冕宁县地震经济损失预测及社会经济影响分析     

张家涛  孙林松  蒋能强  秦启沛  杨建生 《高原地震》1993,(2)

本文根据冕宁县的社会经济调查资料和建筑物群体震害预测结果,对未来地震引起的经济损失进行了预测,并对地震后可能引起的社会经济影响作了初步分析。  相似文献   

华南及台湾地区地震活动度异常的研究     

郭文发  彭美凤 《华南地震》1993,13(2):43-49

应用谷继成引入的地震活动度S的概念及其计算公式,研究了18次台湾强震、11次华南地区中强震的震前S值随时间的变化。结果表明,震前S值出现低值异常的震例占86％。此外,还对华南及台湾地区六个区域的S值综合预报效能R值进行了计算,事实证明,在本区S值具有一定的预报能力.  相似文献   

1991年缅甸7.6级地震的中长期预报及有关问题讨论          下载免费PDF全文

钱兆霞  洪少峰 《地震工程学报》1993,15(3):57-62

本文介绍了1991年1月5日缅甸7.6级地震的中期预报概况。主要依据是地震空区,震前2年在空区边缘发生一次6.2级地震后一个月内迅速形成300km长的地震条带,以及对大区域7级地震形势的综合分析。本文还着重讨论了6.2级地震后所形成的地震条带与未来大震之间的关系。  相似文献   

南北地震带年最高震级序列的建模和预测     

赵卫明 《地震工程学报》1993,15(4):77-81

本文应用Ａ．Ｇ．Ｌｖａｋｈｎｅｎｋｏ提出的数据处理的分组方法的基本思想，以生物有机体演化的方法，给出了一种自动选择模型的最佳形式和参数，构造高阶自回归模型的方法，并用此方法对南北地震带年最高震级序列做了建模和预测，效果较好。利用上述方法，本文还对南北地震带未来５年最高震级作了预报。  相似文献   

台风路径实时数值预报的初步试验   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

王诗文  李健军 《应用气象学报》1994,5(4):462-469

根据国家气象中心建立的台风路径数值预报试验系统，引入了模型台风。模型台风是利用获得的场面参数构成的，然后再叠加到客观分析场上作为台风路径预报的初始场。引入模型台风后，无论是台风中心位置还是其流场、质量场与实际观测比较接近，且预报效果有一定提高。利用模型台风对1992年Eli（9205号）和Janis（9210号）台风进行了实时的预报试验。结果表明对这二个台风的移动趋势基本上能预报出来，预报的台风路径与实况进行了对比，并与气候持续预报作了比较，效果较好。  相似文献   

Seismic gaps and source zones of recent large earthquakes in coastal Peru     

James W. Dewey  William Spence 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1979,117(6):1148-1171

The earthquakes of central coastal Peru occur principally in two distinct zones of shallow earthquake activity that are inland of and parallel to the axis of the Peru Trench. The interface-thrust (IT) zone includes the great thrust-fault earthquakes of 17 October 1966 and 3 October 1974. The coastal-plate interior (CPI) zone includes the great earthquake of 31 May 1970, and is located about 50 km inland of and 30 km deeper than the interface thrust zone. The occurrence of a large earthquake in one zone may not relieve elastic strain in the adjoining zone, thus complicating the application of the seismic gap concept to central coastal Peru. However, recognition of two seismic zones may facilitate detection of seismicity precursory to a large earthquake in a given zone; removal of probable CPI-zone earthquakes from plots of seismicity prior to the 1974 main shock dramatically emphasizes the high seismic activity near the rupture zone of that earthquake in the five years preceding the main shock. Other conclusions on the seismicity of coastal Peru that affect the application of the seismic gap concept to this region are: (1) Aftershocks of the great earthquakes of 1966, 1970, and 1974 occurred in spatially separated clusters. Some clusters may represent distinct small source regions triggered by the main shock rather than delimiting the total extent of main-shock rupture. The uncertainty in the interpretation of aftershock clusters results in corresponding uncertainties in estimates of stress drop and estimates of the dimensions of the seismic gap that has been filled by a major earthquake. (2) Aftershocks of the great thrust-fault earthquakes of 1966 and 1974 generally did not extend seaward as far as the Peru Trench. (3) None of the three great earthquakes produced significant teleseismic activity in the following month in the source regions of the other two earthquakes. The earthquake hypocenters that form the basis of this study were relocated using station adjustments computed by the method of joint hypocenter determination.  相似文献   

地磁场结构对静止轨道≥2 MeV高能电子分布的影响          下载免费PDF全文

孙晓婧  林瑞淋  刘四清  师立勤  张效信  钟秋珍  罗冰显  龚建村  程永宏 《地球物理学报》1954,63(10):3604-3625

基于AE8电子辐射带模式和各地磁场模式,本文系统分析了地磁场模式、太阳风、地磁扰动、地磁轴指向对静止轨道≥2 MeV高能电子分布的影响以及静止轨道不同经度位置≥2 MeV高能电子分布的差异,并与GOES系列卫星实测结果进行了对比分析.结果表明,AE8+IGRF+T96模式所得静止轨道≥2 MeV高能电子分布结果优于AE8+IGRF+OPQ77模式或AE8+IGRF+T89模式结果,其大部分定性结果与GOES系列卫星观测结果较为一致,AE8+IGRF+T96模式所得静止轨道≥2 MeV高能电子分布与磁壳参量Lm、局地磁场B分别呈较好的负和正相关性.基于AE8+IGRF+T96模式得到在相同太阳风及地磁扰动条件下2010年每分钟静止轨道≥2 MeV高能电子通量分布结果,经分析得到：1年内每个时刻静止轨道上≥2 MeV高能电子通量最大值和最小值比值变化范围为2.50~7.51,变化主周期为1天,每天比值变化量都超过3;1年内静止轨道各经度位置每天内≥2 MeV高能电子通量最大值和最小值比值变化范围为2.98~6.00,比值随着时间和经度位置而变化;1年内同一天静止轨道各经度位置≥2 MeV高能电子日积分通量最大值出现在170°W附近,最小值出现在70°W附近,最大值与最小值的比值分布在1.86~2.13之间.以上所得静止轨道≥2 MeV高能电子分布变化主要来自Lm变化,B/B₀的影响小于5%,其中B₀为磁力线上磁场最小值.因此,在构建≥2 MeV高能电子分布模式时,需要考虑地磁场结构的影响,特别是Lm参数.  相似文献   

外辐射带区域新建地磁场经验模型的定量研究          下载免费PDF全文

王丽  杨晓超  张珅毅 《地球物理学报》1954,63(11):3944-3951

准确的磁场模型对于辐射带粒子环境研究至关重要.本文利用美国Van Allen Probes（VAP）在2012至2018年期间测量的磁场数据和GOES15在2011至2017年期间测量的磁场数据,定量地评估了三个较新的外磁场经验模型（TS05、TA15和TA16）对外辐射带区域（3~6.6R_E）磁场的描述性能.本文选择预测效率（Prediction Efficiency,PE）作为评估指标,定量分析各模型在不同空间范围（Lm值）、不同地磁活动水平（Kp）以及不同磁地方时（MLT）下的性能表现,并且计算了观测磁场与模型磁场的夹角θ,以评估模型的磁场方向预测能力.结果表明：PE随Lm值增大,随地磁扰动增强而下降;θ随Lm值增大,随地磁扰动增强而增大.在Lm=5~6.5R_E范围内,PE呈现晨昏不对称性,MLT=12-21时的PE值小于MLT=0-9时的值,说明三个磁场模型可以较好地描述晨侧磁场的强度,但它们并不能很好地反映下午至昏侧磁场的大小;在地球同步轨道附近（Lm~6.6R_E）,PE呈现昼夜不对称性,MLT=9-15时的PE值大于其他时区的值,说明三个磁场模型可以很好地反映昼侧磁场大小,但在夜侧可能存在较大的误差.θ在MLT=6-12时的值小于其他时区的值,呈现昼夜不对称性,说明三个磁场模型可以较好地描述昼侧磁力线的分布位型,但在夜侧存在较大的方向描述误差.在外辐射带3~6.5R_E内,TA16模型与VAP磁场观测数据最为接近,PE均大于0.7,θ均小于3°;在地球同步轨道高度（6.6R_E）,TS05模型与GOES15卫星磁场观测数据最为接近,PE约为0.75,θ约为7°.相关的研究结果可以为我国星载高能粒子探测器探测数据的在轨交叉定标、辐射带高能粒子动态模型研究和相关的磁层环境理论/应用研究提供地磁场模型选择方面的参考.  相似文献   

Kinetic tests comparison and interpretation for prediction of the Joutel tailings acid generation potential     

M.?BenzaazouaEmail author  B.?Bussière  A.-M.?Dagenais  M.?Archambault 《Environmental Geology》2004,46(8):1086-1101

Five sulfide mine tailings coming from the Joutel mine tailing ponds (Quebec, Canada) were tested by the humidity cell test (30 to 52 cycles duration) and the column test (11 to 12 cycles duration). The objectives of this study were twofold. First, there was the determination of the tailings acid generation potential for site reclamation. Second, there was the kinetic test comparison for understanding the tailings geochemical behavior under different test conditions. The samples used had a wide diversity in terms of acid-generation potential, particle size distribution, and parameters influencing reaction rates. Leachates produced remained at a near neutral pH for the duration of the tests. Evolution of the main elements involved in the dissolution processes demonstrated neutralization by carbonates as a response to the acid generated by sulfide oxidation. Depletion rates given by sulfates are higher for the humidity cell tests when compared to those obtained for the column tests. This is consistent with most studies to date, the humidity cell test being considered as more severe. However, by taking the ratio between cumulative elements coming from neutralization and the ones coming from oxidation, similar curves (named herein oxidation –neutralization curves) for all tests were obtained. These results show that overall geochemical behavior of the tailings is similar at near neutral pH for both types of tests. With this interpretation method, the acid-generation potential of the Joutel tailings were tested and compared to the static test results to constrain their uncertainty zone with regard to the studied tailings. The tailings geochemical behavior (carbonate dissolution response to sulfide oxidation) at near neutral pH condition appears slightly dependent of test conditions under certain hypothesis.  相似文献   

盐湖卤水体系的热力学模型及其应用Ⅱ:在 Li~+,Na~+,K~+,Mg~(2+)/Cl~-,SO_4~(2-)-H_2O          下载免费PDF全文

宋彭生  姚燕 《盐湖研究》2003,(4)

上一报告简要介绍了获得描述"盐湖卤水体系"Li+,Na+,K+,Mg2+ Cl-,SO2-4-H2O25℃热力学的全部Pitzer参数后,可将该模型用于卤水的热力学相关性质计算上。本报告着重介绍将该模型应用这一复杂的六元体系及其多组分次级体系25℃溶解度预测方面获得的结果。通过与实验测定值的对比,可以看出预测结果令人相当满意。  相似文献