近50年来黑河山区汇流区温度及降水变化趋势   总被引：29，自引：7，他引：22  

蓝永超  丁永建  康尔泗 《高原气象》2004,23(5):723-727

利用有关水文气象观测资料、史料和树轮资料,对黑河山区汇流区降水近50年来的变化特征及其与全球气候变暖的对应关系、变化的可能成因及变化趋势进行了分析。结果表明：黑河山区汇流区降水对全球气候变暖响应比较明显,近50年来黑河山区汇流区降水随全球气温升高呈缓慢增加的趋势。由于西太平洋副热带高压与全球气温变化有着密切的关系,而西太平洋副热带高压的增强和扩大有利于东亚夏季风向北推进至更北,从而使祁连山中西部降水增加。因此,总体来说,全球气候的变暖有利于黑河山区汇流区降水的增加。目前,黑河山区汇流区正处于1980年代开始的历史上有资料记载以来的第5个温暖期和第3个暖湿期,预计在相当一段时期内,黑河山区汇流区降水将随着全球气候的进一步变暖,继续维持这种缓慢增长的状况。  相似文献   

中国近代北方极端干湿事件的演变规律   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

马柱国  丹利  胡跃文 《地理学报(英文版)》2004,14(3):275-281

Using monthly precipitation and monthly mean temperature, a surface humid index was proposed. According to the index, the distributed characteristics of extreme dryness has been fully analyzed. The results indicated that there is an obvious increasing trend of extreme dryness in the central part of northern China and northeastern China in the last 10 years, which shows a high frequency period of extreme dryness; while a low frequency period in the regions during the last 100 years. Compared with variation trend of the temperature in these regions, the region of high frequent extreme dryness is consistent with the warming trend in the same region.  相似文献   

Snow cover monitoring in the Northern Patagonia Icefield using MODIS satellite images (2000–2006)     

Paulina Lopez  Pascal Sirguey  Yves Arnaud  Bernard Pouyaud  Pierre Chevallier 《Global and Planetary Change》2008,61(3-4):103-116

The snow cover of the Northern Patagonia Icefield (NPI) was monitored after applying the Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI) and the Red/NIR band ratio to 134 Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images captured between 2000 and 2006. The final results show that the snow cover extent of the NPI fluctuates a lot in winter, in addition to its seasonal behaviour. The minimum snow cover extent of the period (3600 km²) was observed in March 2000 and the maximum (11,623 km²) in August 2001. We found that temperature accounts for approximately 76% of the variation of the snow cover extent over the entire icefield. We also show two different regimes of winter snow cover fluctuations corresponding to the eastern and the western sides of the icefield. The seasonality of the snow cover on the western side was determined by temperature rather than precipitation, while on the east side the seasonality of the snow cover was influenced by the seasonal behaviour of both temperature and precipitation. This difference can be explained by the two distinct climates: coastal and continental. The fluctuations in the winter snow cover extent were more pronounced and less controlled by temperature on the western side than on the eastern side of the icefield. Snow cover extent was correlated with temperature R² = 0.75 and R² = 0.74 for the western and eastern sides, respectively. Since limited meteorological data are available in this region, our investigation confirmed that the change in snow cover is an interesting climatic indicator over the NPI providing important insights in mass balance comprehension. Since snow and ice were distinguished snow cover fluctuations can be associated to fluctuations in the snow accumulation area of the NPI. In addition, days with minimum snow covers of summer season can be associated to the period in which Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA) is the highest.  相似文献   

Biomization and quantitative climate reconstruction techniques in northwestern Mexico—With an application to four Holocene pollen sequences     

C.I. Ortega-Rosas  J. Guiot  M.C. Pealba  M.E. Ortiz-Acosta 《Global and Planetary Change》2008,61(3-4):242-266

New paleovegetation and paleoclimatic reconstructions from the Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO) in northwestern Mexico are presented. This work involves climate and biome reconstruction using Plant Functional Types (PFT) assigned to pollen taxa. We used fossil pollen data from four Holocene peat bogs located at different altitudes (1500‑2000 m) at the border region of Sonora and Chihuahua at around 28° N latitude (Ortega-Rosas, C.I. 2003. Palinología de la Ciénega de Camilo: datos para la historia de la vegetación y el clima del Holoceno medio y superior en el NW de la Sierra Madre Occidental, Sonora, Mexico. Master Thesis, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México D.F.; Ortega-Rosas, C.I., Peñalba, M.C., Guiot, J. Holocene altitudinal shifts in vegetation belts and environmental changes in the Sierra Madre Occidental, Northwestern Mexico. Submitted for publication of Palaeobotany and Palynology). The closest modern pollen data come from pollen analysis across an altitudinal transect from the Sonoran Desert towards the highlands of the temperate SMO at the same latitude (Ortega-Rosas, C.I. 2003. Palinología de la Ciénega de Camilo: datos para la historia de la vegetación y el clima del Holoceno medio y superior en el NW de la Sierra Madre Occidental, Sonora, Mexico. Master Thesis, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México D.F.). An additional modern pollen dataset of 400 sites across NW Mexico and the SW United States was compiled from different sources (Davis, O.K., 1995. Climate and vegetation pattern in surface samples from arid western U.S.A.: application to Holocene climatic reconstruction. Palynology 19, 95–119, North American Pollen Database, Latin-American Pollen Database, personal data, and different scientific papers). For the biomization method (Prentice, I.C., Guiot, J., Huntley, B., Jolly, D., Cheddadi, R., 1996. Reconstructing biomes from paleoecological data: a general method and its application to European pollen data at 0 and 6 ka. Climate Dynamics 12, 185–194), we modified the pollen-PFT and PFT-biomes assignation of Thompson and Anderson (Thompson, R.S., Anderson, K.H., 2000. Biomes of western North America at 18,000; 6000 and 0 14C yr BP reconstructed from pollen and packrat midden data. Journal of Biogeography 27, 555–584) for a better representation of the modern vegetation of NW Mexico. The biome reconstruction method was validated with the modern pollen sites and applied to the fossil sites. Our results show that, during the early Holocene, a cool conifer forest extended at least down to 1700 m, while today this biome is present above 2000 m in the Chihuahua state. The Younger Dryas event was recorded in one site with cold and dry conditions. The reconstructed annual temperature for this period was 3°–6 °C colder than today, and annual precipitation was 250 mm lower than at present (900 mm/yr). The middle Holocene after 9200 cal yr BP was marked by a warming trend, reaching temperatures 2 °C warmer than today at 7000 cal yr BP, and by the installation of a warm mixed forest, the present day biome, at 1700 m elevation, while at higher elevations (1900 m) the cool conifer forest was still present. Summer precipitation was 200 mm/yr above the early Holocene values, suggesting that monsoon-like conditions strengthened since 9200 cal yr BP at this region. During the last 4000 yr, the same warm mixed forest was reconstructed below 1700 m and a conifer forest above 1700 m. A great variability of vegetation and climate patterns was recorded for the last 3000 yr particularly at high elevation sites, where warming and cooling trends would be coeval of the Medieval warm period and Little Ice Age, likely related to ENSO variability.  相似文献   

Simulated circum-Arctic climate changes by the end of the 21st century   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Annette Rinke  Klaus Dethloff 《Global and Planetary Change》2008,62(1-2):173-186

This study investigates future changes of the Arctic climate by the end of the 21st century, simulated by the regional climate model HIRHAM forced with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM general circulation model and assuming the SRES A1B emission scenario. This assessment provides the regional patterns of future circulation, temperature, and precipitation in the Arctic by the end of the 21st century. The magnitude of winter and summer temperature and precipitation is projected to increase, while their interannual variability is projected to change seasonally and is regionally dependent. The regional-scale response of the temperature and precipitation is associated with changes in storm tracks and atmospheric baroclinicity. During winter, the regions of strongest baroclinicity are shifted northward and strengthened. Changes in the seasonal temperature and precipitation are accompanied by changes in their extremes. Extreme warm and cold events are significantly projected to change, with relative changes of seasonal precipitation being larger than those of precipitation extremes.  相似文献   

Uncertainties in climate change prediction: El Niño-Southern Oscillation and monsoons     

Heiko Paeth  Anja Scholten  Petra Friederichs  Andreas Hense 《Global and Planetary Change》2008,60(3-4):265-288

The sensitivity of climate phenomena in the low latitudes to enhanced greenhouse conditions is a scientific issue of high relevance to billions of people in the poorest countries of the globe. So far, most studies dealt with individual model results. In the present analysis, we refer to 79 coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations from 12 different climate models under 6 different IPCC scenarios. The basic question is as to what extent various state-of-the-art climate models agree in predicting changes in the main features of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the monsoon climates in South Asia and West Africa. The individual model runs are compared with observational data in order to judge whether the spatio-temporal characteristics of ENSO are well reproduced. The model experiments can be grouped into multi-model ensembles. Thus, climate change signals in the classical index time series, in the principal components and in the time series of interannual variability can be evaluated against the background of internal variability and model uncertainty.There are large differences between the individual model predictions until the end of the 21st century, especially in terms of monsoon rainfall and the Southern Oscillation index (SOI). The majority of the models tends to project La Niña-like anomalies in the SOI and an intensification of the summer monsoon precipitation in India and West Africa. However, the response barely exceeds the level of natural variability and the systematic intermodel variations are larger than the impact of different IPCC scenarios. Nonetheless, there is one prominent climate change signal, which stands out from model variations and internal noise: All forced model experiments agree in predicting a substantial warming in the eastern tropical Pacific. This oceanic heating does not necessarily lead to a modification of ENSO towards more frequent El Niño and/or La Niña events. It simply represents a change in the background state of ENSO. Indeed, we did not find convincing multi-model evidence for a modification of the wavelet spectra in terms of ENSO or the monsoons. Some models suggest an intensification of the annual cycle but this signal is fairly model-dependent. Thus, large model uncertainty still exists with respect to the future behaviour of climate in the low latitudes. This has to be taken into account when addressing climate change signals in individual model experiments and ensembles.  相似文献   

The history of environmental change and adaptation in eastern Saloum–Senegal—Driving forces and perceptions     

Cheikh Mbow  Ole Mertz  Awa Diouf  Kjeld Rasmussen  AnetteReenberg   《Global and Planetary Change》2008,64(3-4):210

Environmental change in the Sahel–Sudan zone of West Africa has been a major issue in development debates over the last decades. Using remote sensing based land cover change analysis, archival data, national and international statistical data, and household interviews, we analyze the drivers of environmental change in Eastern Saloum in Central East Senegal as well as the local perceptions of these changes and adaptation. Being part of the ground nut basin, Eastern Saloum has witnessed rapid environmental degradation caused by the conversion of forest and savanna areas to agricultural land during the last 20–30 years and by a combination of decline in precipitation, soil degradation, a diversity of policies with little concern for the environment, fluctuating markets and population pressure. Farmers perceive the environmental change mainly as land degradation and poor soil fertility, though recent extensification of agriculture counters this effect and has led to increased vegetation cover in marginal areas. They identified erratic climate, agricultural policies, insufficient food production and desire to increase income as the main drivers of change in the area. We conclude that while climate variability has influenced environmental change in the area, various types of State interventions in agriculture and global market fluctuations appear to have been the main underlying causes of environmental degradation.  相似文献   

东亚地区Younger Dryas气候突变的数值模拟研究   总被引：12，自引：10，他引：2  

陈星  于革  刘健 《第四纪研究》2004,24(6):654-662

YoungerDryas(YD)气候突变事件是近两万年中一次全球性的气候急剧变冷事件。文章试图在东亚地区YD事件的若干证据基础上,从海洋、冰盖和大气的热力学以及动力学角度出发,利用气候模拟方法就东亚地区YD气候突变的机制和一些成因假说进行敏感性试验。模拟结果表明,因淡水通量异常引起的海洋表面温度降低是YD形成的直接原因。海洋大气耦合作用对于YD传播强度及时间不同步具有重要作用。除北大西洋淡水通量异常的作用外,南半球海洋的淡水通量异常可能对东亚地区的YD事件有着更重要的贡献。海洋耦合大气环流模式模拟表明,东亚与欧洲降温具有不同步性,最大变化速率欧洲达到-0.122℃/a,东亚地区为-0.067℃/a。模拟结果与东亚地区YD时期的气候记录在特征上能够进行对比,反映了模拟试验的边界和强迫条件的设计接近东亚古气候状况,因而模拟结果对分析海洋、冰盖和大气的热力学以及动力学探讨揭示YD气候事件的物理机制和动力原因具有可靠的依据。  相似文献   

The Ascraeus Mons fan-shaped deposit: Volcano-ice interactions and the climatic implications of cold-based tropical mountain glaciation     

Seth J. Kadish  Rebecca L. Parsons 《Icarus》2008,197(1):84-109

Amazonian-aged fan-shaped deposits extending to the northwest of each of the Tharsis Montes in the Tharsis region on Mars have been interpreted to have originated from mass-wasting, volcanic, tectonic and/or glacial processes. We use new data from MRO, MGS, and Odyssey to characterize these deposits. Building on recent evidence for cold-based glacial activity at Pavonis Mons and Arsia Mons, we interpret the smaller Ascraeus fan-shaped deposit to be of glacial origin. Our geomorphological assessment reveals a number of characteristics indicative of glacial growth and retreat, including: (1) a ridged facies, interpreted to be composed of drop moraines emplaced during episodic glacial advance and retreat, (2) a knobby facies, interpreted to represent vertical downwasting of the ice sheet, and (3) complex ridges showing a cusp-like structure. We also see evidence of volcano-ice interactions in the form of: (1) an arcuate inward-facing scarp, interpreted to have formed by the chilling of lava flows against the glacial margin, (2) a plateau feature, interpreted to represent a subglacial eruption, and (3) knobby facies superimposed on flat-topped flows with leveed channels, interpreted to be subglacial inflated lava flows that subsequently drained and are covered by glacial till. We discuss the formation mechanisms of these morphologies during cold-based glacial activity and concurrent volcanism. On the basis of a Mid- to Late-Amazonian age (250-380 Ma) established from crater size-frequency distribution data, we explore the climatic implications of recent glaciation at low latitudes on Mars. GCM results show that increased insolation to the poles at high obliquities (>45°) forces sublimation of polar ice, which is transported to lower latitudes and deposited on the flanks of the Tharsis Montes. We assess how local orographic effects, the mass balance of the glacier, and the position of equilibrium line altitudes, all played a role in producing the observed geomorphologies. In doing so, we outline a glacial history for the evolution of the Ascraeus Mons fan-shaped deposit and compare its initiation, growth and demise with those of Arsia Mons and Pavonis Mons.  相似文献   

PFS/MEX observations of the condensing CO₂ south polar cap of Mars     

M. Giuranna  D. Grassi  L. Montabone  F. Forget 《Icarus》2008,197(2):386-402

The condensing CO₂ south polar cap of Mars and the mechanisms of the CO₂ ice accumulation have been studied through the analysis of spectra acquired by the Planetary Fourier Spectrometer (PFS) during the first two years of ESA's Mars Express (MEX) mission. This dataset spans more than half a martian year, from Ls∼330° to Ls∼194°, and includes the southern fall season which is found to be extremely important for the study of the residual south polar cap asymmetry. The cap expands symmetrically and with constant speed during the fall season. The maximum extension occurs sometime in the 80°-90° Ls range, when the cap edges are as low as −40° latitude. Inside Hellas and Argyre basins, frost can be stable at lower latitudes due to the higher pressure values, causing the seasonal cap to be asymmetric. Within the seasonal range considered in this paper, the cap edge recession rate is approximately half the rate at which the cap edge expanded. The longitudinal asymmetries reduce during the cap retreat, and disappear around Ls∼145°. Two different mechanisms are responsible for CO₂ ice accumulation during the fall season, especially in the 50°-70° Ls range. Here, CO₂ condensation in the atmosphere, and thus precipitation, is allowed exclusively in the western hemisphere, and particularly in the longitudinal corridor of the perennial cap. In the eastern hemisphere, the cap consists mainly of CO₂ frost deposits, as a consequence of direct vapor deposition. The differences in the nature of the surface ice deposits are the main cause for the residual south polar cap asymmetry. Results from selected PFS orbits have also been compared with the results provided by the martian general circulation model (GCM) of the Laboratoire de Météorologie dynamique (LMD) in Paris, with the aim of putting the observations in the context of the global circulation. This first attempt of cross-validation between PFS measurements and the LMD GCM on the one hand confirms the interpretation of the observations, and on the other hand shows that the climate modeling during the southern polar night on Mars is extremely sensitive to the dynamical forcing.  相似文献