一次暴雨过程多普勒天气雷达风场资料分析   总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

俞莲芬  陈大任  张代平 《气象》1997,23(2):25-28

通过对１９９御７月１４日的大－暴雨天气过程所获取的３８２４多普勒天气雷达平均径向风场资料的分析，发现边界层急流与较强的降水相伴。表明多普勒天气雷达对中小尺度天气系统和灾害性天气预报有预警作用。  相似文献   

台风路径及闽南台风天气预报业务系统          下载免费PDF全文

何歆  林伙海 《气象》1997,23(9):17-20

该文应用ＨＵＲＲＡＮ相似台风路径预报方法，引进５００ｈＰａ天气形势，提高了台风咱径预报能力；应用天气学方法、物理量诊断和预报员的丰富实践经验，以及卫星云图上的台风云系特征，研制台风影响下的闽南台风天气（大风、暴雨）预报专家系统，得出定量、客观的预报结论。该系统运行所需的资料易于获取，从采集资料到输出预报结果，１０分钟便可完成，大大缩短了制作台风预报的时间。  相似文献   

数字滤波方法在月尺度数值预报中的应用：II.保留不同低频过程的效果比较          下载免费PDF全文

杨燕  纪立人 《大气科学》1997,21(5):533-534

用数字滤波方法对观测资料序列进行处理，得到初始场用于Ｔ４２Ｌ９全球谱模式的月预报，以去除误差增长较快的高频扰动对低频过程的影响，并且利用多时刻的观测资料提取低频过程的信息。对冬季和夏季两个不同个例进行了实例，并比较了取不同长度的观测序列，截取不同周期的过程作为初值对预报效果的影响。结果说明，经过滤波后对低频分量和平均场的预报都有显著的改进。而且对于较长时效的预报，应保留更低频的过程（比如１０ｄ以上  相似文献   

国外中期数值预报业务模式的性能及发展趋势   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

杨学胜 《气象》1997,23(1):3-10

作者简单介绍了国内预报员较为熟悉的欧洲中期天气预报中心，美国国家气象中心和日本气象厅三个中期预报模式的性能及预报效果，包括近几年颇为流行的半拉格朗日时间积分方案，物理过程参数化方案的完善和改进，中期数值预报业务模式的发展趋势等。  相似文献   

Multivariate nonparametric resampling scheme for generation of daily weather variables     

B. Rajagopalan  U. Lall  D. G. Tarboton  D. S. Bowles 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1997,11(1):65-93

A nonparametric resampling technique for generating daily weather variables at a site is presented. The method samples the original data with replacement while smoothing the empirical conditional distribution function. The technique can be thought of as a smoothed conditional Bootstrap and is equivalent to simulation from a kernel density estimate of the multivariate conditional probability density function. This improves on the classical Bootstrap technique by generating values that have not occurred exactly in the original sample and by alleviating the reproduction of fine spurious details in the data. Precipitation is generated from the nonparametric wet/dry spell model as described in Lall et al. [1995]. A vector of other variables (solar radiation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, average dew point temperature, and average wind speed) is then simulated by conditioning on the vector of these variables on the preceding day and the precipitation amount on the day of interest. An application of the resampling scheme with 30 years of daily weather data at Salt Lake City, Utah, USA, is provided.  相似文献   

季节性冻结滞水促滑效应——滑坡发育的一种新因素   总被引：12，自引：4，他引：12  

吴玮江 《冰川冻土》1997,19(4):359-365

在综合分析西北季节性冻土地区滑坡发生时间规律和危险斜坡变形动态规律的基础上，提出季节性冻融作用产生的冻结滞水效应可使斜坡区地下水富集，土体软化范围扩大瞌 水压力增大，是本区滑坡发育的一种重要外动力因素，并对其作用机理和发生条件进行了论述。  相似文献   

土体冻结过程中的盐分场研究     

邴慧  何平  杨成松 《冰川冻土》2004,26(Z1):44-49

As to salty soil, salt migrates with water in freezing soils, assembles and crystallizes continuously. Consequently the swelling of the soil volume leads to the phenomenon of salt heaving. It has a practical significance for solving salt-heaving and frost-heaving damage in engineering to deepen the understanding of salt heaving mechanism. In this paper a general overview about new research results at this aspect was presented. And then the study of salt migration and salt heaving mechanism and present salt heaving models were summarized. For further researching the field of salt transfer it is urgent to continually strengthen the salt migration and the numerical simulation study of salt heaving mechanism to expect perfecting the general evaluation of salt heaving prediction models so as to have a better service for engineering.  相似文献   

类石材料--灰泥的冻融过程     

Takashi Ono 《冰川冻土》2004,26(Z1):64-69

Serious failure on the slope of rock ground can be caused by a cyclic action of freezing and thawing in the cold regions. The frost susceptibility and the effect of freezing and thawing onthe rock material, however, have not been well investigated. In order to find out the freezing effect on the rock materials, mortar specimens are frozen as a pseudo-rock material under the constant rate of freezing by means of controlling the temperature of both ends of specimen. The freezing process is given one-dimensionally to the cylindrical samples in the laboratory to simulate the in-situ freezing phenomena in the natural ground. Formation of ice lens, frost heave and water intake during freezing process are observed on the mortar specimen under constant freezing rate, which probably causes cracks or large deformation in the real rock ground. The values of the velocity of elastic wave propagation are compared before and after freezing process to estimate the degree of weathering due to freezing and thawing.  相似文献   

云南省Internet网络天气预报会商系统   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

黄玮  李蒙  王月庆  陈坚  王灵 《气象》2004,30(10):52-55

云南省基于Internet网络的天气预报会商系统覆盖云南省、地 (州 )、县三级。系统采用了Internet网络技术、数据库技术 ,实现了省、地 (州 )、县天气预报发布及浏览查询、预报讨论BBS、天气预报会商室、系统管理 ,在线短消息互发等功能。  相似文献   

基于MICAPS系统的数字化天气图及常规气象资料检索分析系统   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

王遂缠吉慧敏  孙林花 《气象科技》2004,32(2):120-122

介绍了基于“9210工程”和MICAPS系统的资料自动存储、整理、检索和历史天气图分析业务系统——基于MICAPS系统的数字化天气图及常规气象资料检索分析系统，较全面地介绍了该系统高度自动化、设计友好的功能和在业务中的应用。  相似文献