Interannual Climate Variability of the Past Millennium from Simulations          下载免费PDF全文

YANG Kai-Qing  JIANG Da-Bang 《大气和海洋科学快报》2015,8(3):160-165

The interannual variability of global temperature and precipitation during the last millennium is analyzed using the results of ten coupled climate models participating in the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3. It is found that large temperature(precipitation) variability is most dominant at high latitudes(tropical monsoon regions), and the seasonal magnitudes are greater than the annual mean. Significant multi-decadal-scale changes exist throughout the whole period for the zonal mean of both temperature and precipitation variability, while their long-term trends are indistinctive. The volcanic forcings correlate well with the temperature variability at midlatitudes, indicating possible leading drivers for the interannual time scale climate change.  相似文献   

The Relationship between the Interdecadal Variation of Summer Precipitation and Its Interannual Variability over the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Valley          下载免费PDF全文

FU Yuan-Hai 《大气和海洋科学快报》2015,8(3)

The intensity of summer precipitation interannual variability is strongest over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley(MLYRV). The variability is larger than 1.5 mm d–1 and up to 35%–40% of the climatological mean summer precipitation. The relationship between the interdecadal change in the intensity of summer precipitation and its interannual variability over this area is investigated, by analyzing five gauged and re-constructed precipitation datasets. The relationship is found to be very weak over the MLYRV, with a correlation coefficient of only approximately 0.10. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation influences the western North Pacific subtropical high, which is responsible for the interdecadal change in summer precipitation over the MLYRV. However, the precipitation interannual variability is closely related to the ENSO events in the preceding winter due to its impact on the meridional displacement of the East Asian westerly jet. Different physical mechanisms cause different interdecadal variation in the intensity of summer precipitation and its interannual variability, and thus result in a poor relationship.  相似文献   

Recent advances in monsoon studies in China   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

XUE Feng  ZENG Qingcun  HUANG Ronghui  LI Chongyin  LU Riyu  ZHOU Tianjun 《大气科学进展》2015,32(2):206-229

This review provides a synopsis of the major progress that has been made in monsoon studies in China and to further bridge the gap between the Chinese and international meteorological community. It consists of seven major sections. After the introduction, the second section begins with the global monsoon systems and their seasonal variation, based on some new methods proposed in recent years. Besides, some major intraseasonal features of East Asian monsoon, including the onset of South China Sea summer monsoon are discussed. In the third section, we review the interactions between ENSO and the East Asian monsoon, focusing in particular on the results of Chinese meteorologists that indicate the influence of ENSO on the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) is obviously different from that on the tropical monsoon. Besides the tropical Pacific,other ocean basins, such as the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean, are also important to the East Asian monsoon, and this topic is discussed in the fourth section. In the fifth section, we address the role of land surface processes in East Asian monsoon. For example, we describe work that has shown more snow cover in spring on the Tibetan Plateau is followed by a weakened EASM and more summer rainfall in the Yangtze River valleys. The sixth section focuses on the influence of atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere(SH) on EASM, demonstrating how the signal from the SH is likely to provide new clues for the seasonal forecasting of summer rainfall in China. Finally, in the seventh section, we concentrate on the interdecadal variations of EASM. In particular, we look at a significant interdecadal variation that occurred at the end of the 1970 s, and how our understanding of this feature could affect forecasting ability.  相似文献   

南海北部冷涌及其环流特征          下载免费PDF全文

张玲  智协飞 《大气科学学报》2014,37(1):28-37

利用中国南部沿海风向、地面气温及南海北部风速的变化确定南海北部冷涌的判别标准,构建了一个冷涌发生频率指数,对南海北部冷涌的年际变化特征及其环流异常进行讨论。结果表明,南海北部冷涌频率指数能够更加全面地描述冷涌系统的特征,与全国范围的冷空气爆发关系密切。南海北部冷涌与中高纬、中低纬环流具有密切的联系,是二者共同作用的结果。当贝加尔湖以西高压脊偏强,中高纬环流经向度加大,西太平洋副热带高压强度偏弱、位置偏东时,有利于大陆上冷空气南下入海,在南海北部形成冷涌。冷涌发生时,经向Hadley环流加强,调整中纬与低纬地区的大气质量,高层向北输送的大气在科氏力作用下导致东亚副热带西风急流加强,有利于冷涌的维持和加强。  相似文献   

Comparison of the Influence of Interannual Vegetation Variability between Offline and Online Simulations          下载免费PDF全文

ZHU Jia-Wen  ZENG Xiao-Dong 《大气和海洋科学快报》2014,(5):453-457

This study investigates the influence of interannual vegetation variability. Two sets of offline and online simulations were performed using the Community Earth System Model. The interannual Global LAnd Surface Satellite （GLASS） leaf area index （LAI） dataset from 1985 to 2000 and its associated climatological LAI were used to replace the default climatological LAI data in version 4 of the Community Land Model （CLM4）. The re- sults showed that on a global scale, canopy transpiration and evaporation, as well as total evapotranspiration in offline simulations were significantly positively corre- lated with LAI, whereas ground evaporation and ground temperature showed significant negative correlation with LAI. However, the correlations in online simulations were reduced markedly because of interactive feedbacks between albedo, changed climatic factors and atmospheric variability. In the offline simulations, the fluctuations of differences in interannual variability of evapotranspiration and ground temperature focused on vegetation growing regions and the magnitudes were smaller. Those in online simulations spread over more regions and the magnitudes were larger. These results highlight the influence of interannual vegetation variability, particularly in online simulations, an effect that deserves consideration and attention when investigating the uncertainty of climate change.  相似文献   

The Relationship between the El Nin o/La Nin a Cycle and the Transition Chains of Four Atmospheric OscillationsPart I: The Four Oscillations简     

PENG Jingbei  CHEN Lieting  ZHANG Qingyun 《大气科学进展》2014,31(2):468-479

The first leading modes of the interannual variations in low-level circulation over the North and South Pacific are the Northern Oscillation （NO） and Southern Oscillation （SO）,which are oscillations in sea level pressure anomalies （SLPAs）between the eastern and western Pacific Ocean.The second leading modes are the North Pacific Oscillation （NPO） and the Antarctic Oscillation （AAO）,which reflect oscillations between the subtropics and the high and middle latitudes.The transition chains of these four oscillations were investigated using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP-NCAR） reanalysis data.The general pattern of the transition chain between the NO and NPO was from the negative phase of the NO （NO-） to the positive phase of the NPO （NPO＋）,then from NO＋ to NPO-to NO-.The whole transition chain took about 4-6 years.The general pattern and period of the transition between the SO and AAO were similar to those between the NO and NPO.In addition,the transition chains between the NO and NPO,and the SO and AAO,were almost simultaneous.The transition chains of the four oscillations were found to be closely connected,with the eastward propagations of SLPAs occurring along both sides of the Equator.  相似文献   

Relationships between Interannual and Intraseasonal Variations of the Asian-Western Pacific Summer Monsoon Hindcasted by BCC_CSM1.1（m）   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

LIU Xiangwen  ;WU Tongwen  ;YANG Song  ;LI Qiaoping  ;CHENG Yanjie  ;LIANG Xiaoyun  ;FANG Yongjie  ;JIE Weihua  ;NIE Suping 《大气科学进展》2014,31(5):1051-1064

Using hindcasts of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model, the relationships between interannual variability （IAV） and intraseasonal variability （ISV） of the Asian-western Pacific summer monsoon are diagnosed. Predictions show reasonable skill with respect to some basic characteristics of the ISV and IAV of the western North Pacific summer monsoon （WNPSM） and the Indian summer monsoon （ISM）. However, the links between the seasonally averaged ISV （SAISV） and seasonal mean of ISM are overestimated by the model. This deficiency may be partially attributable to the overestimated frequency of long breaks and underestimated frequency of long active spells of ISV in normal ISM years, although the model is capable of capturing the impact of ISV on the seasonal mean by its shift in the probability of phases. Furthermore, the interannual relationships of seasonal mean, SAISV, and seasonally averaged long-wave variability （SALWV; i.e., the part with periods longer than the intraseasonal scale） of the WNPSM and ISM with SST and low-level circulation are examined. The observed seasonal mean, SAISV, and SALWV show similar correlation patterns with SST and atmospheric circulation, but with different details. However, the model presents these correlation distributions with unrealistically small differences among different scales, and it somewhat overestimates the teleconnection between monsoon and tropical central-eastern Pacific SST for the ISM, but underestimates it for the WNPSM, the latter of which is partially related to the too-rapid decrease in the impact of E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation with forecast time in the model.  相似文献   

Upper- and Lower-tropospheric Circulation Anomalies Associated with Interannual Variation of Pakistan Rainfall during Summer     

Riyu LU  Saadia HINA  Xiaowei HONG 《大气科学进展》2020,37(11):1179-1190

This study investigated the large-scale circulation anomalies, in both the upper and lower troposphere, associated with the interannual variation of rainfall in Pakistan during summer, using the station observation data in this country and circulation data of the NCEP?NCAR reanalysis from 1981 to 2017. Results showed that the upper- and lower-tropospheric circulation anomalies associated with monthly rainfall variability exhibit similar features from June to August, so analyses were performed on June?August circulation and Pakistan rainfall data. The analyzed results indicated that summer rainfall in Pakistan is enhanced when there is an anticyclonic anomaly to the northwest of Pakistan in the upper troposphere and easterly anomalies along the southern foothills of the Himalayas in the lower troposphere, and vice versa. These upper- and lower-tropospheric circulation anomalies were found to be related, but show unique features. The upper-tropospheric anticyclonic anomaly is closely related to the Silk Road Pattern along the Asian westerly jet, while the lower-tropospheric easterly anomalies are related to the cyclonic anomaly to the south of Pakistan, i.e., intensified South Asian monsoon trough. The results presented here suggest that the interannual variability of summer rainfall in Pakistan is a combined result of upper- and lower-tropospheric circulation anomalies, and of extratropical and tropical circulation anomalies.  相似文献   

Differences between CMIP6 and CMIP5 Models in Simulating Climate over China and the East Asian Monsoon     

Dabang JIANG  Dan HU  Zhiping TIAN  Xianmei LANG 《大气科学进展》2020,37(10):1102-1118

We compare the ability of coupled global climate models from the phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5 and CMIP6, respectively) in simulating the temperature and precipitation climatology and interannual variability over China for the period 1961–2005 and the climatological East Asian monsoon for the period1979–2005. All 92 models are able to simulate the geographical distribution of the above variables reasonably well.Compared with earlier CMIP5 models, current CMIP6 models have nationally weaker cold biases, a similar nationwide overestimation of precipitation and a weaker underestimation of the southeast–northwest precipitation gradient, a comparable overestimation of the spatial variability of the interannual variability, and a similar underestimation of the strength of winter monsoon over northern Asia. Pairwise comparison indicates that models have improved from CMIP5 to CMIP6 for climatological temperature and precipitation and winter monsoon but display little improvement for the interannual temperature and precipitation variability and summer monsoon. The ability of models relates to their horizontal resolutions in certain aspects. Both the multi-model arithmetic mean and median display similar skills and outperform most of the individual models in all considered aspects.  相似文献   

江西省近50年霾天气时空分布特征及成因分析     

蒋璐君  刘熙明  张弛 《气象》2020,46(5):695-704

利用1964—2013年江西省83个站逐日霾观测资料,运用线性倾向估计等统计方法,分析江西省近50年霾时空变化特征及其与气候要素的关系。结果表明:江西霾日数呈赣中北部多、赣南少的特点,赣中的萍乡—宜春—抚州—上饶一带以及赣北北部的九江中部、景德镇北部地区是霾天气多发区,年均霾日数在30 d·a~(-1)以上。冬季霾日数最多,萍乡—宜春—鹰潭地区中北部、南昌—九江的中部以及上饶东部地区超过20 d·a~(-1),春季和秋季次之,夏季最少。12月是霾日数最多的月份,接近全年霾日数的2成。江西省霾日数呈年际增长的趋势,增长率为11 d·(10 a)~(-1),气候趋势系数为0.78,通过0.01的显著性水平检验。霾日数与平均风速和大风日数均呈负相关,而与静风日数呈正相关。近50年平均风速和大风日数呈下降趋势,静风日数呈上升趋势,这可能导致空气中污染物不易扩散而形成更多的霾天气。江西省降水日数呈减少趋势[-6.3 d·(10a)~(-1)],气温呈增暖趋势[0.15℃·(10a)~(-1)],霾日数与气温和降水日数分别呈正、负相关。  相似文献