The influences of the Southern and North Atlantic Oscillations on climatic surface variables in Turkey     

M. aatay Karabrk  Ercan Kahya  Mehmet Karaca 《水文研究》2005,19(6):1185-1211

In this study, Turkish climatic variables (precipitation, stream flow and maximum and minimum temperatures) were first analysed in association with both the Southern Oscillation (SO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The relationships between Turkish maximum and minimum monthly temperatures and the extreme phases of the SO (El Niño and La Niña events) were examined. The results of this analysis showed that relationships between Turkish monthly maximum temperatures and El Niño and La Niña contain some complexity still to be identified, because both events produce a signal indicating a correspondence with cold anomalies in the aggregate composites. A relationship between turkish minimum temperatures and El Niño was detected in western Anatolia, whereas there was no significant and consistent signal associated with La Niña. Moreover a series of cross‐correlation analyses was carried out to demonstrate the teleconnections between the climatic variables and both the NAO and SO. The NAO during winter was found to influence precipitation and stream‐flow patterns. In contrast temperature patterns appeared to be less sensitive to the NAO. Furthermore, lag‐correlation results indicated a prediction potential for both precipitation and stream‐flow variables in connection with the NAO. Simultaneous and time‐lag correlations between the climatic variables and the SO index, in general, indicated weaker relationships in comparison with those for the NAO. These analyses also showed that the influences of the SO on Turkish temperature data are negligible. The outcomes were presented in conjunction with an explanation regarding physical mechanisms behind the implied teleconnections. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Spatial and temporal seasonal trends in coastal upwelling off Northwest Africa, 1981–2012     

《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2014

Seasonal coastal upwelling was analyzed along the NW African coastline (11–35°N) from 1981 to 2012. Upwelling magnitudes are calculated by wind speed indices, sea-surface temperature indices and inferred from meteorological station, sea-surface height and vertical water column transport data. A permanent annual upwelling regime is documented across 21–35°N and a seasonal regime across 12–19°N, in accordance with the climatology of previous studies. Upwelling regions were split into three zones: (1) the Mauritania–Senegalese upwelling zone (12–19°N), (2) the strong permanent annual upwelling zone (21–26°N) and (3) the weak permanent upwelling zone (26–35°N). We find compelling evidence in our various indices for the Bakun upwelling intensification hypothesis due to a significant coastal summer wind speed increase, resulting in an increase in upwelling-favorable wind speeds north of 20°N and an increase in downwelling-favorable winds south of 20°N. The North Atlantic Oscillation plays a leading role in modifying interannual variability during the other seasons (autumn–spring), with its influence dominating in winter. The East Atlantic pattern shows a strong correlation with upwelling during spring, while El Niño Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation teleconnections were not found. A disagreement between observationally-based wind speed products and reanalysis-derived data is explored. A modification to the Bakun upwelling intensification hypothesis for NW Africa is presented, which accounts for the latitudinal divide in summer wind regimes.  相似文献   

A new North Atlantic Oscillation index and its variability   总被引：31，自引：4，他引：27  

LI Jianping  Julian X.L.WANG 《大气科学进展》2003,20(5):661-676

A new North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, the NAOI, is defined as the differences of normalized sea level pressures regionally zonal-averaged over a broad range of longitudes 80°W-30°E. A comprehensive comparison of six NAO indices indicates that the new NAOI provides a more faithful representation of the spatial-temporal variability associated with the NAO on all timescales. A very high signal-to-noise ratio for the NAOI exists for all seasons, and the life cycle represented by the NAOI describes well the seasonal migration for action centers of the NAO. The NAOI captures a larger fraction of the variance of sea level pressure over the North Atlantic sector (20°-90°N, 80°W-30°E), on average 10% more than any other NAO index. There are quite different relationships between the NAOI and surface air temperature during winter and summer. A novel feature, however, is that the NAOI is significantly negative correlated with surface air temperature over the North Atlantic Ocean between 10°-25°N and  相似文献   

近67a影响山东台风频数的变化特征及其与若干气候因子的关系   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

高晓梅  江静  刘畅  马守强 《气象科学》2018,38(6):749-758

利用1949—2015年台风年鉴资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、NOAA资料等对近67 a影响山东的台风频数特征及其与相关气候因子的关系进行了分析。结果表明:(1)影响山东的6类台风中沿海北上类最多,登陆填塞类最少。8月和8月上旬是主要月份和旬份。台风年代际变化明显,并存在显著的26 a年代际尺度和5 a年际尺度的周期变化。(2)台风频数与同年份的东亚槽位置、亚洲区极涡面积指数分别呈显著的负、正相关关系。Ni1o3. 4区海温对台风频数存在超前的显著负相关,超前影响分别在1、2、3、4月。台风频数与冬季北大西洋涛动(NAO)指数、太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)指数分别存在显著的正、负相关关系。春、夏、秋季和年PDO冷位相时台风频数偏多,PDO暖位相时台风频数偏少,这与西太平洋副热带高压和低层水汽条件关系密切。(3)冷、暖位相年台风频数与太平洋海温分别存在显著的相关区,特别是冬季暖位相时赤道中东太平洋显著负相关区域较大。年PDO冷位相与夏季的显著相关区较相似,暖位相与秋季相似。(4)太平洋海温与台风频数相关性较好的海域主要有3个关键区:赤道中东太平洋、北太平洋中部和西太平洋暖池。其中赤道中东太平洋的的显著性表现在冬季,北太平洋中部的显著性表现在年、春、夏、秋季,西太平洋暖池的显著性表现在夏、秋季。  相似文献   

Comparative analysis of statistical tools to identify recruitment-environment relationships and forecast recruitment strength   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Megrey  Bernard A.; Lee  Yong-Woo; Macklin  S. Allen 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2005,62(7):1256-1269

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Regional variation in distribution pattern, population structure and growth rates of Meganyctiphanes norvegica and Thysanoessa longicaudata in the Irminger Sea, North Atlantic     

R.A. Saunders  A. Ingvarsdttir  J. Rasmussen  S.J. Hay  A.S. Brierley 《Progress in Oceanography》2007,72(4):313-342

Euphausiids are a key component of the northern North Atlantic marine ecosystem and Meganyctiphanes norvegica and Thysanoessa longicaudata are dominant both numerically and in terms of biomass. The Irminger Sea is remote and experiences often-hostile weather conditions. Consequently, few studies have been conducted there, and detailed information on the seasonal distribution, abundance and growth of euphausiids is limited. Here we explore patterns of abundance and spatial and temporal variation in length–frequency distribution in order to determine regional growth rates for both species in the Irminger Basin. Regional composite length–frequency distributions for spring, summer and winter were devised by aggregating discrete net haul data according to the results of a multivariate cluster analysis of length conducted on spring and summer net sample data. Three biologically distinct regions within the Irminger basin were apparent (Central Irminger Sea, Northern Irminger Sea and East of Greenland Shelf). These regions corresponded broadly with distinct physical zones within the basin. Modes in the composite length–frequency distributions were determined by fitting multiple normal distributions, and regional differences in growth were investigated by tracking modes between seasons. The results provide some evidence for regional variability in growth and population dynamics. The population structure and growth of M. norvegica was similar in the open ocean regions of the Northern and Central Irminger Basin, but different in the region around the East Greenland Shelf. There was a distinct absence of larger individuals (+I-group) in the open ocean regions compared to East Greenland Coast region, and growth rates were marginally higher. A similar pattern in population structure was also observed for T. longicaudata. Variability in growth and abundance are discussed in relation to prevailing environmental characteristics such as temperature and food availability.  相似文献   

中国冬季气温季节内变率特征及环流分析     

申红艳  温婷婷  封国林  李红梅  乔少博  段丽君 《气象》2021,(3):327-336

利用中国冬季逐日平均气温均方差作为气温季节内变率指标,分析其变化特征并探讨引起季节内变率异常的环流背景。结果表明,中国冬季气温季节内变率总体呈减弱趋势,对气候增暖趋势响应明显,其年代际变化和东亚冬季风年代际转折时间相吻合。当气温季节内变率异常偏强时,冬季平均环流场上呈类似准正压结构,平流层极涡偏弱,对流层中高纬呈类似斯堪的纳维亚遥相关型分布,低层西伯利亚高压偏强,北大西洋涛动(NAO)为负位相;NAO同我国东部气温变率联系密切,进一步分析揭示出NAO是通过影响西伯利亚高压的高频变化来作用于气温季节内变率。最后,通过提取天气—次季节—季节不同时间尺度上的大气环流内部变率,发现在各个尺度上,气温季节内变率均受西伯利亚高压和东亚冷涡的调控作用;尤其在天气尺度上,阿留申低压频繁波动及上游欧洲脊的稳定少动与气温变率有密切联系,季节尺度上欧亚阻塞高压和鄂霍次克海阻塞高压异常对气温变率有显著影响。  相似文献   

北极涛动与北大西洋涛动的低频变化特征     

胡跃文  杨小怡 《气象科学》2007,27(3):316-322

本文主要利用小波分析方法研究北极涛动(AO)和北大西洋涛动(NAO)的低频变化和周期特征。结果表明:AO在1965年以前有准两年周期振荡,1975年后转为准8 a周期和准16 a周期;NAO也存在相似的周期转变,但其准8 a周期出现在60年代末到1976年前后,并且没有明显的准16 a周期;AO和NAO准8 a周期的交叉小波能谱在1975年前后达到极大值,这与北半球气候突变时间基本吻合。另外,AO和NAO模态的北大西洋中心在1975年后表现出不同程度的东移,AO中心移到地中海地区,且太平洋中心明显增强,使其纬向对称的环形模态较突变前更显著。  相似文献   

1951—2016年中亚努尔苏丹与乌鲁木齐寒潮过程频数变化及其主要影响因子对比分析   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

段均泽  毛炜峄  黄迤静  陈静  迪丽努尔·托列吾别克  姚俊强  沈永平 《冰川冻土》2021,43(4):1060-1072

利用1951—2016年努尔苏丹和乌鲁木齐的逐日最低气温资料, 以当年7月到翌年6月为统计年, 对比分析了中亚地区的努尔苏丹与乌鲁木齐的寒潮、 强寒潮和超强寒潮过程频数气候变化特征, 并初步分析了冬季北极涛动（AO）、 北大西洋涛动（NAO）与中亚两个城市同期寒潮活动关系。结果显示： 努尔苏丹的年平均寒潮过程频数（15.7次·a^-1）是乌鲁木齐（4.1次·a^-1）的3.88倍, 强寒潮和超强寒潮过程频数分别是乌鲁木齐的5.91倍和7.55倍; 努尔苏丹的超强寒潮过程频数月分布呈单峰型, 1月最多, 乌鲁木齐的呈双峰型, 峰值分别出现在11月和4月。努尔苏丹的寒潮过程持续日数普遍比乌鲁木齐短。65 a来, 努尔苏丹与乌鲁木齐的春季寒潮过程频数之间的相关关系显著。努尔苏丹和乌鲁木齐的年寒潮过程频数的线性递减率分别为-0.111次·（10a）^-1和-0.445次·（10a）^-1; 两城市秋、 冬、 春季寒潮、 强寒潮和超强寒潮过程频数线性趋势大多以递减为主, 但是努尔苏丹冬季和乌鲁木齐春季的超强寒潮过程频数均呈递增趋势。努尔苏丹的年超强寒潮过程频数在近5 a最多。努尔苏丹的年寒潮过程频数序列有31 a、 20 a左右的显著周期, 乌鲁木齐的年寒潮过程频数序列有39 a、 8 a左右显著周期。北大西洋涛动（NAO）与努尔苏丹和乌鲁木齐寒潮过程的关联程度比北极涛动（AO）与它们之间的关联程度更为密切; 努尔苏丹的寒潮过程频数受NAO以及AO的影响程度更深。  相似文献   

Evaluation of the Forecast Performance for North Atlantic Oscillation Onset     

Guokun DAI  Mu MU  Zhina JIANG 《大气科学进展》2019,(7):753-765

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