Climatic response of thick leaf spruce (Picea crassifolia) tree-ring width at different elevations over Qilian Mountains, northwestern China   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

X. Gou  F. Chen  M. Yang  J. Li  J. Peng  L. Jin 《Journal of Arid Environments》2005,61(4):513-524

Tree-ring cores of thick leaf spruce (Picea crassifolia) taken from four sites at different elevations, in the middle of the Qilian Mountains, in the arid and semi-arid region of northwestern China, were used to develop four tree-ring width chronologies using standard dendrochronological methods. Results indicate that with increasing altitude the chronologies’ year-to-year variations decreased. Hence, the sensitivity of the tree-ring chronologies to climate decreases with altitude. Further analysis showed that the significant limiting factor on tree growth is spring precipitation. Measurements of stomata density and leaf dry weight suggest the species’ ecological adaptation strategy changes with elevation. At high elevation the metabolic rate of thick leaf spruce decreases, thus showing the effect of the climate.  相似文献   

Snow model sensitivity analysis to understand spatial and temporal snow dynamics in a high‐elevation catchment          下载免费PDF全文

Michael Engel  Claudia Notarnicola  Stefano Endrizzi  Giacomo Bertoldi 《水文研究》2017,31(23):4151-4168

In this paper, we addressed a sensitivity analysis of the snow module of the GEOtop2.0 model at point and catchment scale in a small high‐elevation catchment in the Eastern Italian Alps (catchment size: 61 km²). Simulated snow depth and snow water equivalent at the point scale were compared with measured data at four locations from 2009 to 2013. At the catchment scale, simulated snow‐covered area (SCA) was compared with binary snow cover maps derived from moderate‐resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Landsat satellite imagery. Sensitivity analyses were used to assess the effect of different model parameterizations on model performance at both scales and the effect of different thresholds of simulated snow depth on the agreement with MODIS data. Our results at point scale indicated that modifying only the “snow correction factor” resulted in substantial improvements of the snow model and effectively compensated inaccurate winter precipitation by enhancing snow accumulation. SCA inaccuracies at catchment scale during accumulation and melt period were affected little by different snow depth thresholds when using calibrated winter precipitation from point scale. However, inaccuracies were strongly controlled by topographic characteristics and model parameterizations driving snow albedo (“snow ageing coefficient” and “extinction of snow albedo”) during accumulation and melt period. Although highest accuracies (overall accuracy = 1 in 86% of the catchment area) were observed during winter, lower accuracies (overall accuracy < 0.7) occurred during the early accumulation and melt period (in 29% and 23%, respectively), mostly present in areas with grassland and forest, slopes of 20–40°, areas exposed NW or areas with a topographic roughness index of ?0.25 to 0 m. These findings may give recommendations for defining more effective model parameterization strategies and guide future work, in which simulated and MODIS SCA may be combined to generate improved products for SCA monitoring in Alpine catchments.  相似文献   

Sensitivity of a hydraulic model to channel erosion uncertainty during extreme flooding          下载免费PDF全文

Jefferson S. Wong  Jim E. Freer  Paul D. Bates  David A. Sear  Elisabeth M. Stephens 《水文研究》2015,29(2):261-279

Recent research into flood modelling has primarily concentrated on the simulation of inundation flow without considering the influences of channel morphology. River channels are often represented by a simplified geometry that is implicitly assumed to remain unchanged during flood simulations. However, field evidence demonstrates that significant morphological changes can occur during floods to mobilize the boundary sediments. Despite this, the effect of channel morphology on model results has been largely unexplored. To address this issue, the impact of channel cross‐section geometry and channel long‐profile variability on flood dynamics is examined using an ensemble of a 1D–2D hydraulic model (LISFLOOD‐FP) of the ~1 : 2000 year recurrence interval floods in Cockermouth, UK, within an uncertainty framework. A series of simulated scenarios of channel erosional changes were constructed on the basis of a simple velocity‐based model of critical entrainment. A Monte‐Carlo simulation framework was used to quantify the effects of this channel morphology together with variations in the channel and floodplain roughness coefficients, grain size characteristics and critical shear stress on measures of flood inundation. The results showed that the bed elevation modifications generated by the simplistic equations reflected an approximation of the observed patterns of spatial erosion that enveloped observed erosion depths. The effect of uncertainty on channel long‐profile variability only affected the local flood dynamics and did not significantly affect the friction sensitivity and flood inundation mapping. The results imply that hydraulic models generally do not need to account for within event morphodynamic changes of the type and magnitude of event modelled, as these have a negligible impact that is smaller than other uncertainties, e.g. boundary conditions. Instead, morphodynamic change needs to happen over a series of events to become large enough to change the hydrodynamics of floods in supply limited gravel‐bed rivers such as the one used in this research. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Integrating isolated and riparian wetland modules in the PHYSITEL/HYDROTEL modelling platform: model performance and diagnosis          下载免费PDF全文

Maxime Fossey  Alain N. Rousseau  Fatima Bensalma  Stéphane Savary  Alain Royer 《水文研究》2015,29(22):4683-4702

Mathematical modelling is a well‐accepted framework to evaluate the effects of wetlands on stream flow and watershed hydrology in general. Although the integration of wetland modules into a distributed hydrological model represents a cost‐effective way to make this assessment, the added value brought by landscape‐specific modules to a model's ability to replicate basic hydrograph characteristics remains unclear. The objectives of this paper were the following: (i) to present the adaptation of PHYSITEL (a geographic information system) to parameterize isolated and riparian wetlands; (ii) to describe the integration of specific isolated wetland and riparian wetland modules into HYDROTEL, a distributed hydrological model; and (iii) to evaluate the performance of the updated modelling platform with respect to the capacity of replicating various hydrograph characteristics. To achieve this, two sets of simulations were performed (with and without wetland modules), and the added value was assessed at three river segments of the Becancour River watershed, Quebec, Canada, using six general goodness‐of‐fit indicators and 14 water flow criteria. A sensitivity analysis of the wetland module parameters was performed to characterize their impact on stream flows of the modelled watershed. Results of this study indicate the following: (i) integration of specific wetland modules can slightly increase the capacity of HYDROTEL to replicate basic hydrograph characteristics; and (ii) the updated modelling platform allows for the explicit assessment of the impact of wetlands (e.g. typology and location) on watershed hydrology. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Sensitivity of soil parameters in unsaturated zone modelling and the relation between effective,laboratory and in situ estimates     

J. Mertens  H. Madsen  M. Kristensen  D. Jacques  J. Feyen 《水文研究》2005,19(8):1611-1633

Simulation of soil moisture content requires effective soil hydraulic parameters that are valid at the modelling scale. This study investigates how these parameters can be estimated by inverse modelling using soil moisture measurements at 25 locations at three different depths (at the surface, at 30 and 60 cm depth) on an 80 by 20 m hillslope. The study presents two global sensitivity analyses to investigate the sensitivity in simulated soil moisture content of the different hydraulic parameters used in a one‐dimensional unsaturated zone model based on Richards' equation. For estimation of the effective parameters the shuffled complex evolution algorithm is applied. These estimated parameters are compared to their measured laboratory and in situ equivalents. Soil hydraulic functions were estimated in the laboratory on 100 cm³ undisturbed soil cores collected at 115 locations situated in two horizons in three profile pits along the hillslope. Furthermore, in situ field saturated hydraulic conductivity was estimated at 120 locations using single‐ring pressure infiltrometer measurements. The sensitivity analysis of 13 soil physical parameters (saturated hydraulic conductivity (K_s), saturated moisture content (θ_s), residual moisture content (θ_r), inverse of the air‐entry value (α), van Genuchten shape parameter (n), Averjanov shape parameter (N) for both horizons, and depth (d) from surface to B horizon) in a two‐layer single column model showed that the parameter N is the least sensitive parameter. K_s of both horizons, θ_s of the A horizon and d were found to be the most sensitive parameters. Distributions over all locations of the effective parameters and the distributions of the estimated soil physical parameters from the undisturbed soil samples and the single‐ring pressure infiltrometer estimates were found significantly different at a 5% level for all parameters except for α of the A horizon and K_s and θ_s of the B horizon. Different reasons are discussed to explain these large differences. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

基于灵敏度分析的海洋油气资源BP神经网络预测模型的优化   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

赵健  刘展 《海洋科学》2016,40(5):103-108

作者针对BP神经网络结构设计中存在的问题,提出利用灵敏度分析方法对BP神经网络预测模型进行优化。通过BP算法与参数灵敏度分析的结合,寻找网络输入属性与输出属性之间的影响因子;在保证精度的前提下优选网络输入属性,简化网络结构,以增强网络的泛化能力,减少人为主观因素对网络设计的影响。最后以海洋油气资源预测为例,结合实测资料建立BP神经网络预测模型并进行了优化及预测精度评价,表明优化后的模型既能有效提高油气资源预测结果的稳定性,又不损失预测精度。  相似文献   

6600 years of earthquake record in the Julian Alps (Lake Bohinj,Slovenia)     

《Sedimentology》2018,65(5):1777-1799

Sequences of lake sediments often form long and continuous records that may be sensitive recorders of seismic shaking. A multi‐proxy analysis of Lake Bohinj sediments associated with a well‐constrained chronology was conducted to reconstruct Holocene seismic activity in the Julian Alps (Slovenia). A seismic reflection survey and sedimentological analyses identified 29 homogenite‐type deposits related to mass‐wasting deposits. The most recent homogenites can be linked to historical regional earthquakes (i.e. 1348 ad , 1511 ad and 1690 ad ) with strong epicentral intensity [greater than ‘damaging’ (VIII ) on the Medvedev–Sponheuer–Karnik scale]. The correlation between the historical earthquake data set and the homogenites identified in a core isolated from local stream inputs, allows interpretation of all similar deposits as earthquake related. This work extends the earthquake chronicle of the last 6600 years in this area with a total of 29 events recorded. The early Holocene sedimentary record is disturbed by a seismic event (6617 ± 94 cal yr bp ) that reworked previously deposited sediment and led to a thick sediment deposit identified in the seismic survey. The period between 3500 cal yr bp and 2000 cal yr bp is characterized by a major destabilization in the watershed by human activities that led to increases in erosion and sedimentation rates. This change increased the lake's sensitivity to recording an earthquake (earthquake‐sensitivity threshold index) with the occurrence of 72 turbidite‐type deposits over this period. The high turbidite frequency identified could be the consequence of this change in lake earthquake sensitivity and thus these turbidites could be triggered by earthquake shaking, as other origins are discarded. This study illustrates why it is not acceptable to propose a return period for seismic activity recorded in lake sediment if the sedimentation rate varies significantly.  相似文献   

IPCC AR6报告解读：地球能量收支、气候反馈和气候敏感度     

张华  王菲  赵树云  谢冰 《气候变化研究进展》2021,17(6):691-698

文中对IPCC第六次评估报告（AR6）第一工作组（WGI）报告的第七章关于地球能量收支、气候反馈和气候敏感度中的重要内容进行了凝练,并简要总结该方面的最新研究成果和结论。评估显示,自工业革命以来,人类活动造成的有效辐射强迫（ERF）为2.72 [1.96~3.48] W/m²,其中,均匀混合温室气体的贡献为3.32 [3.03~3.61] W/m²,气溶胶的贡献为-1.1 [-1.7~-0.4] W/m²。净的气候反馈参数为-1.16 [-1.81~-0.51] W/(m²∙℃),云仍然是气候反馈整体不确定性的最大来源。平衡态气候敏感度（ECS）和瞬态气候响应（TCR）可用于评估全球平均地表气温对强迫的响应,是衡量全球气候响应的有效手段。ECS和TCR的最佳估计分别为3.0 [2.0~5.0]℃和1.8 [1.2~2.4]℃。  相似文献   

A geometric-based approach for road matching on multi-scale datasets using a genetic algorithm   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Alireza Chehreghan 《制图学和地理信息科学》2018,45(3):255-269

Object matching is used in various applications including conflation, data quality assessment, updating, and multi-scale analysis. The objective of matching is to identify objects referring to the same entity. This article aims to present an optimization-based linear object-matching approach in multi-scale, multi-source datasets. By taking into account geometric criteria, the proposed approach uses real coded genetic algorithm (RCGA) and sensitivity analysis to identify corresponding objects. Moreover, in this approach, any initial dependency on empirical parameters such as buffer distance, threshold of spatial similarity degree, and weights of criteria is eliminated and, instead, the optimal values for these parameters are calculated for each dataset. Volunteered geographical information (VGI) and authoritative data with different scales and sources were used to assess the efficiency of the proposed approach. According to the results, in addition to an efficient performance in various datasets, the proposed approach was able to appropriately identify the corresponding objects in these datasets by achieving higher F-Score.  相似文献   

基于F-MCDM的冰川旅游游客满意度综合评价及敏感性分析     

唐凡  杨建平  贺青山  陈虹举  黄仕海  张伏  王彦霞  葛秋伶 《冰川冻土》2021,43(5):1571-1581

游客满意度是衡量旅游地竞争力的关键因素之一,已受到众多旅游研究者的关注。在其热点研究中,有关冰川旅游游客满意度及不同游客属性间满意度差异的研究鲜见。选取达古冰川与海螺沟冰川为研究区,通过对游客属性细分,运用模糊多准则决策法（F-MCDM）及引入需求弹性理论对冰川旅游游客满意度进行了综合评价和敏感性分析,探讨了提升冰川旅游游客满意度的对策建议。结果表明：达古冰川游客实际满意度总体高于海螺沟冰川,两地均以管理与服务的满意度最高,消费状况与交通的满意度最低。就游客属性的相对满意度而言,两地均呈现男性满意度高于女性,高消费游客满意度高于低消费游客,高忠诚度游客满意度高于低忠诚度游客;两地相对满意度的差异表现在年龄、受教育程度、客源地和到访次数方面。相较于达古冰川,海螺沟冰川满意度敏感性更高,同等改进力度下游客满意度的提高更为明显高效,就两地满意度敏感性最高的景观特色而言,达古冰川1%的改善将提升游客满意度0.30%,而海螺沟冰川可提升0.45%;对于不同游客属性的满意度敏感性,两地均以不愿推荐、不愿重游和未达到期望的游客最高。最后依据满意度敏感性分析结果,为两地冰川旅游发展提出了关键属性改进、营销策略创新和旅游产品开发等针对性建议。  相似文献