤平衡的时间。对坝下游河床的冲淤过程、冲淤量、达到冲淤平衡的时间以及河床粗化,河底高程历年变化及同流量水位降低的原因、降低量及变化过程进行了分析总结。研究结果可为进一步探讨三峡水利枢纽与葛洲坝水利枢纽联合调度运用后水库泥沙淤积变化规律提供参考。  相似文献   

Multicollinearity and correlation among local regression coefficients in geographically weighted regression   总被引：5，自引：3，他引：5  

David Wheeler  Michael Tiefelsdorf 《Journal of Geographical Systems》2005,7(2):161-187

Present methodological research on geographically weighted regression (GWR) focuses primarily on extensions of the basic GWR model, while ignoring well-established diagnostics tests commonly used in standard global regression analysis. This paper investigates multicollinearity issues surrounding the local GWR coefficients at a single location and the overall correlation between GWR coefficients associated with two different exogenous variables. Results indicate that the local regression coefficients are potentially collinear even if the underlying exogenous variables in the data generating process are uncorrelated. Based on these findings, applied GWR research should practice caution in substantively interpreting the spatial patterns of local GWR coefficients. An empirical disease-mapping example is used to motivate the GWR multicollinearity problem. Controlled experiments are performed to systematically explore coefficient dependency issues in GWR. These experiments specify global models that use eigenvectors from a spatial link matrix as exogenous variables.This study was supported by grant number 1 R1 CA95982-01, Geographic-Based Research in Cancer Control and Epidermiology, from the National Cancer Institute. The author thank the anonymous reviewers and the editor for their helpful comments.  相似文献   

Structure Functions In A Wall-Turbulent Shear Flow     

U. Giostra  D. Cava  S. Schipa 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2002,103(3):337-359

Wavelet and quadrant analyses were applied to turbulent velocity data in order to investigate the transition from the anisotropy of energy-containing eddies to the isotropy of the inertial subrange scales. The quadrant analysis of the wavelet coefficients of longitudinal and vertical velocity components allows the evaluation of the velocity structure functions and the momentum cospectrum as a function of the separation distance and of the quadrants. In an isotropic condition the contribution both of ejections and sweeps (even quadrants), and both of reflections and deflections (odd quadrants), has to be equal. The analysis has shown that in neutrally stratified conditions the transition to isotropy occurs in a frequency range (0.2 < r/z < 3) usually referred to as internal to the inertial subrange (r is separation distance, z is height). In the transition region, as in the isotropic region, the velocity structure functions still agree with the 1941 and 1962 Kolmogorov theories; but on the other hand the structure functions of the even and odd quadrants are fitted by power laws of different slopes in the transition region. The proposed analysis allows the investigation within the transition region of the different dynamical structure in the energy transfer from the energy-containing scales to the isotropic scales.  相似文献   

东营凹陷地下水动力场的形成与演化   总被引：10，自引：5，他引：10  

楼章华  朱蓉  金爱民  武恒志  郑和荣  王宁 《地质科学》2003,38(1):85-96

沉积盆地地下水动力场的理想模式可以归纳为对称型和不对称型两种,其中局部地下水动力单元可以划分为泥岩压榨水离心流,大气水下渗向心流,越流、越流蒸发泄水和滞流4种类型。地下水动力场的演化具有旋回性,每个旋回可以分为两个阶段:盆地沉降沉积时期的泥岩压榨水离心流阶段和盆地抬升剥蚀时期的大气水下渗向心流阶段。随沉积盆地的形成与演化,水动力场也有形成、发展和消亡的过程。东营凹陷地下水动力场在平面上呈对称性:总体上大气水由凹陷边缘向凹陷中心渗入,凹陷内部各洼陷为压榨水形成的离心流区,凹陷边缘南部斜坡带和北部断阶带以及凹陷内部中央断裂带为越流泄水区。纵向上,局部水动力单元强度及演化规律与地层的埋藏深度有关。随着埋藏深度的增加,水动力单元强度逐渐减弱。  相似文献   

‘Bringing government to the people’: women, local governance and community participation in South Africa     

Cheryl McEwan 《Geoforum》2003,34(4):469-481

This paper considers the ongoing political transformations in South Africa in the context of debates about good governance and participatory democracy. It first appraises the current transformations of local government in South Africa, focusing specifically on relationships between gender equality and citizenship on the one hand, and local government policy, legislation, and community participation on the other, and then explores meanings of participation and how they inform approaches towards local socio-economic development. The findings of primary research conducted with civil society organisations and black women in communities in the Cape Town metropolitan area are explored through three interrelated themes. First, the model of structured participation that is central to South Africa’s democratic transformation is assessed from the perspective of black women. Second, cultures of alienation, both within local governance structures and amongst black women and the extent to which recent restructuring is combating or contributing to these are explored. Third, how participation policies are dealing with conflict within and between target groups are analysed, whether stakeholder group politics obliterate important differences in interests and whether alternative structures might be more effective in terms of women’s participation and empowerment. Finally, the findings are interpreted in relation to theoretical concepts of good governance and participatory democracy, and the potential and problems of realising South Africa’s transformation process toward developmental local government are assessed.  相似文献