基于湿位涡和积雪效率的降雪预报技术探讨     

姜有山  束宇  李力  刘冬晴 《气象科学》2017,37(5):659-665

本文对南京地区2015年的一次强降雪过程进行了湿位涡诊断分析,根据2008—2015年的57次强降雪个例归纳出了积雪效率与地面2 m气温的关系。结果表明:湿位涡正压项对降雪强度变化有较好的指示意义;结合湿位涡斜压项和地面气温可以较好地判断降雪落区,且强降雪落区和湿位涡斜压项的大值中心对应较好;积雪效率和地面2 m气温是分段函数关系,利用该统计关系及气温、降雪量的预报,可以作出积雪深度的预报。  相似文献   

湘西地区高架雷暴类冰雹的基本特征与关键预报因子     

石燕清  姚蓉  张丹丹  朱国光 《气象科技》2017,45(4):729-734

利用常规气象观测资料,对2005—2014年湖南省湘西州2—3月高架雷暴类冰雹的时空分布特征、天气系统配置及环境场要素特征等进行统计分析,探讨高架雷暴类冰雹发生发展的物理机制。结果表明,湘西早春时期的高架雷暴类冰雹南部地区多于中北部地区,具有一定的日变化。影响高架雷暴类冰雹的主要天气系统为高空槽、700hPa急流以及冷空气等。潜势预报指标包括:850hPa相对湿度大于等于92%,700hPa相对湿度大于等于60%,500hPa相对湿度小于等于48.5%;850hPa存在强的温度锋区,温差大于等于13℃/5个纬度;700hPa与500hPa的温差大于等于15℃;700hPa有风速大于等于16m·s~(-1)的西南急流,且850hPa与700hPa的垂直风切变大于等于19m·s~(-1);0℃层高度为3~4km,-20℃层高度为6~7km。  相似文献   

GIS based ecotourism potential assessment in Munessa Shashemene Concession Forest and its surrounding area,Ethiopia     

《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2017

This study aims to understand GIS based ecotourism potential of Munessa Shashemene Concession Forest and its surrounding area in Ethiopia. Landsat images from 2009/2010 and 2013 were used to drive baseline data including land cover, land use, stream and road. Elevation based agro-ecology and slope map were derived from SRTM DEM. Rapid wild animals survey, identifying the location of known historical, cultural and unique features were carried out in the filed with the help of key-informants. A suitability model was designed in GIS environment to assess the suitability of an area for tourism considering suitability factors such as land cover types, wild animal zone, unique features, topography and distance to a road. The result showed areas which are highly suitable, moderately suitable, marginally suitable, or unsuitable for tourism. The old giant, Podocarpus (Podocarpus falcatus) trees that serve as habitat of the endangered and endemic mountain nyala (Tragelaphus buxtoni), were identified as very high suitable areas for tourists. The highly suitable areas include forest area along the lake which is seasonally visited by mountain nyala and areas of plantation forest that are found adjacent to natural forest. These areas follow remnants of the natural forest and found along boundary between the mid-highland and the highland agro-ecologies. The agricultural land use types consisting of maize/haricot-bean and wheat/barley were evaluated as marginally suitable, nevertheless these could be considered as potential for agri-tourism. The study revealed that the concession area is found to be a suitable area with its huge potential for ecotourism development.  相似文献   

Importance of tropical cyclone heat potential for tropical cyclone intensity and intensification in the Western North Pacific     

Akiyoshi Wada  Norihisa Usui 《Journal of Oceanography》2007,63(3):427-447

Which is more important for tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and intensification, sea surface temperature (SST) or tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP)? Investigations using best-track TC central pressures, TRMM/TMI three-day mean SST data, and an estimated TCHP based on oceanic reanalysis data from 1998 to 2004, show that the central pressure is more closely related to TCHP accumulated from TC formation to its mature stages than to the accumulated SST and its duration. From an oceanic environmental viewpoint, a rapid deepening of TC central pressure occurs when TCHP is relatively high on a basin scale, while composite distributions of TCHP, vertical wind shear, lower tropospheric relative humidity, and wind speed occurring in cases of rapid intensification are different for each TC season. In order to explore the influence of TCHP on TC intensity and intensification, analyses using both oceanic reanalysis data and the results of numerical simulations based on an ocean general circulation model are performed for the cases of Typhoons Chaba (2004) and Songda (2004), which took similar tracks. The decrease in TCHP due to the passage of Chaba led to the suppression of Songda’s intensity at the mature stage, while Songda maintained its intensity for a relatively long time because induced near-inertial currents due to the passage of Chaba reproduced anticyclonic warm eddies appearing on the leftside of Chaba’s track before Songda passed by. This type of intensity-sustenance process caused by the passage of a preceding TC is often found in El Niño years. These results suggest that TCHP, but not SST, plays an important role in TC intensity and its intensification.  相似文献   

Inertial Instability of Arbitrarily Meandering Currents Governed by the Eccentrically Cyclogeostrophic Equation     

Hideo Kawai 《Journal of Oceanography》2003,59(2):163-172

Using natural coordinates, we have derived a criterion for the inertial instability of arbitrarily meandering currents. Such currents, governed by the eccentrically cyclogeostrophic equation, are adopted as the basic current field for the parcel method. We assume that any virtual displacement which is given to a water parcel moving in the basic field has no influence on this field. From the conservation of mechanical energy for a virtual displacement we derive an inertial instability frequency ω _m = [(f + 2u/r)Z]^0.5 for the eccentrically cyclogeostrophic current, where f is the Coriolis parameter, u the velocity (always positive), r the radius of curvature of a streamline (negative for an anticyclonic meander), and Z the vertical component of absolute vorticity. If ω _m ² is negative, the eccentrically cyclogeostrophic current becomes unstable. Although the conventional, centrifugal instability criterion, derived from the conservation of angular momentum in a circularly symmetric current field, has a certain meaning for a monopolar vortex, it contains a radial shear vorticity that is difficult to use in arbitrarily meandering currents. The new criterion ω _m ² contains a lateral shear vorticity that is applicable to arbitrarily meandering currents. Examining instabilities of concentric rings with radii of 50–100 km, we consider reasons why the anticyclonic supersolid rotation has been very much less frequently observed than the cyclonic supersolid rotation, despite a prediction of some common stability and a rapid change in radial velocity gradient for the former. Classifying eccentric streamlines into the large and small curvature-gradient types, we point out that the large-gradient curvature in anticyclonic rings is apt to be unstable. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

Seasonal dynamics of ciliated protozoa and their potential food in an eutrophic estuary (Bay of Biscay)   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Iaki Urrutxurtu  Emma Orive  Alejandro de la Sota 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2003,57(5-6):1169-1182

Ciliate assemblages, together with phytoplankton and heterotrophic nanoflagellates (HNF) as their potential food, have been surveyed monthly along the salinity gradient of the Nervión River estuary from March 2000 to March 2002. A total of 135 taxa of ciliate have been identified corresponding to 20 orders. Scuticociliates, naked choreotrichs and oligotrichs were the most abundant groups, distributed throughout a broad range of salinity. In addition to these groups, which were the dominant taxa in the middle estuary, tintinnids were characteristic of the ciliate assemblages of the outer estuary whereas in the innermost part naked choreotrichs and oligotrichs decreased in number, being substituted by sessilids, hymenostomatids, peniculids and cyrtophorids. Total ciliate concentrations were among the highest reported in the literature for other estuaries and coastal waters, frequently reaching 10⁵ cells l⁻¹. Meanwhile, tintinnid concentrations were comparable with those of other estuarine and coastal waters. Based on a principal component analysis (PCA) three main groups were delineated, with ciliates and their potential food sources as variables. One was that constituted by freshwater ciliate such as sessilids, hymenostomatids, cyrtophorids and pleurostomatids, which appear in low numbers in the innermost part, mainly in winter. Another group contained diatoms, chlorophytes, flagellates, euplotids and scuticociliates, all of them broadly distributed along the estuary and reaching their maximum density in late spring–summer. The third group was made up of taxa mainly appearing at the seaward end such as dinoflagellates, cyanobacteria, haptorids, tintinnids, naked choreotrichs and oligotrichs, which reached the highest densities in summer and early autumn. Ciliates do not seem to be food limited in the Nervión River estuary or much controlled by metazoan grazing.  相似文献   

Meso-scale available gravitational potential in the world oceans     

FENG Yang WANG Wei HUANG Ruixin 《海洋学报(英文版)》2006,25(5):1-13

The pitfalls of applying the commonly used definition of available gravitational potential energy （AGPE） to the world oceans are re-examined. It is proposed that such definition should apply to the meso-scale problems in the oceans, not the global scale. Based on WOA98 climatological data, the meso-scale AGPE in the world oceans is estimated. Unlike previous results by Oort et al. , the meso-scale AGPE is large wherever there is a strong horizontal density gradient. The distribution of meso-scale AGPE reveals the close connection between the baroclinic instability and the release of gravitational potential energy stored within the scale of Rossby deformation radius.  相似文献   

Modelling the selective effects of fishing on reproductive potential and population structure of squid     

Murphy  E. J.; Rodhouse  P. G.; Nolan  C. P. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》1994,51(3):299-313

  相似文献   

多障碍环境中基于增强式学习的势场优化和机器人路径规划   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

庄晓东  孟庆春  王汉萍  殷波 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2001,31(6):937-942

该文把增强式学习方法应用于多障碍环境中机器人路径规划 ,并将增强式学习和路径规划相结合 ,通过工作空间势场的自适应优化学习 ,实现机器人的全局路径规划 ,即得到从任何初始位置开始的最优路径。与传统的人工势场方法相比 ,该方法避免了势场中局部极小点所引起的陷阱区域 ,并且所得到的路径具有最优特性。计算机仿真实验结果表明 ,这种学习方法能有效的解决多障碍环境中的机器人路径规划问题  相似文献   

Episodic Mass Invasions of Juvenile Gadoids into the Wadden Sea and their Consequences for the Population Dynamics of Brown Shrimp (Crangon crangon)     

Rüdiger  Berghahn 《Marine Ecology》1996,17(1-3):251-260

Abstract. The brown shrimp Crangon crungon is considered to be a key species in the coastal waters of the North Sea and in particular in the Wadden Sea, since it occurs in masses and acts as both a highly efficient predator and important prey. The Wadden Sea is the nursery ground for brown shrimp. In 1990, a mass invasion of O-group whiting ( Merlangius merlangus ) reduced Crangon numbers to almost zero. Similar events, which had previously been reported in the 19th century, were observed in 1959 (whiting), 1970 (cod, Gadus morhua ), and 1983 (cod and whiting).
The 1990 invasion and the decline of the shrimp stock are documented on the basis of surveys that are compared with the years preceding and following. Consequences for the food web in the Wadden Sea and the reasons for the complete recovery of the shrimp stock in each case within one year after its collapse are discussed with regard to the Crangon crungon behaviour and reproductive potential. Sampling error and the impact of fisheries are also considered.  相似文献