台风路径数值预报模式的并行化及路径预报误差分析   总被引：3，自引：6，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

麻素红  瞿安祥张眙 《应用气象学报》2004,15(3):322-328

国家气象中心台风路径数值预报模式经过串行优化及程序并行, 成功地实现了在国产超级计算机神威上的并行运算, 并可满足业务时效要求。基于并行程序及神威机计算平台的台风路径数值预报业务系统于2002年6月30日投入实时运行, 其初估场与侧边界条件从T106L19模式产品升级为T213L31模式产品 (称为基于T213台风预报系统, 原串行系统称为基于T106台风预报系统)。通过对2002年夏秋季台风路径的检验, 总体来看, 基于T213台风预报系统48 h内的平均路径预报误差小于基于T106台风预报系统的路径预报误差。对西行及西北行登陆的台风, 基于T106台风预报系统的48 h预报好于基于T213台风预报系统的预报。对于转向台风而言, 转向后的预报, 基于T213台风预报系统的预报要好于基于T106台风预报系统的预报, 有效地减小了基于T106台风预报系统对转向台风路径预报的系统性误差:即台风转向后预报路径较实况路径偏西。  相似文献   

裂变径迹长度测量标准化研究——锆石蚀刻标准探讨   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

汤云晖袁万明  张本宏董金泉　王世成 《岩矿测试》2004,23(4):251-255

通过不同时间蚀刻的锆石径迹长度测量,确定海南迅速冷却火山型锆石的水平封闭径迹(HCT)平均长度L＝10.93 μm,标准偏差为0.93 μm,可作为锆石长度测量的参照标准.对锆石的蚀刻标准进行了探讨,确立垂直C轴的表面径迹宽度Dpar为(1.0±0.5)μm的蚀刻标准,要求Dpar>1 μm和Dpar<1 μm的颗粒数应大致相当,以及封闭径迹宽度DHCT<1.0 μm的测量标准.  相似文献   

曲线铁路路基下沉病害检测与分析     

杨新安  陈春安  温国春 《岩土力学》2004,25(9):1397-1400

以阐明曲线铁路路基下沉病害检测、基床强度评估和病害成因分析方法为目标，采用轻便动力触探试验和土工试验方法对沪宁线下行k55 450-k55 500曲线路基下沉病害段进行了试验测试，根据轻便动力触探和土工试验结果，计算出曲线路基基床承载力，与曲线线路路基中总应力进行比较，评估了基床强度状况，分析出该段曲线铁路路基病害产生的成因。  相似文献   

列车荷载对平行换乘地铁车站深基坑变形影响   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

高伟君  姚燕明  蔚俊霞 《岩土力学》2004,25(Z2):375-378

根据地铁车站轨道结构的特点,利用集总参数法建立了轮轨竖向耦合振动模型;分析了新建地铁车站深基坑开挖过程中既有车站内的轮轨接触荷载对车站结构及其周围土层变形的影响.通过计算分析认为,列车荷载引起的结构变形在允许值的7 %范围以内,引起的地面沉降在允许值的3 %范围以内.  相似文献   

Exhumation rates and age of metamorphism in the Sanbagawa belt: new constraints from zircon fission track analysis     

S. Wallis  Y. Moriyama  T. Tagami 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2004,22(1):17-24

Zircon fission track dating and track length analysis in the high‐grade part of the Asemigawa region of the Sanbagawa belt demonstrates a simple cooling history passing through the partial annealing zone at 63.2 ± 5.8 (2 σ) Ma. Combining this age with previous results of phengite and amphibole K–Ar and ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating gives a cooling rate of between 6 and 13 °C Myr^?1, which can be converted to a maximum exhumation rate of 0.7 mm year^?1 using the known shape of the P–T path. This is an order of magnitude lower than the early part of the exhumation history. In contrast, zircon fission track analyses in the low‐grade Oboke region show that this area has undergone a complex thermal history probably related to post‐orogenic secondary reheating younger than c. 30 Ma. This event may correlate with the widespread igneous activity in south‐west Japan around 15 Ma. The age of subduction‐related metamorphism in the Oboke area is probably considerably older than the generally accepted range of 77–70 Ma.  相似文献   

Nuclear Waste Disposal Simulations: Couplex Test Cases     

H. Hoteit  Ph. Ackerer  R. Mosé 《Computational Geosciences》2004,8(2):99-124

We give some results obtained for the Couplex test cases proposed by the ANDRA. In this paper our aim is twofold. Firstly, to compute the release of nuclides out of the repository by concentrating on the 3D near field (Couplex 2). The simulation of the transport phenomena takes into account the dissolution of the glass containers and congruent emissions of the radio-nuclides including filiation chains and some simplified chemistry. Secondly, it is to use the near field computations in order to simulate the nuclide migrations in a 2D far field (Couplex 3). Coupling in between the two simulations takes into consideration the periodicity of the disposal modules and the geometry of the repository described in Couplex 1. The mixed finite element and discontinuous Galerkin methods are used to solve the convection–diffusion equations. In order to handle the nonlinear precipitation/dissolution term, we developed a new iterative technique that combines Picard and Newton–Raphson methods.  相似文献   

Simulation of Orissa Super Cyclone (1999) using PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model     

U. C. Mohanty  M. Mandal  S. Raman 《Natural Hazards》2004,31(2):373-390

In this study a non-hydrostatic version of Penn State University (PSU) -- NationalCenter for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) mesoscale model is used to simulate thesuper cyclonic storm that crossed Orissa coast on 29 October 1999. The model isintegrated up to 123 h for producing 5-day forecast of the storm. Several importantfields including sea level pressure, horizontal wind and rainfall are compared with theverification analysis/observation to examine the performance of the model. The modelsimulated track of the cyclone is compared with the best-fit track obtained from IndiaMeteorological Department (IMD) and the track obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The model is found to perform reasonably well in simulating the track and in particular, the intensity of the storm.  相似文献   

Systematic analysis of crustal anisotropy along the Karadere–Düzce branch of the North Anatolian fault     

Zhigang Peng  Yehuda Ben-Zion 《Geophysical Journal International》2004,159(1):253-274

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西藏松西地区辉绿玢岩岩石化学、地球化学特征及构造环境     

钟华明  王贵生  夏军  童劲松  鲁如魁 《安徽地质》2005,15(3):170-174

青藏高原南羌塘石炭纪-二叠世地层中侵入大量的辉绿玢岩岩墙群，其侵位时代为晚古生代。区域资料显示，这一时期该地区处于冈瓦纳大陆北部边缘。岩石化学、地球化学特征表明，辉绿玢岩与洋脊型、洋岛型及典型的大陆裂谷玄武岩都有明显区别，显示出大陆拉张带（或初始裂谷）的拉斑玄武岩特征。辉绿玢岩是冈瓦纳被动陆缘在晚古生代裂解的产物。  相似文献   

An attempt to estimate isotropic and anisotropic lateral structure of the Earth by spectral inversion incorporating mixed coupling   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Hitoshi Oda 《Geophysical Journal International》2005,160(2):667-682

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