2008年T213与德国降水数值预报产品对比检验     

吴曼丽  梁寒  王瀛  沈玉敏 《辽宁气象》2009,(4):22-26

为了解各种数值预报的误差特点,更好地在预报过程中选择数值预报产品作为参考依据,将中国国家气象中心的T213降水预报与德国降水预报分别进行晴雨预报检验,对2008年5—8月东北地区降水资料进行对比分析。结果表明：两种模式24-120h预报正确率为60％-70％,随着预报时效的增加,正确率呈下降趋势,德国降水预报的正确率高于T213,两种预报漏报率均明显小于空报率,T213漏报率较低,为5％左右,德国降水预报空报率较低,为20％左右。对2008年4-6月出现东北冷涡过程的两种模式降水预报进行对比分析,发现德国降水预报正确率明显高于T213预报,对冷涡降水预报有一定的指示意义。  相似文献   

Multi-Source Emission Determination Using an Inverse-Dispersion Technique     

Thomas K. Flesch  Lowry A. Harper  Raymond L. Desjardins  Zhiling Gao  Brian P. Crenna 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2009,132(1):11-30

Inverse-dispersion calculations can be used to infer atmospheric emission rates through a combination of downwind gas concentrations and dispersion model predictions. With multiple concentration sensors downwind of a compound source (whose component positions are known) it is possible to calculate the component emissions. With this in mind, a field experiment was conducted to examine the feasibility of such multi-source inferences, using four synthetic area sources and eight concentration sensors arranged in different configurations. Multi-source problems tend to be mathematically ill-conditioned, as expressed by the condition number κ. In our most successful configuration (average κ = 4.2) the total emissions from all sources were deduced to within 10% on average, while component emissions were deduced to within 50%. In our least successful configuration (average κ = 91) the total emissions were calculated to within only 50%, and component calculations were highly inaccurate. Our study indicates that the most accurate multi-source inferences will occur if each sensor is influenced by only a single source. A “progressive” layout is the next best: one sensor is positioned to “see” only one source, the next sensor is placed to see the first source and another, a third sensor is placed to see the previous two plus a third, and so on. When it is not possible to isolate any sources κ is large and the accuracy of a multi-source inference is doubtful.  相似文献   

一个半线性耦合抛物型方程组爆破解的速率估计     

范萍  李刚  黄瑜 《南京气象学院学报》2008,31(3):441-446

考虑一个方程和非线性边界条件耦合的半线性抛物型方程组,运用Scaling方法、Green函数、Schauder估计等方法,研究该方程组解的爆破速率,并给出非线性反应项和吸收项对爆破速率的影响。  相似文献   

Decameter Type III-Like Bursts     

V. N. Mel’nik  A. A. Konovalenko  H. O. Rucker  B. P. Rutkevych  V. V. Dorovskyy  E. P. Abranin  A. I. Brazhenko  A. A. Stanislavskii  A. Lecacheux 《Solar physics》2008,250(1):133-145

We report the first observations of Type III-like bursts at frequencies 10 – 30 MHz. More than 1000 such bursts during 2002 – 2004 have been analyzed. The frequency drift of these bursts is several times that of decameter Type III bursts. A typical duration of the Type III-like bursts is 1 – 2 s. These bursts are mainly observed when the source active region is located within a few days from the central meridian. The drift rate of the Type III-like bursts can take a large value by considering the velocity of Type III electrons and the group velocity of generated electromagnetic waves.  相似文献   

Low post-Cenomanian denudation depths across the Brazilian Northeast: Implications for long-term landscape evolution at a transform continental margin     

Jean-Pierre Peulvast  Vanda Claudino Sales  Franois Btard  Yanni Gunnell 《Global and Planetary Change》2008,62(1-2):39-60

The Brazilian Northeast affords good opportunities for obtaining reliable timings and rates of landscape evolution based on stratigraphic correlations across a vast region. The landscape formed in the context of an episodically fluctuating but continuously falling base level since the Cenomanian. After formation of the transform passive margin in Aptian times, landscape development was further driven by a swell-like uplift with its crest situated  300 km from the coastline. The seaward flank of this swell or broad monocline between the interior Araripe and coastal Potiguar basins was eroded, and currently forms a deeply embayed plain bordered by a semi-circular, north-facing erosional escarpment. The post-Cenomanian uplift caused an inversion of the Cretaceous basins and generated a landscape in which the most elevated landforms correspond either to resistant Mesozoic sedimentary caprock, or to eroded stumps of syn-rift Cretaceous footwall uplands. Denudation in the last 90 My never exceeded mean rates of 10 m·My^− 1 and exhumed a number of Cretaceous stratigraphic unconformities. As a result, some topographic surfaces at low elevations are effectively Mesozoic land surfaces that became re-exposed in Cenozoic times. The Neogene Barreiras Formation forms a continuous and mostly clastic apron near the coast. It testifies to the last peak of erosion in the hinterland and coincided with the onset of more arid climates at  13 Ma or earlier. The semi-circular escarpment is not directly related to the initial breakup rift flanks, which had been mostly eroded before the end of the Mesozoic, but the cause and exact timing of post-Cenomanian crustal upwarping are poorly constrained. It could perhaps have been a flexural response of the low-rigidity lithosphere to sediment loads on the margin, and thus a slowly ongoing process since the late Cretaceous. Uplift could instead be the consequence of a more discrete dynamic event related either to Oligocene magmatism in the region, or to continental-scale far-field stresses determined by Andean convergence.  相似文献   

Late Holocene environmental changes and anthropogenic impact in Dee Why Lagoon,New South Wales     

C. Chagué  D. Edwards  J. Ruszczyk  P. Gadd  A. Zawadzki  G. Jacobsen 《Australian Journal of Earth Sciences》2019,66(5):657-670

Late Holocene environmental changes were examined in Dee Why Lagoon, New South Wales, based on the sedimentological, geochemical and geochronological analysis of six cores collected from the fluvial delta and lagoon basin. The lagoon formed about 7300–7200?cal yr BP, following the post-glacial marine transgression and establishment of a sand barrier. Infilling of the lagoon occurred at a rate of 0.09–0.15?mm/yr until about 3300–3200?cal yr BP, when the barrier closed, resulting in mostly freshwater conditions, as evidenced by a change from pyrite-rich units to sediment containing little sulfur and a lack of foraminifera. Sedimentation rates increased to 0.23 then 0.43?mm/yr until about 100?years ago. Post-European land clearance led to an increase in sedimentation rates to 1.0–1.3?mm/yr on the fluvial delta, which are lower than those from other wave-dominated estuaries in New South Wales as well as those estimated by previous studies in Dee Why Lagoon. Our study shows that the fluvial delta started forming much earlier than originally thought, based on results of radiometric dating, and confirmed using sedimentological and geochemical data, as well as a critical examination of historic aerial photographs. Human impact has resulted in an increase in heavy metal (Cu, Pb, Zn) and metalloid (As) concentrations in the recent sediment, most likely attributed to stormwater discharge. Pb and As concentrations are above the ANZECC high sediment quality guideline values at the site closest to the stormwater outlet, with As-based pesticides one of the possible sources. Using the mean enrichment quotient, which is based on normalised Cu, Pb and Zn concentrations over their normalised background concentrations, we show that the surface sediments in Dee Why Lagoon are severely enriched, reflecting the recent anthropogenic impact that has also led to an increase in sedimentation rates.  相似文献   

Downscaling climate-model output in mountainous terrain using local topographic lapse rates for hydrologic modeling of climate-change impacts     

Sarah Praskievicz 《自然地理学》2018,39(2):99-117

One of the challenges in using general circulation model (GCM) output is the need to downscale beyond the model’s coarse spatial grid for use in hydrologic modeling of climate-change impacts. In mountainous terrain, using elevation as a primary control on temperature and precipitation at the local scale provides the potential for topographic variables to be used to adjust climate-model output. Here, local topographic lapse rates (LTLR) were estimated from gridded climate data for the Pacific Northwest of the United States and used to downscale GCM output. Skill scores were calculated for the LTLR-downscaled climate-model output relative to an existing set of model output downscaled using the established statistical downscaling technique of localized constructed analogs (LOCA). The results indicate that the LTLR method performs well in the mountainous study region relative to the LOCA method. LTLR downscaling offers a promising method for downscaling climate-model output in regions in which elevation strongly controls climate, particularly for studying impacts of future climate change on water resources.  相似文献   

Detrital zircon and apatite constraints on depositional ages,sedimentation rates and provenance: Pliocene Productive Series,South Caspian Basin,Azerbaijan     

《Basin Research》2018,30(5):835-862

We used detrital zircon U/Pb geochronology and apatite (U–Th–Sm)/He thermochronology to better constrain depositional ages and sedimentation rates for the Pliocene Productive Series in Azerbaijan. U/Pb analysis of 1,379 detrital zircon grains and (U–Th–Sm)/He analysis of 57 apatite grains—from Kirmaky Valley and Yasamal Valley onshore sections, Absheron Peninsula—yielded two distinct sub‐populations: “young” Neogene grains and “old” Mesozoic, Palaeozoic and Proterozoic/Archean grains. The large numbers of Neogene age grains (around 10% of all grain ages) provided a new absolute age constraint on the maximum depositional age of the Lower Productive Series of 4.0 Myr. These “young” Neogene zircon grains most likely originated from volcanic ash falls sourced from the Lesser Caucasus or Talesh Mountains. In this paper we propose a timescale scenario using the maximum depositional age of the Productive Series from detrital zircon grain U/Pb constraints. Potential consequences and limitations of using apatite (U–Th–Sm)/He dating method in estimating maximum depositional ages are also discussed. These new age constraints for the Lower Productive Series gave much faster sedimentation rates than previously estimated: 1.3 km/Myr in the South Caspian Basin margin outcrops and up to 3.9 km/Myr in the basin centre. The sedimentation rates are one of the highest in comparison to other sedimentary basins and coeval to global increase in sedimentation rates 2–4 Myr. The older group of detrital zircon grains constitutes the majority of grains in all sample sets (~80%). These older ages are inferred to reflect the provenance of the Productive Series sediment. This sediment is interpreted to have been derived from the Proterozoic and Archean crystalline basement rocks and Phanerozoic cover of the East European Craton, Proterozoic/Palaeozoic rocks of the Ural Mountains and Mesozoic sedimentary rocks of the Greater Caucasus. This sediment was likely supplied from northerly sourced drainage that emptied into the South Caspian Basin.  相似文献   

Observations of Dynamic Turbulence in the Lower Stratosphere over Inner Mongolia Using a High-resolution Balloon Sensor Constant Temperature Anemometer     

Xiaoyu REN  Yi LIU  Zhaonan CAI  Yuli ZHANG 《大气科学进展》2022,39(3):519-528

We present characterizations of the dynamic turbulence in the lower stratosphere measured by a new balloon-based system designed for detecting finer scale dynamic turbulence. The balloon-based system included a constant temperature anemometer(CTA) operating at a sampling rate of 2 k Hz at an ascent speed of 5 m s^-1(corresponding to a vertical resolution of 2.5 mm), an industrial personal computer, batteries, sensors for ambient temperature and humidity, an A/D converter, and others. The system was successfully launched to 24 km altitude over Bayannur City, Inner Mongolia Province. Results show the spatial intermittence of the turbulence layers, with clear boundaries between turbulent and nonturbulent regions. This is the first time that the dynamic turbulence spectrum down to the viscous sub-range has been obtained throughout the lower stratosphere over China. With that, the energy dissipation rates of dynamic turbulence could be calculated with high precision. The profile of the dissipation rates varied from 7.37 × 10^-7 to 4.23 W kg^-1 and increased with altitude in the stratosphere.  相似文献   

Participation in higher education: A geodemographic perspective on the potential for further expansion in student numbers     

Peter Batey  Peter Brown  Mark Corver 《Journal of Geographical Systems》1999,1(3):277-303

Higher education in England has expanded rapidly in the last ten years with the result that currently more than 30% of young people go on to university. Expansion is likely to continue following the recommendations of a national committee of inquiry (the Dearing Committee). The participation rate is known to vary substantially among social groups and between geographical areas. In this paper the participation rate is calculated using a new measure, the Young Entrants Index (YEI), and the extent of variation by region, gender and residential neighbourhood type established. The Super Profiles geodemographic system is used to facilitate the latter. This is shown to be a powerful discriminator and to offer great potential as an alternative analytical approach to the conventional social class categories, based on parental occupation, that have formed the basis of most participation studies to date. Received: 20 October 1998/Accepted: 5 May 1999  相似文献