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21.
北半球冬季风暴轴与ENSO循环的关系及其能量平衡特征 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
利用欧洲中期天气预报中心的再分析资料,分析了北半球冬季对流层上层300 hPa面上风暴轴与ENSO循环的关系以及风暴轴的能量平衡特征.研究表明,由于El Nino年北太平洋的哈德莱环流增强,导致北太平洋西风急流向赤道和向东伸展,进而引起了北太平洋风暴轴的增强并向赤道和向东伸展;而La Nina年事件期间情形正好相反.在北大西洋,El Nino年其西风急流中心最大值有所减小,但整个西风急流区域有所扩大并向西和向赤道伸展,相应北大西洋风暴轴强度在El Nino年也有所减弱并向西和向赤道方向伸展;La Nina事件的情形正好相反.能量分析表明,斜压转换的正值中心位于风暴轴及其上游区域.在El Nino年,北太平洋斜压转换的正值中心向赤道和向下游伸展,而北大西洋斜压转换的正值中心向赤道和向西伸展,这与北太平洋风暴轴和北大西洋风暴的变化趋势是一致的.行星尺度扰动对斜压转换的贡献比天气尺度扰动的贡献要小,而行星尺度-天气尺度扰动的相互作用项对斜压转换的贡献更小.研究还表明,能量正压转换的正中心化于风暴轴的上游,负中心位于风暴轴区域.相对于La Nina年,El Nino年北太平洋东部的正压转换负值中心偏北,北美的正值中心位置偏南,而北大西洋的负值中心强度减弱范围变小.这些变化与从La Nina年剑El Nino年北太平洋和北大西洋风暴轴的变化是一致的.在能量的正压转换过程中,天气尺度扰动的贡献要大于行星尺度扰动,而行星尺度-天气尺度扰动的相互作用项的贡献更小. 相似文献
22.
The present work is concerned with the study of intensification of tropical disturbances with a view to improve prediction
and early warning. The tropical disturbances are known to come in sizes (radii) ranging from 100–400 kms. Since the vortices
of different sizes give rise to different initial convergence fields and since the subsequent development of the tropical
depressions is very sensitive to the initial convergence fields, we argue that the size of the incipient vortex is likely
to be an important factor in determining the subsequent development of a tropical disturbance.
We have examined the above hypothesis using an axisymmetric model of tropical cyclone. The incipient vortex is introduced
by prescribing an initial temperature perturbation with wind in gradient balance. The results show a fairly sharp selection
of scale at about 250 km radius. This implies that out of a number of initial disturbances of varying sizes and embedded in
the same large scale environment, it is the vortex with about 250 km radius size that will develop to the most severe system.
The sensitivity of this selective intensification at this incipient vortex radius to initial perturbation field and the mean
thermodynamic state is investigated. Finally, the importance of such a selective scale of intensification for prediction,
tracking and early warning of tropical cyclones is emphasized. 相似文献
23.
浙江省登陆热带气旋气候特征初探 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
龚 《南京气象学院学报》2003,26(6):773-779
利用52a(1949-2000年)西北太平洋热带气旋基本资料,分析了热带气旋在浙江省登陆的一般气候特征。在此基础上,将这些热带气旋分为入海类和消失类,从而进一步分析了热带气旋登陆后的强度变化、维持时间、消失位置等气候规律。 相似文献
24.
P. K. Pal B. M. Rao C. M. Kishtawal M. S. Narayanan G. Rajkumar 《Journal of Earth System Science》1989,98(4):353-364
INSAT visible and infrared imageries of three cyclones in the Bay of Bengal during the period 1984–1987 were analysed with
a view to improve the cyclone track prediction in this region. It was observed that the rotation in the major structural cloud
features (as seen from the cloud-top temperature maps) associated with these cyclones in the Bay of Bengal is followed with
a change in direction of their movement. This method is seen to be particularly effective when the cyclone is severe and when
the major cloud features persist for a reasonably longer time. In the present study, only the direction of movement is forecast
assuming a uniform speed of the cyclone. 相似文献
25.
Coastal inundation associated with extreme sea levels is the main factor which leads to the loss of life and property whenever a severe tropical cyclonic storm hits the Indian coasts. The Andhra and Orissa coasts are most vulnerable for coastal inundation due to extreme rise in sea levels associated with tropical cyclones. Loss of life may be minimized if extreme sea levels and associated coastal flooding is predicted well in advance. Keeping this in view, location specific coastal inundation models are developed and applied for the Andhra and Orissa coasts of India. Several numerical experiments are carried out using the data of past severe cyclones that struck these regions. The simulated inland inundation distances are found to be in general agreement with the reported flooding. 相似文献
26.
Extreme sea levels associated with severe cyclonic storms are common occurrences along the east coast of India. The coastal districts of Orissa have experienced major surges in the past. The recent Paradip super cyclone is one of the most severe cyclones, causing extensive damage to property and loss of lives. Extreme sea levels are major causes for coastal flooding in this region. Damages can be minimized if the extreme sea levels are forecast well in advance. In the present study, we develop a location specific, fine resolution model for the Orissa coast on the lines similar to that of IIT-D storm surge model (Dube et al. 1994). The model runs on a personal computer. The bathymetry for the model is extracted from very fine resolution naval hydrographic charts for the region extending from the south of Orissa to south of West Bengal. A simple drying scheme has also been included in the model in order to avoid the exposure of land near the coast due to strong negative sea surface elevations. An attempt was made in this study to simulate extreme sea levels along the Orissa coast using the data of past severe cyclones. The model results reported in the present study are in good agreement with available observations or estimates. 相似文献
27.
28.
可能最大风暴潮风险评估中各等级热带气旋设定方法 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
可能最大热带气旋的设定是可能最大风暴潮计算的基础,对风暴潮灾害应急疏散具有重要意义。利用1949~2011年中国气象局(CMA)西北太平洋热带气旋最佳路径数据集、美国联合台风预警中心(JTWC)以及美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)最大风速半径数据集,基于各等级热带气旋参数之间的定量关系,建立了各等级可能最大热带气旋最大风速、中心气压、最大风速半径、移动速度、移动方向等参数设定及路径合成的方法。以福建省连江县为例,按照台风、强台风及超强台风强度等级,分强度衰减和不衰减2种情况,设定3种移动方向,合成了共216场热带气旋作为可能最大风暴潮的计算输入。另外,对参数敏感性、风场参数设定、参数设定与计算量的关系、叠加天文潮以及溃堤等问题进行了讨论。 相似文献
29.
30.