On seasonal approach to flood frequency modelling. Part II: flood frequency analysis of Polish rivers     

K. Kochanek  W. G. Strupczewski  E. Bogdanowicz 《水文研究》2012,26(5):717-730

The annual peak flow series of Polish rivers are mixtures of summer and winter flows. As Part II of a sequence of two papers, practical aspects of applicability of seasonal approach to flood frequency analysis (FFA) of Polish rivers are discussed. Taking A Two‐Component Extreme Value (TCEV1) model as an example it was shown in the first part that regardless of estimation method, the seasonal approach can give profit in terms of upper quantile estimation accuracy that rises with the return period of the quantile and is the greatest for no seasonal variation. In this part, an assessment of annual maxima (AM) versus seasonal maxima (SM) approach to FFA was carried out with respect to seasonal and annual peak flow series of 38 Polish gauging stations. First, the assumption of mutual independence of the seasonal maxima has been tested. The smoothness of SM and AM empirical probability distribution functions was analysed and compared. The TCEV1 model with seasonally estimated parameters was found to be not appropriate for most Polish data as it considerably underrates the skewness of AM distributions and upper quantile values as well. Consequently, the discrepancies between the SM and AM estimates of TCEV1 are observed. Taking SM and TCEV1 distribution, the dominating season in AM series was confronted with predominant season for extreme floods. The key argument for presumptive superiority of SM approach that SM samples are more statistically homogeneous than AM samples has not been confirmed by the data. An analysis of fitness to SM and AM of Polish datasets made for seven distributions pointed to Pearson (3) distribution as the best for AM and Summer Maxima, whereas it was impossible to select a single best model for winter samples. In the multi‐model approach to FFA, the tree functions, i.e., Pe(3), CD3 and LN3, should be involved for both SM and AM. As the case study, Warsaw gauge on the Vistula River was selected. While most of AM elements are here from winter season, the prevailing majority of extreme annual floods are the summer maxima. The upper quantile estimates got by means of classical annual and two‐season methods happen to be fairly close; what's more they are nearly equal to the quantiles calculated just for the season of dominating extreme floods. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

叠加变形有限应变分解及其应用探讨     

王涛  王晓霞 《地球科学与环境学报》1991,(4)

本文提出了二维不同类型叠加变形的有限应变分解方法。只要测定有限应变及能代表各期主应变面的面理或剪切指向,就可以计算出各期构造应变。  相似文献   

Mutual Potential of Homogeneous Polyhedra   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Robert A. Werner  Daniel J. Scheeres 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2005,91(3-4):337-349

The mutual gravitational potential between a pair of homogeneous polyhedra is expressed using an infinite series. The nested volume integrals are evaluated analytically and result in simple tensor expressions containing no special functions. However, complexity increases as O(6 ⁿ ), where n is the term degree. An alternate formulation due to Liebenthal is also presented.  相似文献   

Extension of the Griffith's fracture criteria to saturated clays     

K.M. Dgu  M. Souli  B. Ladanyi 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2003,27(4):275-288

Inglis [1] has solved the problem of distribution of stress in an elastic plate around an elliptical hole. His works clarify the role of cracks in the failure of an elastic material. However, his solution cannot be applied to saturated clay because he considers only total stresses, while, in saturated clay, the criterion of rupture should be expressed in terms of effective and not total stresses. The solution of Atkinson and Craster [2] using Biot's poroelasticity theory, shows that there is no high pore pressure in the vicinity of the crack tips for saturated clay. The major difference between this approach and the Biot's theory of is that, in saturated clay, strain is a function of the variation of the effective stress [3], while, in poroelastic media, strain is only a function of the variation of the total stress [4, Equation 2.2]. Also in their solution there is continuity between the pore fluid and the inner fluid in the crack. Their solution is valid for poroelastic media involving a movement of the pore fluid. In our solution there is no movement of the pore fluid (Undrained condition). In this paper we have solved the same problem as Inglis [1], but for the particular case of saturated clay obeying elastic law. By solving this problem we obtained the expressions for pore pressure, effective stress, total stress and displacements. The results show that not only the total stress but also the pore pressure and the effective stress are also high in the vicinity of the crack tips. A new failure criterion, based on Griffith's strain energy principle [5] and maximum tensile stress [6], valid for saturated clay is developed in this paper. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Effects of topography on the spatial distribution of evapotranspiration over a complex terrain using two‐source energy balance model with ASTER data     

H. K. Kafle  Y. Yamaguchi 《水文研究》2009,23(16):2295-2306

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基于2维行程的栅格数据快速动态压缩算法     

吴正升  宋玮  王秀莲 《测绘科学技术学报》2007,24(3):207-209

分析了常规2维行程压缩算法存在的不足,在此基础上提出了一种在遍历栅格数据过程中直接快速动态生成2维行程的栅格数据压缩算法.该算法以MD码代替行列号来扫描栅格数据,对于一个2×2的窗口由MD码反解行列号只需转换左上角格网单元,同时以动态线性表代替静态线性表.在提取栅格单元的过程中,直接检测对比格网单元的属性值,动态分配内存来建立2维行程编码.最后,大量实验表明,算法在运行效率和内存占有量方面均优于常规的2维行程压缩算法.  相似文献   

一种沟灌累积入渗量简化计算方法     

聂卫波  费良军  马孝义 《水科学进展》2015,26(6):801-810

为简化沟灌二维累积入渗量的数值计算,采用理论分析和数值模拟相结合的方法,研究分析了土壤初始含水率、入渗水深、沟底宽、边坡系数、土壤质地和容重等因素对沟灌边界效应和拟合系数γ的影响,并建立了系数γ与主要影响因素间的函数关系式,提出了沟灌累积入渗量简化计算方法.结果表明,土壤初始含水率、沟底宽和边坡系数对沟灌边界效应的影响较小,而入渗水深、土壤质地和容重对沟灌边界效应的影响显著;拟合系数γ主要与入渗水深的变化有关,随入渗水深的增大呈现减小趋势,但对初始含水率、沟底宽、边坡系数、土壤质地和容重等因素变化的敏感性较低,可忽略其影响;建立了估算拟合系数γ的计算式,结合已有文献资料对其可靠性进行了验证,结果表明黏壤土和砂壤土不同入渗时间内,其沟灌累积入渗量计算值与实测值和HYDRUS软件模拟值具有高的一致性,说明文中所建公式估算拟合系数γ值可靠.研究结果可为简化沟灌累积入渗量的数值计算提供理论依据和技术支撑.  相似文献   

热带气旋过台湾后再次登陆的路径强度变化统计分析     

邢蕊  徐晶  林瀚 《气象》2020,46(4):517-527

登陆台湾后再次登陆大陆的热带气旋(TC)由于受复杂下垫面及中低纬天气系统的共同影响,过岛后在海峡内的路径、强度及结构变化复杂,导致登陆大陆的精确化定位、定强及预报难度大。分析了1949—2017年二次登陆的81个热带气旋路径及强度变化特征,并对上海台风所(CMA/STI)、美国联合台风警报中心(JTWC)及东京区域台风中心(RSMC-Tokyo)的热带气旋最佳路径数据中过岛热带气旋的定位定强进行对比分析。结果表明:二次登陆大陆热带气旋强度以减弱为主,少数热带气旋在海峡内增强;过岛后热带气旋路径多数会发生明显偏折,但三家最佳路径资料判断的偏折趋势不一致;由于热带气旋过岛时结构遭到破坏,定位定强难度增大,导致三个业务中心对其定位定强的差异较大,这种不确定性增大了其路径和强度监测预报的难度。  相似文献   

江西省“三农”服务专项建设现状与思考   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

杨爱萍  林秋  蔡哲  刘文英  姚俊萌  郭瑞鸽 《气象与减灾研究》2015,38(2):59-63

通过对江西省24个"三农"服务专项建设实施地的"两个体系"建设情况开展实地调查,分析了江西省"三农"服务专项建设在提高气象为农服务现代化、促进气象工作政府化、惠民利民等三方面取得的成效,总结了各地的建设内容、成功经验、工作亮点和特色,梳理了存在的问题,并结合建设现状和有关要求,对今后江西省"三农"服务专项建设提出了六个方面的具体建议。  相似文献   

AN ACCURATE MODEL FOR CALCULATING CORRECTION OF PATH FLEXURE OF SATELLITE SIGNALS     

Li Yanxing  Hu Xinkang  Shuai Ping  Zhang Zhongfu 《大地测量与地球动力学》2003,23(Z1)

1　IntroductionTherefractionoflight electronicsignalpropa gatinginatmospherehasbeenstudiedbymanysci entistsandsomemodelofatmosphericrefractioncorreetionhaveheenestablished ,includingHopfieldSaastamoinen,DavisandMarinimodels[1 ] .Butthesemodelscanbeusedonlytocalculatethecorrec tionfortherefractionduetoatmosphericdensityvariation ,whilethecorrectionfortherefractionduetothesignalpathflexurecannotbecalculated .Hop fieldhasestimatedsignalpathflexureerrorbythemethodofraytracing[2 ] ,butastrictcorr…  相似文献