利用“p100/q100”律对胶东地区金矿资源潜力估计   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

申维 《地学前缘》2001,8(4):463-466

利用幂函数分布在高端截尾 (uppertruncation)条件下具有分形性质 ,即尺度不变的特征 ,证明了统计量q具有分形性质 ,即它与尺度参数k无关。在总体的随机变量X服从幂函数分布条件下 ,从“p10 0 /q10 0”律的概率形式推出“p10 0 /q10 0”律的分形形式 ;“80 /2 0”律是“p10 0 /q10 0”律的一种特殊分形形式。当a =1.16,p =0 .2 0时 ,q =0 .80 ;将“p10 0 /q10 0”律应用于山东胶东地区金矿床储量数据 ,得到了该地区大中小型金矿床的“p10 0 /q10 0”律表达式和相应的百分数。比较理论计算的结果与样本观察值计算的结果大小 ,可预测该地区可能存在 1个或 2个大型金矿床。  相似文献   

Statistical Characteristics of Xenoliths in the Antioch Kimberlite Pipe,Marshall County,Northeastern Kansas     

Kotov  Sergey  Berendsen  Pieter 《Natural Resources Research》2002,11(4):289-297

Geometrical characteristics of xenoliths in the Antioch kimberlite pipe have been considered in statistical terms. A method of conversion of 2D intersections to 3D dimensions was used. It has been shown that the Rosin-Rammler distribution of mass leads to the Weibull distribution of sizes, whereas a fractal distribution of sizes can be expressed as the Pareto distribution. Lognormal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions have been tested as model distributions. The Pareto distribution could be the most appropriate model for the distribution of xenoliths. This conclusion is in agreement with the general concept that the xenoliths formed as a result of an underground explosion without additional breakage occurring during magma transport. The final distribution may be shifted from the initial model as a result of processes of redistribution and sorting of xenoliths in liquid-crystalline flows.  相似文献   

Graphical characterisation of probability distribution tails     

K. Chaouche  P. Hubert  G. Lang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2002,16(5):342-357

 The purpose of this paper is to present a graphical method to characterise the nature of a distribution (exponential or algebraic). In the algebraic case, this statistical tool provides an estimation procedure of the parameter characterising the decrease of the survival function. The realizations of the random variable under study being available in the form of time series, this method is based on the relationship between the duration of exceeding an intensity threshold and the accumulation of the realizations of the random variable during this length of time. The behaviour of the duration-accumulation graphs (when the threshold of reference increases indefinitely) results in a function, the limit of which only depends on the parameter characterising the algebraic decrease of the probability distribution. The estimate of this parameter is biased but can be corrected effectively by numerical methods. We applied this method to two rainfall series differing by their geographical origin (Dédougou in Burkina Faso and a station on the Island of La Réunion) and their time step (respectively 1 day and 76 seconds). For both of them, the behaviour of tail distributions is shown to be algebraic and the values of the parameter characterizing the algebraic decrease of the probability distribution of the two series are very close. This would tend to justify the assumption of a multifractal nature for these series. This work was achieved as part of the National Programme of Research in Hydrology of the INSU (project 99 PNRH 27). The authors are grateful to A. Barcello for providing them the data of the Island of La Réunion Island.  相似文献   

A chain causality model for oil and gas accumulation     

Yinhe Liu  Zhijun Jin 《Natural Resources Research》1997,6(4):257-261

The formation of oil and gas reservoirs is the result of infinitesimal amounts of hydrocarbons that accumulate in sedimentary basins through a process of chain reactions, which occur one step at a time. The reactions can be divided into a set of interrelated static factors, which can be divided into a subset of interrelated factors. The chain reactions define a genetic model that has a layered structure with the property of forward chaining. It is an attempt to portray the process of formation of oil and gas reservoirs. By using this model in petroleum exploration, potential pool-size distributions can be evaluated.  相似文献   

Single station and regional analysis of daily rainfall extremes     

D. L. Fitzgerald 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1989,3(4):281-292

A peaks over threshold (POT) method of analysing daily rainfall values is developed using a Poisson process of occurrences and a generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) for the exceedances. The parameters of the GPD are estimated by the method of probability weighted moments (PWM) and a method of combining the individual estimates to define a regional curve is proposed.  相似文献   

Statistical characterization of temporal structure of storms     

G. Salvadori  C. De Michele 《Advances in water resources》2006

The authors present a statistical procedure to estimate the probability distributions of storm characteristics. The approach uses recent advances in stochastic hydrological modeling. The temporal dynamics of rainfall are modeled via a reward alternating renewal process that describes wet and dry phases of storms. In particular, the wet phase is modeled as a rectangular pulse process with dependent random duration and intensity; the global dependence structure is described using multidimensional copulas. The marginal distributions are described by Generalized Pareto laws. The authors derive both the storm volume statistics and the rainfall volume distribution within a fixed temporal window preceding a storm. Based on these results, they calculate the antecedent moisture conditions. The paper includes a thorough discussion of the validity of the assumptions and approximations introduced, and an application to actual rainfall data. The models presented here have important implications for improved design procedures of water resources and hydrologic systems.  相似文献   

极值波高建模中不确定性的模糊量化方法     

ZHANG Yi  CAO Yingyi 《海洋学报(英文版)》2015,34(3):90-98

A non-traditional fuzzy quantification method is presented in the modeling of an extreme significant wave height. First, a set of parametric models are selected to fit time series data for the significant wave height and the extrapolation for extremes are obtained based on high quantile estimations. The quality of these results is compared and discussed. Then, the proposed fuzzy model, which combines Poisson process and generalized Pareto distribution(GPD) model, is applied to characterizing the wave extremes in the time series data. The estimations for a long-term return value are considered as time-varying as a threshold is regarded as non-stationary. The estimated intervals coupled with the fuzzy theory are then introduced to construct the probability bounds for the return values. This nontraditional model is analyzed in comparison with the traditional model in the degree of conservatism for the long-term estimate. The impact on the fuzzy bounds of extreme estimations from the non stationary effect in the proposed model is also investigated.  相似文献   

Approximating the Distribution of Pareto Sums     

I. V. Zaliapin  Y. Y. Kagan  F. P. Schoenberg 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2005,162(6-7):1187-1228

Heavy tailed random variables (rvs) have proven to be an essential element in modeling a wide variety of natural and human-induced processes, and the sums of heavy tailed rvs represent a particularly important construction in such models. Oriented toward both geophysical and statistical audiences, this paper discusses the appearance of the Pareto law in seismology and addresses the problem of the statistical approximation for the sums of independent rvs with common Pareto distribution F(x)=1 – x^– for 1/2 < < 2. Such variables have infinite second moment which prevents one from using the Central Limit Theorem to solve the problem. This paper presents five approximation techniques for the Pareto sums and discusses their respective accuracy. The main focus is on the median and the upper and lower quantiles of the sums distribution. Two of the proposed approximations are based on the Generalized Central Limit Theorem, which establishes the general limit for the sums of independent identically distributed rvs in terms of stable distributions; these approximations work well for large numbers of summands. Another approximation, which replaces the sum with its maximal summand, has less than 10% relative error for the upper quantiles when < 1. A more elaborate approach considers the two largest observations separately from the rest of the observations, and yields a relative error under 1% for the upper quantiles and less than 5% for the median. The last approximation is specially tailored for the lower quantiles, and involves reducing the non-Gaussian problem to its Gaussian equivalent; it too yields errors less than 1%. Approximation of the observed cumulative seismic moment in California illustrates developed methods.  相似文献   

Designing spatially cohesive nature reserves with backup coverage     

Eric Delmelle  Michael R. Desjardins  Jing Deng 《International journal of geographical information science》2017,31(12):2505-2523

Natural habitats continue to dwindle due to a variety of natural and human-induced stressors. In response, sufficient land must be set aside for conservation to preserve long-term biodiversity. In this paper, we propose a bi-objective optimization model to form spatially cohesive nature reserves by minimizing the distance from habitat patches to the center of their reserve, while simultaneously maximizing the ecological condition of the patches set aside for preservation. Our model can accommodate multiple reserves which, combined with a minimum separation distance requirement, enforces backup coverage to mitigate the possible effects of natural and anthropogenic stressors. The model fully capitalizes on GIS functionalities to extract information on spatial relationships and visualize optimization results. Given the complexity of the separation constraint, we propose a genetic algorithm (GA) and a two-phase heuristic where the GA solves the selection of the reserves, while a solver attempts to optimize the allocation of patches to the selected reserves. The behavior of our model and its sensitivity to the parameters are illustrated on a simulated data set, while its real-world problem-solving capabilities are demonstrated on a case study in New Hampshire. Our model provides an alternative modeling tool for conservation planning, particularly when backup reserves are desired.  相似文献   

基于广义帕累托分布的马尼拉海沟俯冲带地震危险性估计     

田建伟  刘哲  任鲁川 《地震》2017,37(1):158-165

选取马尼拉海沟俯冲带作为潜源区, 基于广义帕累托分布, 通过对一定时段内超过某一阈值的震级数据进行拟合, 建立该潜源区地震危险性估计模型, 估计强震重现水平和震级上限, 并对估计结果的不确定性进行了分析, 得到马尼拉海沟俯冲带震级上限为9.0级, 10 a、 50 a、 100 a、 200 a马尼拉海沟俯冲带的震级重现水平期望值分别为7.1级、 7.6级、 7.7级、 7.9级。  相似文献