Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Experiment Based on Basic NWP Variables Using Deep Learning     

Kanghui ZHOU  Jisong SUN  Yongguang ZHENG  Yutao ZHANG 《大气科学进展》2022,39(9):1472-1486

The quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) performance by numerical weather prediction (NWP) methods depends fundamentally on the adopted physical parameterization schemes (PS). However, due to the complexity of the physical mechanisms of precipitation processes, the uncertainties of PSs result in a lower QPF performance than their prediction of the basic meteorological variables such as air temperature, wind, geopotential height, and humidity. This study proposes a deep learning model named QPFNet, which uses basic meteorological variables in the ERA5 dataset by fitting a non-linear mapping relationship between the basic variables and precipitation. Basic variables forecasted by the highest-resolution model (HRES) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) were fed into QPFNet to forecast precipitation. Evaluation results show that QPFNet achieved better QPF performance than ECMWF HRES itself. The threat score for 3-h accumulated precipitation with depths of 0.1, 3, 10, and 20 mm increased by 19.7%, 15.2%, 43.2%, and 87.1%, respectively, indicating the proposed performance QPFNet improved with increasing levels of precipitation. The sensitivities of these meteorological variables for QPF in different pressure layers were analyzed based on the output of the QPFNet, and its performance limitations are also discussed. Using DL to extract features from basic meteorological variables can provide an important reference for QPF, and avoid some uncertainties of PSs.  相似文献   

GIS数据分析中权重确定的粗集方法研究   总被引：5，自引：3，他引：2  

李雯静  毋河海 《测绘科学》2007,32(1):70-72

介绍了粗集方法的基本概念,将其中的属性重要性与GIS中常用的权重分析相结合,提出了基于粗集分类思想在GIS数据分析的权重确定中的应用方法。与传统的多因子分析中的权重确定方法相比,该方法是一种基于数据自适应的方法,不需要人为干预,具有智能高效等优点。  相似文献   

改进的AHP结合BP神经预测煤与瓦斯突出     

周西华  郭坤  白刚  宋东平 《物探化探计算技术》2019,(1):121-127

为对煤与瓦斯突出进行准确预测,结合重要性指标筛选以及改进的层次分析法,对权重值进行研究,并进行排序。通过筛选重要性指标,选定其中具有突出影响的指标。结果表明,对此造成影响的因素权重分别为地质构造、地应力、瓦斯压力、放散初速度。未经筛选的BP神经网络的实际值与预测值的平均相对误差为3.44%,而通过筛选后选定的指标,实际值与预测值的平均相对误差为1.82%,训练速度、精度优于未经筛选指标的预测。可为防突措施的奠定理论基础,对煤矿安全生产工作具有借鉴作用。  相似文献   

中美欧水平地震作用的比较     

卢华喜  梁平英  杨峻  仇早生 《世界地震工程》2010,26(1)

分析了中美欧抗震设计中的水平地震作用问题。首先,比较了中美欧抗震规范中建筑物重要性、强度折减系数的差异,介绍了中国规范的底部剪力法、美国规范的等效侧向荷载法以及欧洲规范的侧向荷载法。然后对一多层框架结构,分别作为办公楼和医院,计算了不同设防烈度下、不同延性等级下的水平地震作用,并进行了比较分析,获得了3种规范关于水平地震作用的一些差异。  相似文献   

Bayesian Modeling and Inference for Geometrically Anisotropic Spatial Data   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Mark D. Ecker  Alan E. Gelfand 《Mathematical Geology》1999,31(1):67-83

A geometrically anisotropic spatial process can be viewed as being a linear transformation of an isotropic spatial process. Customary semivariogram estimation techniques often involve ad hoc selection of the linear transformation to reduce the region to isotropy and then fitting a valid parametric semivariogram to the data under the transformed coordinates. We propose a Bayesian methodology which simultaneously estimates the linear transformation and the other semivariogram parameters. In addition, the Bayesian paradigm allows full inference for any characteristic of the geometrically anisotropic model rather than merely providing a point estimate. Our work is motivated by a dataset of scallop catches in the Atlantic Ocean in 1990 and also in 1993. The 1990 data provide useful prior information about the nature of the anisotropy of the process. Exploratory data analysis (EDA) techniques such as directional empirical semivariograms and the rose diagram are widely used by practitioners. We recommend a suitable contour plot to detect departures from isotropy. We then present a fully Bayesian analysis of the 1993 scallop data, demonstrating the range of inferential possibilities.  相似文献   

加强钻孔灌注桩的技术、质量和成本分析管理的重要性     

陈迹  陈宝义 《吉林地质》2000,19(1):76-78

钻孔灌注桩施工的技术、质量和成本分析,就是为降低成本而做的许多具体工作.这些具体工作的内容和形式多种多样,本文针对一些重要的问题进行探讨.  相似文献   

天龙山旅游开发对植被的影响   总被引：33，自引：0，他引：33  

程占红  张金屯 《地理科学》2000,20(2):144-147

以天龙山为例,采用敏感水平、群落景凤重要值、物种多样性信息指数、旅游影响系数和伴人植物比例５项指标,对区植被与旅游的关系进行了分析。结果表明：敏感水平与群落景观重要值和信息指数基本上成反比关系;旅游影响系数与伴人植物比例大小成正比,客观揭示了旅游对西影响的规律性。利用这一方法评价旅游对植被的影响,具有可行性。  相似文献   

两小型浅水湖泊水体叶绿素a浓度的季节变化及与理化因子和生物因子的关系   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

温新利  冯若楠  张根  薛颖昊  席贻龙 《湖泊科学》2017,29(6):1421-1432

为探讨非生物因子和生物因子对水体叶绿素a(Chl.a)浓度变动的相对重要性,对芜湖市内的汀棠湖(每半月1次)和镜湖(每4天或7天1次)进行高频采样,分析理化因子及浮游动物密度与Chl.a浓度间的关系.结果表明,从全年来看,2个湖泊的Chl.a浓度均与水温和透明度间分别呈现显著的正相关性和负相关性,与浮游动物密度均无显著相关性;镜湖Chl.a浓度随着总磷浓度和氮磷比的增加分别呈上升和降低趋势.从季节来看,冬季两湖中的Chl.a浓度最低,轮虫密度与此阶段镜湖中藻类Chl.a总浓度和小型藻类的Chl.a浓度间均呈显著负相关,且其对上述两类Chl.a浓度变动的影响程度最大,表明轮虫对藻类的牧食效应降低了冬季镜湖中的Chl.a浓度.从各环境因子对Chl.a浓度变动影响的相对权重来看,除了冬季的镜湖外,2个湖泊中的两类Chl.a浓度均与透明度的关系最密切,且均随着透明度的上升而降低,暗示了透明度可作为预测小型封闭性浅水湖泊中Chl.a浓度的简便指标.  相似文献   

结构抗震鲁棒性分析方法研究          下载免费PDF全文

包超  杜永峰  刘勇  徐天妮  王国福 《地震工程学报》2015,37(3):660-666

结合侧向增量连续倒塌过程中框架结构受力特征来研究结构抗震鲁棒性,提出其定量计算方法,通过对钢筋混凝土框架结构有限元模型的对比分析进行验证。研究表明:结构鲁棒性强弱是一个相对概念,虽然无法设计和建造出绝对鲁棒的结构,但可以通过定量分析结构鲁棒性进行建筑选型和结构布置方案优化;降低重要构件的易损性系数能够增强结构抗震鲁棒性,合理增加构件数量,同时加强其相互联系的有效性并保证备用荷载路径的可靠性,能够提高整体结构的鲁棒性;在同样荷载作用下,随着所承担荷载的不同,框架柱易损性系数按照大小排序依次为中柱、边柱和角柱,而由于备用荷载路径分布和传递荷载的机制不同,框架柱重要性按照大小排序则依次为角柱、边柱和中柱,对易损性系数和重要性系数均较大的构件设置可靠保护或增加荷载传递路径都能够提高整体结构抗连续倒塌的鲁棒性;提高结构冗余度,增强构件相互联系,可以降低结构中初始失效所造成的不利影响。  相似文献   

Roles of horizontal and vertical tree canopy structure in mitigating daytime and nighttime urban heat island effects     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2020

The urban heat island (UHI) is increasingly recognized as a serious, worldwide problem because of urbanization and climate change. Urban vegetation is capable of alleviating UHI and improving urban environment by shading together with evapotranspiration. While the impacts of abundance and spatial configuration of vegetation on land surface temperature (LST) have been widely examined, very little attention has been paid to the role of vertical structure of vegetation in regulating LST. In this study, we investigated the relationships between horizontal/vertical structure characteristics of urban tree canopy and LST as well as diurnal divergence in Nanjing City, China, with the help of high resolution vegetation map, Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data and various statistical analysis methods. The results indicated that composition, configuration and vertical structure of tree canopy were all significantly related to both daytime LST and nighttime LST. Tree canopy showed stronger influence on LST during the day than at night. Note that the contribution of composition of tree canopy to explaining spatial heterogeneity of LST, regardless of day and night, was the highest, followed by vertical structure and configuration. Combining composition, configuration and vertical structure of tree canopy can take advantage of their respective advantages, and best explain variation in both daytime LST and nighttime LST. As for the independent importance of factors affecting spatial variation of LST, percent cover of tree canopy (PLAND), mean tree canopy height (TH_Mean), amplitude of tree canopy height (TA) and patch cohesion index (COHESION) were the most influential during the day, while the most important variables were PLAND, maximum height of tree canopy (TH_Max), variance of tree canopy height (TH_SD) and COHESION at night. This research extends our understanding of the impacts of urban trees on the UHI effect from the horizontal to three-dimensional space. In addition, it may offer sustainable and effective strategies for urban designers and planners to cope with increasing temperature.  相似文献