中国人类福祉变化的驱动效应及时空分异   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

王圣云 《地理科学进展》2016,35(5):632-643

为建立碳排放敏感性人类福祉指数(HWI),运用LMDI方法对全国、区域及省区层面人类福祉变化的驱动效应及其时空分异进行分析,并得出以下结论：①改革开放30多年来,中国人类福祉水平不断提高,正向世界高人类福祉水平推进,但2005年以后人类福祉提升所付出的生态环境代价越来越大;②在1980-2010年期间的中国人类福祉提升中,2000年以前由经济效应和技术进步效应共同驱动,2000年以后则以经济效应驱动为主;③经济增长、技术进步和生态效率等因素共同影响中国区域人类福祉演变趋势。其中,经济增长和技术进步是主要驱动力,而生态效率效应则是主要的抑制力;从四大区域来看,提高技术进步和经济效率是东部地区提升人类福祉最主要的驱动因素,经济增长是中部、西部、东北地区提升人类福祉的核心驱动力;④中国人类福祉变化驱动效应可归纳为4种区域模式。其中,上海是技术效应为主的驱动模式,江西、湖南、四川、甘肃是经济效应为主的驱动模式,北京是“生态效率效应+技术效应”组合驱动模式,其他省区主要是“经济效应+技术效应”组合驱动模式;⑤中国应实施兼顾降低碳排放和提高人类福祉的低碳人文发展战略,着力扭转生态效率因素的减量效应;逐步改变经济效应为主推动人类福祉提升的驱动模式,构建人类福祉可持续提升的多元驱动模式。  相似文献   

城市交通效率的多目标评价方法研究——以北京市城六区为例   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

季珏  高晓路  刘星辰 《地理科学进展》2016,35(1):118-125

高速城镇化和机动化阶段,面临与日剧增的环境压力,城市交通的多目标发展成为交通可持续发展的关键。在提升居民出行满意度的同时,降低交通碳排放是目前及未来城市交通可持续发展关注的核心目标,是城市交通效率的主要内涵。由此,本文从交通出行便捷与交通碳减排双目标综合评估的角度,提出基于中观尺度的城市交通出行满意度和交通碳排放的定量测算方法;并利用数据包络分析(Data Envelopment Analysis, DEA)法探讨城市交通综合效率评价方法。对北京市城六区的实证结果显示,在三环以内地区,城市交通综合效率较高,五环以外大部分地区较差。交通综合效率较高的地区集中分布于：①西三环至西四环万寿路街道的公主坟-五棵松地区。②北三环和平里街道安贞桥附近地区。③东北三环的三里屯地区。而综合效率较差的地区大多位于城市外围,例如西北六环周边,西南五环至西南六环部分地区,以及东五环外常营地区等,交通碳排放较高是这些地区交通效率较差的主要原因。此外,交通效率的空间差异与地理空间环境的差异性呈现高度的相关。例如,交通效率较差的地区大多是高档别墅区集聚的地区,以及城市五环周边公共交通不完善的部分居住区。通勤中机动化比例较高和通勤距离较长是碳排放强度较高的主要原因。  相似文献   

河南省碳源碳汇的时空变化研究   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

王喜  鲁丰先  秦耀辰  孙艳芳 《地理科学进展》2016,35(8):941-951

碳源、碳汇是影响低碳发展的重要因素,由其形成的碳盈亏是区域低碳经济发展战略及政策制定的重要依据。本文基于能源消耗数据、主要工业产品产量,参考IPCC的碳排放标准,结合其他相关研究,计算了河南省能源消耗及水泥、钢铁、合成氨生产过程中产生的碳排放;在对研究区遥感影像处理的基础上,通过归一化植被指数(NDVI),将河南省的碳汇分为耕地、林地和草地,根据各种植被的碳排放和碳吸收系数,计算了河南省的碳汇及其变化,并对碳盈亏及其空间变化进行分析。结果表明：①研究期内,河南省碳排放及人均碳排放呈上升趋势,碳排放总量及人均碳排放年均分别增长11.22%和10.72%,而且空间差异明显,豫西、豫北、豫中地区人均碳排放相对较高,而豫南、豫东南地区则相对较低。②能源消耗是河南省的主要碳源,其碳排放量呈逐年增加趋势,但所占比重在不断下降;水泥、钢铁是除能源消耗外的另一种主要的排放源,其碳排放量及所占比重则呈逐年上升趋势。③河南省碳汇主要以林地和耕地为主,草地所占比重很小;全省碳汇呈减少趋势,2005-2013年期间减少了7.40%(47.05万t),年均减少5.88万t。④河南省总体上呈现碳亏状态,研究期内碳亏呈增长趋势,且碳亏的地区数量也在增加,总的来看,豫南、豫东南、豫西地区处于碳盈或弱碳亏状态,豫中及豫北地区处于较严重的碳亏状态。⑤河南省应通过改善能源结构、调整产业结构、优化用地布局等措施,减少碳源,增加碳汇,通过区域碳补偿或生态补偿等手段鼓励碳盈地区减源增汇,为低碳发展创造良好的外部环境。  相似文献   

近20年来中国能源消费碳排放时空格局动态   总被引：5，自引：3，他引：2  

高长春  刘贤赵  李朝奎  张勇  余光辉  宿庆  田艳林 《地理科学进展》2016,35(6):747-757

CO₂等温室气体引起的全球气候变暖是对人类社会可持续发展的严峻挑战。基于IPCC提供的参考方法,在对中国大陆30个省区(不含西藏)能源消费碳排放量估算的基础上,运用ESTDA框架,通过ESDA、LISA时间路径、时空跃迁和标准差椭圆等方法,从时空耦合的角度分析了1995-2014年中国能源消费碳排放时空格局动态性。结果表明：①近20年来中国省域碳排放具有显著的空间正相关性,碳排放空间差异呈先缩小后扩大的趋势;②LISA时间路径分析显示,中国大部分省区的局部空间结构具有较强的稳定性,1995-2001年和2002-2014年2个时段相对长度都小于平均长度的省区均为18个,大部分南方省区在空间依赖方向上的波动性呈增强趋势,而北方大多数省区则保持相对稳定;③出现协同运动的省区由1995-2001年的13个下降到2002-2014年的10个,表明中国碳排放空间格局具有一定的空间整合性,但呈减弱趋势;④中国省域碳排放的局部空间关联模式和集聚特征具有较强的稳定性,表现为一定的路径依赖或空间锁定特征;⑤碳排放重心在113.739°~114.324°E、34.475°~35.036°N之间变动,整体上有向西北方向移动的趋势。中国碳排放空间分布呈东北—西南格局,且有逐步向正北—正南转变的趋势。中国碳减排的重点是加快发展清洁能源与提高能效并重,优化能源结构和促进各省区产业结构转型,制定差异化的省域碳减排政策,建立碳交易制度。  相似文献   

Vertical distribution of Artemisia halodendron root system in relation to soil properties in Horqin Sandy Land, NE China     

YongQing Luo  XueYong Zhao  JiePing Ding  Tao Wang 《寒旱区科学》2016,8(5):411-418

Root distribution plays an important role in both vegetation establishment and restoration of degraded land through influencing soil property and vegetation growth. Root distribution at 0~60 cm depth of A. halodendron was investigated in Horqin Sandy Land. Soil organic carbon (SOC) and nitrogen (SN) concentration as well as carbon and nitrogen in root biomass and necromass were measured. Root length density (RLD) was estimated. Total root biomass, necromass and the RLD at 0~60 cm depth was 172 g/m², 245 g/m², and 368 m/m², respectively. Both biomass and necromass of A. halodendron roots decreased with soil depth, live roots were mainly at 0~20 cm (76% of biomass and 63% of root length), while 73% of the necromass was within 0~30 cm depth. N concentration of roots (biomass and necromass) was about 1.0% and 1.5%, respectively. There were significant differences in SOC concentration between soil layers, but insignificant for SN. Soil C/N ratio decreased with depth (P<0.05). C and N storage for belowground system at 0~60 cm decreased markedly with depth; 41.4% of C and 31.7% of N were allocated to the 0~10 cm layer. Root bio- and necromass together contained similar amount of C to that of the soil itself in the top layer. N stock was dominated by soil nitrogen at all depths, but more so in deeper layers. It is clear that differentiating between soil layers will aid in interpreting A. halodendron efficiency in soil restoration in sandy land.  相似文献   

Compliance of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol in the first commitment period     

Igor Shishlov  Romain Morel  Valentin Bellassen 《Climate Policy》2016,16(6):768-782

This article provides an ex post analysis of the compliance of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol during the first commitment period (2008–2012) based on the final data for national GHG emissions and exchanges in carbon units that became available at the end of 2015. On the domestic level, among the 36 countries that fully participated in the Kyoto Protocol, only nine countries emitted higher levels of GHGs than committed and therefore had to resort to flexibility mechanisms. On the international level – i.e. after the use of flexibility mechanisms – all Annex B Parties are in compliance. Countries implemented different compliance strategies: purchasing carbon units abroad, stimulating the domestic use of carbon credits by the private sector and incentivizing domestic emission reductions through climate policies.

Overall, the countries party to the Protocol surpassed their aggregate commitment by an average 2.4 GtCO₂e yr^–1. Of the possible explanations for this overachievement, ‘hot-air’ was estimated at 2.2 GtCO₂e yr^–1, while accounting rules for land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) further removed 0.4 GtCO₂e yr^–1 from the net result excluding LULUCF. The hypothetical participation of the US and Canada would have reduced this overachievement by a net 1 GtCO₂e yr^–1. None of these factors – some of which may be deemed illegitimate – would therefore on its own have led to global non-compliance, even without use of the 0.3 GtCO₂e of annual emissions reductions generated by the Clean Development Mechanism. The impact of domestic policies and ‘carbon leakage’ – neither of which is quantitatively assessed here – should not be neglected either.

Policy relevance

Given the ongoing evolution of the international climate regime and the adoption of the Paris Agreement in December 2015, we believe that there is a need to evaluate the results of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. To our knowledge there has been no overarching quantitative ex post assessment of the Kyoto Protocol based on the final emissions data for 2008–2012, which became available in late 2015. This article attempts to fill this gap, focusing on the domestic and international compliance of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol in the first commitment period.  相似文献   

After monetary policy,climate policy: is delegation the key to EU ETS reform?     

G. Grosjean  W. Acworth  C. Flachsland  R. Marschinski 《Climate Policy》2016,16(1):1-25

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The (ir)relevance of transaction costs in climate policy instrument choice: an analysis of the EU and the US     

Fabian Joas  Christian Flachsland 《Climate Policy》2016,16(1):26-49

This article assesses the relevance of ex post transaction costs in the choice of climate policy instruments in the EU (focusing mainly on the example of Germany) and the US. It reviews all publicly available empirical ex post transaction cost studies of climate policy instruments broken down by the main private and public sector cost factors and offers hypotheses on how these factors may scale depending on instrument design and other contextual factors. The key finding from the evaluated schemes is that it is possible to reject the hypothesis that asymmetries in ex post transaction costs across instruments are large and, thus, play a pivotal role in climate policy instrument choice. Both total and relative ex post transaction costs can be considered low. This conjecture differs from the experience in other areas of environmental policy instruments where high total transaction costs are considered to be important factors in the overall assessment of optimal environmental policy choice. Against this background, the main claim of this article is that in climate policy instrument choice, ex post transaction cost considerations play a minor role in large countries that feature similar institutional characteristics as the EU and the US. Rather, the focus should be on the efficiency properties of instruments for incentivizing abatement, as well as equity and political economy considerations (and other societally relevant objectives). In order to inform transaction cost considerations in climate policy instrument choice in countries that adopt new climate policies, more data would be desirable in order to enable more robust estimates of design- and context-specific transaction-cost scaling factors.

Policy relevance

The findings of this study can help inform policy makers who plan to set up novel climate policy instruments. The results indicate that ex post transaction costs play a minor role for large countries that feature similar institutional characteristics as the EU and the US. For instrument design the focus should rather be on efficiency properties of instruments in incentivizing abatement, as well as equity and political economy considerations (and other societally relevant objectives).  相似文献   

Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry Bias on Isotope Ratios in Dolomite–Ankerite,Part II: δ13C Matrix Effects          下载免费PDF全文

Maciej G. Śliwiński  Kouki Kitajima  Reinhard Kozdon  Michael J. Spicuzza  John H. Fournelle  Adam Denny  John W. Valley 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2016,40(2):173-184

This study is Part II of a series that documents the development of a suite of calibration reference materials for in situ SIMS analysis of stable isotope ratios in Ca‐Mg‐Fe carbonates. Part I explored the effects of Fe²⁺ substitution on SIMS δ¹⁸O bias measured from the dolomite–ankerite solid solution series [CaMg(CO₃)₂–CaFe(CO₃)₂], whereas this complementary work explores the compositional dependence of SIMS δ¹³C bias (calibrated range: Fe# = 0.004–0.789, where Fe# = molar Fe/(Mg+Fe)). Under routine operating conditions for carbonate δ¹³C analysis at WiscSIMS (CAMECA IMS 1280), the magnitude of instrumental bias increased exponentially by 2.5–5.5‰ (session‐specific) with increasing Fe‐content in the dolomite structure, but appeared insensitive to minor Mn substitution [< 2.6 mole % Mn/(Ca+Mg+Fe+Mn)]. The compositional dependence of bias (i.e., the matrix effect) was expressed using the Hill equation, yielding calibration residual values ≤ 0.3‰ relative to CRM NBS‐19 for eleven carbonate reference materials (6‐μm‐diameter spot size measurements). Based on the spot‐to‐spot repeatability of a drift monitor material that ‘bracketed’ each set of ten sample‐spot analyses, the analytical precision was ± 0.6–1.2‰ (2s, standard deviations). The analytical uncertainty for individual sample analyses was approximated by combining the precision and calibration residual values (propagated in quadrature), suggesting an uncertainty of ± 1.0–1.5‰ (2s).  相似文献   

Assessing the potential of REDD+ in a production mangrove forest in Malaysia using stakeholder analysis and ecosystem services mapping     

《Marine Policy》2016

Mangrove forests are ecologically important and carbon-rich coastal ecosystems that provide direct and indirect livelihood support for coastal communities. In recent years there has been increased discussion in the policy and scientific communities over how to include mangrove forests in climate change mitigation initiatives such as REDD+. There are a number of challenges to establishing a successful REDD+ project in mangrove areas, with land tenure and stakeholder entitlements arguably the most challenging. This study examines how REDD+ approaches might be applied to better balance timber production and conservation objectives in the Matang Mangrove Forest Reserve (MMFR), a 40,466 ha mangrove forest area in Malaysia. Stakeholder profiles and needs are linked with ecosystem services to develop an integrated profile of this complex social-ecological system, which has been managed for timber production for more than 100 years, and has recently revealed evidence of declining ecosystem health. The results provide insights into how REDD+ might be operationalised in existing forest areas with traditions of multiple uses, potentially contributing to improved social-ecological outcomes for forests and their diverse stakeholders.  相似文献