Verification of the motion fields over Southeast Asia by the Florida State University (FSU) superensemble forecast     

Mastura Mahmud  Robert S. Ross 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2006,27(2):176-190

The Florida State University (FSU) multimodel superensemble forecast is evaluated against several other operational weather models for the Southeast Asia region. The superensemble technique has demonstrated its exceptional skills in forecasting precipitation, motion and mass fields compared to either individual global operational or ensemble mean forecasts. The motion field investigation for the season of 2001 reveals that the superensemble forecasts are closer to the observed data compared to the other global member operational models through its low systematic errors at the 850 hPa level. The FSU multimodel superensemble forecasts exhibit the lowest root mean square errors (RSMEs), the highest correlation against the best observed data and the lowest systematic errors compared to the other operational model members. These forecasts have the potential to provide better daily weather predictions over the Southeast Asia region, particularly during the early northeast monsoon that often causes heavy rainfall in the equatorial part of the Southeast Asia region.  相似文献   

A highlight of environmental and engineering geology in Fargo, North Dakota, USA     

Fred J. Anderson 《Environmental Geology》2006,49(7):1034-1042

Several unfavorable environmental and engineering geologic conditions exist in Fargo, North Dakota. Dominantly, the behavior of smectitic clays within the proglacial Lake Agassiz sediments of the Sherack and Brenna Formations creates subsoil instability beneath engineered structures in the Fargo area and slope instability within cutbank meanders of the Red River of the North. Unfavorable engineering geologic conditions encountered include: the elastic deformation of clayey glaciolacustrine soils, shrink-swell properties, inadequate bearing capacities, and mass movements. These conditions are responsible for structural failures including the Fargo Grain Elevator in 1955 and the Northern Pacific railroad grade. Bank failures along the Red River are common due to the inherent instability of Brenna Formation smectitic clays which are subject to plastic deformation in the subsurface, with resultant block failure of overlying Sherack Formation. Recent alluvial sediments due to typical fluvial action and the continued seasonal saturation of cutbank meanders within the floodplain also add to soil instability.  相似文献   

The Alcamayo and Cedrobamba catastrophic debris flow (January, March and April 2004) in Machupicchu area—Peru     

Raúl Carreño C.  Susana Kalafatovich C. 《Landslides》2006,3(1):79-83

A debris flow originating from the Alcamayo River on 10th April 2004 destroyed a part of the town of Aguas Calientes, resulting in 11 victims, and with serious affects to the tourist flow to the Machupicchu inka citadel. On the same day, as well as in January and March 2004, other similar phenomena occurred on the Cedrobamba and Leonchayoq Rivers, affecting the railway and an electrical tower, and disrupting the train service.  相似文献   

参数在线自调整模糊控制算法研究     

谌洪茂  贾宏伟  黄国辉 《华东地质学院学报》2006,29(3):277-282

针对间歇式热处理炉温度控制对象的特性要求,提出了参数在线自调整模糊控制与智能积分相结合的一种新型模糊控制方法。该方法的基本思想是在系统误差较大时,用参数在线自调整模糊控制算法以提高系统的响应;在系统误差较小时,加入智能积分作用以消除静态误差,智能积分作用是有选择的施加积分作用,克服了一般连续积分控制的缺点。论述了带智能积分参数在线自调整模糊控制器的设计及软件实现。并且通过在MATLAB软件上的仿真分析表明该方法的合理性及可行性。  相似文献   

地震地质灾害空间预警评估定量化方法研究初探     

叶建辉  谢志招  庄进耀 《福建地震》2006,(Z2)

建立“发育度”、“潜势度”、“危险度”、“危害度”等概念来描述地震地质灾害各影响因子、要素及可能的灾害危害程度,进而建立构成地震地质灾害层次分析的概念体系及地震地质灾害空间预警评估模型,将定性评估转化为定量评估进行初步研究。  相似文献   

中国近海及邻近海域高精度高分辨率海面高的确定   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

詹金刚  王勇  陆洋 《测绘信息与工程》2005,30(6):41-43

利用新的海潮模型(NAO99B)更为合理的共线方法和交叠平差技术,有效改善了ERM数据的径向轨道误差和时变海面高的影响,提高了浅海海域测高数据的测高精度。  相似文献   

基于预测的边缘检测方法   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

王晖  卢健 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2005,30(1):23-26

提出了一种基于预测的、有一定自适应性的边缘检测方法。介绍了其原理和算法实现过程。通过计算两个相邻像素的灰度值的均值、均方差和梯度来预测下一个像素的灰度值，比较预测值和真实值来判断下一个像素是否是边界点。通过与现有同类算法的比较，证明了该算法的优越性。  相似文献   

地震属性分析中水平切片的应用   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

国洪伟  陈勃  刘和芝  刘伟  张秀丽 《物探化探计算技术》2005,27(1):10-15

利用地震数据体中含有的丰富地质信息,可以有效地进行储层预测。层拉平水平切片地层学解释方法是先将地震剖面目的层段做层拉平处理,然后对切片顺地层层面追踪,勾绘出各种地层现象,并以地层学的观点加以解释。该方法在吉林探区扶新南部地区的应用中,对于识别河道的展布趋势取得了较好的效果,而且发现了多期叠置的扇型沉积体。另外,还可指导反演数据体的解释,做到对岩性体从定性到定量的描述。  相似文献   

一种基于核学习的储集层渗透率预测新方法   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

杨斌  匡立春  施泽进  孙中春 《物探化探计算技术》2005,27(2):119-123

基于核学习的支持向量机,是一种采用结构风险最小化原则代替传统经验风险最小化原则的新型统计学习方法,具有完备的理论基础。这里提出了核学习技术在储集层非均质特性描述中渗透率参数预测的新用途。在复杂地层中,基于支持向量机的智能和自适应模式识别能力而建立了常规测井多参数信息输入的渗透率预测模型,然后对实际油田储集层渗透率进行了预测。与常规线性回归模型预测结果相对比,所提出的方法更易于使用,很少受不确定因素的影响,并具有较强的信息整合能力以及更高的预测准确性和可信度。  相似文献   

现阶段地表油气化探技术难题与发展对策   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

姚俊梅 《物探与化探》2005,29(6):477-480,486

虽然地表油气化探方法技术已取得显著的应用效果, 但是由于成功率计算标准不同及方法技术本身的缺陷, 导致人们对方法的认同度较低。当前, 地表油气化探技术的发展, 一方面要以可靠的实验依据、严谨的数理推导及理论模型应对来自方法技术本身的挑战, 另一方面也要利用其快速、廉价和直接的优势, 加强与地质、遥感、非震物探等方法综合应用。  相似文献