不同损失条件下的泥石流预报模型   总被引：14，自引：2，他引：14  

韦方强  胡凯衡  崔鹏  杨坤 《山地学报》2002,20(1):97-102

泥石流预报是泥石流减灾的重要手段之一，然而泥石流形成的复杂性使泥石流预报准确度低，误报和漏报率较高。泥石流误报和漏报都会造成损失，但二者造成的损失有很大的差别。为了减少泥石流误报或漏报造成的损失，应当考虑两种错报造成损失的不同。根据使总平均损失达到最小的原则，建立了不同损失条件下的泥石流预报模型，并将该模型应用到云南东川蒋家沟。  相似文献   

泥石流多发干旱河谷区植被恢复研究   总被引：10，自引：2，他引：10  

沈有信  张彦东  刘文耀 《山地学报》2002,20(2):188-193

云南东北部东川小江流域的干旱河谷土地退化十分严重，土地表层的砾石含量已超过60％，有机质含量、全氮、有效氮、有效磷、有效钾的含量相对于残存燥红土明显下降。草坡是当地的主要植被类型，并未起到防治土地退化的应有作用。以合欢（Leucaena glauca)、马桑（Coriaria sinica)种植为主的恢复方式对土地的恢复有明显的改善作用。高密度的乔木树种合欢的种植使林下的草本物种的数量和组成发生了极大变化，较耐荫的植物占据了林分下层，且物种数量较草坡减少，群落多样性指数降低。三种马桑种植方式下，不但原有的草坡群落的物种仍有大量的生存空间，而且为一些新物种创造了生存环境，从而使物种的种类较原有草坡地增加，提高了群落的多样性指数。合欢种植的生物量最高，对解决当地薪柴严重短缺意义重大，马桑种植在增加灌木层生物量的同时，并未改变草坡的物种组成，还可兼顾解决当地的饲草和放牧，应大力推广。  相似文献   

Statistical characteristics of chlorophyll-a concentration in Hong Kong′s coastal waters     

CHEN Xiaoling  Yok Sheung Li  LI Zhilin 《地理学报(英文版)》2002,12(3)

In this paper seven of the ten Water Control Zones (WCZs) in Hong Kong′s coastal waters with monthly or bi-weekly sampling data of 17 parameters collected at 37 monitoring stations from 1988 to 1999 were selected to analyze the spatial and temporal variations of chlorophyll-a and its influencing factors. Cluster analysis was employed to group the monitoring stations based on the structure of the data set. Multiple step regression was employed to determine the significant influencing factors of chlorophyll-a level. The results suggest that all the monitoring stations could be grouped into two clusters. Cluster I with frequent red tide incidents comprises two WCZs which aresemi-enclosed bays. Cluster II with less red tide occurrence comprises the other five WCZs in an estuarine environment in the west. For both clusters, the organic contents indicator, BOD5, was a common significant influencing factor of the chlorophyll-a level. Nitrogen and light penetration condition related to turbidity, total volatile solids and suspended solids had more influence on the cholophyll-a level in Cluster I than in Cluster II, while phosphorus and oceanographic conditions associated with salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen and pH were more important in Cluster II than in Cluster 1. Generally, there was a higher average chlorophyll-a level in winter and autumn in a year.The chlorophyll-a level was much higher in Cluster I than in Cluster II among all seasons. Although the chlorophyll-a concentration had great variations from place to place in Hong Kong′s coastal waters, it seemed to have a common long term fluctuation period of 8-10 years with a high-low-high variation in the period in the whole region, which might be influenced by other factors of global scale.  相似文献   

A study on the early-warning technique concerning debris flow disasters     

ZHOU Jinxing  Wang Lixian  XIE Baoyuan  FEI Shimin  Wang Xilin 《地理学报(英文版)》2002,12(3)

According to the principle of the eruption of debris flows, the new torrent classification techniques are brought forward. The torrent there can be divided into 4 types such as the debris flow torrent with high destructive strength, the debris flow torrent, high sand-carrying capacity flush flood torrent and common flush flood by the techniques. In this paper, the classification indices system and the quantitative rating methods are presented. Based on torrent classification, debris flow torrent hazard zone mapping techniques by which the debris flow disaster early-warning object can be ascertained accurately are identified. The key techniques of building the debris flow disaster neural network (NN)real time forecasting model are given detailed explanations in this paper, including the determination of neural node at the input layer, the output layer and the implicit layer, the construction of knowledge source and the initial weight value and so on. With this technique, the debris flow disaster real-time forecasting neural network model is built according to the rainfall features of the historical debris flow disasters, which includes multiple rain factors such as rainfall of the disaster day, the rainfall of 15 days before the disaster day, the maximal rate of rainfall in one hour and ten minutes. It can forecast the probability, critical rainfall of eruption of the debris flows, through the real-time rainfall monitoring or weather forecasting. Based on the torrent classification and hazard zone mapping, combined with rainfall monitoring in the rainy season and real-time forecasting models, the debris flow disaster early-warning system is built. In this system, the GIS technique, the advanced international software and hardware are applied, which makes the system′s performance steady with good expansibility. The system is a visual information system that serves management and decision-making, which can facilitate timely inspect of the variation of the torrent type and hazardous zone, the torrent management, the early-warning of disasters and the disaster reduction and prevention.  相似文献   

粘性泥石流残留层的形成及减阻作用--以云南蒋家沟泥石流为例   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张军  吴积善  游勇  程尊兰 《山地学报》2003,21(2):223-227

通过对云南蒋家沟粘性泥石流的野外观测 ,讨论了粘性泥石流残留层的定义特征 ,在大量实测数据基础上 ,分析了残留层易形成时段的特性 ;分别对一次泥石流过程、若干阵泥石流和一阵泥石流残留层的变化进行了相关分析 ;最后用观测数据分析了泥石流残留层的减阻作用  相似文献   

High spatial resolution hyperspectral mapping of in-stream habitats, depths, and woody debris in mountain streams     

W. Andrew Marcus  Carl J. Legleiter  Richard J. Aspinall  Joseph W. Boardman  Robert L. Crabtree 《Geomorphology》2003,55(1-4):363

This article evaluates the potential of 1-m resolution, 128-band hyperspectral imagery for mapping in-stream habitats, depths, and woody debris in third- to fifth-order streams in the northern Yellowstone region. Maximum likelihood supervised classification using principal component images provided overall classification accuracies for in-stream habitats (glides, riffles, pools, and eddy drop zones) ranging from 69% for third-order streams to 86% for fifth-order streams. This scale dependency of classification accuracy was probably driven by the greater proportion of transitional boundary areas in the smaller streams. Multiple regressions of measured depths (y) versus principal component scores (x₁, x₂,…, x_n) generated R² values ranging from 67% for high-gradient riffles to 99% for glides in a fifth-order reach. R² values were lower in third-order reaches, ranging from 28% for runs and glides to 94% for pools. The less accurate depth estimates obtained for smaller streams probably resulted from the relative increase in the number of mixed pixels, where a wide range of depths and surface turbulence occurred within a single pixel. Matched filter (MF) mapping of woody debris generated overall accuracies of 83% in the fifth-order Lamar River. Accuracy figures for the in-stream habitat and wood mapping may have been misleadingly low because the fine-resolution imagery captured fine-scale variations not mapped by field teams, which in turn generated false “misclassifications” when the image and field maps were compared.The use of high spatial resolution hyperspectral (HSRH) imagery for stream mapping is limited by the need for clear water to measure depth, by any tree cover obscuring the stream, and by the limited availability of airborne hyperspectral sensors. Nonetheless, the high accuracies achieved in northern Yellowstone streams indicate that HSRH imagery can be a powerful tool for watershed-wide mapping, monitoring, and modeling of streams.  相似文献   

金沙江某水电站库区泥石流地质灾害研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李进元 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2003,14(3):44-49

金沙江是我国水能资源最为丰富的江河之一，但在金沙江上修建水库，泥石流是经常遇到的地质灾害问题。文章在详细调查了库区地层岩性、构造、滑坡的前提下，结合金沙江某水库区泥石流发育与降雨、地层岩性、构造、滑坡及地形地貌的关系深入探讨了库区泥石流的类型、规模、特征及发育阶段。研究表明：(1)本库区泥石流活动历史久远，泥石流地质灾害活跃，在部分泥石流地质灾害衰退的同时，更多的泥石流沟在逐步形成：(2)水库蓄水，减小了泥石流沟的比降，会在一定程度上降低泥石流的活动性及破坏能力；(3)泥石流对水库的影响主要为输送泥沙，造成水库淤积。  相似文献   

重庆市北碚醪糟坪泥石流防治工程探讨     

冯俊录 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2003,14(3):136-137,141

北碚醪糟坪泥石流防治工程，在施工中使用了多工艺方法，泥石流前缘采用桩、粱、锚支挡工程，相互连接及帷幕灌浆，改变土质性能，加强稳定性，泥石流中段大胆采用碎石毛石重力坝，阻拦上部泥石流，加上盲沟连接碎石桩和重力坎，排泄地下水、地表水。为了防止泥石流上段北岸继续造成滑塌，在北岸进行护坡桩保护。后缘是根据彻底根治原则，用人工挖孔抗滑桩，桩上端与横粱相连，粱与锚桩连接，切断了泥石流物质来源。该泥石流是地表水和地下水不畅通而引起的，在泥石流中下部修建了盲沟网格，明渠修建在下部外围稳定的土体上，水渠沟沟相通，最后集中排泄到明渠中流走。该泥石流采用综合整治方法，大胆使用碎石桩毛石重力坎，这一工艺获得了理想效果。  相似文献   

贾汪煤田为何未能向北东继续延伸     

刘明雷  冯建强 《中国煤田地质》2003,15(2):5-7

贾汪煤田的基本构造形态为贾汪向斜。通过对贾汪向斜北东延长段原地系统和外来系统的分析研究，认为在贾汪石炭——二叠纪煤田北界伏山前断裂的北东盘上，受构造应力的影响，奥陶系沿着其与寒武系界面间的软弱层被推覆，在原地代之以大面积分布的是青白口——震旦系及部分寒武系而非石炭——二叠系，从而造成了贾汪煤田没有向北东继续延伸。  相似文献   

比奥固结理论在堆载预压加固工程场地中运用   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：4  

徐书平  刘祖德 《岩土力学》2003,24(2):307-310

运用平面应变比奥固结有限单元法，对南京某钢铁厂江边原料厂采用堆载预压结合塑料排水板处理的软土地基进行了计算，得到了较为理想的效果。计算中将塑料排水板合理地简化成等效砂墙，理论计算结果与实测结果吻合较好。验证了计算方法是合理可行的。  相似文献