Reducing global GHG emissions by replicating successful sector examples: the ‘good practice policies’ scenario     

Mark Roelfsema  Hanna Fekete  Niklas Höhne  Michel den Elzen  Nicklas Forsell  Takeshi Kuramochi 《Climate Policy》2018,18(9):1103-1113

This article shows the potential impact on global GHG emissions in 2030, if all countries were to implement sectoral climate policies similar to successful examples already implemented elsewhere. This assessment was represented in the IMAGE and GLOBIOM/G4M models by replicating the impact of successful national policies at the sector level in all world regions. The first step was to select successful policies in nine policy areas. In the second step, the impact on the energy and land-use systems or GHG emissions was identified and translated into model parameters, assuming that it would be possible to translate the impacts of the policies to other countries. As a result, projected annual GHG emission levels would be about 50 GtCO₂e by 2030 (2% above 2010 levels), compared to the 60 GtCO₂e in the ‘current policies’ scenario. Most reductions are achieved in the electricity sector through expanding renewable energy, followed by the reduction of fluorinated gases, reducing venting and flaring in oil and gas production, and improving industry efficiency. Materializing the calculated mitigation potential might not be as straightforward given different country priorities, policy preferences and circumstances.

Key policy insights

• Considerable emissions reductions globally would be possible, if a selection of successful policies were replicated and implemented in all countries worldwide.

• This would significantly reduce, but not close, the emissions gap with a 2°C pathway.

• From the selection of successful policies evaluated in this study, those implemented in the sector ‘electricity supply’ have the highest impact on global emissions compared to the ‘current policies’ scenario.

• Replicating the impact of these policies worldwide could lead to emission and energy trends in the renewable electricity, passenger transport, industry (including fluorinated gases) and buildings sector, that are close to those in a 2°C scenario.

• Using successful policies and translating these to policy impact per sector is a more reality-based alternative to most mitigation pathways, which need to make theoretical assumptions on policy cost-effectiveness.

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江汉和江南西部春玉米涝渍指标及风险评估   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

杨宏毅  霍治国  杨建莹  张桂香  吴立  范雨娴 《应用气象学报》2017,28(2):237-246

以江汉和江南西部地区春玉米为研究对象,利用研究区域内57个气象站1961-2012年的逐日降水量资料、春玉米生育期资料和春玉米涝渍灾情资料,筛选春玉米不同生育时期的涝渍灾害样本。采用多元线性回归分析方法,定量分析当前过程降水量和前期降水量对春玉米涝渍灾害的影响,并据此构建当量降水量。基于正态分布的Lilliefors检验和t-分布区间估计方法,计算不同生育时期、不同等级涝渍灾害的当量降水量指标阈值,由此构建该区域春玉米不同生育时期的涝渍灾害等级指标并进行独立样本验证。在此基础上,利用信息扩散理论风险评估方法,计算各站点的春玉米涝渍致灾风险指数。结果表明:当前过程降水量和前2旬降水量对该区域春玉米涝渍灾害有显著性影响;构建的区域春玉米涝渍等级指标能够较好地反映实际受灾情况,指标验证结果与历史记录有较高一致性;出苗-拔节期和拔节-抽雄期发生春玉米涝渍灾害的风险相对较低,抽雄-成熟期为春玉米涝渍灾害的高风险时期,高风险区域主要位于湖北省恩施市、宜昌市西南部、荆州市西南部以及湖南省张家界市北部。  相似文献   

基于综合指标法的中国生态系统服务保护有效性评价研究   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

张立伟  傅伯杰  吕一河  董治宝  李英杰  曾源  吴炳方 《地理学报》2016,71(5):768-780

将生态系统服务保护纳入到传统的以保护区为基础的自然保护之中是生态保护研究的新领域。利用综合指标方法,分析了中国从2000-2010年的4种生态系统服务时空变化特征;并对中国的七大生态保护和恢复区域的服务空间保护成效进行评价,提出了国家尺度上的生态系统服务保护优先性分级。主要结论为：① 中国的生态系统服务自西北向东南逐渐增加,显著增加区主要分布在黄土高原地区,显著减少区主要分布在东北及华北地区。黄土高原的生态系统服务提高主要是农田向草地和林地、草地向林地的转换引的;华北地区的降低主要是耕地的减少以及人工用地的增加引起的;东北地区是由于林地向耕地草地、耕地向湿地与人工用地的转换引起的。② 七大生态保护和恢复区的生态系统服务均为增加趋势而且显著增加面积大于减少面积;显著增加面积最大的为三北防护林工程区、最小的为重点生态功能区;显著减少最大为重要生态功能区、最小的为三北防护林工程区。而且,对服务的保护成效在重要生态功能区最高,其次为天然林保护工程区,其余区域均小于全国平均水平。③ 提出的生态系统服务保护优先性等级中,极高级别占到了国土面积的26.18%,保护的生态系统服务量占到全国总量的64.19%,保护成效为全国平均水平的2.47倍。  相似文献   

Desertification in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Hans-Jrg Barth 《Journal of Arid Environments》1999,43(4):399

The problem of land degradation in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia is not a new phenomenon, but during the last decade it has grown to be a serious threat to the delicate desert ecosystems, and also to the urban and industrial areas, due to an increase in sand movement. The area under investigation is situated on the Gulf coast north of Jubail and is approximately 20 km in width centered along the coastline. The total area is almost 1000 km². Eight vegetation types were classified according to the dominant and co-dominant species. A comparative study of the vegetation in a fenced, non-grazed area and in an open grazed area showed that the impact of grazing and recreational activities have largely reduced the value of the rangelands. The reduction in species diversity and density leads to an increase in wind and sand dynamics. Exposed roots, giant ripples, changes in the extension of inland sabkhas and new active dunes could be observed in many parts of the study area. It could be proved that most inland sabkhas in the area are pure deflational features with considerable dynamic due to the reduction in vegetation cover during the recent years. The monitoring of vegetation density was carried out during helicopter flights with the help of GPS and a video camera. Image processing on a personal computer allowed accurate calculations of vegetation density. Observations on active dune fields in the area showed that the size of the dune fields almost doubled in 15 months. Tests in small enclosures showed that there is a potential for natural recovery even in severely damaged areas. In just one year without grazing and with average precipitation there is a significant difference in vegetation cover. Strict grazing management and camping regulations are required to prevent further degradation and allow the recovery of damaged ecosystems. Community involvement and education is necessary for the development of an understanding of regulations and the need for preservation.  相似文献   

Seasonal Changes in the Biochemical Composition of the Edible Sea Urchin Paracentrotus lividus Echinodermata: Echinoidea in a Lagoonal Environment   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

C. Fernandez 《Marine Ecology》1998,19(1):1-11

Abstract. Monthly soluble and insoluble protein, carbohydrate, lipid and ash levels and energetic content were measured in tissues of Paracentrotus lividus adults living in a lagoonal environment over a 1-year period to increase our understanding of resource allocation to the different tissues. The biochemical composition of P. lividus individuals in this environment is similar to that observed in other environments. The gonad and gut contained a high level of proteins soluble or insoluble, a lesser amount of lipids and, finally, a low level of carbohydrates. The main component of the test was ash, followed by protein levels. The lipid and carbohydrate levels in the test were very low. Seasonal variability in the biochemical composition of the different body parts was observed. In the gonad, an increase in the level of lipids was recorded concomitant to an increase in gonad weight. The lipids and carbohydrates, after an initial increase, decreased with the maturation of the gonad. The biochemical variations observed in the gut seem to be linked to both the reproductive cycle and the sea urchin's trophic activity. Variability in the test was low and irregular for all of the observed biochemical components. As P. lividus is an important member of the benthic community in the Urbinu lagoon, this echinoid represents an important store of materials and energy within this lagoonal environment.  相似文献   

4种海洋单胞藻生化组成的环境因子效应研究   总被引：15，自引：0，他引：15  

李文权  黄贤芒  陈清花  郑爱榕  王宪  蔡阿根 《海洋学报》1999,21(3):59-65

在实验室模拟条件下,应用14C示踪法测定4种海洋单胞藻的光合作用速率,研究光、温度和营养盐等环境因子对藻类细胞生化组成的影响.结果表明,三角褐指藻、盐藻、中肋骨条藻和等鞭金藻适宜生长的光强范围为5.8×103～15×103lx.4种单胞藻光合作用速率随光强增加而增大,其中盐藻和等鞭金藻的光响应比较明显.随光强增加,4种单胞藻细胞的碳水化合物含量及其变化量呈增加趋势,而蛋白质含量及其变化量则减少,脂类含量变化很小.三角褐指藻、盐藻、中肋骨条藻和等鞭金藻最适生长温度分别为:14、26、21、26℃左右.在上述4个实验温度时,4种单胞藻光合作用速率最高,细胞内的碳水化合物、蛋白质、脂类含量及其变化量也达到最大值.三角褐指藻、盐藻、中肋骨条藻和等鞭金藻光合作用过程的表观活化能(E)分别为:23.2、38.5、22.4和61.7KJ/mol,温度系数(Q10)分别为:1.74、1.74.1.38和1.69.三角褐指藻和中肋骨条藻在氮磷比(N/P)为16时,盐藻和等鞭金藻在氮磷比为28时,光合作用速率最大.在N/P为16时,4种单胞藻细胞内的碳水化合物、蛋白质、脂类含量和变化量均达到最大值.  相似文献   

基于极化相干矩阵的河流水质污染监测初探   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

陈炯  贾海峰  杨健  陈玉荣 《遥感学报》2011,15(5):1065-1078

利用遥感手段监测水质污染具有监测范围广、实时性强的优点。本研究选择中国南方地区水质变化明显的河流区域作为研究对象,利用C波段星载极化合成孔径雷达(极化SAR)卫星RADARSAT-2提供的数据,对基于极化SAR的河流水质污染监测技术进行了初步研究。首先介绍了电磁波的极化现象以及极化SAR的基本原理;其次结合一次同步测量实验,提取河流区域,并对极化SAR数据与水质常见监测指标的监测数据进行对比分析,通过对10个采样点18组数据的分析发现,极化相干矩阵中的T 22元素与部分水质指标(如五日生化需氧量BOD₅等)具有较强的相关性,从而反映水质的污染状况;并通过实测数据和最小二乘法,拟合得到了利用[T]矩阵元素反演BOD₅的经验公式,拟合系数达到0.82。最后通过对地表散射模型和菲涅尔系数的分析,从理论上探讨了极化相干矩阵中部分元素与水体物理性质存在相关性的原因。初步理论分析和实验数据表明,T 22元素能够反映水体的污染状况。  相似文献   

白洋淀浮游植物群落及其与环境因子的典范对应分析   总被引：11，自引：4，他引：7  

沈会涛  刘存歧 《湖泊科学》2008,20(6):773-779

在对湖泊生态系统健康评价研究的基础上,提出用营养状态-综合指数法（TSI-CI）对西湖进行生态系统健康评价．首先选用Chl．a、SD、TP和TN四个指标用相关加权指数法进行营养状态评价,再选择物化和生物指标无量纲化处理后计算综合指数进行综合评价．结果表明：西湖生态系统健康状况与营养状态水平的变化趋势是一致的,1—3月健康状况相对较好,7-9月相对较差．该结果客观反映了西湖的实际情况,为西湖水质管理提供科学依据。  相似文献   

Geochemical fractionation and ecological risks assessment of benthic sediment-bound heavy metals from coastal ecosystems off the Equatorial Atlantic Ocean     

Nsikak U. Benson  Essien D. Udosen  Joseph P. Essien  Winifred U. Anake  Adebusayo E. Adedapo  Oyeronke A. Akintokun  Omowunmi H. Fred-Ahmadu  Abass A. Olajire 《国际泥沙研究》2017,32(3)

This study determines the pollution, fractionation, and ecological risks of sediment-bound heavy metals from coastal ecosystems off the Equatorial Atlantic Ocean. Contamination Factor(CF), pollution load index(PLI), and geoaccumulation index(Igeo) were used to assess the extent of the heavy metal pollution, while the potential ecological risk was evaluated using the risks assessment code(RAC) and Hkanson potential ecological risk. The analysis revealed concentrations(mg/g, dw) of the cadmium(Cd),chromium(Cr), copper(Cu), nickel(Ni), and lead(Pb) in sediments for wet and dry seasons vary from 4.40-5.08, 14.80-21.09. 35.03-44.8, 2.14-2.28, and 172.24-196.39, respectively. The results also showed that the metal fractionation percentages in the residual, oxidizable, and reducible fractions are the most significant, while the exchangeable and carbonate bound trace metals are relatively low. The RAC values indicate no risk for Cd and Ni and low risk for other metals at all the studied sites during both seasons.Potential ecological risk analysis of the heavy metal concentrations indicates that Cd had high individual potential ecological risk, while the other metals have low risk at all investigated sites. The multi-elemental potential ecological risk indices(R_1) indicate high ecological risk in all the ecosystems.  相似文献   

Study on the urban heat island effects and its relationship with surface biophysical characteristics using MODIS imageries     

Yongnian Zeng  Wei Huang  F. Benjamin Zhan  Honghui Zhang  Huimin Liu 《地球空间信息科学学报》2010,13(1):1-7

This study assesses surface urban heat island (UHI) and its associated surface physical characteristics using remote sensing approaches. TERRA/MODIS images acquired in 2005 in three different seasons were selected to generate land surface tem-perature and surface characteristics for the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan metropolitan area in China. The intensity of urban heat is-land effects and its seasonal variations were examined. The result showed that UHI effects were significant both in the summer and the spri...  相似文献