长江中下游旱涝中期预报方法及其业务应用   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

金荣花  李月安  晁淑懿  任金声 《气象》2004,30(12):47-52

介绍了双层多因子综合相似的长江中下游旱涝中期预报模型。该模型引入了具有明确动力学和热力学意义的地转西风动量经向输送和经向温度梯度诊断量，同时强调了西太平洋副热带高压对长江中下游夏季降水的关键作用，并考虑了对流层中、低层500hPa高度和850hPa温度的大尺度环流背景场。与过去业务应用的单层相似预报模型相比较，不仅物理意义和天气学含义明确，而且更符合对具有复杂动力和热力机制的降水预报的考虑。5年的预报试验和业务应用结果表明，该方法对长江中下游地区旱涝的中期趋势预报有较好的预报能力。  相似文献   

2003 - 08 - 24 咸阳市大暴雨过程分析          下载免费PDF全文

王索民  李祥林 《山西气象》2004,(3):7-9

利用高空、地面天气图、红外云图、多普勒雷达图等资料对临汾市2004年6月16日局地降雹的天气背景、形势演变、层结稳定度、云图和雷达回波等变化特征进行了综合分析，结合以往冰雹预报经验对新一代雷达的探测能力进行了初步检验。分析发现，这次降雹过程属典型的西北冷涡影响型，此类型降雹相对于西北气流型和西风槽型降雹具有其自身特征；从多普勒速度图上，可分析出降雹过程中飑线前后较明显的中尺度天气系统。  相似文献   

一次强暴雨形成的动力机制   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

官元红  周伟灿  张兴强 《南京气象学院学报》2004,27(6):728-734

分析了1998年7月武汉强暴雨的天气演变特征，并从理论上探讨了强暴雨形成的动力机制。结果表明：低空急流先于暴雨生成，暴雨最强时低空急流也最强；高空急流入口区右侧及低空急流左侧非热成风梯度的存在，使得中尺度不稳定波的波振幅出现空间不稳定现象，高空急流右侧不稳定波的波振幅和低空急流左侧不稳定波的波振幅向暴雨区增加，暴雨区恰为这两支波叠加后振幅最大的区域，高低空急流耦合下的非热成风、中尺度对流-对称不稳定可能是这类强暴雨产生的动力原因之一。  相似文献   

某水电站地下厂房硐室群岩爆预测与防治研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

李攀峰  张倬元  刘宏  宋建波 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2004,15(2):39-43

拟建某水电站的大型地下厂房硐室群处于中等偏高的地应力环境中，在前期的勘探过程中已发现一些与岩爆密切相关的地质现象。因此合理地评价其开挖过程中岩爆发生的可能性、岩爆的烈度、分布范围以及相应的预测防治措施具有重要的工程意义。基于此，文章首先从岩爆发生的基本条件、地质宏观评价的角度对硐室群施工过程中岩爆发生的可能性进行了评估；然后，分别采用定性方法和工程地质类比法对该地下硐室群岩爆发生的烈度进行了评价；进而根据三维有限元模拟结果对岩爆发生的部位进行了圈定。最后，针对所研究的地下硐室群的具体情况，提出了相应的防治措施，即加强监测和超前预报，并采用以围岩弱化为主，围岩强化为辅的治理措施。  相似文献   

Effects of temperature and humidity upon the transport of sedimentary particles by wind   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Cheryl McKenna Neuman 《Sedimentology》2004,51(1):1-17

Wind tunnel simulations of aeolian transport carried out over a range in mean temperature between 32 °C and ?9 °C suggest that cold airflows support higher mass transport rates (Q) than very warm air. The magnitude of this increase is larger than expected, so that analytical and semi‐empirical models underestimate Q. Extrapolation of the results suggests that, at ?40 °C, as for example in the dry valleys of Antarctica in winter, Q may be as much as 70% higher than for the equivalent wind speed in hot deserts at air temperatures of 40 °C. Temperature‐dependent changes in air density and turbulence contribute to this result. The decreased tension of water adsorbed onto particle surfaces at low temperatures is postulated to reduce interparticle cohesion and, thus, to increase the elasticity of particle impacts on cold beds. Definition of the roles that temperature and humidity play in aeolian transport is relevant to studies of palaeoenvironmental reconstruction and extraterrestrial (or planetary) geology. Investigation of present‐day, cold climate features and of climate change effects also requires knowledge of these fundamental relations.  相似文献   

利用遥感综合分析西风引导气流与地形对沙尘运移路径的影响   总被引：2，自引：7，他引：2  

刘志丽  马建文  张仁健  王志刚  哈斯巴干  李启青 《中国沙漠》2004,24(3):330-334

沙尘暴的发生受大气环流、地表状况、降雨的影响，还受到局部地区地形的影响。一次规模较大的沙尘暴过程，沙尘可以从蒙古国和我国西部沙源地输送到我国东部、韩国、日本乃至夏威夷、美国西海岸。中日亚洲沙尘暴ADEC项目对亚洲沙尘暴的起沙、传输和降落的运行机制已经作了深入的研究，并建立了亚洲沙尘暴的数值模拟系统。本文以影响北京地区的沙尘暴事件为例，利用遥感技术，综合DEM地形数据和地面实测数据分析西风引导气流和地形对沙尘运移路径影响，将MODIs影像数据和DEM地形数据以及地面观测站点实测数据相结合，进行综合分析，结果表明在一次沙尘暴过程中，沙尘在运移过程中的运移路径明显地受到西风引导气流、沙尘粒子自然沉降规律以及局部地形的影响，要预防(减少)北京地区的沙尘暴仅仅作好北京地区的生态环境建设是不够的，加强北京周边地区，尤其是张家口地区、官厅水库库区及库区周围地区的生态环境建设尤为重要。  相似文献   

自动风向转换程序设计思路          下载免费PDF全文

李鸿飞  程波范  郝惠平  姜子明  武志跃  刘小伟 《山西气象》2005,(2):43-46

由于OSSMO 2004版地面测报业务软件中抄录报表风向不太方便，故长治县气象局自行设计了自动风向角度和方位的转换程序。本程序用OBJECT PASCAL语言编写，在DELPHI中实现，采用Microsoft．Jet．OLEDB．4．0数据库引擎及ADO的方式操作数据库。  相似文献   

Seasonal Variation of the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet and Its Association with the Heating Field over East Asia   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

KUANG Xueyuan  ZHANG Yaocun 《大气科学进展》2005,22(6):831-840

The structure and seasonal variation of the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet （EAWJ） and associations with heating fields over East Asia are examined by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Obvious differences exist in the westerly jet intensity and location in different regions and seasons due to the ocean-land distribution and seasonal thermal contrast, as well as the dynamic and thermodynamic impacts of the Tibetan Plateau. In winter, the EAWJ center is situated over the western Pacific Ocean and the intensity is reduced gradually from east to west over the East Asian region. In summer, the EAWJ center is located over the north of the Tibetan Plateau and the jet intensity is reduced evidently compared with that in winter. The EAWJ seasonal evolution is characterized by the obvious longitudinal inconsistency of the northward migration and in-phase southward retreat of the EAWJ axis. A good correspondence between the seasonal variations of EAWJ and the meridional differences of air temperature （MDT） in the mid-upper troposphere demonstrates that the MDT is the basic reason for the seasonal variation of EAWJ. Correlation analyses indicate that the Kuroshio Current region to the south of Japan and the Tibetan Plateau are the key areas for the variations of the EAWJ intensities in winter and in summer, respectively. The strong sensible and latent heating in the Kuroshio Current region is closely related to the intensification of EAWJ in winter. In summer, strong sensible heating in the Tibetan Plateau corresponds to the EAWJ strengthening and southward shift, while the weak sensible heating in the Tibetan Plateau is consistent with the EAWJ weakening and northward migration.  相似文献   

Numerical Simulation of Wind and Temperature Fields over Beijing Area in Summer   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

HU Xiaoming  LIU Shuhu  WANG Yingchun  LI Ju 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2005,19(1):120-127

1. IntroductionThe basic role of urban-rural boundary layer re-search is to study all kinds of physical process changesin the atmosphere boundary layer over urban and itssurrounding areas. Urban heat island (UHI) is a well-known feature of urban-rural climate. Attempts toincrease the understanding of the causes of the UHIand other urban-rural boundary layer phenomena haveused observational, theoretical and modelling methodssince long before. Seaman (1989) used a hydrostaticmodel, with real …  相似文献   

A precise monitoring of snow surface height in the region of Lambert Glacier basin-Amery Ice Shelf,East Antarctica   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

I.Allison 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2005,48(1):100-111

The net surface snow accumulation on the Antarctic ice sheet is determined by a combination of precipitation, sublimation and wind redistribution. We present a one-year record of hourly snow-height measurements at LGB69 (70°50'S, 77°04'E, 1850 m a.s.l.). east side of Lambert Glacier basin (LGB), and 4 year record at G3 (70°53'S, 69°52'E, 84 m a.s.l.), Amery Ice Shelf (AIS). The measurements were made with ultrasonic sensors mounted on automatic weather stations installed at two sites. The snow accumulation at LGB69 is approximately 70 cm. Throughout the winter, between April and September, there was little change in surface snow height (SSH) at the two sites. The negative SSH change is due to densification at LGB69, and is due to both ablation and densification at G3. The strongest accumulation at two sites occurred during the period between October and March (accounting for 101.6% at LGB69), with four episodic increasing events occurring during 2002 for LGB69, and eight events during 1999-2002 for G  相似文献