Comparing models of debris-flow susceptibility in the alpine environment   总被引：12，自引：3，他引：9  

Alberto Carrara  Giovanni Crosta  Paolo Frattini   《Geomorphology》2008,94(3-4):353

Debris-flows are widespread in Val di Fassa (Trento Province, Eastern Italian Alps) where they constitute one of the most dangerous gravity-induced surface processes. From a large set of environmental characteristics and a detailed inventory of debris flows, we developed five models to predict location of debris-flow source areas. The models differ in approach (statistical vs. physically-based) and type of terrain unit of reference (slope unit vs. grid cell). In the statistical models, a mix of several environmental factors classified areas with different debris-flow susceptibility; however, the factors that exert a strong discriminant power reduce to conditions of high slope-gradient, pasture or no vegetation cover, availability of detrital material, and active erosional processes. Since slope and land use are also used in the physically-based approach, all model results are largely controlled by the same leading variables.Overlaying susceptibility maps produced by the different methods (statistical vs. physically-based) for the same terrain unit of reference (grid cell) reveals a large difference, nearly 25% spatial mismatch. The spatial discrepancy exceeds 30% for susceptibility maps generated by the same method (discriminant analysis) but different terrain units (slope unit vs. grid cell). The size of the terrain unit also led to different susceptibility maps (almost 20% spatial mismatch). Maps based on different statistical tools (discriminant analysis vs. logistic regression) differed least (less than 10%). Hence, method and terrain unit proved to be equally important in mapping susceptibility.Model performance was evaluated from the percentages of terrain units that each model correctly classifies, the number of debris-flow falling within the area classified as unstable by each model, and through the metric of ROC curves. Although all techniques implemented yielded results essentially comparable; the discriminant model based on the partition of the study area into small slope units may constitute the most suitable approach to regional debris-flow assessment in the Alpine environment.  相似文献   

Magnitude–frequency relationships of debris flows and debris avalanches in relation to slope relief     

Oldrich Hungr  Scott McDougall  Mike Wise  Michael Cullen 《Geomorphology》2008,96(3-4):355

Probability of occurrence, hazard intensity and encounter probability are key parameters in the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of landslides. All are strongly dependent on magnitude of the landslides. As a result, magnitude–frequency analysis should be a part of QRA. Deriving representative magnitude–frequency relationships for debris avalanches and debris flows, however, is difficult. One key problem is illustrated with the example of a unique database from the coastal region of British Columbia, Canada, which was compiled entirely from detailed ground investigations. The magnitude of debris avalanches and debris flows is not an independent statistical quantity, but a function of the scale of a given slope, as characterized by the slope length. Thus, attempting to derive probability and magnitude for a given location or sub-region from a regionally-derived magnitude–frequency curve may lead to incorrect predictions. The same problem is pertinent to the application of the same approach to any type of landslide in which the largest combined dimension of the source volume (including entrainment) is of the same order as the length of the slope. It is recommended that greater emphasis be placed on site-specific geological observations, at the expense of generalized statistics.  相似文献   

中山市交通系统地震易损性分析     

杜鹏  聂树明  吴英琴  李晋 《华南地震》2010,30(4):48-54

交通系统地震易损性分析主要是针对系统中的道路、桥梁及路边建筑破坏的影响。分别采用经验统计法、单体桥梁分析方法、瓦砾堆积物计算方法得到了各自对应的道路路段通行概率,而这三个因素共同构成了道路路段的最终通行概率,通过Monte-Carlo算法即可得出交通系统连通可靠性。根据分析结果寻找薄弱环节,为制定相应的防震减灾对策提供依据。  相似文献   

Flow prediction in high altitude ungauged catchments: A case study in the Italian Alps (Pantano Basin,Adamello Group)     

D. Bocchiola  C. Mihalcea  G. Diolaiuti  B. Mosconi  C. Smiraglia  R. Rosso 《Advances in water resources》2010

We develop a simple model to evaluate the daily flow discharges in the ablation season for the 11 km² Pantano basin in the Retiche Italian Alps, based upon the data gathered during a three years field campaign. The Pantano basin embeds the Venerocolo debris covered and the Avio debris free glaciers, covering 2.14 km² in the Adamello Group, where the widest Italian glacier Adamello is located. First, degree-day models based upon air temperature are tuned to calculate snow and ice melt at daily scale. Glaciers’ meteorological data are collected from an automatic weather station (AWS), operating on the glacier during summer 2007. The melt factors in the debris covered areas of the glacier are estimated against debris thickness, using a data driven parameterization. The flow discharge from the catchment is estimated using semi distributed flow routing for the ablation seasons of four years, from 2006 to 2009. The predicted discharges are compared to those derived from inverse reservoir's routing at the Benedetto lake, catching the basin outflow. The proposed approach is valuable as a tool to investigate the hydrology of poorly gauged glacierized areas, including those with debris covered ice, widely diffused and yet poorly understood. Pending accurate parameterization the approach is usable for water resources evaluation and for long term assessment of the climate change impact on the glacierized areas within the Alps.  相似文献   

北京景区泥石流灾害灾情评估模型的建立与应用     

王海芝 《城市地质》2009,4(4):31-33

本文针对北京景区泥石流破坏的特点,确定其资源价值,生态环境、生命财产的损失为评价主体。采用层次分析法确定了各评价体系中评价因子的权重,建立了以加权求和法为计算基础的评价模型,并利用该模型对2002年发生于云蒙山景区的泥石流进行了灾情评估。  相似文献   

四川省都江堰市龙池地区泥石流危险性评价研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘清华  余斌  唐川  李丽 《地球科学进展》2012,27(6):670-677

汶川地震灾区震后泥石流灾害较震前活跃,对灾区泥石流危险性进行评价是灾后重建过程中合理防灾减灾的基础工作。通过研究泥石流灾害事件中的泥石流规模、泥石流沟堆积扇面积及相应的灾害损失等基础资料,提出以泥石流在泥石流沟堆积扇上的平均堆积厚度替代泥石流规模作为主要危险因子的单沟泥石流危险性评价方法。用该方法对汶川震区都江堰市龙池镇龙溪河流域2010年"8.13"泥石流事件中的29条沟谷型泥石流进行危险性评价,评价结果中9条为高度危险,12条为中度危险,8条为低度危险。用以泥石流规模为主要危险因子的单沟泥石流危险性评价方法进行对比评价,2种评价方法中有65.5%的泥石流的危险性评价结果一致。以泥石流沟堆积扇平均堆积厚度为主要危险因子的单沟泥石流危险性评价方法更能突出规模对泥石流综合危险度的贡献,能更好地反映小泥石流流域和小泥石流堆积扇的泥石流在中小规模的泥石流总量下的危险程度。  相似文献   

泥石流流域岩性的坚固系数与暴发频率的关系   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

鲁科  余斌  韩林  谢洪 《地球科学进展》2011,26(9):980-990

坚硬岩性地区的泥石流暴发频率较低在定性上基本可以概括岩性与泥石流暴发频率的关系,但目前还没有定量地描述岩性与泥石流暴发频率的关系。以四川省17个泥石流流域作为研究对象,通过现场调查研究泥石流形成区和堆积区粗化层颗粒的岩性、硬度以及泥石流的暴发频率,得出：①泥石流堆积区岩性组成特征基本可以代表形成区的岩性组成特征;②用地...  相似文献   

彭州市干溪沟流域地震诱发地质灾害成因分析     

魏云杰  鲍艳  李战鲁 《工程地质学报》2011,19(4):582-587

干溪沟属于湔江的支流,在大地构造部位上位于龙门山断褶带中段前缘,地貌上属于侵蚀构造地貌和河流地貌,切割深,降雨量丰富,河谷、河流较发育.由于人工开采矿石普遍,地质灾害较发育,典型的地质灾害主要有大白岩崩塌体、大团包滑坡体、干溪沟潜在泥石流.大白岩逆冲崩塌体是在汶川大地震发生时,映秀一北川断层发生逆冲,上盘灰岩错出山坡,...  相似文献   

四川夹金山王家山沟泥石流灾害特征及防治     

李华  彭勃 《城市地质》2013,8(2):25-27,48

王家山沟位于四川省阿坝藏族羌族自治州小金县达维乡境内,流域面积8.02km2,沟长5.14km,相对高度1614m,纵坡降314.0‰,沟内滑坡发育,形成泥石流的地形和松散固体物质条件充分;偶尔出现的高强度、短历时暴雨是泥石流形成的水源条件和激发因素。针对危害特征,对泥石流采取了以拦挡工程为主,辅以防护堤及生物措施的综合治理方案。  相似文献   

Impulsive force of debris flow on a curved dam   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

Chjeng-Lun SHIEH  Chia-Hsien TING  Hung-Wen PAN 《国际泥沙研究》2008,23(2):149-158

Although Sabo dams are an efficient method for river and basin management, traditional Sabo dams have a great impact on ecology and landscape. Moreover, such dams are hit and often damaged by great impulsive force when they block the debris flow. Therefore, alternative shapes for Sabo dam deserve thorough investigation. In this investigation, a curved dam was designed by changing the upstream-dam-surface geometric shape to reduce the impulsive force of the debris flow, with enhanced stability and reduced concrete mass being the anticipated outcomes. In this study, the flume and laboratory facilities simulated the impulsive force of the debris flow to the Sabo dams. Three geometric forms, including vertical, slanted and curved Sabo dams, were used to determine the impulsive force. Impulsive force theories of the debris flow were derived from the momentum equation and the Bernoulli equation. In these, the impulsive force was balanced by the friction force of the Sabo dam and the opposite force of the load cell behind the dam as it was hit by the debris flow. Positive correlations were found when comparing the experimental data with the theoretical results. These findings suggest that our impulsive force theory has predictive validity with regard to the experimental data. The results from both theory and experimental data clearly show that curved darns were sustained less force than the other darns under the same debris flow. This comparison demonstrates the importance of curved geometry for a well-designed Sabo dam.  相似文献