Estimating Sea-Level Allowances for Atlantic Canada using the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC     

Li Zhai  Blair J.W. Greenan  John Hunter  Thomas S. James  Guoqi Han  Phillip MacAulay 《大气与海洋》2015,53(5):476-490

Abstract

Sea-level allowances at 22 tide-gauge sites along the east coast of Canada are determined based on projections of regional sea-level rise for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) and on the statistics of historical tides and storm surges (storm tides). The allowances, which may be used for coastal infrastructure planning, increase with time during the twenty-first century through a combination of mean sea-level rise and the increased uncertainty of future projections with time. The allowances show significant spatial variation, mainly a consequence of strong regionally varying relative sea-level change as a result of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). A methodology is described for replacement of the GIA component of the AR5 projection with global positioning system (GPS) measurements of vertical crustal motion; this significantly decreases allowances in regions where the uncertainty of the GIA models is large. For RCP8.5 with GPS data incorporated and for the 1995–2100 period, the sea-level allowances range from about 0.5?m along the north shore of the Gulf of St. Lawrence to more than 1?m along the coast of Nova Scotia and southern Newfoundland.  相似文献   

月表虹湾Hurst指数分析          下载免费PDF全文

奚晓旭  刘少峰  韦蔚  李珂  焦中虎  李力 《地学前缘》2012,19(6):137-143

月球遥感是在登月技术还不完善的情况下,利用遥感数据,通过各种分析来研究月球演化、内部结果和表面特征的方法。粗糙度是地表隆升、沉降、侵蚀和火山喷射物覆盖在行星表面留下的记录,因此对行星表面粗糙度的定量分析可以精确反映其地质演化过程。而Hurst指数则是粗糙度的精确反映。文中利用LOLA制作的DEM,以月球正面虹湾为例,选取水平方向的12条剖面和垂直方向的15条剖面对其各粗糙度参数进行计算,并结合月表成熟度对Hurst指数与底层年龄的相关性进行了分析,得出如下结论:(1)在1km的剖面长度上,虹湾地区均方根高程的平均值在3m左右;在0.2～3km研究尺度范围内,虹湾地区的坡度不超过2°,说明该地表起伏度小。(2)虹湾地区的Hurst指数跨度比较大,尤其在垂直方向(南北)上,在0.4到0.9之间,表明其构造样式丰富。(3)在0.2～3km研究尺度范围内,Hurst指数自北往南增大、自西往东增大,表示在虹湾地区粗糙度自西北向东南方向增大。(4)虹湾地区地质年龄为自西北向东南方向变小,与Hurst指数增大方向一致。(5)在月表年轻撞击坑地区月表成熟度与Hurst指数大致呈负相关关系。  相似文献   

斜向和多向不规则波在斜坡堤上的平均越浪量的试验研究   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

李晓亮  俞聿修  赵凤亚  鲁桂荣 《海洋学报》2007,29(1):139-149

通过三维物理模型试验研究了在斜坡堤上斜向和多向不规则波在非破碎条件下的平均越浪量与波浪参数及堤参数的关系.着重考察了波浪以小角度(0°~30°)斜向入射时平均越浪量的变化情况,肯定了多向波的越浪量在这一范围内有所谓“小角度斜向增加”的现象,但否定了单向波也具有这一现象.在考察波浪的方向分布影响时发现波浪斜向入射时多向波的越浪量往往要比单向波的大.比较了已有的相关研究成果,给出了适用于混凝土护面和扭工字块体护面斜坡堤上斜向和多向不规则波的平均越浪量的估算公式.  相似文献   

Perched lobe formation in the Gulf of Cadiz: Interactions between gravity processes and contour currents (Algarve Margin, Southern Portugal)     

E. Marchès  T. Mulder  M. Cremer  T. Garlan 《Sedimentary Geology》2010,229(3):81-94

The Gulf of Cadiz is swept by the strong saline Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW). On the Algarve Margin (South Portugal), this current has constructed fine-grained contourite drifts. This margin is dissected by the Portimao Canyon and three short channels that only incise the upper slope, and are absent on a terrace located at mid-slope depths along the Algarve Margin. High-resolution seismic profiles and sediment cores highlight the original architecture of the sedimentary deposits on this terrace. Coarse-grained lenticular chaotic bodies formed during major relative sea-level lowstands are intercalated within the drift. The lobate shape and sandy nature of the lenticular chaotic bodies and their location at the mouths of the three short channels suggest they are gravity-generated deposits that are perched on the middle continental slope.In the Gulf of Cadiz, the interaction between contour current and gravity processes is strongly controlled by climatic variations and relative sea-level changes during the late Quaternary. During cold periods when sea-level was low, erosion intensified on the continental shelf and the deepest part of MOW was active. Sediment was transported downslope through the channels and deposited on sedimentary lobes perched on the mid-slope terrace. During warm periods when relative sea-level was high, the supply of sediment from the shelf was shut off and the shallowest part of MOW was more active. Contourite drifts fill the channels and bury the sandy lobes.  相似文献   

北部湾地区不同相对密度的海砂力学特性分析     

王家全  祝梦柯  唐毅  黄世斌 《海洋工程》2022,40(5):147-157

为探究相对密度和有效围压对饱和海砂力学特性的影响,利用GDS动态三轴试验仪,对广西北部湾地区海砂开展了一系列固结排水三轴剪切试验,分析了相对密度、有效围压对饱和海砂强度特征、体变特征、割线模量以及摩擦角的影响规律。结果表明：随着围压的减小或相对密度的增大,试样体积应变不断增大,而相对密度或有效围压的增加均会提高试样的峰值强度,有效围压与峰值强度之间呈现良好的线性增长关系。随着围压的减小或相对密度的增大,应力相对软化系数、剪胀系数均不断增大,且有效围压与应力相对软化系数、剪胀系数分别呈线性和半对数线性相关。割线模量随轴向应变的增加整体呈衰减趋势,各试验工况下轴向应变为5%时试样的割线模量相比于轴向应变0.164%衰减了80%~90%。饱和海砂的峰值摩擦角随相对密度的增加而增大,随有效围压的增大而减小,相对密度D_r为50%时有效围压σ_c为50 kPa对应的峰值摩擦角是σ_c为200 kPa的1.098倍。  相似文献   

The total operating characteristic to measure diagnostic ability for multiple thresholds   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Robert Gilmore Pontius Jr 《International journal of geographical information science》2014,28(3):570-583

The relative operating characteristic (ROC) is a popular statistical method to measure the association between observed and diagnosed presence of a characteristic. The diagnosis of presence or absence depends on whether the value of an index variable is above a threshold. ROC considers multiple possible thresholds. Each threshold generates a two-by-two contingency table, which contains four central entries: hits, misses, false alarms, and correct rejections. ROC reveals for each threshold only two ratios, hits/(hits + misses) and false alarms/(false alarms + correct rejections). This article introduces the total operating characteristic (TOC), which shows the total information in the contingency table for each threshold. TOC maintains desirable properties of ROC, while TOC reveals strictly more information than ROC in a manner that makes TOC more useful than ROC. We illustrate the concepts with an application to land change science.  相似文献   

黄土高原半干旱区异常能量闭合率特征分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

朱岩  左洪超  郭阳  武建军 《干旱气象》2014,(5):719-726

以兰州大学半干旱气候与环境观测站（简称SACOL站）4 a的陆面通量数据为基础,利用普通最小二乘法（OLS）和能量平衡比率（EBR）方法,对能量平衡的异常闭合特征及其与相对垂直湍强（RIw）的关系进行了研究,并进行了能量滞后分析。结果表明,能量过闭合和负闭合现象分别主要发生在白天和夜间,大小遵从正态分布;较大异常闭合产生的原因主要是日出日落时净辐射与地表热通量接近以及降水影响造成湍流通量出现异常大值。一般来说,垂直湍流运动越强,异常闭合越少,闭合度越向1收敛,反之亦然。强湍流或极弱湍流都不利于产生异常闭合,过闭合、负闭合的最适相对垂直湍强RIw约为0.11、0.14。另外,能量支出项的相对滞后也是造成包括负闭合在内的异常闭合的原因之一。剔除湍强较弱的点或将地表热通量G0、感热H、潜热LE相位相对净辐射Rn提前30 min后,异常闭合所占比重减少;月平均EBR法过闭合度降低,OLS法闭合度提高。  相似文献   

丹麦日德兰半岛西海岸典型岸段地貌概况及研究现状     

王福  王宏  李建芬  商志文 《海洋地质前沿》2014,30(11):8-16

通过实地调查和资料搜集,对丹麦日德兰半岛西海岸典型岸段的地貌类型和研究现状进行了总结。丹麦日德兰半岛西海岸岸线长度约为470km,海岸类型可以分为无障壁海岸和有障壁海岸2大类。无障壁海岸以沙丘为主,并有海蚀崖,主要分布在斯卡恩(Skagen)到布劳万角(Bl?vands Huk);有障壁海岸地貌类型以障壁岛—潟湖、盐沼为主,主要分布在布劳万角到勒姆岛(R?m?),并向南进入德国。丹麦西海岸北部属于冰后期地壳回弹上升区,向南地壳回弹幅度逐渐减弱,至Ringk?bing峡湾地区变为地壳稳定区,再向南地壳变为下降区,因此,全新世地层中分别记录了不同的相对海面变化信息。距今7 150a以来,北部的Skagen岬角地区的相对海面下降了16~25m;Skallingen地区过去5 000a间海面在现代海面附近波动,其后侧Ho Bugt盐沼地区4 000a以来相对海面上升了4m;过去8 000a间,R?m?障壁岛的相对海面上升了15m。欧洲学者在丹麦西海岸地区取得的典型成果包括:海面变化重建(包括海面变化标志点、泥炭层压实校正、定年等)、全新世地质环境演化、开放潮坪现代沉积定量研究等,为海岸带研究提供了有益参考。  相似文献   

一种基于相对梯度法的海水温度分层模型     

赵宁  韩震  王嵩 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2014,44(9):25-29,52

提出了一种以海表面温度为输入参数的海水温度分层模型。以2005—2012年的Argo气候态数据集与Argo浮标数据为基础,采用相对梯度法对海水温度垂向结构进行了分层,并据此获取了各层拟合方程所需的参数,包括:混合层深度、混合层梯度、温跃层上界深度、温跃层下界深度、深层大洋起始深度以及方程拟合系数。本文通过世界大洋数据库09版的CTD、XBT实测剖面数据对模型进行了检验。检验结果表明,该模型可以有效地对海水温度结构进行模拟,特别是400m以上的中上层大洋。模拟结果的总体均方根差(RMSE)为0.778℃,而在水深400m以上的中上层区域误差为0.494℃。  相似文献   

Denitrification potential of marsh soils in two natural saline-alkaline wetlands     

Junhong Bai  Qingqing Zhao  Junjing Wang  Qiongqiong Lu  Xiaofei Ye  Zhaoqin Gao 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2014,24(3):279-286

Little information is available on denitrification potential of marsh soils in natural saline-alkaline wetlands. The denitrification potentials of an open wetland in the floodplain(Erbaifangzi wetland) and a closed wetland(Fulaowenpao wetland) in backwater areas in Jilin Province of Northeast China were monitored by an anaerobic incubation at 30℃ for 25 days. Our results showed that the relative denitrification index(RDI) increased gradually with incubation time, and showed a rapid increase in the first 5 days of incubation. The RDI values declined quickly from surface soils to subsurface soils and then kept a small change in deeper soils along soil profiles over the incubation time. Denitrification proceeded much faster in the top 20 cm soils of open wetland than in the closed wetland, whereas no significant differences in RDI values were observed in deeper soils between both wetlands. The RDIs were significantly negatively correlated with bulk density and sand content, while a significantly positive correlation with clay content, soil organic matter, total nitrogen and phosphorous. The maximum net NO–3-N loss through denitrification in 1 m depth were higher in the open wetland than the closed wetland with higher soil pH values. Future research should be focused on understanding the influencing mechanisms of soil alkalinity.  相似文献