Flood insurance arrangements in the European Union for future flood risk under climate and socioeconomic change     

《Global Environmental Change》2019

Flood risk will increase in many areas around the world due to climate change and increase in economic exposure. This implies that adequate flood insurance schemes are needed to adapt to increasing flood risk and to minimise welfare losses for households in flood-prone areas. Flood insurance markets may need reform to offer sufficient and affordable financial protection and incentives for risk reduction. Here, we present the results of a study that aims to evaluate the ability of flood insurance arrangements in Europe to cope with trends in flood risk, using criteria that encompass common elements of the policy debate on flood insurance reform. We show that the average risk-based flood insurance premium could double between 2015 and 2055 in the absence of more risk reduction by households exposed to flooding. We show that part of the expected future increase in flood risk could be limited by flood insurance mechanisms that better incentivise risk reduction by policyholders, which lowers vulnerability. The affordability of flood insurance can be improved by introducing the key features of public-private partnerships (PPPs), which include public reinsurance, limited premium cross-subsidisation between low- and high-risk households, and incentives for policyholder-level risk reduction. These findings were evaluated in a comprehensive sensitivity analysis and support ongoing reforms in Europe and abroad that move towards risk-based premiums and link insurance with risk reduction, strengthen purchase requirements, and engage in multi-stakeholder partnerships.  相似文献   

On matryoshkas and meaning-making: Understanding the plasticity of climate change     

《Global Environmental Change》2019

Climate change is a complex issue and means different things to different people. Numerous scholars in history, philosophy, and psychology have explored these multiple meanings, referred to as the plasticity of climate change. Building on psychological research that seeks to explain why meanings differ, I present an analytical framework that draws on adult developmental psychology to explore how meaning is constructed, and how it may become increasingly more complex across a lifespan in a nested manner, much like Russian dolls (or matryoshkas). I then use the framework to analyze photo voice data from a case study about local perspectives on climate change in El Salvador. The main finding from this analysis is that a developmental approach can help to make sense of why there is such plasticity of meanings about climate change. Using photos and their interpretations to illustrate these findings, I examine how perspective-taking capacities arrive at different meanings about climate change, based on the object of awareness, complexity of thought, and scope of time. I then discuss implications of this preliminary work on how developmental psychology could help climate change scholar-practitioners to understand and align with different climate change meanings and support local actors to translate their own meanings about climate change into locally-owned actions.  相似文献   

Perceptions and responses to climate policy risks among California farmers     

Meredith T. Niles  Mark Lubell  Van R. Haden 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(6):1752-1760

This paper considers how farmers perceive and respond to climate change policy risks, and suggests that understanding these risk responses is as important as understanding responses to biophysical climate change impacts. Based on a survey of 162 farmers in California, we test three hypotheses regarding climate policy risk: (1) that perceived climate change risks will have a direct impact on farmer's responses to climate policy risks, (2) that previous climate change experiences will influence farmer's climate change perceptions and climate policy risk responses, and (3) that past experiences with environmental policies will more strongly affect a farmer's climate change beliefs, risks, and climate policy risk responses. Using a structural equation model we find support for all three hypotheses and furthermore show that farmers’ negative past policy experiences do not make them less likely to respond to climate policy risks through participation in a government incentive program. We discuss how future research and climate policies can be structured to garner greater agricultural participation. This work highlights that understanding climate policy risk responses and other social, economic and policy perspectives is a vital component of understanding climate change beliefs, risks and behaviors and should be more thoroughly considered in future work.  相似文献   

The control of the production process of phytoplankton by the physical structure of the aquatic environment with special reference to its optical properties   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Barbara B. Prézelin  Max M. Tilzer  Oscar Schofield  Clivia Haese 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》1991,53(2-3):136-186

This tutorial was designed for nonbiologists requiring an introduction to the nature and general timescales of phytoplankton responses to physical forcing in aquatic environments. As such, an effort was made to highlight biological markers which might assist in identifying, measuring and/or validating physical processes controlling the variability in the distribution, abundance, composition and activity of phytoplankton communities. Given the recent advances in environmental optics and remote sensing capabilities, a special emphasis was placed on the nature and utility of phytoplankton optical properties in current bio-optical modelling efforts to predict temporal and spatial variability in phytoplankton productivity and growth.  相似文献   

Climate induced temperature effects on growth performance, fecundity and recruitment in marine fish: developing a hypothesis for cause and effect relationships in Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and common eelpout (Zoarces viviparus)     

H. O. Prtner  B. Berdal  R. Blust  O. Brix  A. Colosimo  B. De Wachter  A. Giuliani  T. Johansen  T. Fischer  R. Knust  G. Lannig  G. Naevdal  A. Nedenes  G. Nyhammer  F. J. Sartoris  I. Serendero  P. Sirabella  S. Thorkildsen  M. Zakhartsev 《Continental Shelf Research》2001,21(18-19)

Effects of global warming on animal distribution and performance become visible in many marine ecosystems. The present study was designed to develop a concept for a cause and effect understanding with respect to temperature changes and to explain ecological findings based on physiological processes. The concept is based on a wide comparison of invertebrate and fish species with a special focus on recent data obtained in two model species of fish. These fish species are both characterized by northern and southern distribution limits in the North Atlantic: eelpout (Zoarces viviparus), as a typical non-migrating inhabitant of the coastal zone and the cod (Gadus morhua), as a typical inhabitant of the continental shelf with a high importance for fisheries.Mathematical modelling demonstrates a clear significant correlation between climate induced temperature fluctuations and the recruitment of cod stocks. Growth performance in cod is optimal at temperatures close to 10°C, regardless of the population investigated in a latitudinal cline. However, temperature specific growth rates decrease at higher latitudes. Also, fecundity is less in White Sea than in North and Baltic Sea cod or eelpout populations. These findings suggest that a cold-induced shift in energy budget occurs which is unfavorable for growth performance and fecundity. Thermal tolerance limits shift depending on latitude and are characterized by oxygen limitation at both low or high temperatures. Oxygen supply to tissues is optimized at low temperature by a shift in hemoglobin isoforms and oxygen binding properties to lower affinities and higher unloading potential. Protective stimulation of heat shock protein synthesis was not observed.According to a recent model of thermal tolerance the downward shift of tolerance limits during cold adaptation is associated with rising mitochondrial densities and, thus, aerobic capacity and performance in the cold, especially in eurythermal species. At the same time the costs of mitochondrial maintenance reflected by mitochondrial proton leakage should rise leaving a lower energy fraction for growth and reproduction. The preliminary conclusion can be drawn that warming will cause a northern shift of distribution limits for both species with a rise in growth performance and fecundity larger than expected from the Q₁₀ effect in the north and lower growth or even extinction of the species in the south. Such a shift may heavily affect fishing activities in the North Sea.  相似文献   

THE FOUNDATION AND MOVEMENT OF TROPICAL SEMI-GEOSTROPHIC ADAPTATION   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

Chao Jiping  Lin Yonghui 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1996,10(2):129-141

The breakdown and foundation of geostrophic balance is one of the important movements inthe mid-and high-latitude atmosphere and oceans.In the tropical area,the value of Coriolis pa-rameter is so small that it is difficult to satisfy the bi-geostrophic equilibrium between the pressureand velocity fields.However,in the tropical area,the zonal velocity of some motions in the atmo-sphere and oceans is large,so the Coriolis force is not small,geostrophic balance can exist in zonaldirection,i.e.semi-geostrophic balance.Furthermore,in the dominant area of Hadley circulationin the atmosphere or the area near the ocean meridional boundary,the meridional velocity is large,so geostrophic balance can also exist in meridional direction.In this paper,the process of the dis-persion of inertial gravity wave and the foundation of semi-geostrophic balance are first discussed.Second,the adjustment process between the velocity and pressure fields after adaptation is alsoviewed,and the scale criterion of the semi-geostrophic adaptation is discussed,i.e.for the motionwith meridional scale greater than the equatorial Rossby radius of deformation,the velocity andpressure fields after adaptation change to fit the initial pressure field;on the contrary,the fieldschange to fit the initial zonal velocity field,and the strength of the fields after adaptation dependson the zonal scale.  相似文献   

气候变化对京津唐地区水资源及供需平衡的影响   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

王建生  张世法 《水科学进展》1996,7(1):26-36

根据大气环流模型(GCMs)输出的未来气候变化情景,结合历史资料的诊断分析,应用建立的流域水文模型及水资源利用综合评价模型,研究了气候变化对京津唐地区水资源数量和时空变化的影响。在地区未来经济发展及部门用水量预测的基础上,分析了气候变化对供水、需水和部门缺水的影响以及经济损失。  相似文献   

崇信县甘薯气候适应性分析与种植技术     

李选处  薛晓忠 《干旱气象》1995,(2)

对崇信县甘薯气候适应性分析发现，在栽苗到封垄期温度偏低，而封垄前覆膜可解决热量不足问题；水分条件基本能满足甘薯生长需要。采用适当种植技术，可使甘薯获得较高产量。  相似文献   

地震灾害风险评估及减灾策略研究——以贵州罗甸县为例     

刘军  宋立军  聂高众  任华育  郝婧  张萌  李世杰  张堡泓 《震灾防御技术》2020,15(3):484-495

为探究贵州省地震灾害风险薄弱环节，减轻地震灾害风险，以贵州省罗甸县为示范，采用地震危险性概率分析方法对各乡镇进行危险性分析，开展地震灾害承灾体现场抽样调查，通过层次分析法和问卷调查的方式，首次构建乡镇级别的地震灾害风险和减灾能力指标体系，评估各乡镇地震灾害综合指数和程度，计算各乡镇地震灾害风险指数，确定红水河镇为高风险区、罗悃镇为中风险区、木引等7个乡镇为低风险区，并从建筑物设防、地震地质灾害及水库地震等角度剖析罗甸县地震灾害特点，从农村危房改造、移民搬迁、地质灾害防护及交通等方面提出减小地震灾害风险的建议。  相似文献   

环渤海地区海(咸)水入侵特征与防治对策   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

孙晓明  徐建国  杨齐青  施佩歆  钟新宝  张素凤  潘桐  赵长荣 《华北地质》2006,29(3):203-211

本文中阐述了环渤海沿海地区海（成）水入侵的主要方式、发展进程、影响因素等基本特征，提出海（成）水入侵的综合防治对策。研究区海（成）水入侵主要有面状、带状、脉状或树枝状和越流等4种入侵方式。气候、地形地貌、地质与水文地质是发生海（成）水入侵的基础条件，地下水超采等人类不合理工程经济活动是诱发海（成）水入侵的主要原因。通过调整产业结构、建立节水型社会体系，合理规划利用水土资源，建造阻成蓄淡工程，跨流域引水，以及建立健全监测预警系统等综合措施，防止海（成）水入侵的发展。  相似文献