用前期海温预报四川夏季气温的EOF迭代方案     

李跃清  张波 《成都信息工程学院学报》1996,(4)

应用ＥＯＦ（经验正交函数）迭代方案，考虑多时次历史资料，在全球海区海温与四川盆地气温非同步联系的基础上，以海温为预报因子进行了夏季气温的长期预报。结果表明：西太平洋高温区等关键海区海温的异常对未来四川盆地夏季气温变化有重要影响，由此建立的引入多时次海温的ＥＯＦ迭代长期温度预报方法，具有较强的预报能力  相似文献   

印度洋dipole事件的年际变化与ENSO事件的联系     

刘琳于卫东  刘玉国 《广东海洋大学学报》2006,26(3):50-55

通过对nino3指数和DMI序列的分析，发现两种物理现象都有4a左右的主要周期，而且印度洋偶极子事件还存在有2a左右的振荡周期，而厄尔尼诺事件在2a时间尺度上周期性不明显；对nino3指数和DMI进行年际时间尺度滤波，结果表明，在年际时间尺度上，两者的相关性比未滤波时有了一定的提高；对年际滤波之后的偶极子事件和ELNINO事件的相关分析可以发现，ELNINO对于印度洋偶极子事件的影响要大于IOD对于太平洋ENSO事件，显示了两者物理现象的影响不对称。  相似文献   

Structural Control of Sand Bodies and Deep Exploration for Oil and Gas     

Cheng Rihui  Lin Changsong  ZHENG Herong 《世界地质(英文版)》2002,5(2)

The structural styles can be used to analyses and predict developments and distributions of sand bodies in a rift basin. The dynamic process of faulting and sedimentation can be expressed as follow: the basin topography controlled by fault activity can control water dynamics; which in turn affect the transport and sedimentation of sediments. The corresponding analysis between structural styles and sand depositional types includes the following aspects: (1) in section, the corresponding between development of fault terraces and sand depositional types; (2) in plane, the relationship between faults' association and distributions of sand bodies. There are four types of terrace styles to be identified. They are Steep Slope Single Fault Terrace (SSSFT), Steep Slope Multiple Fault Terrace (SSMFT), Gentle Slope (GS) and Gentle Slope Multiple Fault Terrace (GSMFT), which also can be divided into six subtypes by the timing of the faults activities and the directions of their activity migrations (basinward and landward or marginward). They correspond to the following sand depositions such as alluvial fan, fan delta and turbidite fan etc.. The analysis of structure-sedimentation is a discussion on the rank Ⅲ sequence evolution under the condition of pulsing or episodic fault activities. It has been recognized four plane fault associations such as the comb, the broom, the fork and the fault-fold association as well as the corresponding sand distributions. Structural-sedimentary models above mentioned are significant for the deep oil and gas exploration when lacking of the drill data. It may reduce multiple resolutions in the interpretation of seismic-sedimentary facies and promote sand predictions through the constraints of the structural styles of the basin units. The structural-sedimentary pattern can be used as a geological model in oil and gas exploration in the rift basins.  相似文献   

黄河三角洲埕岛地区近年海底冲淤规律及水深预测   总被引：10，自引：1，他引：9  

鹿洪友  李广雪 《地球科学与环境学报》2003,25(1):57-61

通过对1976～1995年黄河三角洲地区埕岛海域的水深资料以及近年来实测的水深数据的分析,确定了黄河三角洲埕岛地区在1976年黄河改道清水沟后,从三角洲推进淤积期进入了海岸冲刷改造期。按冲刷速率、剖面坡度及其与季节变化的关系可分为快速冲刷阶段(1976～1980)、缓慢冲刷阶段(1981～1992)、以冲刷为主的冲淤调整阶段(1992年至今),海岸边带的后期冲刷改造受季节性影响也比较明显。在深度上基本以15m等深线为界,深水区淤积、浅水区冲刷。通过250m×250m网格化节点的实测水深变化的时间序列,采用二维平面的趋势面拟合方法,可以较好地对本海区的水深进行拟合并做出时间序列值的预测。  相似文献   

秦皇岛市青龙县城工程场地动力特征及分区评价     

张骏  杜东菊  卢玉东  汪光辉 《地球科学与环境学报》1994,(3)

工程场地动力分区评价（即地震影响小区划），是在工程场地地震危险性分析的基础上，根据场地岩土动力特征及地形地貌、地质构造条件等对地震动影响的反应程度，从而对不同类型场地的地震效应作出评价．其成果可做为建筑抗震设计、工程加固、震害预测与对策的制定及土地合理利用和总体规划布局的依据．本文以秦皇岛市青龙县城工程场地为例，进行了工程场地动力特征研究与分区评价及震害预测（即工程场地地震影响小区划）。  相似文献   

四川旱涝震灾害的人工神经网络外推预测     

李祚泳  邓新民  黄志英 《成都信息工程学院学报》1997,(2)

选取旱、涝、震灾害之间的一步转移概率作为Ｂ－Ｐ人工神经网络训练样本的输入信息，建立了四川旱、涝、震的人工神经网络灾型预测模型。Ｂ－Ｐ网络模型应用于实例预测结果与用主分量分析法的趋势预测结果精度接近。  相似文献   

Thermal conductivity modelling of terrestrial soil media—A comparative study     

B. Usowicz  J. Lipiec  A. Ferrero 《Planetary and Space Science》2006,54(11):1086-1095

The paper describes prediction of thermal conductivity in terrestrial soil media. The model operates statistically by probability of occurrence for contacts between particular fractional compounds. It combines physical properties, specific to particular compounds, into one apparent conductance specific to the mixture. The concept of substituting grain compounds by hypothetical spheres is an essential tool to control porosity by the number of spheres, their radii and probability of contacts between them. The spheres are equal in radii. The spheres substitute compounds, regardless of the phase state. Control of particular phase states is possible by means of specific properties assigned to the spheres, at the input to the model. Performance of the model is successfully proved for many diverse terrestrial soil media in a wide range of bulk density, composition, water and water vapour content. Only the compounds of sand decline from the expected values and require introducing a correction to the thermal conductivity of sand grains. One possible explanation is that the thermal conductivity of sand is uncertain. Nevertheless, the model is useful and worth extending beyond terrestrial purposes.  相似文献   

Interannual and seasonal variation of the Huanghe (Yellow River) water discharge over the past 50 years: Connections to impacts from ENSO events and dams   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2  

Houjie Wang  Zuosheng Yang  Yoshiki Saito  J. Paul Liu  Xiaoxia Sun   《Global and Planetary Change》2006,50(3-4):212-225

The Huanghe, the second largest river in China, is now under great pressure as a water resource. Using datasets of river water discharge, water consumption and regional precipitation for the past 50 years, we elucidate some connections between decreasing water discharges, global El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and anthropogenic impacts in the drainage basin. Global ENSO events, which directly affected the regional precipitation in the river basin, resulted in approximately 51% decrease in river water discharge to the sea. The degree of anthropogenic impacts on river water discharge is now as great as that of natural influences, accelerating the water losses in the hydrological cycle. The large dams and reservoirs regulated the water discharge and reduced the peak flows by storing the water in the flood season and releasing it in the dry season as needed for agricultural irrigation. Thus, as a result, large dams and reservoirs have shifted the seasonal distribution patterns of water discharge and water consumption and finally resulted in rapidly increasing water consumption. Meanwhile, the annual distribution pattern of water consumption also changed under the regulation of dams and reservoirs, indicating that the people living in the river basin consume the water more and more to suit actual agricultural schedule rather than depending upon natural pattern of annual precipitation. The combination of the increasing water consumption facilitated by the dams and reservoirs and the decreasing precipitation closely associated with the global ENSO events over the past half century has resulted in water scarcity in this world-famous river, as well as in a number of subsequent serious results for the river, delta and coastal ocean.  相似文献   

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周硕愚  吴云  施顺英  姚运生 《大地测量与地球动力学》2007,27(4):92-99

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地震发生的极限时间   总被引：7，自引：3，他引：4  

刘正荣 《地震研究》2002,25(2):95-99

指出了成组出现的地震一般所遵从的规律，并以实例形式计算了中国历史上几次巨大地震，1996－1976年间各大地震间所满足的关系，并以越南来州地震为例说明了以较小地震报大震的方法。  相似文献