近30 年渤海水文和气象状况的长期变化及其相互关系   总被引：20，自引：3，他引：20  

方国洪  王凯  郭丰义  魏泽勋  范文静  张冬生  毕家胜 《海洋与湖沼》2002,33(5):515-525

利用线性回归方法对渤海和北黄海西部沿岸 7个海洋站 1 965— 1 997年实测海洋表层水温和盐度及地面气温和降水等 4个水文气象要素的长期变化趋势作了分析 ,得出渤海在这 32年期间海表温度年变率为 0 .0 1 5℃ /a ,由此推算得出 32年升高 0 .48℃ ;海表盐度年变率为 0 .0 4 2 /a ,32年升高 1 .34;气温年变率为 0 .0 34℃ /a ,32年升高 1 .0 9℃ ;降水年变率为- 2 .73mm/a,32年减少 87mm。这 4个要素之间及其与厄尔尼诺指数之间的超前 /滞后线性回归分析表明 ,海温与气温的年际变化相关关系最密切 ,相关系数达到 76.5 % ,置信度高于0 .99。其次是盐度与降水 ,它们之间亦有良好关系。同年盐度和降水之间的相关系数为- 43.6% ,盐度落后降水一年时相关系数为 - 39.2 % ,置信度均高于 0 .95。由此可推知 ,盐度变化平均落后降水约半年。渤海水文气象状况变化与厄尔尼诺有一定关系 ,其中以降水与厄尔尼诺关系最密切 ,1 982— 1 983年厄尔尼诺期间渤海气温和水温较高 ,降水显著偏少且海水盐度显著偏高。  相似文献   

一种测定并置站垂线偏差的小网参数转换法          下载免费PDF全文

马小辉  张志斌  孙中苗  米立功  雷鸣  张阿丽  王广利  王宏  谷守周 《天文学报》2021,62(2):18

推导了传统全球卫星导航定位系统(GNSS)测定垂线偏差(Deflection of the Vertical, DOV)形式误差的表达式;提出一种可用以解算并置站DOV的小网参数转换法.利用乌鲁木齐南山多技术并置站控制网观测信息,开展了算法验证,并对该站内多个地点DOV开展了实测.结果表明,高精度的小网DOV仅由点位观测精度最高、覆盖面积最广的3个站点决定.个别精度较差的点会为DOV的测定值带来较大的不确定性;采用小网转换法所解算的DOV与实测值间的一致性分别为-2.3′′±4.3′′(子午分量)和0.2′′±4.6′′(卯酉分量);小网转换求取DOV的方法在精度上与经典的GNSS水准方法相当,但步骤更加简便.鉴于多技术并置站会不定期地开展本地测量,可利用该方法实现多技术并置站DOV的零成本长期监测.  相似文献   

青藏高原东北缘马衔山断裂带构造属性的综合研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

郭晓玉  高锐  高建荣  徐啸  黄兴富 《地球物理学报》2018,61(2):560-569

左旋走滑的马衔山断裂带位于青藏高原东北缘陇中盆地内部,呈北西-南东向伸展.宽约8~10 km,长约115 km.马衔山断裂带表面虽然局部已被黄土覆盖,但并不代表它的活动性不强.1125年的兰州M_S7.0地震就发生在马衔山断裂带北缘的西侧.前人对马衔山断裂带的研究基本上多依靠于地表地质和地球化学数据分析进行一般性讨论,而缺少对马衔山断裂带深部构造伸展的清晰认识.本文中,我们主要依靠一条横跨马衔山断裂带的深地震反射剖面数据资料进行地壳尺度的构造解释.在此基础之上,对研究区所获得的重力数据进行相应的处理分析.最后辅助于马衔山断裂带两侧野外地表形变的观察和前人研究所获得的地球化学数据分析,我们的研究认为马衔山断裂带为一不同块体间的边界断裂带.它可能形成于早古生代祁连造山带东缘北部马里亚纳式岛弧和南部日本式岛弧的相互拼贴作用.该边界断裂带在随后的青藏高原东北缘物质逃逸过程中被激活,并且目前仍处于构造活动活跃期.  相似文献   

基于3S技术的土地利用现状长效管理机制     

王号  曹中初  杨珂拉 《国土资源信息化》2010,(1):63-66

本文介绍了上海市土地利用现状长效管理机制的构建思路、总体框架,及其发现——调查——处置——反馈机制。最后总结了上海市土地利用现状长效管理机制的作用和效果。  相似文献   

Run-up of tsunamis and long waves in terms of surf-similarity     

Per A. Madsen  David R. Fuhrman 《Coastal Engineering》2008

In this paper we review and re-examine the classical analytical solutions for run-up of periodic long waves on an infinitely long slope as well as on a finite slope attached to a flat bottom. Both cases provide simple expressions for the maximum run-up and the associated flow velocity in terms of the surf-similarity parameter and the amplitude to depth ratio determined at some offshore location. We use the analytical expressions to analyze the impact of tsunamis on beaches and relate the discussion to the recent Indian Ocean tsunami from December 26, 2004. An important conclusion is that extreme run-up combined with extreme flow velocities occurs for surf-similarity parameters of the order 3–6, and for typical tsunami wave periods this requires relatively mild beach slopes. Next, we compare the theoretical solutions to measured run-up of breaking and non-breaking irregular waves on steep impermeable slopes. For the non-breaking waves, the theoretical curves turn out to be superior to state-of-the-art empirical estimates. Finally, we compare the theoretical solutions with numerical results obtained with a high-order Boussinesq-type method, and generally obtain an excellent agreement.  相似文献   

Sediment transport and beach morphodynamics induced by free long waves,bound long waves and wave groups   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

T.E. Baldock  P. ManoonvoravongKim Son Pham 《Coastal Engineering》2010

New laboratory data are presented on the influence of free long waves, bound long waves and wave groups on sediment transport in the surf and swash zones. As a result of the very significant difficulties in isolating and identifying the morphodynamic influences of long waves and wave groups in field conditions, a laboratory study was designed specifically to enable measurements of sediment transport that resolve these influences. The evolution of model sand beaches, each with the same initial plane slope, was measured for a range of wave conditions, firstly using monochromatic short waves. Subsequently, the monochromatic conditions were perturbed with free long waves and then substituted with bichromatic wave groups with the same mean energy flux. The beach profile changes and net cross-shore transport rates were extracted and compared for the different wave conditions, with and without long waves and wave groups. The experiments include a range of wave conditions, e.g. high-energy, moderate-energy, low-energy waves, which induce both spilling and plunging breakers and different turbulent intensities, and the beaches evolve to form classical accretive, erosive, and intermediate beach states. The data clearly demonstrate that free long waves influence surf zone morphodynamics and promote increased onshore sediment transport during accretive conditions and decreased offshore transport under erosive conditions. In contrast, wave groups, which can generate both forced and free long waves, generally reduce onshore transport during accretive conditions and increase offshore transport under erosive conditions. The influence of the free long waves and wave groups is consistent with the concept of the relative fall velocity, H/w_sT, as a dominant parameter controlling net beach erosion or accretion. Free long waves tend to reduce H/w_sT, promoting accretion, while wave groups tend to increase the effective H/w_sT, promoting erosion.  相似文献   

High-resolution records of the response of coastal wetland systems to long-term and short-term sea-level variability     

Alexander S. Kolker  Steven L. Goodbred Jr.  Sultan Hameed  J. Kirk Cochran   《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2009,84(4):493-508

While it is well known that coastal systems respond to long-term sea-level changes, the importance of short-term sea-level dynamics is often overlooked. Year-to-year variability in annual mean sea level along the North American Atlantic coast is part of a regionally consistent pattern that is coupled to low atmospheric pressure and high wind field anomalies persisting over 100s to 1000s of km. These short-term sea-level dynamics, along with long-term sea-level changes are shown to be closely coupled to a set of high resolution excess ²¹⁰Pb geochronologies from four physiographically distinct salt marsh estuaries surrounding Long Island, NY, USA. However, the degree to which a marsh responds to either forcing depends on its physiographic setting. Accretion and mineral deposition rates in marshes situated in embayments with long fetches and low-tidal ranges are shown to respond most to the short-term dynamically driven changes in sea level. On the other hand, accretion and mineral deposition in a marsh in an embayment with a high-tidal range and reduced fetch best track the long-term changes in mean sea level, presumably because the physiography limited the meteorological drivers of short-term sea-level change. The close coupling between marsh accretion, physiographic setting and indices of sea-level change indicates that these coastal system respond both differently and rapidly (2–5 yr) to climate variability.  相似文献   

Experimental study of long wave generation on sloping bottoms   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Guohai Dong  Xiaozhou Ma  Marc Perlin  Yuxiang Ma  Bo Yu  Gang Wang 《Coastal Engineering》2009

Low-frequency waves generated on steep (1:10) and mild (1:40) slopes by six series of bichromatic wave groups are studied experimentally. The shorelines for both slopes are replaced by horizontal reaches of small depth. This reduces the reflection of long waves near the shoreline significantly, which for the first time makes possible the explicit observation of outgoing breakpoint forced long waves. The breakpoint and released bound long wave mechanisms on the different slopes are compared. Generally, the breakpoint forced long waves dominate the low-frequency wave field on the steep slope, while the released bound long waves are found to be more significant on the mild slope. Two parameters indexing the effectiveness of the breakpoint mechanism are compared and the normalized slope tends to give more realistic results. Shoaling of bound long waves is analyzed and the shallow-water equilibrium limit ~ h^−5/2 exhibits a good prediction of the variation of the bound long waves on both slopes.  相似文献   

Strategies for spatial and temporal extrapolation and interpolation of wet delay   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

P. O. J. Jarlemark  T. R. Emardson 《Journal of Geodesy》1998,72(6):350-355

. The excess radio-path delay due to the atmospheric water vapor, the wet delay, can be derived from water vapor radiometer (WVR) measurements. WVR data used for external calibration of space geodetic measurements are not always acquired in the directions of the space geodetic signal sources, thus extrapolation and interpolation methods for the wet delay are needed. We evaluate three different methods using approximately 10 days of WVR measurements. Two methods, the gradient method and turbulence method, use the directional information in the data, while the third method used is linear regression in time regardless of the direction of the observations. The turbulence method yielded at least 10% less RMS estimation error than the errors from the other two methods. Received: 20 May 1997 / Accepted: 15 December 1997  相似文献   

地震发生非稳态泊松过程和中长期概率预测研究   总被引：7，自引：4，他引：3  

傅征祥!中国北京  粟生平!中国北京  王晓青!中国北京 《地震》1998,(2)

在描述事件非稳态泊松过程的基本统计特征及其与稳态泊松过程差别的基础上 ,将非稳态泊松过程应用在华北地震区汾渭带和华北平原地震带的中长期地震预测研究中。研究表明 ,假定未来几百年间 ,汾渭带和华北平原带的强震 ( M≥ 7.0 )活动 ,将重现上一次地震轮回的非稳态泊松时间过程 ,那么 ,在 2 0 1 0年前它们发生一次 7级大地震的累计概率分别为 0 .2 6(不确定性范围 :0 .0 6～ 0 .5 0 )和 0 .0 4 (不确定性范围 :0 .0 0～ 0 .1 3)。它们明显地低于按稳态泊松过程得到的发生概率  相似文献