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Sandra García-Bustos Jimmy Landín Ricardo Moreno A.S.E. Chong Maurizio Mulas Mónica Mite 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2020,14(1):56-68
ABSTRACTIn this work, we have studied the largest earthquake magnitudes on the Ecuadorian coast by using the principles of Extreme Value Analysis based on its two approaches: Block Maxima and Peaks-over-Threshold. First, before modelling the recorded earthquakes, the K-means clustering technique was applied to determine a classification according to the level of magnitude of the earthquakes. Then, models based on the Extreme Value theory of earthquake magnitudes were developed for each of the four clusters that were found, and finally, the best-fitted models were those known as Fréchet and Gumbel ones. The zone with the greatest earthquake magnitudes on the Ecuadorian coast is located between the north of the province of Manabí and the south of the province of Esmeraldas, with a return period of 50 years for an earthquake with magnitude greater than 7.7 MW. 相似文献
23.
We present a model to investigate the success and resulting patterns of phytoplankton migration, based on motility which depends exclusively on the internal energy and nutrient state of the cells. The model consists of migrating and non-migrating sub compartments for phytoplankton, and migration is a function of the prescribed threshold values for internal quotas. The different modes of phytoplankton behavior are evaluated in the framework of a coupled physical–biological model that includes wind-driven up- and downwelling. The results show that (1) migration is almost always advantageous with respect to biomass, (2) a wide variety of migration patterns (e.g., subsurface maxima, surface-avoidance behavior) can be reproduced by a relatively simple treatment of motility, (3) multiple deep chlorophyll maxima can be explained as the result of certain threshold values in combination with negligible vertical movement of the water, and (4) descending tongues of high phytoplankton concentration may be caused by migratory behavior and not necessarily by subduction due to frontal convergence. Thus, our model offers explanations for a large variety of observed phytoplankton distributions and migration patterns.The comments of two anonymous reviewers are gratefully acknowledged. 相似文献
24.
用最小绝对偏差方法(LAD)估计极值分布参数的探讨 总被引:2,自引:3,他引:2
数理统计问题中的最小绝对偏差方法(Least Absolute Deviation)由于具有良好的稳健性,近年来备受重视。本文所研究的是如何将最小绝对偏差法及非线性回归模型相结合,应用于极值分布的参数估计,并与经典的参数估计法相比较。通过对徐州市降雨量数据的研究表明,改进后的参数估计法不仅提高了模型拟和的精确度,而且有良好的稳定性,可以推广到相关气象要素的预测、预报研究中。其中,将LAD法运用于极值分布模型是一个新的尝试。 相似文献
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The study assessed changes in the rainfall regime in Nigeria between 1961 and 2004 in terms of (a) absolute seasonality—the
length of dry and wet season; (b) relative seasonality—rainfall contrast during the year; (c) number of rainfall maxima and
minima; and (d) timing of rainfall maxima and minima. Trends in the mean monthly surface locations of the Inter-tropical Discontinuity
(ITD) were also examined as a prominent factor of the rainfall regime. Changes in the regime were examined over four time
slices: 1961–1971, 1972–1982, 1983–1993 and 1994–2004. The results show that, in the area of single rainfall maximum regime,
the length of the wet season has increased from 4 months (in 1961–1971) to 5 months (since 1972–1982). The rainfall relative
seasonality has consistently been ‘most rain in 3 months or less’. The rainfall maxima still indicate single rainfall maximum
but shift in the peak from August to July. Rainfall during the months of June to September appears to have witnessed declining
trends over the first three time slices. The last time slice however indicates trends towards a wetter condition. For the
area of double maxima rainfall regime, the length of the wet season has consistently been 8 months. The rainfall relative
seasonality has consistently been ‘rather seasonal with a short drier season’. The rainfall maxima and minima still indicate
double rainfall maxima with August as the month of the minimum but shift in the primary peak from July to September. The northward
latitudinal distance of the surface location of the ITD from the equator indicates significant upward trends during the months
of May to September only and for a period of 1983–2000. The trend results of the ITD appears to account for most of the observed
changes in the rainfall regime in Nigeria. 相似文献
27.
IntroductionIn1977,Sheriff(1977)provedthedetectiftglimitthatwasdefinedasminimumthicknessofthereflectionthinbedtobel/30wavelength.Applyingthesingularitydetectionprinciplewithwavelettransforminthispaper,weanalyzethereflectionseismicsignalsofthethinbed... 相似文献
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文凡 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2000,30(4)
基于 L onguet- Higgins线性海浪模型 ,在二维情况下导出海浪波面极大值处水质点水平加速度分布律 ,其分布遵从正态分布。在分布中引入新的谱宽度参量 [(m2 m4 - m23 ) / m2 m4 ]12 。以Neumann谱为模式计算波面极大值处质点加速度分布。 相似文献
29.
A statistical distribution of the maxima of a random function in two space variables is suggested to fit with stereo observations of the sea surface. The presented distribution is a complicated mix of Gaussian, Rayleighian and Maxwellian distributions and determined by three parameters of the directional spectrum, According to the changes of the three parameters it may approach the above three distributions respectively in special cases so that it has more probability of fitting stereo data better In addition, the fact that these parameters can be directly estimated from observed data is briefly in the paper. 相似文献
30.
正1 Introduction Many of the stratified lakes are characterized by the presence of large populations of cryptomonads in their chemocline zones(Reynolds,1992;Gervais et al,2003;Pedro's-Alio'et al.,1995).These populations are adapted to low light intensity and high sulfide concentration;they have a mixotrophic ability and form the so-called"deep chlorophyll maxima"(Gervais,1998;Marsha"and Laybourn-Parry,2002).A similar Cryptomonas sp. 相似文献