Analysing Lava Risk for the Etnean Area: Simulation by Cellular Automata Methods     

Crisci  G. M.  Di Gregorio  S.  Rongo  R.  Spataro  W.  Nicoletta  F. 《Natural Hazards》1999,20(2-3):215-229

The model SCIARA, based on the Cellular Automata paradigm, is a versatile instrument whose scope is to analyse volcanic risk from lava flows.The possible fields of intervention are:[(a)] Long term forecasting of the flow direction at various eruption rates and points of emission by locating potential risk areas and permitting the creation of detailed maps of risk;[(b)] The possibility to follow the progress of an event and predict its evolution;[(c)] The verification of the possible effects of human intervention on real or simulated flows in stream deviation.A risk scenario has been developed for the Etnean territories of the towns of Nicolosi, Pedara and S. Alfio, simulating possible episodes with different vent locations along the fracture opened in the 1989 eruption and successively activated in the 1991–1993 eruption.The main characteristics of lava flows, that might be dangerous to the inhabited areas, have been analysed on the basis of the carried out Cellular Automata.  相似文献   

Estimating Petroleum Resources Using Geo-Anchored Method--A Sensitivity Study   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Chen  Zhuoheng  Sinding-Larsen  Richard 《Natural Resources Research》1999,8(1):49-58

The Geo-anchored method, based on a moment-type estimator, has been developed for estimating parent population properties from a successive sample of discoveries. By substituting the expectation of the waiting time z _(n+1) of the (n + 1) ^th discovery to occurrence for an unknown parameter in the anchored method, the Geo-anchored method allows estimation of inclusion probabilities directly from observed data, thus eliminating the need for a priori selection of a value of N, R, or some other feature of the parent population. Because direct estimation of N and R requires an ordered sample, the Geo-anchored method is more sensitive to the data-generating process than the anchored method. This paper presents a sensitivity study on the Geo-anchored method. The test is based on simulated discovery sequences with different assumptions regarding discovery efficiency, exploration maturity, and the shape of the parent field size distribution. As a reference for comparison, estimates from the Horvitz–Thompson estimator also are presented.  相似文献   

Application of DEM overlaying technique in surface subsidence identification─a case study in Ruqigou coal mining area of Ningxia,China     

CHEN Li-ding 《地理学报(英文版)》1999,(1)

1IntroductionSubsidence,asverticalmovementoftheeallof'USt,occurredinmanypartsoftheworld,Particularlyindenselypopulateddeltalcregions.Withocctirrenceofsurfacesubsidence,alotofdamagehasbeeninduced.Surfacesubsidencecanberesultedfromnabscauses.suchastectonicinchonandsealevelrise,fromman-madeinducedcauses,suchasexcessivewithdrawalofgroundwater,geothennalfluids.oilandgas,orextrachonofcoal,sulphur,goldandothersolidsthroughminingorUndergroundconstrUchon(t'Unnelling),orfromother"dxedcausessuchashydro…  相似文献   

地裂缝场地施工降水对地表沉降和地层应力的影响研究     

王庆兵  黄强兵  闫钰丰  杨招  胡士伟  雷建 《地质力学学报》2020,26(2):221-231

地裂缝是西安市典型的城市地质灾害，地下水位的变化是诱发地裂缝活动的重要因素。以西安地铁六号线暗挖段施工降水为研究背景，基于有限元数值模拟计算，分析了地裂缝场地施工降水引起的地表沉降规律和地层应力变化特征。计算结果表明:当地下水位下降时，地表沉降量上盘大于下盘，地裂缝带两侧地表存在差异沉降的现象，最大差异沉降量与地下水位下降深度近似呈直线关系；不同位置处地表的横向沉降呈现出"Z"形的变化特征，差异沉降区随地裂缝位置的变动而变化，且差异沉降量与横向地表位置近似呈二次函数曲线关系；地层竖向应力随着地下水位下降而增大，地裂缝位置处地层应力存在突变现象，上下盘应力影响区与地层深度近似呈三次函数曲线关系；基于分层总和法计算了地下水位下降时地表沉降量的解析解，并与数值模拟结果进行对比，发现两种方法计算结果基本一致，得到了计算地表最大沉降量的经验公式。研究结果可为地裂缝场地地铁隧道及其他地下工程安全施工提供科学指导。   相似文献   

An experiment on reservoir representation schemes to improve hydrologic prediction: coupling the national water model with the HEC-ResSim     

Jungho Kim  Laura Read  Lynn E. Johnson  David Gochis  Rob Cifelli  Heechan Han 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(10):1652-1666

ABSTRACT

This study experiments with reservoir representation schemes to improve the ability to model active water management in the National Water Model (NWM). For this purpose, we developed an integrated water management model, NWM-ResSim, by coupling the NWM with HEC-ResSim, and two reservoir representation schemes are tested: simulation of reservoir operations and retrieval of scheduled operations. The experiments focus on a pilot reservoir domain in the Russian River basin – Lake Mendocino, California – and its contributing watershed. The evaluation results suggest that the NWM-ResSim improves the simulation performance of reservoir outflow from this managed reservoir over the NWM default level pool routing scheme. The degree of this improvement depends on the suitability of the operation guidance; the reservoir operations simulation scheme could have acceptable errors for the purposes of water resources management, but not for flood operations. Results of the retrieval scheme of scheduled operations demonstrated better performance for sub-daily flood operations.  相似文献   

Distributions of secondary muons at sea level from cosmic gamma rays below 10 TeV     

J. Poirier  S. Roesler  A. Fass 《Astroparticle Physics》2002,17(4):1247-458

The Monte Carlo program is used to predict the distributions of the muons which originate from primary cosmic gamma rays and reach sea level. The main result is the angular distribution of muons produced by vertical gamma rays which is necessary to predict the inherent angular resolution of any instrument utilizing muons to infer properties of gamma ray primaries. Furthermore, various physical effects are discussed which affect these distributions in differing proportions.  相似文献   

Numerical Simulation of Strongly Stratified Flow Over a Three-Dimensional Hill     

Li Ding  Ronald J. Calhoun  Robert L. Street 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2003,107(1):81-114

A numerical study of stably stratified flow over a three-dimensional hill is presented. Large-eddy simulation is used here to examine in detail the laboratory experimental flows described in the landmark work of Hunt and Snyder about stratified flow over a hill. The flow is linearly stratified and U/Nh is varied from 0.2 to 1.0. Here N and U are the buoyancy frequency and freestream velocity respectively, and h is the height of the hill. The Reynolds number based on the hill height is varied from 365 to 2968. The characteristic flow patterns at various values of U/Nh have been obtained and they are in good agreement with earlier theoretical and experimental results. It is shown that the flow field cannot be predicted by Drazin's theory when recirculation exists at the leeside of the hill even at UNh 1. The wake structure agrees well with a two-dimensional wake assumption when U/Nh 1 but lee waves start to influence the wake structure as U/Nh increases. The dividing-streamline heights obtained in the simulation are in accordance with experimental results and Sheppard's formula. The energy loss along the dividing streamline due to friction/turbulence approximately offsets the energy gained from pressure field. When lee waves are present, linear theory always underestimates the amplitude and overestimates the wavelength of three-dimensional lee waves. The simulated variations of drag coefficients with the parameterK (=ND/ U) are qualitatively consistent with experimental data and linear theory. Here D is the depth of the tank.  相似文献   

Effects of Temperature and Humidity upon the Entrainment of Sedimentary Particles by Wind   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Cheryl Mckenna Neuman 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2003,108(1):61-89

Aeolian transport of sedimentary particles is a well-recognized phenomenon in cold regions, but the effect of low temperature (T) and specific humidity (q) upon particle entrainment has not previously been investigated. This study reports on wind-tunnel experiments (-12 °C T 32 °C, and 1 g kg^-1 q 10 g kg^-1) that suggest the aerodynamic drag required to entrain sand sized particles can be 30% lower in cold or high latitude settings, as compared to hot deserts. For any given regional wind velocity, this effect will increase the wind strength index and thereby the proportion of time a surface is active at low temperature.The influence of air temperature and humidity upon the threshold for particle motion is determined by three physical processes: (1) The effect of air viscosity and density on the fluid drag force acting to dislodge sedimentary particles; (2) the effect of viscosity on the turbulent wake shed from these particles, and the frequency and magnitude of burst-sweep events; and (3) the development of inter-particle cohesion via adsorbed water. This study considers the relative importance of each of these processes. The threshold friction velocity model of Shao and Lu is revised to incorporate the inter-particle force associated with hygroscopic water. It is found to perform well when tested against the experimental data obtained for this study.  相似文献   

南北地震带应力场演变的数值模拟研究   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

曹雪峰  尹京苑  杨立明 《地震工程学报》2003,25(3):221-225,245

应用有限元方法,考虑主要地质构造情况,就粘弹介质状态下南北地震带及其相邻区域的应力场时空演变过程进行了数值模拟研究．计算了10万零10年累积载荷作用下模型的应力场演变,发现在周边板块不断推挤作用下,当整个南北带的应力松弛趋于稳定后,带上应力场的总体扰动大小取决于印度-澳大利亚板块、菲律宾板块和太平洋板块的共同作用．南北地震带上呈现出的“地震南北呼应”现象,就是区域应力场达到平衡态后,整个南北带对外载荷(板块边界力)作用的总体反应．  相似文献   

Kinetic study of the hydrocarbon generation from Upper Paleozoic coals in Ordos Basin   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

付少英  彭平安  张文正  刘金钟  李剑峰  昝川莉 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2003,46(4):333-341

When organic matter during geological processes is affected by a variety of factors such as paleotemperature, and time, complicated chemical reactions will occur, finally resulting in the generation of petroleum and natural gas. These reactions leading to…  相似文献