地下巷道弹性位移反分析各种优化方法的探讨   总被引：16，自引：5，他引：16  

吕爱钟 《岩土力学》1996,17(2):29-34

探讨了６种最优化方法（鲍威尔法、单纯形加速法、阻尼最小二乘法、变尺度法、模式搜索法和变量轮换法）在巷道弹性位移反分析中的应用情况。从参数初始点的选择、收敛速度、收敛精度和可靠性方面评价了这６种无约束最优化方法的优劣。  相似文献   

程裕淇主编《中国地层典》记失   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

张守信 《地质科学》2005,40(1):145-152

文章列数了《中国地层典》5个方面的重要失误:不是中国地层名称全览性的工具书,急于采用处于争议中的术语,大量地层单位名称的出处因考证不到位而形成张冠李戴,采用的历史优先律不是国际共识,在编撰过程中建立新名称。文章用选出的泰山杂岩、滹沱系、秦岭片岩和仑山石灰岩4个名称为例说明《中国地层典》对其出处的考证不到位,进而论证《中国地层典》的诸多解释可信度低。文章严肃地指出“历史优先律”给中国地层学造成的不良后果:它破坏了地层命名法的标准性,颠倒了中国地层命名史,干扰了中国地层名称的管理。  相似文献   

Assessing the reliability of probabilistic flood inundation model predictions          下载免费PDF全文

Elisabeth Stephens  Paul Bates 《水文研究》2015,29(19):4264-4283

An ability to quantify the reliability of probabilistic flood inundation predictions is a requirement not only for guiding model development but also for their successful application. Probabilistic flood inundation predictions are usually produced by choosing a method of weighting the model parameter space, but previous study suggests that this choice leads to clear differences in inundation probabilities. This study aims to address the evaluation of the reliability of these probabilistic predictions. However, a lack of an adequate number of observations of flood inundation for a catchment limits the application of conventional methods of evaluating predictive reliability. Consequently, attempts have been made to assess the reliability of probabilistic predictions using multiple observations from a single flood event. Here, a LISFLOOD‐FP hydraulic model of an extreme (>1 in 1000 years) flood event in Cockermouth, UK, is constructed and calibrated using multiple performance measures from both peak flood wrack mark data and aerial photography captured post‐peak. These measures are used in weighting the parameter space to produce multiple probabilistic predictions for the event. Two methods of assessing the reliability of these probabilistic predictions using limited observations are utilized; an existing method assessing the binary pattern of flooding, and a method developed in this paper to assess predictions of water surface elevation. This study finds that the water surface elevation method has both a better diagnostic and discriminatory ability, but this result is likely to be sensitive to the unknown uncertainties in the upstream boundary condition. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

An efficient quasi-Newton approximation-based SORM to estimate the reliability of geotechnical problems     

《Computers and Geotechnics》2016

The first order reliability method (FORM) is efficient, but it has limited accuracy; the second order reliability method (SORM) provides greater accuracy, but with additional computational effort. In this study, a new method which integrates two quasi-Newton approximation algorithms is proposed to efficiently estimate the second order reliability of geotechnical problems with reasonable accuracy. In particular, the Hasofer–Lind–Rackwitz–Fiessler–Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno (HLRF–BFGS) algorithm is applied to identify the design point on the limit state function (LSF), and consequently to compute the first order reliability index; whereas the Symmetric Rank-one (SR1) algorithm is nested within the HLRF–BFGS algorithm to compute good approximations, yet with a reduced computational effort, of the Hessian matrix required to compute second order reliabilities. Three typical geotechnical problems are employed to demonstrate the ability of the suggested procedure, and advantages of the proposed approach with respect to conventional alternatives are discussed. Results show that the proposed method is able to achieve the accuracy of conventional SORM, but with a reduced computational cost that is equal to the computational cost of HLRF–BFGS-based FORM.  相似文献   

风云卫星数据服务评价指标的验证分析     

李雪  咸迪  亓永刚  徐喆  钱建梅 《气象科技》2016,44(4):692-696

简述了目前我国风云卫星数据服务以及气象服务效益评估业务的现状,利用层次分析法提出风云卫星数据服务评价的6个1级指标和19个2级指标。设计了风云卫星数据服务评测量表,并采用分半信度、因子分析等方法对量表作信度和效度分析,结果表明所设计的评测量表具有良好的信度和效度,确定了包括服务平台易用性、服务流程规范性、服务响应及时性、服务内容完整性、服务工作主动性、服务宣传广泛性等6个方面的风云卫星数据服务评价指标。  相似文献   

Variability of levee failure mechanisms subject to heavy rainfalls,case studies in Taiwan     

Wen-Chao Huang  Hong-Wen Yu 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2016,10(4):269-279

In this study, the failure mechanisms for Chiuliao 1st Levee and Gueishan Levee in Taiwan were re-examined comprehensively considering the uncertainty of different parameters. Results have shown that for Chiuliao 1st Levee, the slope sliding failure has a higher coefficient of variation (COV). For Gueishan Levee, retaining wall sliding and overturning failure have higher values of COV instead. It can also be found that the scouring depths affect the stability of the levee significantly, therefore, a protecting system for the backfill material may be necessary to increase the stability of the levee effectively.  相似文献   

Effect of 2D spatial variability on slope reliability: A simplified FORM analysis     

《地学前缘(英文版)》2018,9(6):1631-1638

To meet the high demand for reliability based design of slopes, we present in this paper a simplified HLRF(Hasofere Linde Rackwitze Fiessler) iterative algorithm for first-order reliability method(FORM). It is simply formulated in x-space and requires neither transformation of correlated random variables nor optimization tools. The solution can be easily improved by iteratively adjusting the step length. The algorithm is particularly useful to practicing engineers for geotechnical reliability analysis where standalone(deterministic) numerical packages are used. Based on the proposed algorithm and through direct perturbation analysis of random variables, we conducted a case study of earth slope reliability with complete consideration of soil uncertainty and spatial variability.  相似文献   

Structural stability of gravity dams: a progressive assessment considering uncertainties in shear strength parameters     

Mathilde Cordier 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2018,12(2):109-122

Structural sliding stability of gravity dams is generally quantified using deterministic factor of safety, FS_det. Large FS_det (e.g. 3 in normal condition), are used in existing guidelines to guard against material and load uncertainties. Some guidelines allow an arbitrary reduction in FS_det (e.g. 2) when the knowledge in strength parameters increases from material test data. Yet, those reduced FS_det are not based on a rational consideration of uncertainties. Propagation of uncertainties could be done using probabilistic analyses, such as Monte-Carlo simulations (MC) which are complex and challenging for practical use. There is thus a need to develop simplified reliability based safety assessment procedures that could rationalise the adjustment of FS_det. This paper presents a progressive analysis methodology using four safety evaluation formats of increasing complexity: (i) deterministic, (ii) semi-probabilistic (partial coefficient), (iii) reliability based Adjustable Factor of Safety (AFS), and (iv) probabilistic. Comprehensive comparisons are made for the sliding safety evaluation of a 80 m gravity dam. Results are presented in terms of sliding factors of safety, allowable water levels, and demand/capacity ratios. It is shown that the AFS formulation, using direct integration, is simple and practical to use in complement to existing dam safety guidelines before undertaking MC simulations.  相似文献   

Landfill site selection based on reliability concepts using the DRASTIC method and AHP integrated with GIS – a case study of Bengaluru city,India     

L. G. Santhosh  G. L. Sivakumar Babu 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2018,12(3):234-252

The selection of landfill sites for municipal solid waste (MSW) disposal involves consideration of geological, hydrological and environmental parameters which exhibit large spatial variability. Therefore, it is necessary to define, to what extent the chosen sites are reliable such that the probability of environmental pollution and health risks to population is minimal. In the present study, groundwater vulnerability to contamination has been assessed using the standard DRASTIC method. The results showed that the study region has 9.45% of very less, 32.94% of less, 25.47% of moderate, 22.79% of high and 9.35% of very high vulnerable zones. The study also revealed that none of the landfills are located in safe zones. This suggests that it requires proper remedial measures to avoid environmental pollution. A landfill site selection process has been carried out using the Analytical Hierarchy Process integrated with Geographical Information System tools. The obtained results showed that only 3.59?km² (0.08%) of the total area is suitable for landfills. The reliability analysis of the site suitability revealed that landfills are located at unreliable locations where the probability of risk to environmental pollution is high. The presented approach assists decision-makers in selecting reliable locations for the safe disposal of MSW.  相似文献   

GPS网起始数据的误差分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

邢继红 《地理空间信息》2006,4(4):13-15

应用5种GPS控制网起算点坐标误差的分析方法,分析了某地铁二号线西延伸线工程GPS控制网的起算点坐标误差,成功地剔除了误差超限的起算点。  相似文献