Modelling and forecasting long-term dynamics of Western Baltic macrobenthic fauna in relation to climate signals and environmental change   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Joachim Grger  Heye Rumohr 《Journal of Sea Research》2006,55(4):266-277

Long-term macrobenthos data from Kiel Bight in the Western Baltic collected between 1968 and 2000 have been correlated with the winter NAO index (North Atlantic Oscillation Index) and other environmental data such as temperature, salinity and oxygen content in the bottom water in order to detect systematic patterns related to so far unexplained abiotic signals in the dynamics of zoobenthic species assemblages. The benthos data come from a cluster of five stations (Süderfahrt/ Millionenviertel) in Kiel Bay. Our investigations concentrated on the macrobenthic dynamics with a focus on the number of species m^− 2 (species richness). Using logarithms and the time series analysis approach of Box/Jenkins (ARIMA modelling, transfer function modelling) it was shown that species richness was strongly influenced by the winter NAO (adjusted for a linear time trend within the 1968-2000 period) and salinity (with a shift/lag of four years). Bootstrapping experiments (i.e. sampling from the error process) and analysis of prediction power (by means of the one- or more-years leaving-out method) showed that the parameter estimates behaved in a stable way, leading to a relatively robust model.  相似文献   

Zooplankton variability and climatic anomalies from 1994 to 2001 in the Balearic Sea (Western Mediterranean)     

Fernandez de Puelles  M. Luz; Valencia  Joaquin; Vicente  Laura 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2004,61(4):492-500

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8000 years of North Atlantic storminess reconstructed from a Scottish peat record: implications for Holocene atmospheric circulation patterns in Western Europe     

《第四纪科学杂志》2017,32(8):1075-1084

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2016与1998年春季北大西洋海表温度异常的差异及成因     

薛文璟  余锦华  陈林 《热带海洋学报》2020,39(3):19-30

利用再分析资料以及混合层海温诊断方程, 研究1997—1998与2015—2016年超级厄尔尼诺次年北大西洋海表温度异常(sea surface temperature anomalies, SSTA)的差异及成因。结果显示, 北大西洋SSTA在1998年春季呈明显正负正三极型式分布, 而在2016年呈弱的负正负型态。诊断热带北大西洋SSTA的影响因素表明, 1998年春季暖SSTA除了之前研究强调的海洋表面向大气的潜热输送异常减少, 以及吸收太阳辐射的增加外, 海洋动力过程即Ekman纬向漂流也起着重要的作用。热力过程与厄尔尼诺峰值后出现的北大西洋涛动(North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO)负位相有关, 其可引起亚速尔高压减弱, 产生西南风异常, 通过风-蒸发-海表温度(sea surface temperature, SST)反馈机制使热带北大西洋蒸发减弱, 海表增暖, 沃克环流下沉支的东移对这一增暖也有贡献。与1997—1998厄尔尼诺事件不同, 2015—2016厄尔尼诺事件没有强迫出负位相NAO, 而是出现弱NAO正位相, 热带北大西洋为弱的东风异常, 使海表发生一定的冷却, 形成2016春季北大西洋SSTA与1998年的明显差异。  相似文献   

An Overview of Paleo-AO/NAO Studies     

Liang Wengui  Wen Xinyu 《地球科学进展》2016,31(11):1137-1150

The discovery of decadal variability of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the introduction of Arctic oscillation (AO) concept have initiated a series of paleo-AO/NAO related studies since the mid-to-late 1990s. The progress and new findings of paleo-AO/NAO works after that time were comprehensively reviewed. The new results from the observations and modelings at four key timescales were summarized in detail: ①the reconstructions of the AO/NAO annual index over the past millennium; ②the debate on AO/NAO’s trend since early Holocene; ③the weakening of AO/NAO’s amplitude during the Last Glacial Maximum; and ④the anomalous positive phase of AO/NAO during the Last Interglacial. In addition, the possible mechanism for different timescales of AO/NAO is also summarized. Furthermore, the distinction between AO/NAO’ was mean state and amplitude, which were not explicitly separated in previous studies, were comprehensively discussed. Considering the current uncertainties related to paleo-AO/NAO studies, we encourage the community to search for more proxies having longer-than-10,000-year length with annual resolution around AO/NAO highly correlated regions. Another, we encourage long-term transient modeling on AO/NAO can be performed in order to improve our understanding of the dynamics and interaction between AO/NAO’s high-frequency variability and the climatological background, so as to further improve AO/NAO’s predictability on global warming context.  相似文献   

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Europe Blocking and Their Impacts on Extreme Snowstorms: A Review     

Yao Yao  Luo Dehai 《地球科学进展》2016,31(6):581-594

Large-scale, low frequency modes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO)and blocking, have an important modulation on the northern hemisphere weather and climate. In this paper, the physical mechanism studies on inter-decadal and decadal variability of NAO and blocking were summarized. The relationship between NAO regime transitions and the interannual variability of NAO in winter during was examined by using a statistical approach. The time-space relationship between NAO and European blocking were discussed. Based on two extreme cold and snowstorm events, the impacts on local weather especially the extreme events within the life cycle (two weeks) of the NAO and blocking were further examined. It was found that the frequently occurrence of the Eurasian extreme snowstorm was closely related to the special combination of NAO and blocking regime. In addition, the development of theoretical modes for NAO and blocking was discussed and issues that remain to be solved were proposed.  相似文献   

基于PMIP2气候模式模拟的中全新世北大西洋涛动   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张肖剑  靳立亚  俞飞  王志远 《海洋学报》2010,32(4):41-50

根据PMIP2中的4个海气耦合模式对中全新世气候的模拟结果,利用现代和中全新世两个时间段的冬季海平面气压场(SLP),分析了北大西洋海平面气压的变化情况并计算了这两个时间段的北大西洋涛动(NAO)指数。结果表明,中全新世亚速尔高压加强,冰岛低压加深,南北气压差增加,NAO强度显著增强。对中全新世北大西洋地区SLP进行经验正交函数(EOF)分析显示,4个模式均能捕捉到了NAO的主要结构。中全新世NAO处于正位相的时间较现代提高了10%~30%,其中MIROC3.2提高了29.3%;虽然NAO指数振幅变化不大,但还是能显示中全新世NAO显著强于现代,这与地质资料恢复的结果相一致。对NAO指数的多窗谱分析显示,现代NAO指数存在3~5 a的准周期变化,中全新世NAO指数存在3 a的准周期变化。NAO对中全新世亚洲地区冬季增温有重要影响。北大西洋地区中纬度海面温度(SST)的增温可能是导致中全新世NAO强度增强的一个重要因素。  相似文献   

European precipitation connections with large-scale mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) fields     

David Lavers  Christel Prudhomme 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2):310-327

Abstract

To advance understanding of hydroclimatological processes, this paper links spatiotemporal variability in gridded European precipitation and large-scale mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) time series (1957–2002) using monthly concurrent correlation. Strong negative (positive) correlation near Iceland and (the Azores) is apparent for precipitation in northwest Europe, confirming a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) association. An opposing pattern is found for southwest Europe, and the Mediterranean in winter. In the lee of mountains, MSLP correlation is lower reflecting reduced influence of westerlies on precipitation generation. Importantly, European precipitation is shown to be controlled by physically interpretable climate patterns that change in extent and position from month to month. In spring, MSLP–precipitation correlation patterns move and shrink, reaching a minimum in summer, before expanding in the autumn, and forming an NAO-like dipole in winter. These space–time shifts in correlation regions explain why fixed-point NAO indices have limited ability to resolve precipitation for some European locations and seasons.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor A. Montanari

Citation Lavers, D., Prudhomme, C., and Hannah, D.M., 2013. European precipitation connections with large-scale mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) fields. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (2), 310–327.  相似文献   

近50年新疆气温和降水量变化及其与NAO指数的交叉小波谱分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张延伟  魏文寿  姜逢清  刘明哲  王雯雯  白磊  韩茜  洪雯  陆恒  李雪梅 《高原气象》2012,31(4):974-982

利用1961—2008年的逐日降水和气温资料,采用线性趋势、小波功率谱和交叉小波谱等方法分析了新疆降水和气温的变化,以及与北大西洋涛动(NAO)变化之间的关系。结果表明,近50年新疆存在降水增多和气温上升的趋势,有暖湿化现象,这与西北地区由暖干趋于暖湿的结论相一致。同时,新疆平均年降水量与NAO存在准2年和准6年周期,夏季降水量与NAO存在准3年和准5年周期,冬季降水量与NAO存在准3年周期。新疆年均气温与NAO存在准3年周期,夏季气温与NAO存在准3年周期,冬季气温与NAO存在准3年和准8年周期。新疆全年、冬季和夏季的降水与NAO的周期中,通过显著性检验的高值正相关大多集中在20世纪80年代;而气温与NAO的周期中,通过显著性检验的高值正相关也大多集中在80年代。  相似文献   

北大西洋涛动位相转换的数值研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李忠燕  罗德海 《大气科学》2012,36(2):374-384

借助一个非线性准地转正压模型,模拟了基本西风气流的强弱、不同空间分布的天气尺度扰动涡对北大西洋涛动(NAO)位相转换的作用,以及大尺度双波地形对其的影响.通过一系列的对比试验发现,适当弱的基本西风气流有利于下游系统西退使NAO由正(负)位相转换为负(正)位相;振幅强、活动范围大的天气尺度扰动波是NAO由负位相转换为正位...  相似文献