汕头市PM2.5的气象要素影响分析及预报研究     

杜勤博  吴晓燕  郑素帆  李玥莹  陈欢欢  张宇烽 《气象与环境学报》2019,35(5):70-77

利用2014—2017年汕头市PM_2.5的日浓度资料、以及汕头市国家基准气象观测站的同期地面气象资料,重点分析了汕头市PM_2.5浓度的变化特征以及风、混合层厚度、降水等气象条件对PM_2.5浓度的影响,同时探讨了污染物浓度变化的成因。在此基础上,根据汕头市的气候特点,采用BP （Back-Propagation）人工神经网络方法针对汛期和非汛期分别建立了PM_2.5质量浓度预报模型。结果表明：与多数内陆城市不同,汕头市PM_2.5浓度日变化为单峰型,这与汕头地处沿海受海陆风影响有关;PM_2.5浓度日峰值出现在08时左右,除早高峰污染物排放增加的因素外,与早晨时段的低风速环境有关;PM_2.5日均浓度随着风速的增大呈现减小趋势,PM_2.5日均浓度与08时混合层厚度显著相关（相关系数为-0.143）;汕头市非汛期PM_2.5浓度比汛期高,这与汕头市的亚热带季风气候特征有关,汛期各量级降水（暴雨以上除外）对PM_2.5的清除效果无明显差别,而非汛期降水对PM_2.5浓度有明显清除作用;BP人工神经网络模型的预报效果表明,汛期和非汛期的PM_2.5级别命中率TS分别为100%和90.3%,准确指数分别为87.7%和89.9%,总体预报效果良好。不同时期预报模型出现正误差的数量和程度均大于负误差,汛期预报模型在有强降水发生时误差较大,而非汛期预报模型在有冷空气入侵时误差较大。  相似文献   

Indian Ocean Dipole-related Predictability Barriers Induced by Initial Errors in the Tropical Indian Ocean in a CGCM     

Rong FENG  Wansuo DUAN 《大气科学进展》2019,36(6):658-668

利用GFDL CM2p1模式, 本文探讨了初始海温误差对印度洋偶极子(IOD)事件可预报性的影响. 当热带印度洋存在初始海温误差时, IOD预报发生了冬季预报障碍(WPB)现象和夏季预报障碍(SPB)现象. WPB发生与否与正IOD事件发展位相冬季的厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)有关. 即当冬季存在ENSO时, IOD预测不发生WPB现象, 反之亦然. 相比之下, SPB发生与否和ENSO没有必然联系. 此外, 进一步探讨了最容易导致SPB现象的初始海温误差的主要模态, 指出该模态在热带印度洋上表现为东-西偶极子型, 这和前人研究中最容易导致WPB现象的初始海温误差模态相似. 当在热带印度洋上叠加这些初始海温误差后, 热带太平洋上出现了海表温度异常和风场异常, 进而通过大气桥和印尼贯穿流的作用影响热带印度洋, 使之在夏季出现了东-西偶极子型的海表温度异常, 该异常在Bjerknes作用下快速发展, 加强, 最终导致SPB现象的发生.  相似文献   

A note on the consolidation settlement of a rigid circular foundation on a poroelastic halfspace          下载免费PDF全文

Jueun Kim  A.P.S. Selvadurai 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2016,40(14):2003-2016

This paper uses Biot's poroelasticity approach to examine the consolidation behaviour of a rigid foundation with a frictionless base in contact with a poroelastic halfspace. The mathematical development of the mixed boundary value problem involves a set of dual integral equations in the Laplace transform domain which cannot be conveniently solved by employing conventional procedures. In this paper, a numerical solution is developed using a scheme where the contact normal stress is approximated by a discretized equivalent. The influence of limiting drainage boundary conditions at the entire surface of the halfspace on the degree of consolidation of the rigid circular foundation is investigated. The results obtained in this study are compared with the corresponding results given in the literature. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

One‐dimensional dynamics of saturated incompressible porous media: analytical solutions and influence of inertia terms          下载免费PDF全文

Yunpeng Zhang  Dorival M. Pedroso  Wolfgang Ehlers 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2016,40(18):2489-2513

The complexity of formulations for the hydromechanical coupled mechanics of porous media is typically minimised by simplifying assumptions such as neglecting the effect of inertia terms. For example, three formulations commonly employed to model practical problems are classified as fully dynamic, simplified dynamic and quasi‐static. Thus, depending on the porous media conditions, each formulation will have advantages and limitations. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of these limitations when solving one‐dimensional fully saturated porous media problems in addition to a new solution that considers a more general loading situation. A phase diagram is developed to assist on the selection of which formulation is more appropriate and convenient regarding particular cases of porosity and hydraulic conductivity values. Non‐dimensional formulations are proposed to achieve this goal. Results using the analytical solutions are compared against numerical values obtained with the finite element method, and the effect of porosity is investigated. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

长江倒灌鄱阳湖原因及发生条件的量化指标   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

王志寰  朱立俊  王建中  范红霞  陈槐  刘贝贝 《水科学进展》1990,31(2):203-213

江湖倒灌对鄱阳湖流域水动力变化和流域水环境保护等方面有重要影响,正确认识江湖倒灌原因和倒灌发生条件对明晰江湖倒灌作用机理、研究倒灌强度和倒灌影响范围等方面具有重要意义。在剖析江湖倒灌原因的基础上,从非恒定流洪水波传播的角度出发,结合鄱阳湖为"河相"、"湖相"时江湖倒灌的特点,提出了长江作用强度指标和鄱阳湖作用强度指标,在此基础上引入江湖作用综合强度函数,依据实测资料,分析研究了江湖作用综合强度函数的关系表达式、江湖倒灌发生条件及量化指标。经验证,所提出的江水倒灌量化指标可区分江湖顶托和江湖倒灌现象,可实现对鄱阳湖为"河相"、"湖相"时的江湖倒灌预测,且提高了预测江湖倒灌起止时间、总历时和年内发生次数的准确率,成果可用于江湖关系研究和鄱阳湖流域水资源综合利用工程实践中。  相似文献   

原始数据误差对放样点精度影响的探讨   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

孔祥元 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》1988,(2)

本文在文献[3]的基础上,进一步探讨了工程测量中原始数据误差对放样点精度影响的问题。首先,讨论了施工控制网中原始数据误差存在的形式、特点以及它们对放样点精度影响的传播规律,并建立了关于相对放样点位精度的矩阵公式。在此基础上,对现有的几种常用放样方法中原始数据误差的影响进行了分析和计算。结果表明,在施工放样测量工作中,应该密切注视原始数据误差的影响,并对此问题提出一些合理的建议。  相似文献   

Theoretical background for the inversion of seismic waveforms including elasticity and attenuation   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Albert Tarantola 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1988,128(1-2):365-399

To account for elastic and attenuating effects in the elastic wave equation, the stress-strain relationship can be defined through a general, anisotropic, causal relaxation function ^ijkl (x, ). Then, the wave equation operator is not necessarily symmetric (self-adjoint), but the reciprocity property is still satisfied. The representation theorem contains a term proportional to the history of strain. The dual problem consists of solving the wave equation withfinal time conditions and an anti-causal relaxation function. The problem of interpretation of seismic waveforms can be set as the nonlinear inverse problem of estimating the matter density (x) and all the functions ^ijkl (x, ). This inverse problem can be solved using iterative gradient methods, each iteration consisting of the propagation of the actual source in the current medium, with causal attenuation, the propagation of the residuals—acting as if they were sources—backwards in time, with anti-causal attenuation, and the correlation of the two wavefields thus obtained.  相似文献   

A simplified computational approach for prediction of transient climatic conditions in underground mine airways     

T. R. Roy 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》1993,11(1):15-23

Summary A simplified approach for prediction of transient climatic conditions in an underground airway os presented. The dry surface temperature of the airway is calculated using a finite difference scheme, whereas the wet surface temperature is determined following the concept of pseudo-base-temperature of air and using the value of thermal gradient at the dry surface as obtained from the finite difference solution of the temperature profile in the dry rock. The air-current temperatures are regularly evaluated after a suitable time span so as to simulate a real-case situation, and the re-evaluated air-current temperatures are used for further calculations. For increasing age of the airway the wet surface temperature obtained by the finite difference scheme, with an appropriate value of thermal diffusivity, is compared with its value determined by the pseudo-base-temperature approach.  相似文献   

利用原生岩浆定量反演原岩微量元素丰度的方法   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

杨晓松 《岩石矿物学杂志》1994,13(1):33-41

利用同源不同程度平衡部分熔融作用形成的两种原生岩浆岩的微量元素浓度，提出了一种定量反演原岩微量元素丰度的方法。反演前不需要做任何人为假设，为定量研究源区的微量元素地球化学提供了一个有力的手段。对汉诺坝新生代橄榄拉斑玄武岩和碱性玄武岩的成因及地幔源区特征作了讨论。反演结果显示本区地幔相对球粒陨石有过明显的ＲＥＥ富集过程，并且不同的ＲＥＥ富集程度存在显著的差异。  相似文献   

乾安县浅层高氟地下水的分布规律及成因的初步探讨     

诚俊华 《吉林地质》1991,10(1):71-74

本文主要阐述了乾安县浅层高氟地下水的分布规律;探讨了浅层高氟地下水的成因与构造、地貌、古气候、地层岩性和水文地质条件的关系,从而闸明了广泛分布的湖沼相松散沉积物的组成和水文地质条件是本区浅层高氟地下水的主要原因。  相似文献