Space-time mapping of soil salinity using probabilistic bayesian maximum entropy     

A. Douaik  M. van Meirvenne  T. Tóth  M. Serre 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2004,18(4):219-227

The mapping of saline soils is the first task before any reclamation effort. Reclamation is based on the knowledge of soil salinity in space and how it evolves with time. Soil salinity is traditionally determined by soil sampling and laboratory analysis. Recently, it became possible to complement these hard data with soft secondary data made available using field sensors like electrode probes. In this study, we had two data sets. The first includes measurements of field salinity (EC_a) at 413 locations and 19 time instants. The second, which is a subset of the first (13 to 20 locations), contains, in addition to EC_a, salinity determined in the laboratory (EC_2.5). Based on a procedure of cross-validation, we compared the prediction performance in the space-time domain of 3 methods: kriging using either only hard data (HK) or hard and mid interval soft data (HMIK), and Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) using probabilistic soft data. We found that BME was less biased, more accurate and giving estimates, which were better correlated with the observed values than the two kriging techniques. In addition, BME allowed one to delineate with better detail saline from non-saline areas.  相似文献   

沈阳近百年的温度变化特征及其环流形势分析   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：7       下载免费PDF全文

周小珊  李辑  杨森  周广胜 《气象科学》2004,24(4):424-431

沈阳地处全球温度变化的敏感带，在近百年的温度观测记录中，沈阳的温度变化呈逐渐上升之势，近百年增高约1．7℃，这种上升趋势在冬季远比夏季明显。沈阳的年平均温度变化有一个12a的周期，各周期温度基本呈阶梯状上升，20世纪末的周期冬季平均温度比世纪初的周期升温2．8℃左右。从近50a的极端温度的变化趋势来看，极端最低温度明显升高，而极端最高温度并没有上升，变化趋势甚至略下降，以致冬、夏两季温差缩小。从沈阳的最低平均温度和最高平均温度变化来看，两者均随时间逐渐升高，说明沈阳市的增温不仅是最低温度升高造成的，最高温度的增温作用亦十分重要。从冬季环流形势分析来看，东亚大槽及其后弱脊和地面蒙古高压在上世纪80年代、90年代明显减弱，使得冷空气向南侵袭的径向气流减弱，是导致位于冷空气通道中的沈阳冬季增温明显的原因之一。  相似文献   

Beds comprising debrite sandwiched within co-genetic turbidite: origin and widespread occurrence in distal depositional environments   总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11  

P. J. Talling  L. A. Amy†  R. B. Wynn‡  J. Peakall†  M. Robinson 《Sedimentology》2004,51(1):163-194

Co‐genetic debrite–turbidite beds occur in a variety of modern and ancient turbidite systems. Their basic character is distinctive. An ungraded muddy sandstone interval is encased within mud‐poor graded sandstone, siltstone and mudstone. The muddy sandstone interval preserves evidence of en masse deposition and is thus termed a debrite. The mud‐poor sandstone, siltstone and mudstone show features indicating progressive layer‐by‐layer deposition and are thus called a turbidite. Palaeocurrent indicators, ubiquitous stratigraphic association and the position of hemipelagic intervals demonstrate that debrite and enclosing turbidite originate in the same event. Detailed field observations are presented for co‐genetic debrite–turbidite beds in three widespread sequences of variable age: the Miocene Marnoso Arenacea Formation in the Italian Apennines; the Silurian Aberystwyth Grits in Wales; and Quaternary deposits of the Agadir Basin, offshore Morocco. Deposition of these sequences occurred in similar unchannellized basin‐plain settings. Co‐genetic debrite–turbidite beds were deposited from longitudinally segregated flow events, comprising both debris flow and forerunning turbidity current. It is most likely that the debris flow was generated by relatively shallow (few tens of centimetres) erosion of mud‐rich sea‐floor sediment. Changes in the settling behaviour of sand grains from a muddy fluid as flows decelerated may also have contributed to debrite deposition. The association with distal settings results from the ubiquitous presence of muddy deposits in such locations, which may be eroded and disaggregated to form a cohesive debris flow. Debrite intervals may be extensive (> 26 × 10 km in the Marnoso Arenacea Formation) and are not restricted to basin margins. Such long debris flow run‐out on low‐gradient sea floor (< 0·1°) may simply be due to low yield strength (? 50 Pa) of the debris–water mixture. This study emphasizes that multiple flow types, and transformations between flow types, can occur within the distal parts of submarine flow events.  相似文献   

Optimisation de la quantification des flux de matière en suspension d'un cours d'eau alpin : l'Isère à Grenoble (France)     

Dominique Dumas 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2004,336(13):1149-1159

This study seeks to determine suspended-matter flux of the Isère at Grenoble, one of the most important rivers of the northern French Alps. Since 1994, and especially 1996, systematic samplings of the left bank make it possible to follow in one point the variations of suspended particles and matter (SPM) of this river. But from a single measurement, sometimes not very representative of the whole observable concentrations within the section, it remains still difficult to estimate precisely the SPM flux. The results of this study show in particular the successive appearance of several turbidity gradients, whose occurrence is explained mainly by the hydrological and hydro-sedimentary dynamics of this river. The estimate of these gradients thus makes it possible to extrapolate specific measurements more easily and consequently to daily define the quantities of suspended matter exported by the Isère. Since 1996, the results show a very high flow, specific of the Isère at Grenoble, variable between 124 and more than 460 t km^?2 yr^?1. To cite this article: D. Dumas, C. R. Geoscience 336 (2004).  相似文献   

用L-曲线法确定岭估计中的岭参数   总被引：15，自引：0，他引：15  

王振杰  欧吉坤 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2004,29(3):235-238

运用L 曲线法来确定岭估计中的岭参数 ,推导了用L 曲线法确定岭参数的基本公式 ,在此基础上实现了其算法 ,并用两个算例 ,比较了新方法和以往方法。结果表明 ,L 曲线法不仅容易收敛 ,而且其计算结果的精度较高  相似文献   

Discharge and suspended sediment dynamics during two jökulhlaups in the Skaftá river,Iceland     

Gareth H. Old  Damian M. Lawler  rni Snorrason 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2005,30(11):1441-1460

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Establishment of apparent quantum yield and maximum ecosystem assimilation on Tibetan Plateau alpine meadow ecosystem     

XU Lingling  ZHANG Xianzhou  SHI Peili  YU Guirui 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2005,48(Z1)

The alpine meadow is widely distributed on the Tibetan Plateau with an area of about 1.2×106kn2. Damxung County, located in the hinterland of the Tibetan Plateau, is the place covered with this typical vegetation. An open-path eddy covariance system was set up in Damxung rangeland station to measure the carbon flux of alpine meadow from July to October,2003. The continuous carbon flux data were used to analyze the relationship between net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange (NEE) and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), as well as the seasonal patterns of apparent quantum yield (α) and maximum ecosystem assimilation (Pmax).Results showed that the daytime NEE fitted fairly well with the PAR in a rectangular hyperbola function, with α declining in the order of peak growth period (0.0244 μmolCO2 · μmol-1pAR) ＞early growth period ＞ seed maturing period ＞ withering period (0.0098 μmolCO2 · μmol-1pAR).The Pmax did not change greatly during the first three periods, with an average of 0.433mgCO2· m-2· s-1, i.e. 9.829 μmolCO2· m-2· s-1. However, during the withering period, Pmax was only 0.35 mgCO2 · m-2 · s-1, i.e. 7.945 μmolCO2 · m-2 · s-1. Compared with other grassland ecosystems, the α of the Tibetan Plateau alpine meadow ecosystem was much lower.  相似文献   

Modeling the influence of settling velocity on cohesive sediment transport in Tanshui River estuary     

Wen−Cheng Liu 《Environmental Geology》2005,47(4):535-546

Settling velocities of suspended cohesive sediment in estuaries vary over a range of several orders in magnitude. Variations in the suspended sediment concentration are often considered as the principal cause. Turbulence and the suspended sediment concentration, as well as other factors such as salinity, dissolved organic substances, flocculation ability, and the rate of floc growth affect setting velocities. A laterally–averaged finite difference model for hydrodynamics and cohesive sediment transport is developed and applied in the Tanshui River estuary, Taiwan. The model has been calibrated and verified with water surface elevation, longitudinal velocity, salinity, and cohesive sediment measured. The overall performance of the model is in qualitative agreement with the available data. The model is used to investigate the influence of settling velocity on cohesive sediment transport dynamics. The simulation indicates that the turbidity maximum zone is near Kuan–Du. When settling velocities increase the surface cohesive sediment concentration at Kuan–Du station trends to decrease and bottom cohesive sediment concentration increases. Both surface and bottom cohesive sediment concentrations decrease at Taipei Bridge and Pa–Ling Bridge. This implies that suspended sediment advected seaward and deposited. There is consequently a net seaward flux of suspended sediment near surface, and a net landward flux near the bed.  相似文献   

A nonstationary extreme value distribution for analysing the cessation of karst spring discharge          下载免费PDF全文

Yan Liu  Yonghong Hao  Yonghui Fan  Tongke Wang  Xueli Huo  Youcun Liu  Tian‐Chyi J. Yeh 《水文研究》2014,28(20):5251-5258

The effects of climate change and population growth in recent decades are leading us to consider their combined and potentially extreme consequences, particularly regarding hydrological processes, which can be modeled using a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Most of the GEV models were based on a stationary assumption for hydrological processes, in contrast to the nonstationary reality due to climate change and human activities. In this paper, we present the nonstationary generalized extreme value (NSGEV) distribution and use it to investigate the risk of Niangziguan Springs discharge decreasing to zero. Rather than assuming the location, scale, and shape parameters to be constant as one might do for a stationary GEV distribution analysis, the NSGEV approach can reflect the dynamic processes by defining the GEV parameters as functions of time. Because most of the GEV model is designed to evaluate maxima (e.g. flooding, represented by positive numbers), and spring discharge cessation is a ?minima’, we deduced an NSGEV model for minima by applying opposite numbers, i.e. negative instead of positive numbers. The results of the model application to Niangziguan Springs showed that the probability of zero discharge at Niangziguan Springs will be 1/80 in 2025, and 1/10 in 2030. After 2025, the rate of decrease in spring discharge will accelerate, and the probability that Niangziguan Springs will cease flowing will dramatically increase. The NSGEV model is a robust method for analysing karst spring discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

中国九龙江河口营养盐基准值研究     

刘保莉  曹文志  黄铮  陈文慧  陈辉煌  刘录三 《海洋学报(英文版)》2018,37(2):1-13

One of the key concerns in estuarine and coastal environments is eutrophication, which is known to be closely connected to nutrient enrichment. To control and improve surface water quality, nutrient criteria are recommended in order to provide reference conditions for the environment. However, the current datasets of nutrient criteria in China are either designed for surface water or sea water, and as such these are not suitable for assessing estuarine water quality, especially given the unique ecosystem and dynamic properties of estuaries. To address this issue in current estuarine water management, nutrient criteria have been developed for a local estuary in the southeast of China. Segmentation of the Jiulong River Estuary, China was firstly analysed through field investigations carried out during 2013–2014, which resulted in the delineation of three segments characterized by their distinct properties in relation to salinity, hydrology, ecosystems, etc. Historical records from 1997 to 2014 were then analysed using statistical modelling to develop candidate nutrient criteria for the estuary.This stage of the analysis was undertaken in combination with the study of nutrient status records from the 1980s,which were used to establish a baseline reference condition. The recommended criteria values of dissolved inorganic nitrogen(DIN) in Segments Ⅰ, Ⅱ and Ⅲ of the Jiulong River Estuary are 64, 21 and 14 μmol/L,respectively, and the corresponding values for soluble reactive phosphorus(SRP) are 0.89, 0.76 and 0.89 μmol/L,respectively. It should be emphasised that these values are site-dependent, and that different results may be achieved at other locations depending on the physical and biogeochemical characteristics of an estuary, or even a single site within a catchment. It is hoped that by demonstrating a possible methodological approach and methods of nutrient criteria derivation in the Jiulong River Estuary, the current study will offer researchers some fundamental basis from which to begin to develop more complete nutrient criteria indices for the study of nutrient conditions in other estuaries throughout China.  相似文献