中国大陆活动断裂大震复发间隔     

谢富仁  张世民  张永庆  任俊杰  张效亮  冉洪流 《震灾防御技术》2013,8(1):1-10

通过重新编制活动断层定量参数数据库,利用中国大陆活动断裂定量资料评估了中国大陆活动断裂(段)的大震复发间隔,给出了青藏、新疆、华北3个构造区的大震复发间隔分布特征。研究结果表明,青藏高原活动断裂M7.5级以上大震复发间隔远小于华北和新疆。青藏高原从几100a到2000a,而华北和新疆则从2000a到5000a。大震复发间隔与断层滑动速率成反比,边界断裂的大震复发间隔通常比块体内部断裂短,比例关系大体为1:1.5—2.0。大震复发间隔与断裂性质相关,走滑断层的复发间隔小于逆走滑断层,逆走滑断层小于逆断层,比例关系大体为1:1.5—2.5。现有的定量数据汇编成果和大震复发间隔估计以及统计结果,既可作为地震危险性分析的重要参数,又可作为构造类比研究的参考信息。  相似文献   

A Classification Method for Choropleth Maps Incorporating Data Reliability Information   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Min Sun  David W. Wong  Barry J. Kronenfeld 《The Professional geographer》2013,65(1):72-83

Observations assigned to any two classes in a choropleth map are expected to have attribute values that are different. Their values might not be statistically different, however, if the data are gathered from surveys, such as the American Community Survey, in which estimates have sampling error. This article presents an approach to determine class breaks using the class separability criterion, which refers to the levels of certainty that values in different classes are statistically different from each other. Our procedure determines class breaks that offer the highest levels of separability given the desired number of classes. The separability levels of all class breaks are included in a legend design to show the statistical likelihood that values on two sides of each class break are different. The legend and the associated separability information offer map readers crucial information about the reliability of the spatial patterns that could result from the chosen classification method.  相似文献   

A novel confidence estimation method for neural networks in multispectral image classification     

《International Journal of Digital Earth》2013,6(4):343-358

Abstract

The Digital Earth concept has attracted much attention recently and this approach uses a variety of earth observation data from the global to the local scale. Imaging techniques have made much progress technically and the methods used for automatic extraction of geo-ralated information are of importance in Digital Earth science. One of these methods, artificial neural networks (ANN) techniques, have been effectively used in classification of remotely sensed images. Generally image classification with ANN has been producing higher or equal mapping accuracies than parametric methods. Comparative studies have, in fact, shown that there is no discernible difference in classification accuracies between neural and conventional statistical approaches. Only well designed and trained neural networks can present a better performance than the standard statistical approaches. There are, as yet, no widely recognised standard methods to implement an optimum network. From this point of view it might be beneficial to quantify ANN's reliability in classification problems. To measure the reliability of the neural network might be a way of developing to determine suitable network structures. To date, the problem of confidence estimation of ANN has not been studied in remote sensing studies. A statistical method for quantifying the reliability of a neural network that can be used in image classification is investigated in this paper. For this purpose the method is to be based on a binomial experimentation concept to establish confidence intervals. This novel method can also be used for the selection of an appropriate network structure for the classification of multispectral imagery. Although the main focus of the research is to estimate confidence in ANN, the approach might also be applicable and relevant to Digital Earth technologies.  相似文献   

Statistical damage detection method for frame structures using a confidence interval   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Weiming?Li  Hongping?ZhuEmail author  Hanbin?Luo  Yong?Xia 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2010,9(1):133-140

<正>A novel damage detection method is applied to a 3-story frame structure,to obtain statistical quantification control criterion of the existence,location and identification of damage.The mean,standard deviation,and exponentially weighted moving average(EWMA) are applied to detect damage information according to statistical process control(SPC) theory.It is concluded that the detection is insignificant with the mean and EWMA because the structural response is not independent and is not a normal distribution.On the other hand,the damage information is detected well with the standard deviation because the influence of the data distribution is not pronounced with this parameter.A suitable moderate confidence level is explored for more significant damage location and quantification detection,and the impact of noise is investigated to illustrate the robustness of the method.  相似文献   

SPI drought class prediction using log-linear models applied to wet and dry seasons     

《Physics and Chemistry of the Earth》2016

A log-linear modelling for 3-dimensional contingency tables was used with categorical time series of SPI drought class transitions for prediction of monthly drought severity. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) time series in 12- and 6-month time scales were computed for 10 precipitation time series relative to GPCC datasets with 2.5° spatial resolution located over Portugal and with 112 years length (1902–2014). The aim was modelling two-month step class transitions for the wet and dry seasons of the year and then obtain probability ratios – Odds – as well as their respective confidence intervals to estimate how probable a transition is compared to another. The prediction results produced by the modelling applied to wet and dry season separately, for the 6- and the 12-month SPI time scale, were compared with the results produced by the same modelling without the split, using skill scores computed for the entire time series length. Results point to good prediction performances ranging from 70 to 80% in the percentage of corrects (PC) and 50–70% in the Heidke skill score (HSS), with the highest scores obtained when the modelling is applied to the SPI12. The adding up of the wet and dry seasons introduced in the modelling brought improvements in the predictions, of about 0.9–4% in the PC and 1.3–6.8% in the HSS, being the highest improvements obtained in the SPI6 application.  相似文献   

Multiscale sources of spatial variation in soil. III. Improved methods for fitting the nested model to one-dimensional semivariograms     

C. C. Taylor  P. A. Burrough 《Mathematical Geology》1986,18(8):811-821

The previous paper in this series presented a one-dimensional stochastic nested model to account for superimposed sources of soil variation at various scales. This paper shows how the nested model can be fitted to experimental data using weighted or generalized least-squares methods that account for correlations between consecutive terms that had previously been neglected. This paper also presents a method of estimating effective degrees of freedom for each sampling interval and thus for estimating 90% confidence limits for the semivariogram of the nested model.  相似文献   

GIS 中基本几何要素的置信区域问题研究   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

郭同德  王家耀  魏海平 《测绘学报》2003,32(2):164-167

以概率论为工具解析地研究了误差椭圆的2个重要性质，在此基础上分别为点、线及多边形建立了由椭圆和线段组成的置信域，并给出了所建置信域与其置信水平的关系。最后通过算例讨论了置信域的可视化表示问题。  相似文献   

持力层为粘性土的混凝土预制桩承载力初探     

季沧江 《上海国土资源》2002,(3):41-45

该文叙述了上海地区以粘性土为持力层的混凝土预制桩实测承载力低于理论计算值的现象，分析了产生此种现象的原因，提出了改进的具体措施。  相似文献   

A daily rainfall occurrence process   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

W. Jakubowski 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1988,2(1):1-16

A model for the periodic (annual cycle), discrete rainfall occurrence process is presented. Using this model the probabilistic properties of the process in -day intervals can be investigated. In such an interval the rainfall occurrence process is approximated by some stationary processa _t ,tIN. The processa _t ,tIN is described by the distributions of the lengths of wet and dry sequences. It is assumed that the lengths of successive wet and dry sequences are independent. For this process the distribution of the number of wet days in -day intervals is calculated. The model is fitted to 50-year rainfall data from Wroclaw, Poland. Rainfall amounts of 0.1, 1.0 and 2.0 mm are considered as thresholds defining a wet day. To estimate the distribution of the length of wet and dry sequences the family of Pascal distribution is chosen.  相似文献   

Evaluation of rainfall-runoff performance using the stochastic integral equation method     

T. V. Hromadka  R. H. McCuen 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1989,3(3):217-226

The stochastic integral equation method (S.I.E.M.) is used to evaluate the relative performance of a set of both calibrated and uncalibrated rainfall-runoff models with respect to prediction errors. The S.I.E.M. is also used to estimate confidence (prediction) interval values of a runoff criterion variable, given a prescribed rainfall-runoff model, and a similarity measure used to condition the storms that are utilized for model calibration purposes.Because of the increasing attention given to the issue of uncertainty in rainfall-runoff modeling estimates, the S.I.E.M. provides a promising tool for the hydrologist to consider in both research and design.  相似文献