多维联合概率理论对三峡工程设计洪水的计算   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

逯义军  刘德辅  谢波涛  姜云鹏 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2007,37(3):497-502,496

首次将多维联合概率理论应用到三峡大坝设计洪水的风险分析,并用随机模拟方法(ISPUD)对四维联合概率分布进行了求解,得出在长江上游干流及主要支流来水量出现的不同组合和最不利组合情况下,相应三峡大坝不同联合重现期的设计洪水。可用于三峡工程的风险分析及防洪调度。  相似文献   

Separating species using a horizontal panel in the Scottish North Sea whitefish trawl fishery     

Ferro  R. S. T.; Jones  E. G.; Kynoch  R. J.; Fryer  R. J.; Buckett  B-E. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2007,64(8):1543-1550

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Structural modeling and testing of a concrete canoe     

F. Paradis  G. Gendron 《Ocean Engineering》2007,34(1):206-217

A finite element model is set up and experimental tests are performed to help understand the behavior of a concrete canoe and subsequently optimize its design. First, the performance criteria that must be satisfied to participate at the annual ASCE/Master Builders competition are described. Then, the finite element model and the different loading cases that were studied are presented. Results from these loading cases are discussed and used to optimize the material properties as well as the thickness of the hull and the dimensions of the gunwale and reinforcing ribs. Static and dynamic experimental tests were also conducted to validate the results of the finite element analyses. The results indicate that the main stresses and strains are caused by the static load cases. The additional stresses caused during races are small.  相似文献   

Long-term changes in the fish community structure from the Tsushima warm current region of the Japan/East Sea with an emphasis on the impacts of fishing and climate regime shift over the last four decades     

Yongjun Tian  Hideaki Kidokoro  Tatsuro Watanabe 《Progress in Oceanography》2006,68(2-4):217

Japanese fisheries production in the Japan/East Sea between 1958 and 2003 increased to their peak (1.76 million tons) in the late 1980s and decreased abruptly with the collapse of Japanese sardine. Catch results for 58 fisheries and various environmental time-series data sets and community indices, including mean trophic level (MTL) and Simpson’s diversity index (DI), were used to investigate the impacts of fishing and climate changes on the structure of the fish community in the Tsushima warm current (TWC) region of the Japan/East Sea. The long-term trend in fisheries production was largely dependent on the Japanese sardine that, as a single species, contributed up to 60% of the total production in the Japanese waters of the Japan/East Sea during the late 1980s. Excluding Japanese sardine, production of the small pelagic species was higher during 1960s and 1990s but lower during 1970s and 1980s. This variation pattern generally corresponds with the trend in water temperature, warmer before early 1960s and after 1990s but colder during 1970s and 1980s. The warm-water, large predatory fishes and cold water demersal species show opposite responses to the water temperature in the TWC region, indicating the significant impact of oceanic conditions on fisheries production of the Japan/East Sea. Declines in demersal fishes and invertebrates during 1970s and 1980s suggested some impact of fishing. MTL and DI show a similar variation pattern: higher during 1960s and 1990s but lower during 1970s and 1980s. In particular, the sharp decline during the 1980s resulted from the abundant sardine catches, suggesting that dominant species have a large effect on the structure of the fish community in the Japan/East Sea. Principal component analysis for 58 time-series data sets of fisheries catches suggested that the fish community varied on inter-annual to inter-decadal scales; the abrupt changes that occurred in the mid-1970s and late 1980s seemed to correspond closely with the climatic regime shifts in the North Pacific. These results strongly suggest that the structure of the fish community in the Japan/East Sea was largely affected by climatic and oceanic regime shifts rather than by fishing. There is no evidence showing “fishing down food webs” in the Japan/East Sea. However, in addition to the impacts of abrupt shifts that occurred in the late 1980s, the large predatory and demersal fishes seem to be facing stronger fishing pressure with the collapse of the Japanese sardine.  相似文献   

Are Global Tide Gauge Data Stationary in Variance?     

H. B  kiiz  H. M. Ng 《Marine Geodesy》2005,28(3):209-217

Tide gauges distributed all over the world provide valuable information for monitoring mean sea level changes. The statistical models used in estimating sea level change from the tide gauge data assume implicitly that the random model components are stationary in variance. We show that for a large number of global tide gauge data this is not the case for the seasonal part using a variate-differencing algorithm. This finding is important for assessing the reliability of the present estimates of mean sea level changes because nonstationarity of the data may have marked impact on the sea level rate estimates, especially, for the data from short records.  相似文献   

九龙江口北岸的叠置贝壳堤与晚全新世的海面波动     

郑晓云 《海洋科学》1990,14(3):17-21

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进入渤海的热带气旋路径特点分析     

张晓慧  卢霞  陈金龙 《海洋预报》2003,20(4):1-4

热带气旋是夏季影响渤海的灾害性天气系统之一。其影响路径主要有三类，各类路径在影响时前期中高纬500hPa高空环流形势及夏季西太平洋副热带高压特征指数有显著差异。  相似文献   

杭州湾乍浦断面潮流分布特征   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

羊天柱  张俊彪  施伟勇 《海洋学研究》2002,20(4):1-7

根据2000年9月在杭州湾乍浦断面设置的8个潮流同步观测站的资料,对该断面潮流分布特征进行了分析和探讨,结果表明:该断面大潮涨急时呈现两个大流速核;断面南部的流速要比北部的大,涨潮流速大于落潮流速。这对了解杭州湾水文特征有着一定意义,同时为杭州湾跨海大桥的设计建设提供参考。  相似文献   

风力对内陆浅水水域磷水平的影响   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李德尚  焦念志 《海洋湖沼通报》1991,(1):35-40

本文通过对平度市大泽山水库(面积约0.5平方公里,平均水深约1.5米)的实地观测,研究了风力对内陆浅水水域磷水平的影响。结果表明,影响程度取决于风速、风力作用时间、水深以及风力作用前磷水平的高低等因素。就大泽山水库而言,风速大于2.5米/秒的风力可引起各种形态磷的明显增加。不过对磷酸盐磷来说,如果浓度本来就较高,风力作用下当有大量沉积物颗粒泛起时,会对PO_4~≡产生吸附,因而可能导致水中游离磷酸盐磷含量下降。鉴于此,作者建议对内陆浅水水域进行磷水平调查时应考虑风力的作用。  相似文献   

1998年长江巨洪与厄尔尼诺事件     

冯利华  张强 《海洋学研究》2001,19(4):13-16

1997～ 1 998年出现了 2 0世纪中最强的一次厄尔尼诺事件。根据长江洪水与厄尔尼诺事件的实测资料 ,指出 1 998年的长江巨洪与这次厄尔尼诺事件具有较密切的关系。同时讨论了厄尔尼诺事件影响长江洪水的物理途径 ,这对长江巨洪的长期及超长期预报具有较重要的指示作用  相似文献