陕西省宝鸡市地质灾害发育特征     

石玲  王涛  辛鹏 《地质力学学报》2013,19(4):351-363

根据近7年来陕西省宝鸡市12区县地质灾害详细调查资料,总结宝鸡地区地质灾害主要类型、空间分布规律、发育特征及其危害性。研究结果显示,宝鸡市地质灾害发育类型主要包括滑坡、崩塌、泥石流及不稳定斜坡等4类,总体发育特征具有群发性、突发性、周期性和链生性。其中,滑坡和崩塌数量多、危害大,泥石流相对发育较少,不稳定斜坡多与崩塌相伴生,大多发展为崩塌灾害。每年汛期在强降雨作用下,都可能诱发表层小型滑坡和崩塌,特别是城镇居民房前屋后的小型黄土滑坡和崩塌,以及山区公路切坡导致的残坡积层滑坡崩塌频繁发生,是宝鸡市地质灾害群测群防和减灾防灾关注的重点。  相似文献   

塔里木盆地塔北隆起中-新生界伸展构造及其成因探讨   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3  

赵岩  李曰俊  孙龙德  郑多明  刘亚雷  王道轩  魏红兴  管文胜 《岩石学报》2012,28(8):2557-2568

中-新生代伸展构造一直是中亚地区地质研究的薄弱环节.作为中亚地区的一个重要的中新生代沉积盆地,塔里木盆地也不例外.精细的地震资料解释发现,塔里木盆地塔北隆起发育大量中-新生代伸展构造.这些伸展构造由一系列规模不大的正断层组成.这些小型正断层往往构成左阶或右阶式雁列束,平面上,组成多条张扭性正断层带;剖面组合形态则是小型堑-垒构造或阶梯状正断层束.根据伸展构造的空间展布、构造样式、组合关系、形成演化时间和成因分析,可以划分出侏罗纪-白垩纪早期和白垩纪晚期-新近纪两期伸展构造.前者是南天山碰撞造山后应力松弛阶段的产物,后者的成因是喜马拉雅碰撞造山作用远程效应引起的塔里木相对于南天山向东偏南方向的构造逃逸.  相似文献   

浅谈测绘项目招标工作中评标方法择取     

黄志行;赖赟康;周朝生;陆荣茂;薛峰 《东北测绘》2013,(2):190-192

根据招投标相关法律法规在测绘项目招投标工作中的实施,结合多年工作经验,介绍测绘项目招投标工作中的三种不同评标方法,讨论评标方法的择取。  相似文献   

Improving the performance of data-driven techniques through data pre-processing for modelling daily reservoir inflow     

V. Jothiprakash  Alka S. Kote 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1):168-186

Abstract

The effect of data pre-processing while developing artificial intelligence (AI) -based data-driven techniques, such as artificial neural networks (ANN), model trees (MT) and linear genetic programming (LGP), is studied for Pawana Reservoir in Maharashtra, India. The daily one-step-ahead inflow forecasts are compared with flows generated from a univariate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. For the full-year data series, a large error is found mainly due to the occurrence of zero values, since the reservoir is located in an intermittent river. Hence, all the techniques are evaluated using two data series: 18 years of daily full-year inflow data (from 1 January to 31 December); and 18 years of daily monsoon season inflow data (from 1 June to 31 October) to take into account the intermittent nature of the data. The relevant range of inputs for each category is selected based on autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation analyses of the inflow series. Conventional pre-processing methods, such as transformation and/or normalization of data, do not perform well because of the large variation in magnitudes, as well as the many zero values (65% of the full-year data series). Therefore, the input data are pre-processed into un-weighted moving average (MA) series of 3 days, 5 days and 7 days. The 3-day MA series performs better, maintaining the peak inflow pattern as in the actual data series, while the coarser-scale (5-day and 7-day) MA series reduce the peak inflow pattern, leading to more errors in peak inflow prediction. The results indicate that AI methods are powerful tools for modelling the daily flow time series with appropriate data pre-processing, in spite of the presence of many zero values. The time-lagged recurrent network (TLRN) ANN modelling technique applied in this study maps the inflow forecasting in a better way than the standard multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural networks, especially in the case of the seasonal data series. The MT technique performs equally well for low and medium inflows, but fails to predict the peak inflows. However, LGP outperforms the other AI models, and also the ARIMA model, for all inflow magnitudes. In the LGP model, the daily full-year data series with more zero inflow values performs better than the daily seasonal models.

Citation Jothiprakash, V. & Kote, A. S. (2011) Improving the performance of data-driven techniques through data pre-processing for modelling daily reservoir inflow. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(1), 168–186.  相似文献   

断裂滑动速度对强震发生周期的影响——以东昆仑活动断裂带库赛湖断裂分段和西大滩断裂分段为例     

白玉柱  周庆  徐锡伟 《地球物理学进展》2013,28(3)

2001年11月14日东昆仑断裂带库赛湖段发生8.1级大地震.事实上,库赛湖断裂分段大震的复发周期会受到其他分段运动行为的影响,尤其是临近的西大滩断裂分段.本文采用速度和状态依赖摩擦本构控制的一维弹簧滑块模型(BK模型)研究断裂分段滑动速度对强震复发周期的影响.以东昆仑活动断裂带库赛湖断裂分段和西大滩断裂分段作为实例进行研究,研究中将两断裂分段视为通过弹簧相连的滑块系统,其中模型参数的选择是以现有东昆仑活动断裂带库赛湖和西大滩分段的地质研究成果、历史地震和古地震资料直接给出,部分参数也采用了数值计算的方法.研究预测了两分段不同滑动速度对强震复发周期、断裂滑动速度及错动位移在未来0.5～0.6万年中随时间变化的影响.研究发现:在断裂分段之间的相互影响下,各断裂分段滑动速度与各段的强震发生周期没有规律性的关系;两断裂分段组成的系统中,某断裂分段滑动速度放慢(加快)会使该断裂分段未来强震发生的震级增大(减小),而对另外断裂分段的强震发生震级没有规律性影响;两断裂分段组成的系统中,某断裂分段滑动速度加快(放慢)会使另外的断裂分段在强震发生时错动的速度加快(放慢);同时,两断裂分段组成的系统中,某一断裂分段滑动速度上的变化对另一断裂分段强震复发周期的影响只有在较长时间跨度上才能体现.  相似文献   

MDCT评价冠心病患者升主动脉弹性与高血压的相关性     

吴磊  查云飞  彭晓菁  付传明  密亚平 《CT理论与应用研究》2013,(4):685-691

目的：采用64-MDCT评价冠心病患者升主动脉弹性与高血压的相关性。方法：对135例拟诊冠心病的受检者行回顾性心电门控技术冠状动脉CTA和冠状动脉造影（CAG）检查。测量受试者血压,重组升主动脉0％～95％R-R间期间隔5％的图像,采用MATLAB软件自动描绘并测量各R—R间期主动脉横截面积,然后计算出升主动脉弹性值。将受试者分为非高血压组（n=54）和高血压组（n=81）。结果：高血压组升主动脉弹性低于非高血压组（t=7．81,P〈0．001）。多元线性回归表明高血压是升主动脉弹性值的独立影响因子（B=-0．835,t=7．18,P〈0．001）。结论：升主动脉弹性与高血压有较好的相关性,升主动脉弹性的及时、准确评价有助于心血管疾病的早期预警。  相似文献   

Real‐time recurrent learning neural network for stream‐flow forecasting     

F.‐John Chang  Li‐Chiu Chang  Hau‐Lung Huang 《水文研究》2002,16(13):2577-2588

Various types of neural networks have been proposed in previous papers for applications in hydrological events. However, most of these applied neural networks are classified as static neural networks, which are based on batch processes that update action only after the whole training data set has been presented. The time variate characteristics in hydrological processes have not been modelled well. In this paper, we present an alternative approach using an artificial neural network, termed real‐time recurrent learning (RTRL) for stream‐flow forecasting. To define the properties of the RTRL algorithm, we first compare the predictive ability of RTRL with least‐square estimated autoregressive integrated moving average models on several synthetic time‐series. Our results demonstrate that the RTRL network has a learning capacity with high efficiency and is an adequate model for time‐series prediction. We also investigated the RTRL network by using the rainfall–runoff data of the Da‐Chia River in Taiwan. The results show that RTRL can be applied with high accuracy to the study of real‐time stream‐flow forecasting networks. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Sun-perturbed earth-to-moon transfers with low energy and moderate flight time   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Kazuyuki Yagasaki 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2004,90(3-4):197-212

We construct a spacecraft transfer with low cost and moderate flight time from the Earth to the Moon. The motion of the spacecraft is modeled by the planar circular restricted three-body problem including a perturbation due to the solar gravitation. Our approach is to reduce computation of optimal transfers to a non-linear boundary value problem. Using a computer software called AUTO, we solve it and continue its solutions numerically to obtain the optimal transfers. Our result also shows that the use of the solar gravitation can further lower the transfer cost drastically.  相似文献   

佛道介入与妈祖信仰的嬗变     

李舒燕  马新广 《广东海洋大学学报》2008,28(2):20-23

通过对道教和佛教介入,妈祖信仰在其能指与所指之间流溢动荡过程的梳理,认为妈祖信仰与二者存在"家族相似性"的关系,佛道介入深深地影响并改变了妈祖信仰的形式和内容。  相似文献   

“威马逊”台前飑线环境场及多普勒雷达回波特征     

唐明晖  王强  叶成志  兰明才  王起唤  庄庭 《气象科技》2016,44(2):275-282

利用常规观测资料、多普勒天气雷达资料、地面自动站加密资料、NCEP 1°×1°的再分析资料等对2014年7月18日发生在湘赣地区一次台前飑线过程的环境条件及多普勒天气雷达特征进行研究。结果表明:台前飑线产生前,对流层低层较好的水汽条件、条件不稳定层结以及两者结合形成的高CAPE值均为其发生发展提供了良好的条件;台风倒槽是此次台前飑线过程主要影响系统,露点锋、地面辐合线为其提供了抬升触发和维持加强机制;台前飑线西移北上的过程中出现"弓形"回波、中层径向辐合(MARC)、速度大值区、阵风锋。本次台前飑线和以往研究的西风带飑线存在以下差异:本次飑线低层垂直风切变主要是以风速差为主;中高层的冷空气侵入并不明显;在成熟阶段,气压场上也没有明显的雷暴高压,但有明显正变压;本次飑线过程是发生在暖湿的环境条件下,后侧入流为相对湿度较大的东南急流,雨水蒸发并没有西风带飑线强烈;雷达速度图上虽有MARC特征但最大正负速度差值并不是很大(15~27 m/s)。上述特征可能是该台前飑线过境湖南过程中没有造成极端大风的主要原因之一。  相似文献