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151.
Brazil's nationally determined contribution (NDC) pledged under the Paris Agreement has marked a new stage in its climate policy towards strengthening low-carbon economic development beyond the recent drastic cuts in emissions from deforestation. Brazil especially means to limit oil consumption driven by future economic growth and to increase energy efficiency and biofuel use in the transport sector. On the other hand, Brazil still aspires to become a major petroleum province given its huge reserves of ‘pre-salt’ oil. This article aims to clarify under what conditions low-carbon economic development and oil exploration can possibly be combined in Brazil and what would be the energy system, environmental and macroeconomic implications of enabling policies for doing so. To address these questions, an energy–economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Brazilian economy is used to simulate alternative scenarios up to 2030. The results first show that implementing the most recent energy plans, which take into account the new economic reality in Brazil, should lead to over 20% lower domestic CO2 emissions in 2030 than the indicative NDC target, and to the export of the bulk of newfound crude oil. Second, with the same level of oil production, deeper domestic decarbonization, triggered by additional carbon pricing and sustainable efficiency measures, appears achievable with very small gross domestic product (GDP) loss and maximum oil exports, while being aligned with a 2°C emission pathway. However, (i) extra oil exports may induce net additional emissions outside Brazil and be seen as a perverse incentive and (ii) the economic growth strategy based on high oil exports may hinder the necessary diversification of the Brazilian economy.
Key policy insights
Low-carbon development goals will strongly interact with oil policy in Brazil.
The 2030 NDC target should be easy to achieve considering the new economic reality in Brazil.
Deeper domestic decarbonization is achievable with very limited GDP loss and significant oil exports, while being aligned with a 2°C emission pathway.
A broad strategic vision is needed to reconcile climate policy, energy policy and other economic development objectives.
152.
Jinshui Liu Shuai Li Kaifei Liao Yuchi Cui Lei Shao Peijun Qiao Yi Lu Yuanli Hou Thian Lai Goh Yongjian Yao 《海洋学报(英文版)》2023,42(3):89-100
Both Pinghu and Huagang formations are important hydrocarbon reservoirs of the Xihu Depression in the East China Sea Shelf Basin. Clarifying the source suppliers and restoring source-to-sink transport routes are of great significance to the future petroleum and gas undertakings. Previous researchers were largely confined by either limitation of geological records, highly dependence on a singular method or low-precision dating techniques. Our study integrated heavy mineral assemblages, geochemica... 相似文献
153.
Zhi Ding Fenzhen Su Yanan Chen Ying Liu Xue Feng Wenqiu Hu Fengqin Yan He Li Pujia Yu Xuguang Tang 《海洋学报(英文版)》2023,42(2):163-174
Increasing intense human activities have largely changed the coastal landscape and caused many environmental issues. However, whether human-induced activities could change the coastal land use gradient pattern, an important coastal zonal characteristic along the sea–land direction, remains unclear. Manila Bay was selected as the study area in this work. According to the distance of the land use and land cover(LULC) to the coastline, we clustered the typical coastal land use sequence patterns(CLU... 相似文献
154.
Arti Thanki Hirendrasinh Padhiyar Nitin Kumar Singh Manish Yadav Johnson Christian 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2023,51(3):2100336
Moringa oleifera (MO), also known as drumstick tree, has gained worldwide attention among researchers and policy makers, for showing its remarkable potential in environmental management. Recently, MO seed or press cake (a by-product of oil extraction industry) powder has also emerged as an alternative and promising coagulant for environmental remediation. In this view, attempts have been made in this study to evaluate the efficacy of MO seed and press cake powder (MSP & PCP) for the treatment of municipal wastewater. Both MSP and PCP are characterized by using swelling ratio, scanning and transmission electron microscopy analysis. The effect of various operational parameters such as coagulation–flocculation pH (2–10), coagulant dosage (0.1–1 g L−1), and sedimentation time (0–180 min), etc., is investigated to understand the potential of MSP and PCP. At optimized operational conditions, sedimentation kinetics is also performed suggesting that the treatment process is being governed by the second-order kinetic model. The chemical and biological oxygen demand removals at optimized conditions are observed as follows: ≈38 and ≈73% for MSP and ≈47 and ≈85% for PCP. Overall, the results of the present study elucidated that PCP can be employed as a promising alternative of MSP for municipal wastewater with improved treatment efficiencies. 相似文献
155.
An understanding of the behavior of cohesive sediment is required to solve various engineering problems such as scour around bridge elements, mitigation of soil erosion, pavement design, river bed degradation,stable channel design. Pavement foundation designers principally use the California bearing ratio(CBR)to describe the subgrade and subbase materials and their strength. Several laboratory experiments were done to study the variation in the CBR of cohesive mixtures comprised of clay-gravel m... 相似文献
156.
Z. W. Kundzewicz V. Krysanova R. Dankers Y. Hirabayashi S. Kanae F. F. Hattermann 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(1):1-14
This paper interprets differences in flood hazard projections over Europe and identifies likely sources of discrepancy. Further, it discusses potential implications of these differences for flood risk reduction and adaptation to climate change. The discrepancy in flood hazard projections raises caution, especially among decision makers in charge of water resources management, flood risk reduction, and climate change adaptation at regional to local scales. Because it is naïve to expect availability of trustworthy quantitative projections of future flood hazard, in order to reduce flood risk one should focus attention on mapping of current and future risks and vulnerability hotspots and improve the situation there. Although an intercomparison of flood hazard projections is done in this paper and differences are identified and interpreted, it does not seems possible to recommend which large-scale studies may be considered most credible in particular areas of Europe.
EDITOR D. KoutsoyiannisASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned 相似文献
157.
Adam P. Piotrowski Maciej J. Napiorkowski Jaroslaw J. Napiorkowski Marzena Osuch Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(4):606-625
In recent years sampling approaches have been used more widely than optimization algorithms to find parameters of conceptual rainfall–runoff models, but the difficulty of calibration of such models remains in dispute. The problem of finding a set of optimal parameters for conceptual rainfall–runoff models is interpreted differently in various studies, ranging from simple to relatively complex and difficult. In many papers, it is claimed that novel calibration approaches, so-called metaheuristics, outperform the older ones when applied to this task, but contradictory opinions are also plentiful. The present study aims at calibration of two simple lumped conceptual hydrological models, HBV and GR4J, by means of a large number of metaheuristic algorithms. The tests are performed on four catchments located in regions with relatively similar climatic conditions, but on different continents. The comparison shows that, although parameters found may somehow differ, the performance criteria achieved with simple lumped models calibrated by various metaheuristics are very similar and differences are insignificant from the hydrological point of view. However, occasionally some algorithms find slightly better solutions than those found by the vast majority of methods. This means that the problem of calibration of simple lumped HBV or GR4J models may be deceptive from the optimization perspective, as the vast majority of algorithms that follow a common evolutionary principle of survival of the fittest lead to sub-optimal solutions. 相似文献
158.
Hèou Maléki Badjana Manfred Fink Jörg Helmschrot Bernd Diekkrüger Sven Kralisch Abel Akambi Afouda 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(7):1094-1113
This paper discusses the analysis and modelling of the hydrological system of the basin of the Kara River, a transboundary river in Togo and Benin, as a necessary step towards sustainable water resources management. The methodological approach integrates the use of discharge parameters, flow duration curves and the lumped conceptual model IHACRES. A Sobol sensitivity analysis is performed and the model is calibrated by applying the shuffled complex evolution algorithm. Results show that discharge generation in three nested catchments of the basin is affected by landscape physical characteristics. The IHACRES model adequately simulates the rainfall–runoff dynamics in the basin with a mean modified Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency measure of 0.6. Modelling results indicate that parameters controlling rainfall transformation to effective rainfall are more sensitive than those routing the streamflow. This study provides insights into understanding the catchment’s hydrological system. Nevertheless, further investigations are required to better understand detailed runoff generation processes.
EDITOR M.C. Acreman; ASSOCIATE EDITOR N Verhoest 相似文献
159.
Rainfall–runoff models with different conceptual structures for the hydrological processes can be calibrated to effectively reproduce the hydrographs of the total runoff, while resulting in water budget components that are essentially different. This finding poses an open question on the reliability of rainfall–runoff models in reproducing hydrological components other than those used for calibration. In an effort to address this question, we use data from the Glafkos catchment in western Greece to calibrate and compare the ENNS model, a research-oriented lumped model developed for the river Enns in Austria developed for the river Enns in Austria, with the operational MIKE SHE model. Model performance is assessed in the light of the conceptual/structural differences of the modelled hydrological processes, using indices calculated independently for each year, rather than for the whole calibration period, since the former are stricter. We show that even small differences in the representation of hydrological processes may impact considerably on the water budget components that are not measured (i.e. not used for model calibration). From all water budget components, direct runoff exhibits the highest sensitivity to structural differences and related model parameters.
EDITOR M.C. AcremanASSOCIATE EDITOR S. Huang 相似文献
160.
Prediction of factors affecting water resources systems is important for their design and operation. In hydrology, wavelet analysis (WA) is known as a new method for time series analysis. In this study, WA was combined with an artificial neural network (ANN) for prediction of precipitation at Varayeneh station, western Iran. The results obtained were compared with the adaptive neural fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and ANN. Moreover, data on relative humidity and temperature were employed in addition to rainfall data to examine their influence on precipitation forecasting. Overall, this study concluded that the hybrid WANN model outperformed the other models in the estimation of maxima and minima, and is the best at forecasting precipitation. Furthermore, training and transfer functions are recommended for similar studies of precipitation forecasting. 相似文献